Scouting Arkansas

[IL Wildcat]

Arkansas Razorbacks
Head Coach: Mike Anderson 295-154 (.629), 95-56 (.629) in 5th season at Arkansas

Current Record: 9-8, 8-2 at home (3-2 in SEC, 2-0 at home)
Schedule
11/13/15 SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY W 86-68
11/18/15 AKRON L 80-88
11/20/15 CHARLESTON SOUTHERN W 93-75
11/26/15 vs Georgia Tech L 73-83
11/27/15 vs Stanford L 66-69
12/01/15 NORTHWESTERN STATE W 117-78
12/04/15 at Wake Forest L 85-88
12/08/15 EVANSVILLE W 89-76
12/12/15 TENNESSEE TECH W 83-57
12/19/15 MERCER L o t 66-69
12/22/15 NORTH FLORIDA W 97-72
12/30/15 at Dayton L o t 81-85
* 01/02/16 at Texas A&M L 69-92
* 01/05/16 VANDERBILT Wot 90-85
* 01/09/16 MISSISSIPPI STATE W 82-68
* 01/12/16 at Mizzou W 94-61
* 01/16/16 at LSU L 74-76
*=conference game

Game info:
01/21/16 Kentucky at Arkansas, Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR, 7:00 EST, TV: ESPN

Probable Starters
F #55 Keaton Miles 6-7 212 Sr, 3.7pts, 3.2reb, 1.0ast, no 3pt threat
F #33 Moses Kingsley 6-10 230 Jr, 16.9pts, 9.4reb, 1.1ast, 2.8blks, no 3pt threat
G #3 Dusty Hannahs 6-3 203 Jr, 16.0pts, 2.1reb, 1.0ast, .478 3pt%
G #5 Anthlon Bell 6-3 185 Sr, 17.1pts, 2.9reb, 1.2ast, .474 3pt%
G #4 Jabril Durham 6-1 185 Sr, 6.6pts, 3.5reb, 7.2ast, .241 3pt%

Key Reserves
G #31 Anton Beard 6-0 195 So, 8.5pts, 2.1reb, 1.9ast, .458 3pt%
G #24 Jimmy Whitt 6-4 173 Fr, 7.5pts, 1.9reb, 1.5ast, .500 3pt%
G #21 Manuale Watkins 6-3 205 Jr, 6.1pts, 3.6reb, 2.5ast, no 3pt threat
F #1 Trey Thompson 6-9 260 So, 3.4pts, 4.5reb, 1.5ast, no 3pt threat
C #50 Willy Kouassi 6-10 230 Sr, 3.0pts, 2.5reb, no 3pt threat

Team Stats
Points per game 83.8
Points allowed 75.9
Scoring margin +7.9
Field goal pct .472
FG% allowed .438
3-point FG pct .447
3p% allowed .370
Free throw pct .724
Rebounds per game 38.0
Rebounds allowed 35.1
Rebounding margin +2.9
Assists per game 18.2
Turnovers per game 11.5
Turnovers forced 15.1
Turnover margin +3.6
Assist/turnover ratio 1.6
Steals per game 7.8
Blocks per game 5.6

KenPom Stats (Arkansas #49 overall)
Strengths:
#3 nationally in 3pt percentage at 44.7%
#12 nationally in block percentage at 15.2%
#16 nationally in ball protection (they don’t allow steals)

Weaknesses:
#285 in 3pt defense, allowing 37% from 3
#289 in FTA per FGA (they don’t get to the line)
#209 in effective FG% D (they give up easy shots)

Analysis:
Arkansas is one of those teams that is difficult to nail down. They have been very inconsistent this season. Most of their losses have been close games, with the exception of AT Texas A&M, which was a 23pt drubbing. 5 of their 9 losses have been by 4 points or less. Their best win was, according to KenPom, was a 5pt home win over Vanderbilt, followed by a 13pt home win over #35 Evansville. Their worst loss was to #138 Mercer at North Little Rock, AR, which was basically a home game.

When you look at Arkansas, you see a very typical Mike Anderson team. They play fast. They play a bunch of guys. They press full court the entire game. They want to run and gun. This particular team shoots the ball from 3pt range very well, 3rd best in the nation at 44.7% as a team. That’s ridiculous! They also block shots very well and they don’t turn it over. These are all excellent statistics, of course. So, what is their issue? Why are they 9-8? Well, when they play teams who can break a press and finish, they give up a lot of transition points. They’re barely in the top 100 defensively at this point (#99) and they’re #209 in effective fg%, allowing teams to shoot a high percentage.

Arkansas’ offense starts with their point guard, Jabril Durham, the 6-1 senior who doesn’t score much but dishes out 7.2 assists per game. He’s only shooting 24.1% from 3, but he still needs a close watch because of his passing ability. The leading scorer on the team is another guard, Anthlon Bell, a guy UK fans likely remember from the last few years. He’s a 6-3 shooting guard who can light it up from distance at 47.4%. He will shoot them from anywhere and at anytime, often in transition. The third guard has really come on strong this season- Dusty Hannahs- who is shooting a little better than Bell at 47.8% from 3. He’s also scoring 16.0 points per game and leads the team in 3pt and FT percentage. These guys will press, run, and gun. They are wanting to run Nolan Richardson’s “40 minutes of hell” defense, which tries to turn you over and outscore opponents by shooting as many threes as they can get up in the air. Consequently, they are never out of a game, being able to shoot themselves out of just about any hole, especially at Bud Walton Arena, where they have been tough, even in a down year.

Up front, Arkansas is led by Moses Kingsley, the 6-10 230lb junior, who is averaging 16.9 points per game, neck and neck with Bell and Hannahs. He blocks 2.8 shots per game and grabs 9.4 rebounds as well. So, he’s a key player for this team in multiple ways. The other starter in the frontcourt is Keaton Miles, who at 6-7 212 can run the floor and finish on the break. He’s not gonna beat you shooting the ball, though, and he only plays about 17 minutes per game and averages 3.7pts and 3.2 rebounds. He’s in the game to be another big, mobile body who can defend and run the floor.

Coming off the bench, Arkansas brings a bunch of other help. They play 10 guys pretty much every game. Anton Beard, Jimmy Whitt, and Manuale Watkins are the first 3 guys off the bench in minutes played, and it’s no surprise they’re all guards. Beard can and will shoot the three, and averages 8.5 points per game, which is 4th on the team. Whitt isn’t a shooter but he comes in for defense and because he’s good at finishing on the break in the open floor. Watkins is another good ball handler who gives Durham a breather. He’s second on the team in assists and is able to get to the rim and finish also, though he’s no 3pt shooter. After those guards, Arkansas has a couple big men who get some minutes as well. Trey Thompson is a 6-9 260 sophomore who plays about 17 minutes per game. He’s a strong guy who can rebound the ball well, and is second on the team at 4.5 rebounds per game in only 17 minutes. The other big guy is the 6-10 senior Willy Kouassi. He only plays 11.8 minutes per game, so we may not see much of him unless the Hogs get into foul trouble.

Well, this game will definitely test our mettle, especially after losing to Auburn. Truth be told, Arkansas is a better team than Auburn (most of the SEC is better, actually), and they are much more difficult to beat in Bud Walton Arena, as we all know too well. They are planning a white out for UK coming to town, the place will be sold out, and Hog fans are loud and rowdy. If our Cats thought Auburn was a tough road game, this one could be very painful if they come out flat. We must guard the three point line and we must not turn the ball over. I think we could run with them, but I don’t know if we want to get into that frantic back and forth with them that they are trying to force. They will press and they will trap. They want to speed up the game.

Now, truth be told, Arkansas plays a style that our team is well suited to play. Teams this season who have tried to force tempo on UK have usually ended up on the wrong side of the scoreboard. Our guards are very good at handling a press and our bigs can run the floor well and finish. On paper, this is a game UK should win. But this one is being played in Bud Walton Arena and most of our key players either haven’t played a game here at all or didn’t get into the game very much. Last year we played Arkansas in Lexington, so Ulis has never been to Fayetteville. Obviously, Briscoe and Murray haven’t, and neither has Skal, Matthews, or Mulder. Poythress has been there (in 2013 and 2014) and lost twice. Lee played 10 minutes and scored 1 point in Fayetteville in 2014. Nobody on UK’s team has won in Fayetteville. Calipari himself hasn’t won in Fayetteville as UK’s coach. So, this doesn’t add up to very good for the Cats. Which team is better? I think UK is definitely the better team. If this game were being played in Rupp, I’d pick UK by 7-8 points. But with UK not playing well and the game being played in Arkansas, I have to give the edge to the Hogs. I hope I’m wrong.

Prediction: Arkansas 80 UK 76

 

[jrpross]

They hit 45% of their threes already?? Good lord. They'll somehow go 20/18 against us.

 

[Smashcat]

They hit 45% of their threes already?? Good lord. They'll somehow go 20/18 against us.

haha

 

[Smashcat]

If this game were being played in Rupp, I’d pick UK by 7-8 points. But with UK not playing well and the game being played in Arkansas, I have to give the edge to the Hogs. I hope I’m wrong.
Our coaches have had more time than usual to prepare for this game. Fingers crossed we go there very focused and confident and play like we did at Bama.

 

[IL Wildcat]

If this game were being played in Rupp, I’d pick UK by 7-8 points. But with UK not playing well and the game being played in Arkansas, I have to give the edge to the Hogs. I hope I’m wrong.
Our coaches have had more time than usual to prepare for this game. Fingers crossed we go there very focused and confident and play like we did at Bama.

You know smashcat, I think the fact UK is due to have a good game, after a couple stinkers, is one of my hopes as well. The fact that they have a couple extra days of practice should also help.

 

[CharlieT71059]

We win by 36

 

[CharlieT71059]

Bahahaha we should win it, who the heck knows

 

[blueblood65]

I believe the Cats will be ready Thursday. We saw what happened after the embarrassment at LSU. They were more focused at Bama and I believe we see that team Thursday. GO CATS! UK 74 ARK 71......

 

[wildcatsboston1984]

They average 1.182 points per possession in transition, which ranks in the top 5%, 0.923 PPP in the half court, which ranks in the top 20%. Their top four offensive possession types are transition, spot up, cuts, and off screen rank excellent, very good, very good, and good. The Cats are going to have their work cut out for them on defense. Luckily they are worse against man defense than zone defense, but they are still a handful against man D

Kingsley, Bell, and Hannahs each rank in the top 6% for PPP at 1.121, 1.143, and 1.136. Rest of the players are nothing impressive.

Bell and Hannahs are absolute knock down shooters on spot ups at 1.139 and 1.271 PPP, rest of the squad ranks out as average at best on spot ups. Both rank good off screens at 1 point per possession. All of them rank very good or better or better on cuts. Average team in isolation but they only go iso on 8% of their possessions.

Moses Kingsley is the only player on the team with more than 20 post up possessions, but he ranks excellent posting up at 1.101 PPP. Whole team ranks average on putbacks, even Kingsley. So hopefully the lack of rebounding by the big, if it continues, won't result in easy putbacks.

They rank excellent at scoring off the pick and roll ball handler at 1.038 PPP, but the pick and roll only accounts for 7.7% of their possessions so they don't appear to run the P&R much


Stats based on Synergy Sports data

 

[Primedfor9]

I said it before the season and I'm sticking with it, I'll be shocked if Arkansas wins. UK by 11.

 

[wildcatsboston1984]

Defensively, Arkansas is in the bottom 40% of the nation, allowing 0.894 points per possession overall, 1.048 in transition, 0.851 in the half court, but their half four defense is in the upper half of the country

They are slightly better at zone defense, but they run man 82% of the time. Press defense in the top half, but the press generates a turnover on 20.9% of possessions and they run the press on a quarter of their defensive possessions. Luckily the Wildcats have a one-man press break.

They rank in the bottom 30% for spot ups, which accounts for 23.4% of their defensive possession, so could be a good game for Kentucky shooting. Somehow Arkansas defense on spot ups, relative to competition, is actually better on unguarded spot ups (top 25) than in guarded spot ups (bottom 6%). Since Murray likes to shoot guarded jumpers so much, he should love this matchup

Transition defense accounts for 21.7% of their defensive possession, and they are in the bottom 35% for that. Hopefully Kentucky will look to attack in transition a bit more to take advantage of this. Their iso D ranks as good as does their P&R roll man D, but Kentucky's P&R roll man is always awful anyways

Moses Kingsley as does the team rates out as average on post defense, giving up 0.81 and 0.83 PPP respectively. Could this be a game in which Skal could maybe get something going? Or will Poythress be able to ahve a good showing?

 

[Big Cat fan]

Lets see if Cal can coach up a team without having superstar talent. He can shut those haters up this season if he can turn this team around. If he is to do it he has to start beating these bad teams on the road. I think Ulis and Lee will have a big game. Kentucky must guard and not turn the ball over.

Ky-72-Ark-66

 

[kyjeff1]

I said it before the season and I'm sticking with it, I'll be shocked if Arkansas wins. UK by 11.

You'll be shocked? UK has lost to 4 very bad teams and now they are going to a program that can light it up. The game will be played in front of a jacked up crowd so prepare yourself to be shocked. I think UK can win but I will be far from shocked if UK loses.

 

[Bluesnky]

The bench will be very important. UK can't play anyone much more than 30 minutes in this one and would be well served if most players played less than that. In fact, I'd say only Ulis should play 30 minutes.

 

[docholiday51]

You'll be shocked? UK has lost to 4 very bad teams and now they are going to a program that can light it up. The game will be played in front of a jacked up crowd so prepare yourself to be shocked. I think UK can win but I will be far from shocked if UK loses.

Coach K said he'd be amazed and he is not amazed often

 

[docholiday51]

We don't have enough people who can score,if Murray can go all Pistol Pete on them and put up 50 we might have something,we have problems with teams that can score because we don't have enough options to match them

 

[westerncat]

Thanks IL Wildcat. I just hope we can get some help from our bigs. If they are not shows like they were at LSU we may be in for a long night. I look for a close game. Just want to win.

 

[IL Wildcat]

Defensively, Arkansas is in the bottom 40% of the nation, allowing 0.894 points per possession overall, 1.048 in transition, 0.851 in the half court, but their half four defense is in the upper half of the country

They are slightly better at zone defense, but they run man 82% of the time. Press defense in the top half, but the press generates a turnover on 20.9% of possessions and they run the press on a quarter of their defensive possessions. Luckily the Wildcats have a one-man press break.

They rank in the bottom 30% for spot ups, which accounts for 23.4% of their defensive possession, so could be a good game for Kentucky shooting. Somehow Arkansas defense on spot ups, relative to competition, is actually better on unguarded spot ups (top 25) than in guarded spot ups (bottom 6%). Since Murray likes to shoot guarded jumpers so much, he should love this matchup

Transition defense accounts for 21.7% of their defensive possession, and they are in the bottom 35% for that. Hopefully Kentucky will look to attack in transition a bit more to take advantage of this. Their iso D ranks as good as does their P&R roll man D, but Kentucky's P&R roll man is always awful anyways

Moses Kingsley as does the team rates out as average on post defense, giving up 0.81 and 0.83 PPP respectively. Could this be a game in which Skal could maybe get something going? Or will Poythress be able to ahve a good showing?

Thanks for the great input wildcatsboston, in both of your posts. Arkansas is almost as good offensively as they are bad defensively. UK is the opposite in many ways. I'm just hoping our better balance will stem the tide. That home court is what scares me. I have a feeling they're gonna score quite a bit at home, which means UK has to score to keep up, and I just don't know if we can.

 

[Wildcat-in-STL]

Arkansas will play amazing defense against us because those are the miracles that officials can grant when allowing a team to get away with a ton of contact

 

[cal=8]

Arkansas wants to run and press.. Good.. We shine in transition.. The 1/2 court game where you expect us to post up is where we struggle, we got no inside out game.. We can run though.. Cats by 6..

 

[musrat59]

I wish I could say for sure we win this game, but you never know who shows up to play for us except for Tyler.

 

[Dakota25]

In other words Arkansas is going to win.

 

[UKrazycat2]

Arky's #289 ranking in FTA's per game will get a major boost after the Cats leave bud Walton.

 

[IL Wildcat]

Arkansas wants to run and press.. Good.. We shine in transition.. The 1/2 court game where you expect us to post up is where we struggle, we got no inside out game.. We can run though.. Cats by 6..

This is a serious possibility. If UK can run when it's there but keep the game from becoming helter skelter, we could win this thing. That's a difficult balance to maintain, though.

 

[ORCAT]

Il Wildcat, this is one time I hate to agree with you but I think I must. Going to be a very rowdy and tough crowd for our guys, especially the younger ones, to play at and I think it will sway the outcome in favor of the Razorbacks. I hate losing to those guys, and I still hope we don't, but I see this one as a very tough one, especially when you look at how we've played on the road (other than the Bama game). Hope Cal has the guys prepared for the constant pressure and the crowd as I think those two things are key. Well, I guess he should have a good defense planned for that 3 point shooting of theirs too, huh? Going to be tough.

 

[docholiday51]

I hope we are in the game at the 3 minute mark with a chance to win,if we come to play it will be a fun game to watch. If we don't let it get away from us early we could pull out a win

 

[Primedfor9]

You'll be shocked? UK has lost to 4 very bad teams and now they are going to a program that can light it up. The game will be played in front of a jacked up crowd so prepare yourself to be shocked. I think UK can win but I will be far from shocked if UK loses.

No, Arkansas is worse than every team that has beat UK. We'll see tomorrow. So far, auburn is the only loss of the season that really surprised me and they were hitting everything they threw up to do it.

 

[IL Wildcat]

No, Arkansas is worse than every team that has beat UK. We'll see tomorrow. So far, auburn is the only loss of the season that really surprised me and they were hitting everything they threw up to do it.

I hope you're right primedfor9. They do have 8 losses for a reason. UK is the better team here, without question. But can we overcome the Bud Walton and beer muscles effect?

 

[Smashcat]

From Jon Scott. Time for Cal to win there.
bigbluehistory ‏@bigbluehistory 25m25 minutes ago
Stat of the Day: UK is 5-7 all-time in Fayetteville Ark. Last victory was 14-FEB-2009 under Gillispie when J. Meeks @Jmeeks20 went for 45.

 

[blubo]

what 'changes' in our team will we see tonight?

 

[true55]

In other words Arkansas is going to win.

I'm hoping that our cats finally "get it" ! And take take of business........That said , My gut says that Arkansas will be Jacked up (players & fans ) hit about 12 three's and the zebras are going to give every whistle to the Hogs . So , by half time we are probably down by 15 , Alex , Marcus , and Skal should be saddled with a huge amount of fouls and its prolly over by that point!
But hey.....I've been wrong before!

 

[Primedfor9]

No, Arkansas is worse than every team that has beat UK. We'll see tomorrow. So far, auburn is the only loss of the season that really surprised me and they were hitting everything they threw up to do it.

Cough
Arkansas has inflated team stats due to playing nobody, what they have one quality win and played A&M close and that's it. This isn't like the team with Portis and qualls, they have 3 top 150 players on their roster and I knew our guards would outplay freaking dusty Hannahs and Anthlon Bell.

 

[IL Wildcat]

They've played very well at home all season. This was a good win. I'm very happy to be wrong.