Portland fouls up 3……and wins.

[HenryMuto]

And Butler now showing you why you don't foul up 3 with 11 seconds left..............you can't foul with that much time left they give up the 2 FT's and then they turn it over on the inbounds with 10 seconds left.

The point of fouling up 3 is to make the other team miss the 2nd FT you never foul with too much time left.

Butler could have ended up losing when up 3 with 11 seconds left because they fouled up 3 but they did it with WAY WAY too much time left.

You want to foul up 3 with less than 5 seconds left to force a miss on the 2nd FT

 

[mcnicKY91]

And our HOF Coach doesn’t.

I swear…..

Butler is up 97-94 with 12 secs tonight against Creighton. Butler decides to foul with 11 secs left. Creighton makes both free throws to trail by one. Butler then turns the ball over on inbounds pass, giving Creighton a chance to win the game with 11 secs left.

 

[HenryMuto]

Butler continues to show you how NOT to do it they got lucky and Creighton turned it over down 1 with 8 seconds left and after Butler lucks out with a guy off the bench subbing for an injured 96% FT shooter hits both with 6 seconds left they foul in the backcourt !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You should wait till they get in front court and run time off they only ran off less than 1 freaking second.

Then they turned it over again but lucky for them Creighton screwed up and lost the ball

Butler survives by 1 in a HOW YOU DO NOT DO IT when fouling up 3

 

[bbncal02]

Butler is up 97-94 with 12 secs tonight against Creighton. Butler decides to foul with 11 secs left. Creighton makes both free throws to trail by one. Butler then turns the ball over on inbounds pass, giving Creighton a chance to win the game with 11 secs left.

Your point? The numbers show that your chances to win go up when you do it. Is it 100%? No. There’s always a chance you will lose. But it’s like 9%. You play the odds and make the smart decision.

 

[HenryMuto]

I would foul up 3 in most cases I would want the foul to come where the time on the clock will force the other team to miss the 2nd FT is the key though like under 5 seconds the reason you don't want to foul with too much time left is if they make both FT's you are now setting yourself up to lose in regulation.

Look no further then the Butler game fouling with 11 seconds left gave Creighton not 1 but 2 chances to win the game in regulation down 1.

If you turn the ball over after they make 2 FT's you could lose and if they foul you and you miss 1 of your FT's you could lose.

Now you have to factor in how the other team shoots the 3 and how they offensive rebound but in most cases foul up 3 with under 5 seconds left.

 

[FirewithFire]

Do you trust a Cal coached team to shoot free throws for the win? Given past history I'm not sure I would.

That brick Dillingham threw at the rim to seal the UF game makes me wonder about more than just free throw shooting.

 

[EliteBlue]

IMHO he was being a Freshman. But that's still on Cal for not calling a TO and preparing the team to close out the game. We LITERALLY gave the game away.

Yep. In that same timeout if you choose not to foul you reiterate “NO HELP D; over guard the 3point line and deny; getting beat backdoor doesn’t matter at all.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I would foul up 3 in most cases I would want the foul to come where the time on the clock will force the other team to miss the 2nd FT is the key though like under 5 seconds the reason you don't want to foul with too much time left is if they make both FT's you are now setting yourself up to lose in regulation.

Look no further then the Butler game fouling with 11 seconds left gave Creighton not 1 but 2 chances to win the game in regulation down 1.

If you turn the ball over after they make 2 FT's you could lose and if they foul you and you miss 1 of your FT's you could lose.

Now you have to factor in how the other team shoots the 3 and how they offensive rebound but in most cases foul up 3 with under 5 seconds left.

That was the exactly logic Cal was using tho and people killed him for this lol.

There was 13 seconds at the start of that possession.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Your point? The numbers show that your chances to win go up when you do it. Is it 100%? No. There’s always a chance you will lose. But it’s like 9%. You play the odds and make the smart decision.

This isn't exactly true.

https://kenpom.com/blog/yet-another-study-about-fouling-when-up-3/

Honestly this combined with Florida's average 3 point shooting, their 2nd in the nation offensive rebounding % and the fact that according to the article teams are better at getting offensive rebounds when they absolutely have to.

Listen I probably still would have fouled in that situation. But it's not very clear cut as people want to make this out to be. If anything the numbers on that page show it's slightly more likely to win when you Don't Foul.

 

[bbncal02]

That was the exactly logic Cal was using tho and people killed him for this lol.

There was 13 seconds at the start of that possession.

And they didn’t try to score until like 8 seconds. You foul. The numbers and the result speak for itself.

 

[bbncal02]

This isn't exactly true.

https://kenpom.com/blog/yet-another-study-about-fouling-when-up-3/

That’s from ten freaking years ago man. Even the Calle on KSR admitted that was outdated.

 

[The_Answer1313]

That’s from ten freaking years ago man. Even the Calle on KSR admitted that was outdated.

Who cares when it was?

What the heck has changed in the past 10 years that would cause the results of this to change?

Teams have taken more 3s lately, but the average of making threes is still the same.

The average this season is 33.7%
The average in 2013 was 33.9%

Nothing has changed as far as the % go. At the end of the day you play it out the opposing team still has a 33% chance of sending it into OT and then a 50% chance of winning in OT even if they make the shot.

If you foul figuring out the % is a bit more complicated but it's fairly obvious there's not a significant method there one over the other.

 

[bbncal02]

Who cares when it was?

What the heck has changed in the past 10 years that would cause the results of this to change?

Teams have taken more 3s lately, but the average of making threes is still the same.

The average this season is 33.7%
The average in 2013 was 33.9%

Nothing has changed as far as the % go. At the end of the day you play it out the opposing team still has a 33% chance of sending it into OT and then a 50% chance of winning in OT even if they make the shot.

lol. Really man? Come on. Hell yes the sport has change a TON in a decade.

We lost because of it. It was a bad decision.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Just because the sport has changed doesn't mean that this particular aspect has changed.

Based on win probability it's the same as it was 10 years ago.