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Reed is now projected as #1 draft pick.

Son_Of_Saul said:
The obvious point is that they turned down being millionaires back in a day and age when they didn't have nil. Think about that. They could have been millionaires just like Reed could be a millionaire if he leaves. In both cases there was a major risk and in Duncan's case he turned down a top five pick status not just once, but twice. People act like it hasn't been done before but it has. We've seen elite players turn down millions of dollars in a day in age when nil didn't even exist. It's a curious thing that you and a few others are down playing that.
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Those few others and I understand NIL money now can't touch what a guaranteed, 4 year contract for a top 5 pick is. With that kind of money on the table, you have to be smart and strike when the iron is hot. Reed has to understand that this is a weak draft and his stock will only go down. The best business decision for HIM would be to leave after his freshman season.

Don't get me wrong, I would love for the kid to stay all four years. It would be great to see him go through senior night and possibly lead us to a title.
 
From the LHL today.
At the range in which Sheppard is now being projected, that hope might stretch the bounds of optimism. The No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA draft is slated to earn $10,504,800 in his first season in the league, according to the rookie salary scale.

But it is standard practice for top picks to earn 120% of the figure stated in the scale — the maximum that teams are allowed to pay under the system — and that would put the first-year salary for this year’s top pick around $12.6 million. The three-year total for the top selection in this year’s draft would be more than $39 million, using the expected 120% option.

The player who goes with the No. 5 pick in this year’s draft — the spot in which Sheppard landed on ESPN’s latest list — would receive more than $8.2 million in rookie salary and about $26 million over his first three seasons in the league. That’s, obviously, a lot of money.

Read more at: https://www.kentucky.com/article286565175.html#storylink=cpy
 
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I'm not really big on the whole conspiracy thing but I sometimes wonder if things like this get thrown out there to convince a guy to jump to get him off a specific team lol.
 
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Fox2monk said:
Dilly is Kyrie, they play a lot alike. Kyrie was probably a little more polished or less erratic but both have all the moves and finish at an elite level at the rim with an A+ handle and change of speed.
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Kyrie's godfather was Rod Strickland, no surprise he was further along coming out of HS.
 
Reed is a 15-year, multiple time all-star easily. He has the IQ, instincts, game, temperament, etc...

Win a title they're all gone. Get close, I say there's a chance Reed maybe someone else could be convinced to come back.

It's destiny, given his bloodline. When he was born there was a disturbance in the force.

That's why this year, perhaps next, may be the biggest of Cal's career. Do not let that kid walk away without fulfilling his destiny.
 
This is from Kevin O’Connor who’s seen as a joke by the draft community.

Reeds a really good player but he doesn’t have the offensive creation upside to justify being the 1st pick, especially at his size. Even top 3 might be a stretch. Despite it being a weak class. You have to be Kyrie level skilled, and/or John wall Athletic to be taken that high, at that size.

I project Reed as Derrick White-lite. Very good player. Since it’s a weak draft I could see him going 5-8. He’s gonna be a great pro regardless.
 
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KentuckyDad said:
This is from Kevin O’Connor who’s seen as a joke by the draft community.

Reeds a really good player but he doesn’t have the offensive creation upside to justify being the 1st pick, especially at his size. Even top 3 might be a stretch. Despite it being a weak class. You have to be Kyrie level skilled, and/or John wall Athletic to be taken that high, at that size.

I project Reed as Derrick White-lite. Very good player. Since it’s a weak draft I could see him going 5-8. He’s gonna be a great pro regardless.
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I think top 3 is fair.

I mean he could go 1.
He could go 3
He could go 10.

I feel like these things are very much in flux. There wasn't a time too long ago I could have swore people were saying Dilly was going 1.
 
The_Answer1313 said:
I think top 3 is fair.

I mean he could go 1.
He could go 3
He could go 10.

I feel like these things are very much in flux. There wasn't a time too long ago I could have swore people were saying Dilly was going 1.
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I think Dilly will go higher than Reed because he has that offensive creation upside that Reed doesn’t. Who knows though. The media and fans are usually off from how the league sees the draft until later into the process.

I’d be very surprised if Reed went top 2.
 
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Cold Stout Beer said:
He doesn't have Kyrie's strange attitude and flat earth theory, either. 😃
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I don't have that attitude either. I'm still nowhere near Kyrie on the court.

I think Reed is an amazing college player. I don't think he's anything close to a Kyrie at the next level.
 
Cold Stout Beer said:
He'll be much better than Kyrie as far as helping a team win. That's all that counts in a team sport.
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I'll believe it when I see it.

It's one thing to be a great college player. That doesn't always translate to NBA super star. Kyrie, for all of his selfishiness and craziness, is a superstar talent.

Teams want a superstar with a top 5 pick. Not a good role player that helps you get wins.
 
Cats192 said:
I'll believe it when I see it.

It's one thing to be a great college player. That doesn't always translate to NBA super star. Kyrie, for all of his selfishiness and craziness, is a superstar talent.

Teams want a superstar with a top 5 pick. Not a good role player that helps you get wins.
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Whatever you say.
 
UKWildcats1987 said:
I'd he's a OAD he's going pro regardless.

He either is a OAD or he isnt.
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My point being that from what I saw of him I thought he was good enough to be OAD and I think he’s shown that. My hope now is that after he’s gotten a taste of playing for UK that not winning a championship this season might bring him back. I should’ve been more clear about that.

He’s obviously got a very unique situation so I think the calculation is a little different for him than any other OAD we’ve had.
 
Thats An Awful Idea said:
If Reed is the #1 pick, some NBA execs are going to be job hunting.
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He ain't #1, we all know that. But in all seriousness - taking Reed in the lottery and him not immediately succeeding is exactly how GM's lose their job. That's not to say I don't think he's good enough to be a lottery pick, but GM's are going to do far, far more due dilligence than looking at one season of college ball before annointing him a top-10 draft pick. Drafting a 6'2 white boy that early in the draft is really, really hard to defend as a GM if he doesn't have immediate success.
 
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I love Reed, but I’d take Rob over him. His game will translate perfectly to the NBA.
 
KentuckyDad said:
This is from Kevin O’Connor who’s seen as a joke by the draft community.

Reeds a really good player but he doesn’t have the offensive creation upside to justify being the 1st pick, especially at his size. Even top 3 might be a stretch. Despite it being a weak class. You have to be Kyrie level skilled, and/or John wall Athletic to be taken that high, at that size.

I project Reed as Derrick White-lite. Very good player. Since it’s a weak draft I could see him going 5-8. He’s gonna be a great pro regardless.
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How can you watch all those step back jumpers and luka like old man ability to get to his spots and not think Reed has a creative offensive ability. It might be done at a slower pace than say a kyrie but it is still effective and creative in his own right.
 
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CatsFanIL said:
He ain't #1, we all know that. But in all seriousness - taking Reed in the lottery and him not immediately succeeding is exactly how GM's lose their job. That's not to say I don't think he's good enough to be a lottery pick, but GM's are going to do far, far more due dilligence than looking at one season of college ball before annointing him a top-10 draft pick. Drafting a 6'2 white boy that early in the draft is really, really hard to defend as a GM if he doesn't have immediate success.
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The problem for Reed is he isn't particularly quick, and his shot requires some time and space to get off. He passed up a lot of shots because of it. It also hurts him defensively because quicker guys are able to get past him.

Most of your individual workouts for the draft are just a handful of guys, so you aren't getting the 5 on 5 drills which is where Reed excels because of his court vision and passing. He also isn't likely going to do the combine being such a high prospect. It's going to be more iso stuff, which is not his strength at all.

I honestly think he will end up dipping to the low lottery or just outside of the lottery, and that may be enough to push him back to UK.
 
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WyleECoyote said:
because they're on the bench to start?
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🤣At anyone thinking them starting the game on the bench is why we lost those 8 games.

The biggest reason in every one of them was that we were physically manhandled in every one of them.
The second biggest reason (and I'm not saying this as an excuse, injuries happen and good teams/Coaches rally and over come them) was injuries.
I'm sure youth was a factor, as was our bad defense for 90% of the season.
 
Thats An Awful Idea said:
The problem for Reed is he isn't particularly quick, and his shot requires some time and space to get off. He passed up a lot of shots because of it. It also hurts him defensively because quicker guys are able to get past him.

Most of your individual workouts for the draft are just a handful of guys, so you aren't getting the 5 on 5 drills which is where Reed excels because of his court vision and passing. He also isn't likely going to do the combine being such a high prospect. It's going to be more iso stuff, which is not his strength at all.

I honestly think he will end up dipping to the low lottery or just outside of the lottery, and that may be enough to push him back to UK.
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Finally, someone gets it! Very good post.

But even if he remains projected top 10, I think he might return.
1) to finish "growing up" from a kid to a man, and enjoy "the college experience" for 1 more year
2) to become stronger and hopefully quicker so he can better compete vs grown-ass men playing for their livelihood
3) to continue living part of his childhood dream of playing for UK, leading UK, hopefully to a championship
4) to possibly get closer (maybe 1 yr away) from having his degree
5) to increase the odds that his 2nd contract, the one that can set you and your family up for generations, hits it's optimal value ($); yes, there is quite possibly a financial benefit to returning (beyond NIL, NIL doesn't over come the gap, NIL just lessens it some)
 
rob_47 said:
How can you watch all those step back jumpers and luka like old man ability to get to his spots and not think Reed has a creative offensive ability. It might be done at a slower pace than say a kyrie but it is still effective and creative in his own right.
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I didn’t say Reed wasn’t a creative offensive player. He just won’t be an offensive creator at the next level. He doesn’t have the handle or first step to do that full time.
 
Son_Of_Saul said:
The obvious point is that they turned down being millionaires back in a day and age when they didn't have nil. Think about that. They could have been millionaires just like Reed could be a millionaire if he leaves. In both cases there was a major risk and in Duncan's case he turned down a top five pick status not just once, but twice. People act like it hasn't been done before but it has. We've seen elite players turn down millions of dollars in a day in age when nil didn't even exist. It's a curious thing that you and a few others are down playing that.
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The problem is your example is players from 30+ years ago. David Robinson was actually allowed to do only 2 years with the Navy so he could go pro
 
Doodah859 said:
The problem is your example is players from 30+ years ago. David Robinson was actually allowed to do only 2 years with the Navy so he could go pro
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And?

They turned down being instant millionaires because they were the exception to the rule. Reed has two parents and a background that likewise makes him the exception.
 
Son_Of_Saul said:
And?

They turned down being instant millionaires because they were the exception to the rule. Reed has two parents and a background that likewise makes him the exception.
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I think the money is a lot more substantial now vs then, though. What were they turning down in terms of a 1st contract?
 
Son_Of_Saul said:
They were getting about half back then. Still a ton of money to turn down though, even back in the 90s.
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I don’t disagree, but, I am also in agreement with your projection that Reed is likely around that 11 - 17 pick level.

The 17th pick for 2023 got $3,078,300 in their first year. And I am not even sure if that was even a max rookie contract. I do not see a way in which NIL can compete with that for 1 year. And being realistic, it is going to be incredibly difficult to maintain those shooting 3pt percentages and +/- numbers for another year. Particularly when he would have to learn to play with basically a new team here. Then there is the injury risk.

IMO, it's just a massive gamble if you are getting a guarantee anywhere near that high. And if he really is a top 10 level pick, you have to take it! The next few drafts only get stronger.
 
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What did Stockton an Nash do as a freshman an in what area were they better than Reed?

Reed is a hybrid of both Stockton an Nash. Bur he needs to improve his handle a little. He's not slow but not really fast either. Those are the only 2 negatives. He will learn better handles and his speed isn't terrible.

He brings, IQ, poise, great passing, great shooting, level head, great off ball d. Hes a can't miss player. He won't go 1st. Best landing place is San Antonio obviously with great coach and future best player in Wemby to play off of
 
Thats An Awful Idea said:
I don’t disagree, but, I am also in agreement with your projection that Reed is likely around that 11 - 17 pick level.

The 17th pick for 2023 got $3,078,300 in their first year. And I am not even sure if that was even a max rookie contract. I do not see a way in which NIL can compete with that for 1 year. And being realistic, it is going to be incredibly difficult to maintain those shooting 3pt percentages and +/- numbers for another year. Particularly when he would have to learn to play with basically a new team here. Then there is the injury risk.

IMO, it's just a massive gamble if you are getting a guarantee anywhere near that high. And if he really is a top 10 level pick, you have to take it! The next few drafts only get stronger.
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NIL cannot compete with an NBA (1st round) contract. But for a "kid" NIL can make him feel rich, and can offset some of that lost contract $.
BUT....that $3M you just mentioned, is nothing compared to what his 2nd contract could be less as a result of going too soon, to where he isn't close to his maximum value by the end of his 3rd year. I think he could get a much bigger 2nd contract by staying one more year, getting stronger and quicker before leaving.

And I agree with you it is unlikely he replicates those shooting %'s. And I think NBA teams know that, don't expect him to shoot that good. But he NEEDS to get stronger and/or quicker to play vs grown-ass men. He would be manhandled. Rob on the other hand, they have to catch him first to manhandle him.
 
Thats An Awful Idea said:
I don’t disagree, but, I am also in agreement with your projection that Reed is likely around that 11 - 17 pick level.
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This is a ridiculous take when every single draft site/analyst has him going anywhere from 1-10. If you don't think he's a top 7 pick right now, you're just deluding yourself.
 
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