Projected Field of 64 (April 20)

[Comebakatz3]

They have us first 4 out.

Projected Field Of 64: April 20 • D1Baseball

We released our first batch of projections a couple of weeks ago at the midseason mark. Much has changed in our latest NCAA tournament projections after Week Nine.

d1baseball.com

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

They have us first 4 out.

Projected Field Of 64: April 20 • D1Baseball

We released our first batch of projections a couple of weeks ago at the midseason mark. Much has changed in our latest NCAA tournament projections after Week Nine.

d1baseball.com

Man they never miss a chance to put Louisville and Vandy together do they??

I think UK is a longshot at best to make the tourney. 7-8 through 15 games. You almost have to be .500 in conference play to make the big dance and Ill be honest, I dont see the path to it. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[SeanCain]

Man they never miss a chance to put Louisville and Vandy together do they??

I think UK is a longshot at best to make the tourney. 7-8 through 15 games. You almost have to be .500 in conference play to make the big dance and Ill be honest, I dont see the path to it. I hope I'm wrong.

Unfortunately you’re not wrong. I see us winning 5-6 more conference games out of 15 remaining tops. That’s getting one out of every series left and two versus Bama.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Unfortunately you’re not wrong. I see us winning 5-6 more conference games out of 15 remaining tops. That’s getting one out of every series left and two versus Bama.

I think 6 is very generous.

UK has often had this thing where they lose a series they shouldn't and win one they should. So, it wouldn't surprise me to see UK do something like lose this week to Alabama, but then go to Knoxville and take 2.

I am still thinking it plays out similarly to 2018... UK gets to 13 and we just need to steal one from Vanderbilt to ensure that we're in, and they sweep us in Nashville instead.

Then we will see if Mingione learned anything because in 2018 he started Harper in the SEC tournament rather than a weekend starter. Had he got that 1 win against Auburn we might have been in. He thought we already were in. So, will he do what he did in 2018 if we're in the same situation, or will he learn and actually throw Stupp day 1?

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

I think 6 is very generous.

UK has often had this thing where they lose a series they shouldn't and win one they should. So, it wouldn't surprise me to see UK do something like lose this week to Alabama, but then go to Knoxville and take 2.

I am still thinking it plays out similarly to 2018... UK gets to 13 and we just need to steal one from Vanderbilt to ensure that we're in, and they sweep us in Nashville instead.

Then we will see if Mingione learned anything because in 2018 he started Harper in the SEC tournament rather than a weekend starter. Had he got that 1 win against Auburn we might have been in. He thought we already were in. So, will he do what he did in 2018 if we're in the same situation, or will he learn and actually throw Stupp day 1?

This times 1000. The problem is, I think the series they lost that they shouldn’t have was the LSU series. And I really didn’t expect a sweet at Auburn. Even if you win the series against Bama and get to 9-9, you still have to play .500 to be safe for a tourney bid. That means you have to win two of the final four series and split the other two at worst. Lose the Bama series, and you have to win 3 of the final 4 and more than likely will need a sweep. You get swept against Bama, which I don’t think will happen, then games over.

As for the SEC tournament, if it started today UK would play Georgia. I would think you almost have to pitch Stupp but do you have that short turn around coming from the Vandy series. Too many questions right now.

 

[GGCAT]

Baseball regional projections and power rankings are all over the board.

Saw one where we were a 2 seed in Va Tech's region which is probably unrealistic to be that high, if a bid even comes.

Then another that had Missouri (last in the SEC with a 12-25 record) as a 3 seed. But we were not even in first 4 out or next 4 out.

Despite a #9 poll ranking, RPI has Louisville at 45 only after a 14 place jump from the week before.

And of course much like Colgate in CBB power rankings this past season.....Fairfield is #2 in the RPI.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Then another that had Missouri (last in the SEC with a 12-25 record) as a 3 seed. But we were not even in first 4 out or next 4 out.

Surely this was prior to the season!?

 

[GGCAT]

Surely this was prior to the season!?

Nope, i checked the date after I saw their name in the bracket. It was last week....but still.

Based it totally on SOS

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

Just my two cents here. I think the SEC gets 8 in regardless with a possibility of a 9th. Win the first day of the SEC tournament, and I think that alone plays into the tournament. After that, it gets a little muddy.

Confident gets in:
Vandy
Florida
South Carolina
Tennessee
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Miss. State

Georgia and Kentucky I think are the best to fight for that #8 spot. Georgia has a tough end of the year schedule which I think could help UK. Ole Miss, Florida, Arkansas and Auburn. But Georgia does have the series win over Kentucky but that may not come into play. Call me crazy but I think LSU finishes the year strong and gets one. They're 6-12 right now and play Arkansas this weekend. But have Auburn, Bama and Texas A&M to finish. If they finish 14-16 and have a strong showing in the SEC, then they could sneak in. And remember, they beat Kentucky 2 out of 3.

UK really needs to avoid being swept over the next 4 series. Which I think is completely possible. But they have to win at least two of the series to get off this edge. Can they do it? I think so. But Im not entirely confident at the moment.