POLL: The Ultimate Question, it seems to me ??

[megablue]

This will be a very interesting season, no question, and will enable all to evaluate the high-level success potential of relying so heavily on the three-point shot. Clearly, the potential is there to blow teams away on hot-shooting nights, but do/will the rims tighten up during the NCAA tournament ??
GO CATS !!

 

[catlogic15]

And it will most likely. Happened to BYU in the first round last year. Lost as an 11 point (I think) favorite.

 

[JumperJack]

Great question. Probably not. Elite defense is a must.

 

[zoid1]

I think we can hold our own offensively. The question is will our defense be great for 6 straight?

 

[blue cincy]

I watched several BYU games from last year. There were games where Pope had a lineup to take the ball down low and score because of 3 not hitting or teams taking away the 3. They won 2 of the ones I watched and in both cases, going down low got them back in the game and then 3s opened up late to take the game over.

The one big difference is this team can and will play defense. Pope made 100% sure of it with the portal picks. Not sure what types of defense (meaning pressing, or more like Tubby ball line, or something different) but they will play defense.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

I doubt it. As this board likes to do with other teams, it is difficult to shoot well 6 games in a roll.

 

[FitchandMurray29]

Villanova 17-18 averaged 30+ 3 point attempts in their tourney run. They had a couple games in that run with at least 40.

I think BYU averaged like 32 a game last year. I think it’ll be hard for them to hit 35+ consistently enough to average that kind've number. I think to hit 35+ as an average they’ll have to play 5 out with a shooter at every position. Neither Garrison nor Williams can shoot them. We also figure to play Lamont a good chunk of minutes at the 1 where he won’t really be a sniper by any means.

Using the Villanova example in 17-18 they went 4-24 from 3 against Texas Tech who had a top 5 defense. Their volume and efficiency were both solid or better in the other 5 games.

 

[BBNinSC]

I think this team will be really good to great defensively. Butler and Oweh would be the best defensive backcourt in the country. Williams is a proven post defender and I believe Garrison will become another good defender.
If we get into sync, and I believe they will, Kentucky will have an elite team defense

 

[YardCat]

I believe that we can make a good run, I’m not worried about winning 6 in a row. Right now, I would love to win the first game and make it to the 2nd weekend.

 

[megablue]

I believe that we can make a good run, I’m not worried about winning 6 in a row. Right now, I would love to win the first game and make it to the 2nd weekend.

I understand, but am not talking about this year's team specifically. I'm talking about any program using such an dramatic emphasis on three-point shot as a standard offensive philosophy.

 

[NociHTTP]

As long as Cal's team is guarding you, yes.

 

[chroix]

I understand, but am not talking about this year's team specifically. I'm talking about any program using such an dramatic emphasis on three-point shot as a standard offensive philosophy.

I think it is out of necessity this season more than a set in stone strategy going forward.

 

[megablue]

I think it is out of necessity this season more than a set in stone strategy going forward.

I see. I didn't realize that. I thought the scheme was based on general analytics and not specific to this year.

 

[bucsrule8872]

It really depends on how well you shoot 3’s. If the team shoots 35 and makes them at a decent clip, they are going to be hard to beat.

 

[JonathanW]

That is why, as we saw last year, why you need to play good DEFENSE. Good Defense is much more consistent than good Offense. Ideally you want both. Sometimes you need to outscore a team, and sometimes you need to shutdown a team.

 

[chroix]

I see. I didn't realize that. I thought the scheme was based on general analytics and not specific to this year.

I could be wrong but I think we’ll shoot a lot more than we have in future seasons but this might be the high water mark. Probably depends on what he’s got on the bench.

 

[JonathanW]

It really depends on how well you shoot 3’s. If the team shoots 35 and makes them at a decent clip, they are going to be hard to beat.

The "decent clip" thing is important. But even for a team that makes 40% from 3, they are going to have nights where they make <30%, <25%, maybe even <20%. Last year we made an amazing 40.9% of our 3's. But last year in 13 of our 33 of our games we made <30% of our 3's, in 8 of our games we made <25%, and in 1 game we made <20%.

Can you find other ways to score when nobody is making them?
Can you lockdown the other team, when you are having trouble scoring?

 

[Skyguyb27]

As long as Cal's team is guarding you, yes.

Cal doesn’t participate in tournaments.



Late March legs get tired and big stage jitters. I think they can win it doing it but the percentage will go down and defense will need to supplement lower percentage of 3s.

 

[Joerules19]

It really depends on how well you shoot 3’s. If the team shoots 35 and makes them at a decent clip, they are going to be hard to beat.

True, but there are going to be around 5 games a year when a good shooting team isn't shooting that well. Someone earlier mentioned the 17/18 Nova team. They had four regular season losses. In 3 of them, they shot under 30% from three and lost. It's hard to string six games in a row. I looked up the Texas Tech game were they were miserable in the tourney (yet won). They shot 33% from the field and 16% from 3, yet won by 12. How the f does that happen? Don't remember the game but they must have played great d and they hit 29 of 35 free throws. Point is, it is difficult for a team to win 6 in a row in the tourney if you rely on the 3 a ton, but it can be done

 

[megablue]

That is why, as we saw last year, why you need to play good DEFENSE. Good Defense is much more consistent than good Offense. Ideally you want both. Sometimes you need to outscore a team, and sometimes you need to shutdown a team.

The way I see it, pretty much, a really good team should be more likely to always play well defensively, whereas off-shooting needs are likely to occur every now and then.

 

[megablue]

That is why, as we saw last year, why you need to play good DEFENSE. Good Defense is much more consistent than good Offense. Ideally you want both. Sometimes you need to outscore a team, and sometimes you need to shutdown a team.

The way I see it, pretty much, a really good team should be more likely to always play well defensively, whereas off-shooting nights are likely to occur every now and then.

 

[megablue]

True, but there are going to be around 5 games a year when a good shooting team isn't shooting that well. Someone earlier mentioned the 17/18 Nova team. They had four regular season losses. In 3 of them, they shot under 30% from three and lost. It's hard to string six games in a row. I looked up the Texas Tech game were they were miserable in the tourney (yet won). They shot 33% from the field and 16% from 3, yet won by 12. How the f does that happen? Don't remember the game but they must have played great d and they hit 29 of 35 free throws. Point is, it is difficult for a team to win 6 in a row in the tourney if you rely on the 3 a ton, but it can be done

Very well-stated ... !!
Here is the box score, for those interested. Villanova shot only 24, not 35 threes, however.

Villanova 71-59 Texas Tech (Mar 25, 2018) Box Score - ESPN

Box score for the Villanova Wildcats vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders NCAAM game from March 25, 2018 on ESPN. Includes all points, rebounds and steals stats.

www.espn.com

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Very well-stated ... !!
Here is the box score, for those interested. Villanova shot only 24, not 35 threes, however.

Villanova 71-59 Texas Tech (Mar 25, 2018) Box Score - ESPN

Box score for the Villanova Wildcats vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders NCAAM game from March 25, 2018 on ESPN. Includes all points, rebounds and steals stats.

www.espn.com

You got to have other options when the 3 ball isn't falling.

That Nova team is one of the most dominant champions I've seen of late.

 

[megablue]

I've shared this data from last year before, but it might add to the discussion in this thread:

Statistics of the top 25 teams, ranked by number of three-point attempts per game for the year
							OFF	DEF	MGN
	ATT	3PT%	FTA	ORB	DRB	REBS	PTS	PTS	PTS	W	L
NORTH FLORIDA	33.2	36.03%	16.9	8.88	24.75	33.63	78.0	75.8	2.2	16	16
BYU	32.0	34.77%	16.1	11.91	27.59	39.50	81.4	69.9	11.5	23	11
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON	30.6	34.33%	17.9	13.06	26.71	39.77	80.9	73.6	7.3	27	8
ALABAMA	29.9	37.27%	22.8	12.76	26.89	39.65	90.1	81.2	8.9	25	12
FURMAN	29.9	32.39%	20.0	11.24	26.55	37.79	79.5	75.9	3.6	17	16
CORNELL	29.7	34.75%	16.7	9.57	25.87	35.44	82.1	74.7	7.4	22	8
PRINCETON	29.4	35.60%	16.1	8.41	24.90	33.31	77.1	66.6	10.5	24	5
CHATTANOOGA	29.4	35.94%	18.2	9.24	27.30	36.54	78.2	71.6	6.6	21	12
CREIGHTON	29.1	36.84%	14.8	8.40	29.71	38.11	80.4	69.9	10.5	25	10
ARKANSAS - PINE BLUFF	29.0	37.53%	22.0	8.42	26.19	34.61	80.1	81.8	-1.7	13	18
UTSA	28.8	33.73%	21.9	13.09	27.19	40.28	77.6	81.0	-3.4	11	21
INDIANA STATE	28.7	38.16%	19.3	7.15	28.31	35.46	84.8	73.2	11.6	32	7
KENNESAW STATE	28.6	32.88%	22.0	12.26	26.58	38.84	82.8	80.8	2.0	15	16
SAINT JOSEPH'S	28.5	35.24%	17.1	10.09	25.71	35.80	75.5	70.5	5.0	21	14
WILLIAM & MARY	27.8	32.31%	18.8	10.33	24.85	35.18	69.8	72.1	-2.3	10	23
LIBERTY	27.5	36.82%	14.8	8.72	25.25	33.97	73.8	65.5	8.3	18	14
VILLANOVA	27.4	33.76%	15.3	8.47	26.35	34.82	70.2	65.6	4.6	18	16
NEW HAMPSHIRE	27.4	32.43%	18.2	9.19	28.23	37.42	74.1	74.1	0.0	16	15
YOUNGSTOWN STATE	27.2	32.34%	18.4	12.78	27.19	39.97	81.2	70.9	10.3	22	10
HOFSTRA	27.0	37.08%	12.5	7.70	25.06	32.76	74.2	68.5	5.7	20	13
PITTSBURGH	26.9	35.74%	18.5	11.39	25.67	37.06	75.6	67.6	8.0	22	11
ARKANSAS STATE	26.8	34.41%	20.6	13.22	25.14	38.36	78.8	77.0	1.8	20	17
WOFFORD	26.6	35.92%	16.6	10.53	26.66	37.19	74.5	73.8	0.7	17	15
GEORGIA SOUTHERN	26.6	35.19%	17.3	10.52	23.73	34.25	73.3	79.2	-5.9	9	24
UC - RIVERSIDE	26.6	31.75%	17.8	12.35	24.59	36.94	70.7	72.0	-1.3	16	18
AVERAGES	28.6	34.93%	18.0	10.39	26.28	36.67	77.8	73.3	4.5	19	14
UCONN	23.8	35.75%	18.9	11.72	27.10	38.82	81.4	63.4	18.0	37	3
KENTUCKY	24.2	40.88%	19.7	10.06	27.55	37.61	89.0	79.7	9.3	23	10

	​	​	​	​						​

 

[megablue]

You got to have other options when the 3 ball isn't falling.

That Nova team is one of the most dominant champions I've seen of late.

Yes. They were hard-nosed and tough on both ends of the court.

 

[megablue]

Games where Kentucky shot 35 (or more) threes in game, from Pitino on … only twenty-six (26) times in 35 years:
	DATE	OPPONENT	3PT	3PTA	3PT%	FT	FTA	FT%	OFF	DEF	W	L
Pitino	12/04/1989	Mississippi State	13	35	0.371	25	37	0.676	102	97	1
Pitino	12/06/1989	Tennessee Tech	18	41	0.439	11	15	0.733	111	75	1
Pitino	12/09/1989	Kansas	17	40	0.425	18	25	0.720	95	150		1
Pitino	12/19/1989	Furman	19	47	0.404	11	16	0.688	104	73	1
Pitino	12/23/1989	SW Louisiana	15	53	0.283	12	15	0.800	113	116		1
Pitino	12/27/1989	North Carolina	21	48	0.438	11	13	0.846	110	121		1
Pitino	01/06/1990	Vanderbilt	12	37	0.324	11	17	0.647	85	92		1
Pitino	01/13/1990	Louisiana State	17	46	0.370	8	13	0.615	81	94		1
Pitino	12/21/1990	Western Kentucky	9	36	0.250	17	24	0.708	84	70	1
Pitino	01/05/1991	Louisiana State	17	37	0.459	12	21	0.571	93	80	1
Pitino	01/26/1991	Alabama	11	36	0.306	8	13	0.615	83	88		1
Pitino	02/05/1991	Louisiana State	8	40	0.200	24	32	0.750	88	107		1
Pitino	11/22/1991	Pittsburgh	7	36	0.194	18	27	0.667	85	67		1
Pitino	02/02/1992	Louisiana State	8	44	0.182	7	10	0.700	53	74		1
Pitino	01/03/1993	Indiana	16	41	0.390	9	17	0.529	81	78	1
Pitino	03/14/1993	Louisiana State	14	44	0.318	6	10	0.600	82	65	1
Pitino	02/09/1994	Arkansas	10	40	0.250	14	26	0.538	82	90		1
Pitino	02/15/1994	Louisiana State	15	37	0.405	10	21	0.476	99	95	1
Pitino	03/12/1994	Arkansas	16	36	0.444	16	24	0.667	90	78	1
Pitino	03/20/1994	Marquette	10	38	0.263	5	9	0.556	63	75		1	NCAA
Pitino	01/07/1995	South Carolina	17	37	0.459	9	12	0.750	80	55	1
Pitino	03/04/1995	Louisiana State	20	35	0.571	25	32	0.781	127	80	1
Pitino	03/25/1995	North Carolina	7	36	0.194	12	16	0.750	61	74		1	NCAA
Smith	11/10/2000	UCLA	13	36	0.361	17	28	0.607	92	97		1
Calipari	11/14/2023	Kansas	12	38	0.316	22	30	0.733	84	89		1
Calipari	01/13/2024	Texas A &M	15	39	0.385	13	21	0.619	92	97		1
	26	Totals	357	1033	0.345	351	524	0.668	2320	2277	11	15
	26	Averages	13.7	39.7	0.345	13.5	20.2	0.668	89.2	87.6

 

[megablue]

Three-point shooting and selected stats over the years, including summary by each coach:
COACH	SEASON	GAMES	3PTA/GM	3PT	3PTA	3PT%	OFF	DEF	MGN	WINS	LOSS	WIN%	COACH
PITINO	1989-90	28	28.9	281	810	0.347	88.8	87.9	0.9	14	14	0.500	PITINO
PITINO	1990-91	28	25.5	242	715	0.338	85.9	78.1	7.8	22	6	0.786	PITINO
PITINO	1991-92	36	24.7	317	888	0.357	85.7	74.4	11.3	29	7	0.806	PITINO
PITINO	1992-93	34	25.4	340	862	0.394	87.5	69.8	17.7	30	4	0.882	PITINO
PITINO	1993-94	34	25.2	301	857	0.351	86.9	74.6	12.3	27	7	0.794	PITINO
PITINO	1994-95	33	22.3	276	736	0.375	87.4	69.0	18.4	28	5	0.848	PITINO
PITINO	1995-96	36	18.6	266	670	0.397	91.4	69.4	22.0	34	2	0.944	PITINO
PITINO	1996-98	40	19.4	287	777	0.369	83.1	62.8	20.3	35	5	0.875	PITINO
SMITH	1997-98	39	17.5	250	681	0.367	80.1	67.0	13.1	35	4	0.897	SMITH
SMITH	1998-99	37	18.3	226	676	0.334	75.4	62.7	12.7	28	9	0.757	SMITH
SMITH	1999-00	33	19.5	188	643	0.292	69.1	62.8	6.3	23	10	0.697	SMITH
SMITH	2000-01	34	20.8	245	707	0.347	79.8	70.6	9.2	24	10	0.706	SMITH
SMITH	2001-02	32	21.6	219	692	0.316	76.9	68.2	8.7	22	10	0.688	SMITH
SMITH	2002-03	36	16.3	208	585	0.356	77.3	64.1	13.2	32	4	0.889	SMITH
SMITH	2003-04	32	17.9	204	572	0.357	73.9	63.6	10.3	27	5	0.844	SMITH
SMITH	2004-05	34	18.7	218	635	0.343	73.6	62.6	11.0	28	6	0.824	SMITH
SMITH	2005-06	35	21.7	265	758	0.350	70.8	66.2	4.6	22	13	0.629	SMITH
SMITH	2006-07	34	19.1	231	651	0.355	73.4	67.7	5.7	22	12	0.647	SMITH
GILLISPIE	2007-08	31	15.9	182	493	0.369	68.5	65.6	2.9	18	13	0.581	GILLISPIE
GILLISPIE	2008-09	36	15.9	202	573	0.353	74.1	66.3	7.8	22	14	0.611	GILLISPIE
CALIPARI	2009-10	38	18.3	231	697	0.331	79.3	64.9	14.4	35	3	0.921	CALIPARI
CALIPARI	2010-11	38	18.6	281	707	0.397	74.9	63.5	11.4	29	9	0.763	CALIPARI
CALIPARI	2011-12	40	14.9	225	595	0.378	77.4	60.6	16.8	38	2	0.950	CALIPARI
CALIPARI	2012-13	33	16.1	184	532	0.346	72.6	64.5	8.1	21	12	0.636	CALIPARI
CALIPARI	2013-14	40	15.3	203	611	0.332	74.8	66.6	8.2	29	11	0.725	CALIPARI
CALIPARI	2014-15	39	14.9	203	582	0.349	74.4	54.3	20.1	38	1	0.974	CALIPARI
CALIPARI	2015-16	36	18.5	244	666	0.366	79.5	68.1	11.4	27	9	0.750	CALIPARI
CALIPARI	2016-17	38	19.9	267	756	0.353	84.9	71.5	13.4	32	6	0.842	CALIPARI
CALIPARI	2017-18	37	14.8	195	546	0.357	76.8	70.2	6.6	26	11	0.703	CALIPARI
CALIPARI	2018-19	37	16.4	215	607	0.354	75.8	64.7	11.1	30	7	0.811	CALIPARI
CALIPARI	2019-20	31	14.8	157	458	0.343	74.4	66.1	8.3	25	6	0.806	CALIPARI
CALIPARI	2020-21	25	19.0	160	475	0.337	70.4	70.2	0.2	9	16	0.360	CALIPARI
CALIPARI	2021-22	34	17.5	207	596	0.347	79.4	66.6	12.8	26	8	0.765	CALIPARI
CALIPARI	2022-23	34	18.0	213	613	0.347	74.5	67.7	6.8	22	12	0.647	CALIPARI
CALIPARI	2023-24	33	24.2	327	800	0.409	89.0	79.7	9.3	23	10	0.697	CALIPARI
PITINO	8 YRS	269	23.5	2310	6315	0.366	87.0	72.6	14.4	219	50	0.814	PITINO
SMITH	10 YRS	346	19.1	2254	6600	0.342	75.1	65.5	9.6	263	83	0.760	SMITH
GILLISPIE	2 YRS	67	15.9	384	1066	0.360	71.5	66.0	5.5	40	27	0.597	GILLISPIE
CALIPARI	15 YRS	533	17.3	3312	9241	0.358	77.3	66.4	10.9	410	123	0.769	CALIPARI
	35 YRS	1215	19.1	8260	23222	0.356	78.5	67.5	11.0	932	283	0.767