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REVISED! The "Modern Era" Elite Programs - A Statistical Interpretation

Re: The "Modern Era" Elite Programs - A Statistical Interpretation

I'm about finished ranking using the new scale. Much more work than I anticipated combined with a busy weekend. I should be able to post the results this afternoon. So far, there is some interesting reshuffling. Stay tuned!
 
Re: The "Modern Era" Elite Programs - A Statistical Interpretation

New Point Scale (starting with 1985). The order is shuffled quite a bit from my compounding scale. This scale gives more weighting to regular season accomplishments. KU greatly benefits, while UConn certainly does not. Big 10 teams would have certainly faired better with a conference tourney, but hey, they should have gotten with the program earlier.

21 Champs
12 Runner Up
10 Final 4
6 Elite 8
4 Sweet 16
3 Best Record
2 Conference Champ
2 Conference Tourney Champ
1 Conference Reg AND Tourney
1 Tourney Appearance

1. Duke 304 (still #1 without 1986 points)
2. UK 254 (Includes 1988. Even without those 9 pts, still #2)
3. KU 240
4. UNC 232
5. AZ. 189
6. UConn 184
7. UL 179 (158 without 1986 title before 3 pt line)
8. Mi St 168 (no Big 10 tourney until 1999 - effects all Big 10 teams)
9. Syr 146
10. UCLA 136
11. FL 133
12. UNLV 123
13. Mem 114
14. Oh St 100
15. IU 96
 
Re: The "Modern Era" Elite Programs - A Statistical Interpretation

Originally posted by point1zerorock:



All programs go through dry spells. Tubby almost broke into the Final Four several times. UK was very relevant until his last few years.
This is hilarious considering the BBN meltdowns over Cal not getting PAST the FF.

the decade of lowered expectations...
 
Re: The "Modern Era" Elite Programs - A Statistical Interpretation

Originally posted by MdWIldcat55:
No offense, but the point scale is completely arbitrary, as is the time period picked, whatever metrics one tries to use.

Kentucky scores out highest in any true evaluation of the greatest programs of all time. Sagarin did one just ahead of the 2009 season that was much more precise and analytical than the OPs and Kentucky was on top -- and since then the Cats have added more 30 game winning seasons than anyone, a championship, four final fours, etc. The gap is widening on everyone, including Duke, in the Sagarin ratings.
The time period is anything but arbitrary. Do you not believe the way the game is played and officiated did not change with the 3 major rule changes of the mid 80's - Tourney field expanding to 64, Intro of shot clock, intro of 3 point line?

As for the point scale, it may not be perfect, but I think its thorough and fair. Lastly, we all know who the greatist of all time is. UK - hands down, no question. Believe it or not, some people are actually interested in other time periods. I for one.
 
Re: The "Modern Era" Elite Programs - A Statistical Interpretation

LOL!!! When I clicked on this thread I thought it would be poking fun at UL for some big study one of their moron posters had done explaining why they were way ahead of us in the history of college basketball.

Sorry for the long sentence, but I'm not redoing it.
 
Re: The "Modern Era" Elite Programs - A Statistical Interpretation

Originally posted by point1zerorock:

Originally posted by Aike:
No doubt if you use a 30 year time period, Duke will come out on top. Their run from 86 through 94 was extraordinary.

Start 20 years ago, and you get a slightly different picture. Duke is still up high, but certainly UCONN and UK would be a lot closer, if not ahead.
Very, very true. Last 20 years, it's probably us. But even though 20 years is a nice round number - its kinda random and doesn't coincide with any changes to the way game the game is played/officiated. I like how the Modern Era correctly and conveniently for us UK fans excludes UofL's 1980 championship!
don't tell ul fans, it also excludes their 1986 championship, since the 3 point shot started the next season
 
You might try going back to 1975. That was the first year that the tournament expanded to include teams other than the conference champion, and was also Wooden's last season.

You also grab the Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Isaiah Thomas, Michael Jordan, Hakeem, Patrick Ewing years. I think most people would agree that those guys were playing at the same level as modern players, even if the game (3 point shooting especially) was a little different.
 
Re: The "Modern Era" Elite Programs - A Statistical Interpretation



Originally posted by MdWIldcat55:

Originally posted by point1zerorock:

Do you not believe the way the game is played and officiated did not change with the 3 major rule changes of the mid 80's - Tourney field expanding to 64, Intro of shot clock, intro of 3 point line?
Sure. I've been following the game since the mid-1960s, and it has changed every few years. The entire history of college basketball is one of rapid evolution and occasional regression, and while it is okay to say one period or another was more aesthetically pleasing, you can't measure the worth of a program without looking at the entire picture. It's like saying you like the Rolling Stones in the Mick Taylor era. Fine. But the band is what it is because of everything that happened from 1964 to today.

The changes you isolate were simply part of the overall evolution, that in my fan days alone included the mid-to-late 1960s when integration became more widespread, and the late 1960s-early 1970s when Sam Gilbert helped UCLA corner elite talent, and the 1970s when the game became much more physical and the early 1980s when the level of athleticism changed dramatically and the era when players like Kobe and LeBron went directly to the NBA in large numbers and today's one-and-done era brought about by the NBA's 19 and over rule.

I'm sure you are a sincere Kentucky fan, and your analysis is not meant to denigrate the broad sweep of the program's accomplishments. But it does bear the echo of 'analyses' I've seen from Louisville or UNC or Indiana fans that begin AFTER four Kentucky titles, and focuses on some period that conveniently includes all of their program's achievements and about a third of Kentucky's.
Would you believe me if I told you my favorite Stones era actually is the Mick Taylor era?
laugh.r191677.gif
Sticky Fingers, Exile, Only Rock & Roll. Great stuff! I love all others era's too though.

I get what you're saying, but to your point about this era including the majority of other teams accomplishments while excluding "about a third of Kentucky's" - isn't it telling and very cool that we're still ahead of them all (except Duke) without that 1/3? And of course we're far ahead of Duke over all. I think that's amazing!
 
Originally posted by Aike:
You might try going back to 1975. That was the first year that the tournament expanded to include teams other than the conference champion, and was also Wooden's last season.

You also grab the Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Isaiah Thomas, Michael Jordan, Hakeem, Patrick Ewing years. I think most people would agree that those guys were playing at the same level as modern players, even if the game (3 point shooting especially) was a little different.

Feel free to run the numbers man, but I'm about tapped out for a while! Even though I had a ball, it was a lot of work. It would be an interesting period to look at for sure, but in my book its not the "modern era." But that's just my opinion and it probably shouldn't count more than yours.

In that scenerio, Ican say UK and UNC would definitely make a run at Duke's lead with extra titles and runner-ups. IU would move up a lot, maybe into the top 5. UofL would move up a lot with another title and multi Final Fours. Georgetown would might crack the top 10. NC State would make some noise I bet.
 
Re: The "Modern Era" Elite Programs - A Statistical Interpretation


All programs go through dry spells. Tubby almost broke into the Final Four several times. UK was very relevant until his last few years. BCG was a train wreck though for sure. Might as well have been probation all over again!
Tubby loss six elite eight games.........brutal.
 
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