Rule of 71 does not work in close games like today

[bradscats]

I have no idea of the accuracy but most of the games i watch the rule of 71 does hold true.

It absolutely will most of the time. The first team to get there obviously is leading, which means they have the advantage. Some times they are leading by a significant amount even. This season, just over 60% of the teams reach 71 pts for their season average and under 13% average 80 or more. That means about 87% of the time a team is reaching 71 pts in the last 1-3 minutes of a game if they reach it at all. I would guess the team leading after 37 minutes wins a lot, regardless of the total.

 

[UK90]

This. It’s not a rule, it’s a statistical probability. Like the birthday bar bet.

There is a “statistical probability” that the first to reach ANY higher number is more likely to win than the preceding lower numbers. The first to reach 72 is more likely than the first to 71, the first to 71 more likely than the first to 70, the first to 70 more likely than 69, etc.

But there is nothing that makes 71 special or distinct from the other numbers in this respect. That’s just some voodoo nonsense theory someone made up and got some gullible fools to believe.

 

[TOMCATS1990]

I read about once, I believe a MIT professor had a hypothesis he had done. I always use the rule of 69 myself.

 

[Cats192]

It's more of a cute thing, fun thing to talk about. I don't know that I've ever felt gloom and doom if the score was 71-69 and there was time left on the clock.

 

[TheDude73]

When it is 71-70 or so, it has to be close to meaningless. If it is 71-60 with 2 minutes, then yeah.

They call that probability.