Louisville Cardinals
Conference: Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
Head Coach: Pat Kelsey overall (267-126)
Winthrop Eagles (189-95) (Big South)
Charleston Cougars (75-27) (Coastal Athletic)
1st Year at Louisville (6-4)
Schedule/Results (6-4)
11/4 vs MOREHEAD St W, 93-45
11/9 vs 12 TENNESSEE L, 77-55
11/19 vs BELLARMINE W, 100-68
11/22 vs WINTHROP W, 76-61
11/27 vs 14 Indiana (neutral) W, 89-61
11/28 vs West Virginia (neutral) W, 79-70
11/29 vs Oklahoma (neutral) L, 69-64
12/3 vs 23 OLE MISS L, 86-63
12/8 vs 9 DUKE L, 76-65
12/11 vs UTEP W, 77-74
12/14 @ 5 Kentucky: Rupp Arena (20,500)
Game Info: December 14 in Lexington, KY
Game time: 5:15pm EST
TV: ESPN (Dan Shulman & Jay Bilas)
Spectrum Cable: Channel 28 DISH Network: Channel 140
DirecTV: Channel 206 U-verse: Channel 1602
Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach & Jack Givens)
Radio Over the air: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Satellite radio: XM Channel 190, Internet Channel 960
Louisville broadcast: XM Channel 371
Probable Starters
#24 G Chucky Hepburn 6-2 190 Sr 14.1pts, 3.3reb, 4.8ast, 3.2stl, 32.6% 3fg
#6 G Reyne Smith 6-2 190 Sr 12.1pts, 3.1reb, 37.1% 3fg
#1 G J’Vonne Hadley 6-6 215 5th Yr Sr 9.8pts, 8.0reb, 1.8ast, 25.0% 3fg
#0 F James Scott 6-11 220 So 7.0pts, 5.8reb, 1.1ast, 0.0% 3fg
#93 F Noah Waterman 6-11 230 6th Ye Sr 6.2pts, 4.1reb, 1.0blk, 22.0% 3fg
Key Reserves
#5 G Terrence Edwards Jr. 6-6 205 5th Yr Sr 12.9pts, 3.2reb, 2.1ast, 26.1% 3fg
#9 F Khani Rooths 6-8 205 Fr 4.1pts, 3.3reb, 18.2% 3fg
#13 C Frank Anselem-Ibe 6-10 220 5th Yr Sr 0.3pts, 1.0reb, 0.0% 3fg
OUT #7 F Kasean Pryor 6-10 225 5th Yr Sr 12.0pts, 6.1reb, 2.1ast, 1.6stl, 15.2% 3fg
Team Statistics
Points per game 76.0
Points allowed 68.1
Scoring margin +7.9
Field goal pct .428
FG% allowed .422
3-point FG pct .282
3FG% allowed .329
Free throw pct .707
Rebounds per game 38.7
Rebounds allowed 34.7
Rebounding margin +4.0
Assists per game 13.6
Turnovers per game 13.3
Turnovers forced 15.6
Turnover margin +2.2
Assist/turnover ratio 1.0
Steals per game 8.0
Blocks per game 3.4
KenPom Analysis
Overall rating: #59
Offense: #79
Defense: #42
Best Numbers
Off 2pt%: #13
Def Non-Steal TO%: #24
Off Rebounding %: #35
Worst Numbers
Off 3pt%: #341 (27%)
Off Turnover%: #224
Def 3pt%: #213 (33.9%)
Off Effective FG%: #205
Analysis: Well, for many the biggest game of the year is here. It’s Kentucky. It’s Louisville. It’s ESPN. It’s Shulman and Bilas (and Rupp Arena soft serve ice cream will get a cameo). The state of Kentucky’s 2 most historic teams and 2 of the greatest programs in men’s college basketball. UK comes in sporting a #5 ranking in the latest AP poll, with a 9-1 overall record, with huge neutral site wins over Duke and Gonzaga. Louisville comes in with a 6-4 record with big neutral site wins over Indiana and West Virginia but 20+ point losses to Tennessee and Ole Miss, an 11pt loss to Duke and a close loss to Oklahoma on a neutral court. I didn’t realize it before I started preparing this, but this will be this Louisville team’s first true road game of the season.
Both teams have an injury or two that are significant. As we know, the Cats are definitely missing PG Kerr Kriisa for this game and could potentially be missing Lamont Butler if he’s not quite healed from his ankle injury. We’re all hoping he will be back for this game. Meanwhile, Louisville has lost starting forward Kasean Pryor a 6-10 225 5th Year Senior who was averaging 12.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals to a season-ending ACL injury. They are also missing Aboubacar Traore (broken arm) and Koren Johnson (shoulder). Traore was a starter to begin the season, though Johnson was not quite as important to the team. The Cardinals only played a total of 8 players in their last game versus UTEP, which they won 77-74, and big man Anselem-Ibe only played 5 minutes. So, it’s basically a 7-man rotation.
Those hoping for an absolute slaughter of Louisville in Rupp on Saturday afternoon may be disappointed, though we’re all hoping for domination. Even without these injured players, the Cardinals have been competitive against most everyone, Tennessee and Ole Miss not withstanding. Even against Duke, and without the players I’ve mentioned here, they still were competitive. In fact, they had a lead until about the 8-minute mark in that game when Duke finally began to assert itself and pushed a lead to double-digits and held a comfortable lead to the end.
Looking at Louisville, one thing that jumps out is that play hard on defensive every time down the floor and on offense they will shoot threes all day. They are actually accomplishing what Mark Pope wants UK to do. They’re averaging 30 threes a game. (31.8 to be exact). Problem is, they’re making less than 9 threes a game and shooting 27%. That makes them a very inefficient team. But the problem is, if those threes are falling, they are a threat.
Looking at personnel, the top scorer on the team is their point guard #24 Chucky Hepburn, a 6-2 190lb Senior averaging 14.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 3.2 steals, and shooting 33.3% from 3. He is leading the team in point, assists, and steals. He does a little bit of everything for the team. His backcourt mate is #6 shooting guard Reyne Smith, a 6-2 190lb Senior averaging 12.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, and shooting 37.1% from 3. He has shot 81 threes on the season, which is nearly double the number of attempts of anyone else on the team. The small forward is #1 J’Vonne Hadley a 6-6 215lb 5th Year Senior averaging 9.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and shoots 25.0% from 3. Down low, the Cards have a pair of 6-11 forwards starting. #0 James Scott is a 6-11 220lb Sophomore averaging 7.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and doesn’t shoot threes. The other starter was a player for Mark Pope last season at BYU. It’s #93 Noah Waterman a 6-11 230lb 6th Year Senior averaging 6.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.0 block, and shooting 22.0% from 3.
From the bench, the top scorer is #5 Guard Terrence Edwards Jr. a 6-6 205lb 5th Year Senior averaging 12.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and shooting 26.1% from 3. Honestly, Edwards is averaging more minutes than all but 2 of the starters, so we’ll be seeing quite a bit of him. He’s pretty much subs in for both the 2 and the 3, which is why he’s out there a lot. The other 2 bench guys are big men: #9 F Khani Rooths a 6-8 205lb Freshman averaging 4.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, and shooting 18.2% from 3 and #13 Frank Anselem-Ibe a 6-10 220lb 5th Year Senior who isn’t playing or contributing much.
I fully expect Louisville to be playing this game like their hair is on fire. As we heard from Terrence Edwards this week, this is their biggest game of the season and if Louisville fans had to pick one win for the season, this is it. He even said playing against UK is the only reason he signed with UL. They will be giving maximum effort all night. If we had our entire team, I’d say just run those 10 guys out there and wear these guys out, but if we’re missing Lamont Butler, I don’t think that would be an advisable strategy. UK has a bunch of better shooters than Louisville has, but that won’t stop the Cards from firing up 30+ from downtown. If those threes are falling at any decent percentage, it could be a tough game. If UK’s threes are falling like we know they can, it could become a dominant win for UK. What will happen? Haslametrics predicts UK 84 UL 70. EvanMiya projects UK 83 UL 70. Bart Torvik says UK 84- UL 73. KenPom predicts UK 83-UL 72. DRatings has UK winning 87-79.
My prediction: Kentucky 90 UofL 80
Conference: Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
Head Coach: Pat Kelsey overall (267-126)
Winthrop Eagles (189-95) (Big South)
Charleston Cougars (75-27) (Coastal Athletic)
1st Year at Louisville (6-4)
Schedule/Results (6-4)
11/4 vs MOREHEAD St W, 93-45
11/9 vs 12 TENNESSEE L, 77-55
11/19 vs BELLARMINE W, 100-68
11/22 vs WINTHROP W, 76-61
11/27 vs 14 Indiana (neutral) W, 89-61
11/28 vs West Virginia (neutral) W, 79-70
11/29 vs Oklahoma (neutral) L, 69-64
12/3 vs 23 OLE MISS L, 86-63
12/8 vs 9 DUKE L, 76-65
12/11 vs UTEP W, 77-74
12/14 @ 5 Kentucky: Rupp Arena (20,500)
Game Info: December 14 in Lexington, KY
Game time: 5:15pm EST
TV: ESPN (Dan Shulman & Jay Bilas)
Spectrum Cable: Channel 28 DISH Network: Channel 140
DirecTV: Channel 206 U-verse: Channel 1602
Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach & Jack Givens)
Radio Over the air: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Satellite radio: XM Channel 190, Internet Channel 960
Louisville broadcast: XM Channel 371
Probable Starters
#24 G Chucky Hepburn 6-2 190 Sr 14.1pts, 3.3reb, 4.8ast, 3.2stl, 32.6% 3fg
#6 G Reyne Smith 6-2 190 Sr 12.1pts, 3.1reb, 37.1% 3fg
#1 G J’Vonne Hadley 6-6 215 5th Yr Sr 9.8pts, 8.0reb, 1.8ast, 25.0% 3fg
#0 F James Scott 6-11 220 So 7.0pts, 5.8reb, 1.1ast, 0.0% 3fg
#93 F Noah Waterman 6-11 230 6th Ye Sr 6.2pts, 4.1reb, 1.0blk, 22.0% 3fg
Key Reserves
#5 G Terrence Edwards Jr. 6-6 205 5th Yr Sr 12.9pts, 3.2reb, 2.1ast, 26.1% 3fg
#9 F Khani Rooths 6-8 205 Fr 4.1pts, 3.3reb, 18.2% 3fg
#13 C Frank Anselem-Ibe 6-10 220 5th Yr Sr 0.3pts, 1.0reb, 0.0% 3fg
OUT #7 F Kasean Pryor 6-10 225 5th Yr Sr 12.0pts, 6.1reb, 2.1ast, 1.6stl, 15.2% 3fg
Team Statistics
Points per game 76.0
Points allowed 68.1
Scoring margin +7.9
Field goal pct .428
FG% allowed .422
3-point FG pct .282
3FG% allowed .329
Free throw pct .707
Rebounds per game 38.7
Rebounds allowed 34.7
Rebounding margin +4.0
Assists per game 13.6
Turnovers per game 13.3
Turnovers forced 15.6
Turnover margin +2.2
Assist/turnover ratio 1.0
Steals per game 8.0
Blocks per game 3.4
KenPom Analysis
Overall rating: #59
Offense: #79
Defense: #42
Best Numbers
Off 2pt%: #13
Def Non-Steal TO%: #24
Off Rebounding %: #35
Worst Numbers
Off 3pt%: #341 (27%)
Off Turnover%: #224
Def 3pt%: #213 (33.9%)
Off Effective FG%: #205
Analysis: Well, for many the biggest game of the year is here. It’s Kentucky. It’s Louisville. It’s ESPN. It’s Shulman and Bilas (and Rupp Arena soft serve ice cream will get a cameo). The state of Kentucky’s 2 most historic teams and 2 of the greatest programs in men’s college basketball. UK comes in sporting a #5 ranking in the latest AP poll, with a 9-1 overall record, with huge neutral site wins over Duke and Gonzaga. Louisville comes in with a 6-4 record with big neutral site wins over Indiana and West Virginia but 20+ point losses to Tennessee and Ole Miss, an 11pt loss to Duke and a close loss to Oklahoma on a neutral court. I didn’t realize it before I started preparing this, but this will be this Louisville team’s first true road game of the season.
Both teams have an injury or two that are significant. As we know, the Cats are definitely missing PG Kerr Kriisa for this game and could potentially be missing Lamont Butler if he’s not quite healed from his ankle injury. We’re all hoping he will be back for this game. Meanwhile, Louisville has lost starting forward Kasean Pryor a 6-10 225 5th Year Senior who was averaging 12.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals to a season-ending ACL injury. They are also missing Aboubacar Traore (broken arm) and Koren Johnson (shoulder). Traore was a starter to begin the season, though Johnson was not quite as important to the team. The Cardinals only played a total of 8 players in their last game versus UTEP, which they won 77-74, and big man Anselem-Ibe only played 5 minutes. So, it’s basically a 7-man rotation.
Those hoping for an absolute slaughter of Louisville in Rupp on Saturday afternoon may be disappointed, though we’re all hoping for domination. Even without these injured players, the Cardinals have been competitive against most everyone, Tennessee and Ole Miss not withstanding. Even against Duke, and without the players I’ve mentioned here, they still were competitive. In fact, they had a lead until about the 8-minute mark in that game when Duke finally began to assert itself and pushed a lead to double-digits and held a comfortable lead to the end.
Looking at Louisville, one thing that jumps out is that play hard on defensive every time down the floor and on offense they will shoot threes all day. They are actually accomplishing what Mark Pope wants UK to do. They’re averaging 30 threes a game. (31.8 to be exact). Problem is, they’re making less than 9 threes a game and shooting 27%. That makes them a very inefficient team. But the problem is, if those threes are falling, they are a threat.
Looking at personnel, the top scorer on the team is their point guard #24 Chucky Hepburn, a 6-2 190lb Senior averaging 14.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 3.2 steals, and shooting 33.3% from 3. He is leading the team in point, assists, and steals. He does a little bit of everything for the team. His backcourt mate is #6 shooting guard Reyne Smith, a 6-2 190lb Senior averaging 12.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, and shooting 37.1% from 3. He has shot 81 threes on the season, which is nearly double the number of attempts of anyone else on the team. The small forward is #1 J’Vonne Hadley a 6-6 215lb 5th Year Senior averaging 9.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and shoots 25.0% from 3. Down low, the Cards have a pair of 6-11 forwards starting. #0 James Scott is a 6-11 220lb Sophomore averaging 7.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and doesn’t shoot threes. The other starter was a player for Mark Pope last season at BYU. It’s #93 Noah Waterman a 6-11 230lb 6th Year Senior averaging 6.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.0 block, and shooting 22.0% from 3.
From the bench, the top scorer is #5 Guard Terrence Edwards Jr. a 6-6 205lb 5th Year Senior averaging 12.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and shooting 26.1% from 3. Honestly, Edwards is averaging more minutes than all but 2 of the starters, so we’ll be seeing quite a bit of him. He’s pretty much subs in for both the 2 and the 3, which is why he’s out there a lot. The other 2 bench guys are big men: #9 F Khani Rooths a 6-8 205lb Freshman averaging 4.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, and shooting 18.2% from 3 and #13 Frank Anselem-Ibe a 6-10 220lb 5th Year Senior who isn’t playing or contributing much.
I fully expect Louisville to be playing this game like their hair is on fire. As we heard from Terrence Edwards this week, this is their biggest game of the season and if Louisville fans had to pick one win for the season, this is it. He even said playing against UK is the only reason he signed with UL. They will be giving maximum effort all night. If we had our entire team, I’d say just run those 10 guys out there and wear these guys out, but if we’re missing Lamont Butler, I don’t think that would be an advisable strategy. UK has a bunch of better shooters than Louisville has, but that won’t stop the Cards from firing up 30+ from downtown. If those threes are falling at any decent percentage, it could be a tough game. If UK’s threes are falling like we know they can, it could become a dominant win for UK. What will happen? Haslametrics predicts UK 84 UL 70. EvanMiya projects UK 83 UL 70. Bart Torvik says UK 84- UL 73. KenPom predicts UK 83-UL 72. DRatings has UK winning 87-79.
My prediction: Kentucky 90 UofL 80
Last edited:
