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Pretty Decent Week So Far For Our NCAA/SEC Seeding

Tampa_cat54

Tampa_cat54

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Apr 22, 2011
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For SEC Seeding:

Kentucky won
Miss State Lost
Vandy Lost
Ole Miss won (which is good AND bad for us, but means there's no scenario now that we potentially play on Wednesday, and could still get as high as the 6 seed if Ole Miss loses @ FL and we beat Mizzou).

For NCAA Tournament Seeding, looking at teams close to us in seed lines:

Kentucky won
Mizzou lost to OU (which is a double win because our win against them now looks even better)
Iowa State lost to BYU
Michigan has lost two in a row, including tonight to Maryland

Looking ahead:

Arizona (currently projected 4 seed) SHOULD lose AT KU on Saturday (in the Phog)
Michigan (currently projected 4 seed) SHOULD lose AT Michigan State on Saturday (in East Lansing)
Purdue (currently projected 4 seed) SHOULD lose AT Illinois on Saturday (In Illinois)
St. Johns (currently projected 3 seed) SHOULD lose AT Marquette on Saturday (In Milwaukee)

If we can just beat Mizzou on Saturday, we should be in an unbelievable position to get a 3 seed. But HAVE to go win.
 
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Tampa_cat54 said:
For SEC Seeding:

Kentucky won
Miss State Lost
Vandy Lost
Ole Miss won (which is good AND bad for us, but means there's no scenario now that we potentially play on Wednesday, and could still get as high as the 6 seed if Ole Miss loses @ FL and we beat Mizzou).

For NCAA Tournament Seeding, looking at teams close to us in seed lines:

Kentucky won
Mizzou lost to OU (which is a double win because our win against them now looks even better)
Iowa State lost to BYU
Michigan has lost two in a row, including tonight to Maryland

Looking ahead:

Arizona (currently projected 4 seed) SHOULD lose AT KU on Saturday (in the Phog)
Michigan (currently projected 4 seed) SHOULD lose AT Michigan State on Saturday (in East Lansing)
Purdue (currently projected 4 seed) SHOULD lose AT Illinois on Saturday (In Illinois)
St. Johns (currently projected 3 seed) SHOULD lose AT Marquette on Saturday (In Milwaukee)

If we can just beat Mizzou on Saturday, we should be in an unbelievable position to get a 3 seed. But HAVE to go win.
Click to expand...
I can see St John’s winning, Purdue is hotter now and Illinois is inconsistent. That said I just want us to win and then make a SECT run. We control our destiny. We have all the great wins we could ask for. Just need to beef up the record a little now.
 
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Tampa_cat54 said:
For SEC Seeding:

Kentucky won
Miss State Lost
Vandy Lost
Ole Miss won (which is good AND bad for us, but means there's no scenario now that we potentially play on Wednesday, and could still get as high as the 6 seed if Ole Miss loses @ FL and we beat Mizzou).

For NCAA Tournament Seeding, looking at teams close to us in seed lines:

Kentucky won
Mizzou lost to OU (which is a double win because our win against them now looks even better)
Iowa State lost to BYU
Michigan has lost two in a row, including tonight to Maryland

Looking ahead:

Arizona (currently projected 4 seed) SHOULD lose AT KU on Saturday (in the Phog)
Michigan (currently projected 4 seed) SHOULD lose AT Michigan State on Saturday (in East Lansing)
Purdue (currently projected 4 seed) SHOULD lose AT Illinois on Saturday (In Illinois)
St. Johns (currently projected 3 seed) SHOULD lose AT Marquette on Saturday (In Milwaukee)

If we can just beat Mizzou on Saturday, we should be in an unbelievable position to get a 3 seed. But HAVE to go win.
Click to expand...
We would need tex am n to lose to wouldn't we to get the 6?
 
Only thing that hurt was A&M beating Auburn. I think there's no way we drop below a 4 seed unless we finish 0-2 and a bunch of teams behind us win, but don't feel great about keeping a 3 seed without beating Mizzou
 
jbne222 said:
Only thing that hurt was A&M beating Auburn. I think there's no way we drop below a 4 seed unless we finish 0-2 and a bunch of teams behind us win, but don't feel great about keeping a 3 seed without beating Mizzou
Click to expand...
On the other hand, if you lose to Missouri, you would have a chance to beat Auburn yourself in the SECT to get back on the 3 line. Do I see that happening? Not likely
 
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Tampa_cat54 said:
For SEC Seeding:

Kentucky won
Miss State Lost
Vandy Lost
Ole Miss won (which is good AND bad for us, but means there's no scenario now that we potentially play on Wednesday, and could still get as high as the 6 seed if Ole Miss loses @ FL and we beat Mizzou).

For NCAA Tournament Seeding, looking at teams close to us in seed lines:

Kentucky won
Mizzou lost to OU (which is a double win because our win against them now looks even better)
Iowa State lost to BYU
Michigan has lost two in a row, including tonight to Maryland

Looking ahead:

Arizona (currently projected 4 seed) SHOULD lose AT KU on Saturday (in the Phog)
Michigan (currently projected 4 seed) SHOULD lose AT Michigan State on Saturday (in East Lansing)
Purdue (currently projected 4 seed) SHOULD lose AT Illinois on Saturday (In Illinois)
St. Johns (currently projected 3 seed) SHOULD lose AT Marquette on Saturday (In Milwaukee)

If we can just beat Mizzou on Saturday, we should be in an unbelievable position to get a 3 seed. But HAVE to go win.
Click to expand...

We might not even have to beat Mizz, so long as we win the first SECT game. Amazingly enough we've been a 3 seed for like nearly a month, and we've consistently won a game and lost a game almost every week.. yet we've stayed right on that 3 seed through it all.

We are at the point now where other teams will need to win their final game AND probably win a game in their tournament to over take us.

Things look pretty good to lock in a 3 seed. And the absolute worst case scenario seems to be dropping to a 4.

Bracket Matrix has us as the final 3 seed, but thats lagging a bit from our win last night and Michigan and ISUs loss. At some point teams are just too far back to catch us IMO, because Mizz won't hurt us too bad as it's gonna be a Q1a game regardless.
 
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LineSkiCat14 said:
We might not even have to beat Mizz, so long as we win the first SECT game. Amazingly enough we've been a 3 seed for like nearly a month, and we've consistently won a game and lost a game almost every week.. yet we've stayed right on that 3 seed through it all.

We are at the point now where other teams will need to win their final game AND probably win a game in their tournament to over take us.

Things look pretty good to lock in a 3 seed. And the absolute worst case scenario seems to be dropping to a 4.

Bracket Matrix has us as the final 3 seed, but thats lagging a bit from our win last night and Michigan and ISUs loss. At some point teams are just too far back to catch us IMO, because Mizz won't hurt us too bad as it's gonna be a Q1a game regardless.
Click to expand...

Really hope you're right!

Same feeling I had last year going into the TN game on the road. Just feel like if we can win that, we can lock in that 3 seed.

Really, REALLY don't want to drop to a 4 seed, I just know (with all my heart) that if they drop us to a 4 seed, we'll be the 4 seed in Duke's region. Just like how they paired us with IU in 2012 after they beat us in the regular season.

It will 100% happen.
 
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Right now most of the so-called experts in bracketology still have us as a 3 seed.

Right now, there’s just not much movement, because most teams have already built their resumes. Not going to see major movement unless you do something earth shattering like beat a better team by double digits on the road.

There’s 30 games of data on each team this time of year, so one game isn’t going to move you much, unless it’s a terrible loss moving you down a bit or it’s a great win bringing you up slightly.

I don’t think UK will move up or down much regardless of what we do. Our big wins are still big wins, and there are no bad losses left on our potential schedule. Every game from here on out is a Quad 1 or Quad 2 opportunity.
 
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Tampa_cat54 said:
Really hope you're right!

Same feeling I had last year going into the TN game on the road. Just feel like if we can win that, we can lock in that 3 seed.

Really, REALLY don't want to drop to a 4 seed, I just know (with all my heart) that if they drop us to a 4 seed, we'll be the 4 seed in Duke's region. Just like how they paired us with IU in 2012 after they beat us in the regular season.

It will 100% happen.
Click to expand...

Yeah I guess a 4-seed is definitely still on the table if we implode, like losing to Mizz and losing the opening SECT game. The hope there is that enough other teams around us lose games also before the rest of the season ends.

I feel pretty safe about us being a 3-seed.. and I would agree, would love to avoid a 4-seed and potentially play the 1-seed in the 3rd round (if we get that far). I think Kentucky can handle anyone outside of the Auburn/Duke/Bama tier.. and that's going to be the 1-seeds. But the 2-seeds, like Wisconsin/MSU/Tenn/ISU are all very much beatable for this UK team.

I'm just glad that we're safely in the 4-seed or better range. That's high enough that I think UK *should* coast past it's 13-seed and be favored against the 5-seed. Really didn't want to fall into the 5/6 or even 7-seed range. WHich very well could have happened if we didn't get some easier opponents in OU/LSU/Vandy.
 
bucsrule8872 said:
Right now most of the so-called experts in bracketology still have us as a 3 seed.

Right now, there’s just not much movement, because most teams have already built their resumes. Not going to see major movement unless you do something earth shattering like beat a better team by double digits on the road.

There’s 30 games of data on each team this time of year, so one game isn’t going to move you much, unless it’s a terrible loss moving you down a bit or it’s a great win bringing you up slightly.

I don’t think UK will move up or down much regardless of what we do. Our big wins are still big wins, and there are no bad losses left on our potential schedule. Every game from here on out is a Quad 1 or Quad 2 opportunity.
Click to expand...
I agree with this. I think today we are probably the last 3 seed. But there are teams nipping at our heels for sure. I can see an instance where we lose to Mizzou, beat a crappy SEC team first round and lose to a top 4 seed in the SEC and end up the highest 4 seed.

Just looking at bracket matrix, the difference between a 3/4 seed is quite significant. Playing an Iowa St/Michigan St/Texas Tech vs Auburn/Duke/Houston in the sweet 16 would be quite a difference.
 
Chief Paducah said:
I agree with this. I think today we are probably the last 3 seed. But there are teams nipping at our heels for sure. I can see an instance where we lose to Mizzou, beat a crappy SEC team first round and lose to a top 4 seed in the SEC and end up the highest 4 seed.

Just looking at bracket matrix, the difference between a 3/4 seed is quite significant. Playing an Iowa St/Michigan St/Texas Tech vs Auburn/Duke/Houston in the sweet 16 would be quite a difference.
Click to expand...
The biggest gap to me is between the last 2 seeds and the top six.

Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee are fighting for a 1 seed. Four will get them and then two more will drop to the 2 seed line.

Right now Michigan St. and Wisconsin are the last 2 seeds (according to Bracket Matrix). To me, they are a big step down from those top six.

The last two 2 seeds are on par with the 3’s and 4’s. So, two lucky 3 seeds are going to get a 2 seed that should be a 3 (IMHO), while two unlucky ones will get 2 seeds that are really 1 seed material.

So while a 3 seed is better, how much better will depend on which 2 seed they stick you with.
 
bucsrule8872 said:
The biggest gap to me is between the last 2 seeds and the top six.

Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee are fighting for a 1 seed. Four will get them and then two more will drop to the 2 seed line.

Right now Michigan St. and Wisconsin are the last 2 seeds (according to Bracket Matrix). To me, they are a big step down from those top six.

The last two 2 seeds are on par with the 3’s and 4’s. So, two lucky 3 seeds are going to get a 2 seed that should be a 3 (IMHO), while two unlucky ones will get 2 seeds that are really 1 seed material.

So while a 3 seed is better, how much better will depend on which 2 seed they stick you with.
Click to expand...
I will be ecstatic if we have the opportunity to play against a 1 or 2 seed . Means we’ve had our best season in a while.
 
I thought I read somewhere UK can still get the 5 seed for the SEC Tournament.
Have to beat Missouri
Ole Miss lose @ Florida
Texas A&M lose @ LSU

UK, A&M, Ole Miss, Missouri would all finish 10-8. The kicker is Florida beating Alabama last night and because of it, if the 4 teams finish tied, UK wins the tiebreaker.

GD, my head hurts now. The biggest reach is LSU will have to play way above their talent level, but they are at home and have played better there. Only lost to Tenn. by 6 and should have won.

EDIT : The tiebreaker for 3 or more teams tied in the standings goes to the best winning % against all the other teams.
UK would be 2-1 - Loss to Ole Miss (beat A&M, would have beaten Missouri with a win)
A&M - 2-1 loss to UK (beat Ole Miss and Missouri)
Missouri - 1-2 (with losses to UK and A&M) Beat Ole Miss
Ole Miss - 1-2 (with losses to A&M and Missouri) Beat UK

UK and A&M both finish 2-1 against teams tied at 10-8. Tiebreaker for remaining teams tied after winning % v/s other tied teams goes to head to head of remaining tied teams. UK win because of head to head matchup, UK beating A&M.
 
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It looks like Lunardi just put us on the 4 line. aTm moves to a 3, but I thought they were already a 3???

I don't see Arizona, Michigan or Purdue moving ahead of us.

This game on Saturday is massive.
 
I could be wrong, but I see us as firmly on the 3 seed line right now.

We were 10 in the SC reveal a few weeks back and have done nothing to hurt our resume. No bad losses. We haven’t lost a Quad 2 game since February 1st (14 days before the reveal). No Quad 3 or 4 losses.

Our only losses have been to Quad 1 teams.

We lost to Texas that night. Close game, on the road. Q1 loss. We destroyed Vandy at home. Q2 win. Lost a Q1A game at Bama. Won a close Q1 game against OU. Lost a Q1A game to Auburn. Beat the brakes off of LSU. Q3 win.

So where did we slip? We lost to good teams who were, by the metrics, suppose to beat us. We beat the teams we were suppose to beat.

And who else has caught fire and passed us up?

St. John’s maybe.

Michigan St. wasn’t even in the top 16, but they have been on a tear lately.

Wisconsin beat Purdue on the road, but they lost at home to Oregon. How does that compare to losing to Auburn or Bama? I think we win that comparison.

Also, look at Iowa St., who was a spot ahead of us and have had some worse losses.

Purdue was at 7, and they have lost to IU, Michigan St., and Wisconsin.

Michigan has fallen out of the top 16, I would think.

So, while we haven’t climbed any higher, we shouldn’t have slipped any either.

We will be a 3 or 4 seed when all is said and done. Probably a 3 seed, unless some other teams get hot. Of course, if teams below us get hot in the tourney, it’s probably at the expense of some teams above us, so it kind of balances out.
 
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ImTheVillageIdiot said:
They were a 4. That’s why TXAM beating Auburn was terrible for us
Click to expand...
But they were a 2 in the SC reveal, so since the reveal they have actually fallen below us and then climbed back up.

In the grand scheme of things, not terrible for us.

St. John’s and Michigan St. going on a tear has hurt us. Of course, balance that with Iowa St. and Michigan slumping.
 
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bucsrule8872 said:
I could be wrong, but I see us as firmly on the 3 seed line right now.

We were 10 in the SC reveal a few weeks back and have done nothing to hurt our resume. No bad losses. We haven’t lost a Quad 2 game since February 1st (14 days before the reveal). No Quad 3 or 4 losses.

Our only losses have been to Quad 1 teams.

We lost to Texas that night. Close game, on the road. Q1 loss. We destroyed Vandy at home. Q2 win. Lost a Q1A game at Bama. Won a close Q1 game against OU. Lost a Q1A game to Auburn. Beat the brakes off of LSU. Q3 win.

So where did we slip? We lost to good teams who were, by the metrics, suppose to beat us. We beat the teams we were suppose to beat.

And who else has caught fire and passed us up?

St. John’s maybe.

Michigan St. wasn’t even in the top 16, but they have been on a tear lately.

Wisconsin beat Purdue on the road, but they lost at home to Oregon. How does that compare to losing to Auburn or Bama? I think we win that comparison.

Also, look at Iowa St., who was a spot ahead of us and have had some worse losses.

Purdue was at 7, and they have lost to IU, Michigan St., and Wisconsin.

Michigan has fallen out of the top 16, I would think.

So, while we haven’t climbed any higher, we shouldn’t have slipped any either.

We will be a 3 or 4 seed when all is said and done. Probably a 3 seed, unless other some teams get hot. Of course, if teams below us get hot in the tourney, it’s probably at the expense of some teams above us, so it kind of balances out.
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Agreed.

The top 7 is locked in. Feel like spots 8-14 are up in the air right now and depending on results this weekend could go any other way. Pretty clear separation between the consensus 14th team, Purdue, and whoever is the 15th team - Arizona, Clemson, Maryland.

Think if we win on Saturday then we’ve got a great shot at the last 2. Likely would have a top 8 resume average in addition to 10 Q1 wins and 7 Q1A wins which none of the other teams we’re competing against would have.

With a loss, I don’t see us falling below 13 or 14 overall. Would probably need some combination of losses from St John’s, Iowa St, A&M, Texas Tech, or Purdue to stay 3. Preferably 3 take a loss and you stay a 3.

So with a win and probable 2 seed you’d very likely be sent out west with Florida as the 1 seed. 3 seed would likely be Texas Tech.

Staying a 3 seed would be tough to predict but likely in either Auburn or Floridas region.

If we drop to a 4 seed we would probably be in MW region with Houston as the 1. Likely UT or Bama as the 2 with Wisconsin as the 3.
 
bucsrule8872 said:
I could be wrong, but I see us as firmly on the 3 seed line right now.

We were 10 in the SC reveal a few weeks back and have done nothing to hurt our resume. No bad losses. We haven’t lost a Quad 2 game since February 1st (14 days before the reveal). No Quad 3 or 4 losses.

Our only losses have been to Quad 1 teams.

We lost to Texas that night. Close game, on the road. Q1 loss. We destroyed Vandy at home. Q2 win. Lost a Q1A game at Bama. Won a close Q1 game against OU. Lost a Q1A game to Auburn. Beat the brakes off of LSU. Q3 win.

So where did we slip? We lost to good teams who were, by the metrics, suppose to beat us. We beat the teams we were suppose to beat.

And who else has caught fire and passed us up?

St. John’s maybe.

Michigan St. wasn’t even in the top 16, but they have been on a tear lately.

Wisconsin beat Purdue on the road, but they lost at home to Oregon. How does that compare to losing to Auburn or Bama? I think we win that comparison.

Also, look at Iowa St., who was a spot ahead of us and have had some worse losses.

Purdue was at 7, and they have lost to IU, Michigan St., and Wisconsin.

Michigan has fallen out of the top 16, I would think.

So, while we haven’t climbed any higher, we shouldn’t have slipped any either.

We will be a 3 or 4 seed when all is said and done. Probably a 3 seed, unless other some teams get hot. Of course, if teams below us get hot in the tourney, it’s probably at the expense of some teams above us, so it kind of balances out.
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Agreed.

The top 7 is locked in. Feel like spots 8-14 are up in the air right now and depending on results this weekend could go any other way. Pretty clear separation between the consensus 14th team, Purdue, and whoever is the 15th team - Arizona, Clemson, Maryland.

Think if we win on Saturday then we’ve got a great shot at the last 2. Likely would have a top 8 resume average in addition to 10 Q1 wins and 7 Q1A wins which none of the other teams were competing against would have.

With a loss, I don’t see us falling below 13 or 14 overall. Would probably need some combination of losses from St John’s, Iowa St, A&M, Texas Tech, or Purdue to take a L this weekend to stay 3. Preferably 3 take a loss and you stay a 3.

So with a win and probable 2 seed you’d very likely be sent out west with Florida as the 1 seed. 3 seed would likely be Texas Tech.

Staying a 3 seed would be tough to predict but likely in either Auburn or Florida’s region.

If we drop to a 4 seed we would probably be in MW region with Houston as the 1. Likely UT or Bama as the 2 with Wisconsin as the 3.
 
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Here are all of the teams currently on the 3/4 seed lines :
(3"s)
Wisconsin - Quad 1 (6-7) Quad 2 (9-0) Net rank #14
St. Johns - Quad 1 (3-4) Quad 2 (10-0) Net rank #19
Iowa State - Quad 1 (5-5) Quad 2 (8-2) Net rank #9
Texas A&M - Quad 1 (7-7) Quad 2 (8-2) Net rank #20

(4s)
Arizona - Quad 1 (7-10) Quad 2 (5-0) Net rank #10
Maryland - Quad 1 (7-6) Quad 2 (5-1) Net rank #12
Purdue - Quad 1 (7-8) Quad 2 (8-1) Net rank #15
UK - Quad 1 (9-9) Quad 2 (1-1) Net rank #12

I guess what could be hurting is the lack of Quad 2 wins. We have only played 2 all year.

I see UK as the top #3 seed IMO. Played 18 Quad 1 games. Have more top quality wins than the others. Like I said, lack of Quad 2 win may be pulling us down against teams that have 7/8 Quad 2 wins. But others conference teams are so bad, a lot of their games are quad 2, UK in the SEC not the case. Does any other team have wins like A&M, Florida, Tenn x2, Duke ?
 
If we lose to Missouri and then lose to the say 9 seed n sec tourney that would be a big fat 0-3 against ncwa tourney teams to finish the season once JR was done. I agree we should get a 3 based on overall quality of wins but do not, repeat, do not trust the ncaa committee. If we lay 3 eggs, they will punish UK and drop them a seed line. I hope I'm wrong.
 
Gator Fever said:
View embedded media


That would be an interesting Sweet 16 game if it happens. I kind of hope Baylor beats Houston so we can get Indy possibly though instead of San Francisco.
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If we're on the 4 line now (and I think we are) anything short of a win Saturday basically eliminates the 3 seed. And it brings a 5 in play. Lose at Mizzou and in first round of SECT and I think we're looking directly in the face of a 5 seed. Win that Thursday game in the SECT and I think there's at least hope for a 4 seed.
 
catsfanbgky said:
Here are all of the teams currently on the 3/4 seed lines :
(3"s)
Wisconsin - Quad 1 (6-7) Quad 2 (9-0) Net rank #14
St. Johns - Quad 1 (3-4) Quad 2 (10-0) Net rank #19
Iowa State - Quad 1 (5-5) Quad 2 (8-2) Net rank #9
Texas A&M - Quad 1 (7-7) Quad 2 (8-2) Net rank #20

(4s)
Arizona - Quad 1 (7-10) Quad 2 (5-0) Net rank #10
Maryland - Quad 1 (7-6) Quad 2 (5-1) Net rank #12
Purdue - Quad 1 (7-8) Quad 2 (8-1) Net rank #15
UK - Quad 1 (9-9) Quad 2 (1-1) Net rank #12

I guess what could be hurting is the lack of Quad 2 wins. We have only played 2 all year.

I see UK as the top #3 seed IMO. Played 18 Quad 1 games. Have more top quality wins than the others. Like I said, lack of Quad 2 win may be pulling us down against teams that have 7/8 Quad 2 wins. But others conference teams are so bad, a lot of their games are quad 2, UK in the SEC not the case. Does any other team have wins like A&M, Florida, Tenn x2, Duke ?
Click to expand...
Here is what I don’t understand, why does it matter how many Q2 games you played, when you are replacing Q2 games with Q1?

We’ve played as many Q1 games as most teams have Q1 and Q2 games combined.

So the lack of Q2 games is a weak argument, IMHO.

No way you can justify putting Iowa St. ahead of UK. Both played 20 Q1 and Q2 games combined, but 18 of the 20 UK has played are Q1, while only 10 for Iowa St. are Q1.

And look at St. John’s. They’ve only played 7 Q1 games to our 18. Heck they have only played 17 Q1/Q2 combined games, which is less than just our Q1 games. Also, we are .500 against Q1 and they are below .500.

I thought the days of awarding people for beating up on cup cakes was over?
 
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