First off, let's be real. With so many moving parts and with such limited access there's only so much we can know. But we still talk to plenty of people who give us a range of opinions. We're able to assess the second wave of portal exits and entrees.
Overall, win total betting lines are being set at 4.5 or 5.5 for Kentucky. If I were picking the season today I would probably be right there in that range and would predict them to finish under .500. That said, I don't think it's crazy to hope for 6-6 or 7-5. That's not going to win some people back, but it would be hard to make a change after 6-6 or 7-5. It might be hard to make a change with even worse than that, but there are circumstances that could change. For instance, and I've heard this floated by some as a theory/possibility, Mitch Barnhart could give basketball more money than the rest of the SEC to tighten football's belt, add pressure, and create leverage with a coach who has the contractual leverage.
Kentucky may well surprise me in the fall and if they do I'll eat my crow. That big picture perception after the spring is shaped by some realities.
- There are questions at every position on offense, if you ask me. Zach Calzada may have a good year but he's a question. They added late running back help and I thought that was a question before that. They lost their most talented receivers. There's promising talk about the offensive line but they need to be really good.
- Defensively you may have more trust in Brad White, knowing the prototype and scheme fits he wants, but there's a lot of turnover there, some significant names lost and mostly replaced with lesser known but promising players.
- I did hear that the offense was able to run the ball in the spring and that is a positive for the offense but concerning for the defense.
- One theme that I have heard mentioned time and again is to watch out for the Toledo game. Chip Trayanum had a good spring there and Jason Candle's guys are used to playing against power conference programs. With so much change at Kentucky you can't just say Stoops never loses these games.
- If there is a path to Kentucky having a surprising season I think it hinges on the defensive parts really coming together to gel and play opportunistic football. Given what our baseline expectations should be for offense under Stoops, the defense has to click and then they have to be efficient on offense. The ceiling does seem to be rather low on offense - just talking on paper.
Beyond that, we have to assess the current recruiting. Kentucky has only one 2026 football commitment.
I think over time, with more staff turnover, there have been some subtle changes to the overall operation and how it's run. I think those guys did a quality job on paper of filling so many spots that needed to be filled via the portal with scarce resources. We don't know how it will play out but on paper I think you can look at what they did, knowing the scale of what was required, and you see the logic. That's what I'm saying.
However, it seems like Kentucky is pretty much moving away from area recruiting. I don't think this has been conveyed as an actual change but over time with new guys being hired the way things are done in day to day action changes. It used to be that Kentucky would primarily area recruit. You'd area recruit Ohio and Kentucky if you're Marrow, and then at the opportune time, reading the temperature of a situation you're familiar with, you bring in the position coach, the offensive coordinator, and others. Just saying that as a practical matter it doesn't seem to work like that any more and you are in effect, with more emphasis on position recruiting, punting a really nice advantage you had with the pipeline approach in Ohio and Michigan.
I heard that at one point Archbishop Moeller quarterback Matt Ponatoski might have been about ready to pop but Kentucky didn't push hard and now he's picked up Alabama and others. Just saying there is probably room for the process to improve but with NIL and so much staff turnover it's tough to sustain something that you once had.
My personal view is that Kentucky should probably be picked to finish in the 14th-16th range in the SEC this year and everybody is going to say that. So it is what it is. The goal for this year as I've said should be to get to at least .500 and pray that as many of those 2nd stringers they recruited from the portal this year turn into viable starters for next year, and you're able to keep them so you don't have to go get 20-30 from the portal again next year.
Overall, win total betting lines are being set at 4.5 or 5.5 for Kentucky. If I were picking the season today I would probably be right there in that range and would predict them to finish under .500. That said, I don't think it's crazy to hope for 6-6 or 7-5. That's not going to win some people back, but it would be hard to make a change after 6-6 or 7-5. It might be hard to make a change with even worse than that, but there are circumstances that could change. For instance, and I've heard this floated by some as a theory/possibility, Mitch Barnhart could give basketball more money than the rest of the SEC to tighten football's belt, add pressure, and create leverage with a coach who has the contractual leverage.
Kentucky may well surprise me in the fall and if they do I'll eat my crow. That big picture perception after the spring is shaped by some realities.
- There are questions at every position on offense, if you ask me. Zach Calzada may have a good year but he's a question. They added late running back help and I thought that was a question before that. They lost their most talented receivers. There's promising talk about the offensive line but they need to be really good.
- Defensively you may have more trust in Brad White, knowing the prototype and scheme fits he wants, but there's a lot of turnover there, some significant names lost and mostly replaced with lesser known but promising players.
- I did hear that the offense was able to run the ball in the spring and that is a positive for the offense but concerning for the defense.
- One theme that I have heard mentioned time and again is to watch out for the Toledo game. Chip Trayanum had a good spring there and Jason Candle's guys are used to playing against power conference programs. With so much change at Kentucky you can't just say Stoops never loses these games.
- If there is a path to Kentucky having a surprising season I think it hinges on the defensive parts really coming together to gel and play opportunistic football. Given what our baseline expectations should be for offense under Stoops, the defense has to click and then they have to be efficient on offense. The ceiling does seem to be rather low on offense - just talking on paper.
Beyond that, we have to assess the current recruiting. Kentucky has only one 2026 football commitment.
I think over time, with more staff turnover, there have been some subtle changes to the overall operation and how it's run. I think those guys did a quality job on paper of filling so many spots that needed to be filled via the portal with scarce resources. We don't know how it will play out but on paper I think you can look at what they did, knowing the scale of what was required, and you see the logic. That's what I'm saying.
However, it seems like Kentucky is pretty much moving away from area recruiting. I don't think this has been conveyed as an actual change but over time with new guys being hired the way things are done in day to day action changes. It used to be that Kentucky would primarily area recruit. You'd area recruit Ohio and Kentucky if you're Marrow, and then at the opportune time, reading the temperature of a situation you're familiar with, you bring in the position coach, the offensive coordinator, and others. Just saying that as a practical matter it doesn't seem to work like that any more and you are in effect, with more emphasis on position recruiting, punting a really nice advantage you had with the pipeline approach in Ohio and Michigan.
I heard that at one point Archbishop Moeller quarterback Matt Ponatoski might have been about ready to pop but Kentucky didn't push hard and now he's picked up Alabama and others. Just saying there is probably room for the process to improve but with NIL and so much staff turnover it's tough to sustain something that you once had.
My personal view is that Kentucky should probably be picked to finish in the 14th-16th range in the SEC this year and everybody is going to say that. So it is what it is. The goal for this year as I've said should be to get to at least .500 and pray that as many of those 2nd stringers they recruited from the portal this year turn into viable starters for next year, and you're able to keep them so you don't have to go get 20-30 from the portal again next year.
