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Reason to be optimistic about UK's run game

jmalone7us

jmalone7us

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UK has been playing most of the year without their #1, #2 and #4 running backs. You can debate what number Smoke is but I'd put him at 3rd behind Jefferson.

Here is a good side by side chart comparing 2021 and 2022 Smoke and 2021 CRod. Smoke has been doing what Smoke has always done. I have no reason to doubt that CRod will also continue to do what CRod has always done. I didn't put Wrights numbers on this chart because they are embarrassingly bad. (Ended up adding Wright to the chart.) After watching a crap load of film its mainly because he just isn't finding the holes. But I think you will feel a hell of a lot better once you see Smoke's numbers from last year compared to this year and see there really is no difference in how he is running the ball. I feel CRod will also pick up where he left off last year.

 
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Imo one thing that's really effecting the run game is the lack of QB run. Perfect example: last game we caught them in a blitz and had it well blocked for a big gain, but the edge defender crashed down and made the play. That doesn't happen if we have QB run threat.

I totally get why we don't do it as much but I think we should still do it at times. Levis loves it and it really keeps the defense honest. Jmo but I think we'll see the read a few times in key situations moving forward.
 
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EJCatLA said:
Smoke averages five yards a carry this year? Would’ve fooled me.
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Smoke has not been bad. It's the minus, or no gain plays that hurt. Crod just doesn't take those kind of plays. But getting behind the chains for , say 2nd and 12, puts us in a bad position. Then, after incomplete pass, a 9 yd run on 3rd down doesn't help. We've seen that several times this year
 
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Short-Dawg-69 said:
Maybe just me but I think Smoke will have a couple really nice explosive long runs AFTER... CRod comes back .
CRod will help to wear the D down some and thats when they will put Smoke in with fresh legs.

CRod going to wear some units out this year for sure...
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I agree w you but I wish McClain would get those snaps over Smoke. They are similar backs and McClain seems to have more pop and wiggle to him from what I’ve seen. He also catches the ball well out of the backfield
 
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Man....I love stats. This is perfect, thank you.

I was disecting last weeks game trying to make myslef feel better and discussing with my son. I noted that Smoke averaged 7.1 yards a carry against NIU. Then I waited for the "yeah but he had one carry for 27."

First off, yeah he had a 27 yard carry. That's good right? That's what he's supposed to do. Like all them Florida fans saying, "if we didn't turn the ball over", yeah but you did.

Secondly, if you take away that 27 yard run, he still averaged 5.3 yards per carry.

The running game will improve folks.

As far as protections, I think Will holds the ball just a tad too long. I also think we have called many more intermediate and longer passing plays that require he hold it a little longer than normal. We don't seem to throw short as much during the first four games.

The line will get there. They have the ability. Look at the blocking and protections on good plays, not just the bad.
 
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Short-Dawg-69 said:
Maybe just me but I think Smoke will have a couple really nice explosive long runs AFTER... CRod comes back .
CRod will help to wear the D down some and thats when they will put Smoke in with fresh legs.

CRod going to wear some units out this year for sure...
Click to expand...
#6 and #20 on UKs All Time Rushing List. Thats going to go up all season barring injury.
Rare to have 2 RBs this high on the list running together.
Just another reason UK is a legit threat to win it all.
 
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AirRaid08 said:
Man....I love stats. This is perfect, thank you.

I was disecting last weeks game trying to make myslef feel better and discussing with my son. I noted that Smoke averaged 7.1 yards a carry against NIU. Then I waited for the "yeah but he had one carry for 27."

First off, yeah he had a 27 yard carry. That's good right? That's what he's supposed to do. Like all them Florida fans saying, "if we didn't turn the ball over", yeah but you did.

Secondly, if you take away that 27 yard run, he still averaged 5.3 yards per carry.

The running game will improve folks.

As far as protections, I think Will holds the ball just a tad too long. I also think we have called many more intermediate and longer passing plays that require he hold it a little longer than normal. We don't seem to throw short as much during the first four games.

The line will get there. They have the ability. Look at the blocking and protections on good plays, not just the bad.
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The common lack of any route less than 15 yards is frustrating to me. We often don’t have a check down now do we have anyone out of their initial cut yet when Levis has to start scrambling or is getting hit. Been a saying all season we need to run more quick slants, out and shallow digs or RB passes to help out OLine out and keep will upright but it’s largely been missing from the playcalling
 
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The O-line is averaging 2.4 ypc with 16 sacks allowed. That is the problem. No question Rodriguez will help between the tackles, he's a pile driver. That means our O-line will be firing off the ball and hitting the Ole Miss D-line more, instead of trying to pass block or blocking for perimeter plays. That should slow down the pass rush.
 
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FtWorthCat said:
The O-line is averaging 2.4 ypc with 16 sacks allowed. That is the problem. No question Rodriguez will help between the tackles, he's a pile driver. That means our O-line will be firing off the ball and hitting the Ole Miss D-line more, instead of trying to pass block or blocking for perimeter plays. That should slow down the pass rush.
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Alas the font of reason!
I am not alone after all!
 
I
HerrosHeroes said:
Congrats on clinching Morg. Now plz stop the Braves from becoming the 1st NL team to repeat since the BRM in 75 and 76.
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They ain’t doin shit. The Braves are about like Duke to me. Got lucky last year this year luck runs out and it’s back to the gutter for 20 more years.
 
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FtWorthCat said:
The O-line is averaging 2.4 ypc with 16 sacks allowed. That is the problem. No question Rodriguez will help between the tackles, he's a pile driver. That means our O-line will be firing off the ball and hitting the Ole Miss D-line more, instead of trying to pass block or blocking for perimeter plays. That should slow down the pass rush.
Click to expand...
If Smoke's running numbers look like last years, then the O line is doing about like last year's. when he is in the game. unless Smoke has improved greatly over last year. The problem seems to be when other runners are in the game and with pass blocking. Last year's line was not great at pass blocking either.
 
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EliteBlue said:
The common lack of any route less than 15 yards is frustrating to me. We often don’t have a check down now do we have anyone out of their initial cut yet when Levis has to start scrambling or is getting hit. Been a saying all season we need to run more quick slants, out and shallow digs or RB passes to help out OLine out and keep will upright but it’s largely been missing from the playcalling
Click to expand...

He always has a check down (usually a RB). Always. He just mostly refuses to use it.

FtWorthCat said:
The O-line is averaging 2.4 ypc with 16 sacks allowed
Click to expand...

OL has about half those, if that. At least 3 last game were on the QB. 1 was on the RB. I can remember at least 3 the first game on the QB.

We all love will and his physical ability. He's getting better at playing the position but still has a long way to go. Identifying blitzers and/or quickly going through reads is areas where he has a long way to go. OL needs to play better as well but they're progressing week to week too
 
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bluejohnson said:
Smoke has not been bad. It's the minus, or no gain plays that hurt. Crod just doesn't take those kind of plays. But getting behind the chains for , say 2nd and 12, puts us in a bad position. Then, after incomplete pass, a 9 yd run on 3rd down doesn't help. We've seen that several times this year
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Smoke is being asked to make the runs CRod would normally make and they aren't the same type back. I really hope there is some validity to this, bout Our line is obviously not the level it was in the past. The Sacks tell that story. Our line is unable to sustain a block. Levis getting sacked on third down plays is very frustrating.
 
bluejohnson said:
Smoke has not been bad. It's the minus, or no gain plays that hurt. Crod just doesn't take those kind of plays. But getting behind the chains for , say 2nd and 12, puts us in a bad position. Then, after incomplete pass, a 9 yd run on 3rd down doesn't help. We've seen that several times this year
Click to expand...

This is a great point. Smoke is great if he gets to run to daylight. If he's clear, he's explosive. He can't really make anyone miss but he has a lot of burst. The downside is zone requires backs to find their own daylight and well he just doesn't. That results in numerous negative plays that put us behind the chains.

Crod by contrast really doesn't get many explosives. However he almost never has a negative play. It's amazing he averages 6.6 ypc given the lack of long runs. That means he's basically good for 5 yards per handoff. That's incredible. Ya it isn't sexy but it keeps the chains moving and wears down the other team
 
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EliteBlue said:
The common lack of any route less than 15 yards is frustrating to me. We often don’t have a check down now do we have anyone out of their initial cut yet when Levis has to start scrambling or is getting hit. Been a saying all season we need to run more quick slants, out and shallow digs or RB passes to help out OLine out and keep will upright but it’s largely been missing from the playcalling
Click to expand...
We've actually had quite a few. Levis often misses them or just seems to ignore them. Last game he missed back and tight end relief valves. He also missed some shorter receivers while looking for the big strike. Sometimes he is just late getting to the second and third routes even ones on the same side of the field as #1.
 
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bigblueinsanity said:
This is a great point. Smoke is great if he gets to run to daylight. If he's clear, he's explosive. He can't really make anyone miss but he has a lot of burst. The downside is zone requires backs to find their own daylight and well he just doesn't. That results in numerous negative plays that put us behind the chains.

Crod by contrast really doesn't get many explosives. However he almost never has a negative play. It's amazing he averages 6.6 ypc given the lack of long runs. That means he's basically good for 5 yards per handoff. That's incredible. Ya it isn't sexy but it keeps the chains moving and wears down the other team
Click to expand...
This is false. If you look at the chart CRod has led Smoke in every yardage category not only for last season but 2020 also. The same misconception that AJ Rose was more explosive than CRod was going on in 2020. He was not. CRod also led Rose in every yardage category.

Wright has had way more negative plays than Smoke. I'll add him to the chart in a few minutes. I hope Wright is healthy after his injury but I'd be surprised if he gets anymore carries this season even if he is. He is clearly not ready to be counted on.
 
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bigblueinsanity said:
He always has a check down (usually a RB). Always. He just mostly refuses to use it.



OL has about half those, if that. At least 3 last game were on the QB. 1 was on the RB. I can remember at least 3 the first game on the QB.

We all love will and his physical ability. He's getting better at playing the position but still has a long way to go. Identifying blitzers and/or quickly going through reads is areas where he has a long way to go. OL needs to play better as well but they're progressing week to week too
Click to expand...
This exactly. It’s right there on film. It’s quite shocking to me that so few people watch the Van Hiles film breakdown. It should be required viewing for most people wanting to comment on what is or isn’t happening in the game .
 
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yoshukai said:
This exactly. It’s right there on film. It’s quite shocking to me that so few people watch the Van Hiles film breakdown. It should be required viewing for most people wanting to comment on what is or isn’t happening in the game .
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"Throw the ball... Throw the ball... Throw the D^*& ball."
 
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jmalone7us said:
This is false. If you look at the chart CRod has led Smoke in every yardage category not only for last season but 2020 also. The same misconception that AJ Rose was more explosive than CRod was going on in 2020. He was not. CRod also led Rose in every yardage category.

Wright has had way more negative plays than Smoke. I'll add him to the chart in a few minutes. I hope Wright is healthy after his injury but I'd be surprised if he gets anymore carries this season even if he is. He is clearly not ready to be counted on.
Click to expand...

I didn't say he didn't get any explosives. I said he doesn't get many. He doesn't. His average is incredible given his style of running.

Smoke is physically explosive but is either feast or famine. As your numbers point out, about half his runs are no gain, which is pretty crazy.

Finally help me with your numbers. The percentages add up to way more than 100% and the carries exceed the total carrie. If I am reading it correctly, if a RB has a run for 40 yards, he also gets a credit for all the tiers below too?
 
bigblueinsanity said:
I didn't say he didn't get any explosives. I said he doesn't get many. He doesn't. His average is incredible given his style of running.

Smoke is physically explosive but is either feast or famine. As your numbers point out, about half his runs are no gain, which is pretty crazy.

Finally help me with your numbers. The percentages add up to way more than 100% and the carries exceed the total carrie. If I am reading it correctly, if a RB has a run for 40 yards, he also gets a credit for all the tiers below too?
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Lets take the 4+ yard category for example. Any carry a running back gets that is 4 yards or more they get credit for that category. Smoke this year has 25 carries that have gone for 4 yards or more or 49% of his carries. He has only gained 0 yards or less 17.6% of the time. Wright is gaining 0 yards or less on 39.3% of his carries. I have the split set at 3+yards and 2-yards. Those two percentages add up to 100%. 3+ yards being a successful run and 2 yards or less being a negative run.
 
jmalone7us said:
UK has been playing most of the year without their #1, #2 and #4 running backs. You can debate what number Smoke is but I'd put him at 3rd behind Jefferson.

Here is a good side by side chart comparing 2021 and 2022 Smoke and 2021 CRod. Smoke has been doing what Smoke has always done. I have no reason to doubt that CRod will also continue to do what CRod has always done. I didn't put Wrights numbers on this chart because they are embarrassingly bad. (Ended up adding Wright to the chart.) After watching a crap load of film its mainly because he just isn't finding the holes. But I think you will feel a hell of a lot better once you see Smoke's numbers from last year compared to this year and see there really is no difference in how he is running the ball. I feel CRod will also pick up where he left off last year.

View embedded media
Click to expand...

Why don't your numbers and percentages reconcile on this chart?
 
Girthang said:
Why don't your numbers and percentages reconcile on this chart?
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Read the post above your original post where I explain how I have set this up. The only yardage categories that = 100% are the 3+ and 2-. That is where I have set the split to determine a positive or negative play.
 
jmalone7us said:
This is false. If you look at the chart CRod has led Smoke in every yardage category not only for last season but 2020 also. The same misconception that AJ Rose was more explosive than CRod was going on in 2020. He was not. CRod also led Rose in every yardage category.
Click to expand...

I agree on CRod, but that's just a bad take based on incomplete data. Wright was learning a system that was fractured last year. Wide zone or inside zone.... We were in between. We still are.

We will know more about Wright when we have our feet on solid ground with this offense.
 
Girthang said:
I agree on CRod, but that's just a bad take based on incomplete data. Wright was learning a system that was fractured last year. Wide zone or inside zone.... We were in between. We still are.

We will know more about Wright when we have our feet on solid ground with this offense.
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??? Those are Wrights numbers from this year. There is a big difference between Wrights numbers and Smokes. I don't care if he is still learning the system or not. He can continue to learn it in practice because he isn't ready for live games at this point. He just doesn't see the holes. With CRod, Smoke and McClain back in action I doubt Wright see's anymore carries if they stay healthy.
 
jmalone7us said:
Read the post above your original post where I explain how I have set this up. The only yardage categories that = 100% are the 3+ and 2-. That is where I have set the split to determine a positive or negative play.
Click to expand...

That post still doesn't explain why the 3+ % (and data) in the bottom of the chart doesn't equal the 3+ % (and data) at the top of the chart. Did CRod have 161 carries of 3+ yards or 158? I'm just curious why the numbers are different. It really doesn't change the point being made
 
Girthang said:
That post still doesn't explain why the 3+ % (and data) in the bottom of the chart doesn't equal the 3+ % (and data) at the top of the chart. Did CRod have 161 carries of 3+ yards or 158? I'm just curious why the numbers are different. It really doesn't change the point being made
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Ok. So the bottom data is just straight yardage numbers. The top data is taking into account a few other things. Runs of 1 and 2 yards that result in a TD or 1st down get moved from the negative category to the positive category. Runs of 3 yards or more that result in a fumble get moved from the positive category to the negative category.
 
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