Kentucky's season opener against Central Michigan is just more than a week away and that means it's time to kick football coverage into high gear.
We'll be writing a lot more on the looming UK-CMU matchup over the next 10 or so days, but here's a good place to start: Opposition Research. Learn about the Chippewas and read up on what you should expect to see from the Wildcats' first opponent.
Offensive Scheme & Strategy
CMU's offense enters its second year under coordinator Chris Ostrowsky, also its quarterbacks coach. Tempo is a big emphasis and that was reflected in the numbers: 959 total plays run (about 5-6 more per game than Kentucky). It remains to be seen if the tempo will change with so much personnel turnover, especially at quarterback. CMU did not huddle last year, and they will only be under center very rarely.
The Chippewas aspire to a balanced run-pass ratio which includes plenty of quarterback runs. That shouldn't change with the new quarterback and the number of quarterback runs might actually go up. In fact, last year at quarterback Poljan had 21 pass attempts and 27 carries. That ratio will move much more heavily towards throws, to keep Poljan healthy, but says a lot about what his strengths are as a player. "The designed quarterback runs, it's part of what we do," head coach John Bonamego said at CMU's Media Day.
CMU throws to its backs frequently; Jonathan Ward, its starting back, is the team's leading receiver by catches (48).
This is a team that began last season committing to the run but got a little too pass happy when things turned south. Recommitting to the ground game was a part of the team's resurgence, and they are likely to keep that commitment going into 2018.
Because CMU's kicker does not have a strong leg the Chips might opt to be aggressive when they cross the 50-yard line.
Offensive Personnel Strengths
It's all going to begin and end at quarterback, and optimists can point to Tony Poljan's raw ability and athleticism. He's someone who can rip off gains on the ground and he's got an arm, too. One of CMU's more heralded recruits in recent memory is a big-time talent, so far as Group of Five quarterbacks go, and in spite of his inexperience he could be due for some big games this year.
Poljan seems to have the mind and work ethic to match that athleticism, with Bonamego recently saying, "He studies, he works, he's detailed. I've seen him improve across the board in everything."
But really the offense will be built around running back Jay Ward, who rushed for 1,019 yards (10 TDs) and was a true all-purpose threat, touching the ball in a variety of ways and all over the field.
CMU returns a lot of experience and physicality across the interior of its offensive line as well.
Offensive Personnel Deficiencies
Tight end Tyler Conklin is gone and aside from the losses at receiver, which are severe, his presence will be felt because he gave the CMU offense an added dimension. There is reason to believe CMU will continue targeting the position (Logan Hessbrook had 20 balls thrown his way), but he was a much less efficient receiving tight end than Conklin was.
CMU's starting offensive tackles, Alex Neering and Clay Walderzak, are both seniors but they are both first-year first teamers and average only 273 pounds. John Bonamego has called Walderzak "an extremely strong man" but that still jumps off the page. Recruited as a tight end and only moved to tackle recently, Walderzak was an outstanding blocker as a tight end for the Chippewas, but this is an entirely new challenge. He has struggled with injury issues throughout his collegiate career.
Bonamego himself has acknowledged that while he's built an athletic line capable of handling an up tempo offense, how physical they are will be important.
But the real question is at receiver, where CMU lost 104 catches, about 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns between the departures of Mark Chapman and Corey Willis alone. Couple that with the fact that Poljan is less proven and perhaps less able as a passer than Morris was, and it remains to be seen whether the Chips' outside guys are going to be good enough to keep defenses honest.
Defensive Scheme & Strategy
CMU runs a base 4-3 defense with a fairly traditional look across the board. Every defensive coordinator would lean heavily on an organic pass rush if that's possible, and perhaps that was skewed last year because defensive lineman Joe Ostman was so dominant, leading the FBS in sacks (14).
Defensive Personnel Strengths
The Chips return a good number of starters and starts at most positions, especially at linebacker where Alex Briones, Malik Fountain and Michael Oliver return as first teamers. Replacing Ostman's havoc will be a difficult task but Briones is a capable pass rusher as a weakside linebacker. This will be Fountain's fourth year as a starter and he's been a quality player at the middle linebacker spot.
While Joe Ostman's departure looms large (more on that momentarily), Bonamego is bullish on the Chips' defensive line because of the return of players like Mitch Stanitzek and Nate Brisson-Fast. Aside from junior nose tackle D'Andre Dill (6'1, 310) this isn't a very big group across the front, but they are quick and tough. The returning defensive linemen were disruptive and, even without Ostman, they could be one of the better units in the MAC.
CMU's defensive line adds graduate transfers Marcus Griffin and Sean Adesanya from Arizona and Illinois, respectively, so they have better than average depth up front for a Group of Five program.
While CMU's secondary will largely be new, cornerback Sean Bunting does return a year after picking off five passes and he's a good piece to build around. Defensive coordinator Greg Colby has said that Bunting is a supremely confident player, but spoke of a need to avoid overconfidence which can sometimes lead to gambling and bad decisions. Oregon State transfer Xavier Crawford should start opposite Bunting at corner and he's an X-Factor that could potentially lessen the blow of those departures from last year.
Defensive Personnel Deficiencies
Simply put it is very unlikely that CMU is prepared to effectively replace Ostman, who had 69 tackles, 14 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss a year ago, in only 11 games. He was a one-man wrecking crew and camped out on the backfield of opponents for much of the year. While CMU returns a good deal of experience defensively, nobody comes anywhere near the level of disruptiveness and motor that Ostman produced and sustained in 2017. He had nearly half of CMU's 34-sack total, and by the end of the season the best thing the Chippewas had going for them, arguably as a whole team, was its ability to pressure the passer. To compensate, expect CMU to get creative in generating a pass rush and pressures, but that comes with pitfalls.
CMU's quick but undersized defensive line has been better at getting after the quarterback than stuffing the run and that could be true again.
The one area defensively where CMU could be in for the most regression, beyond the pass rush, is pass defense. That was the best part of the Chippewas' game last season but the team has to replace three of four starters in the secondary and could be putting redshirt freshmen Brandon Brown and Devonni Reed on the field a lot.
Colby himself has expressed optimism regarding the secondary long-term, but has hinted to a learning curve in the beginning.
Special Teams Overview
CMU returns both starting specialists in punter Jack Sheldon and kicker Michael Armstrong.
Sheldon got plenty of work last year (75 punts) and he had a strong 43.4 yard average but a much lower net, which means the Chips' coverage needs to improve. His punts only led to seven fair catches (compare to Matt Panton's 23 for UK).
While Armstrong was a respectable 7/11 on the field goals he does not have much of a leg. There were no attempts beyond 50 yards and he was 0/2 from 40 yards and out last year.
Kick return man Jerrod Davis is someone Kentucky will be prepared for. He averaged 26.6 yards per return and brought one kick to the house last year.
We'll be writing a lot more on the looming UK-CMU matchup over the next 10 or so days, but here's a good place to start: Opposition Research. Learn about the Chippewas and read up on what you should expect to see from the Wildcats' first opponent.
Offensive Scheme & Strategy
CMU's offense enters its second year under coordinator Chris Ostrowsky, also its quarterbacks coach. Tempo is a big emphasis and that was reflected in the numbers: 959 total plays run (about 5-6 more per game than Kentucky). It remains to be seen if the tempo will change with so much personnel turnover, especially at quarterback. CMU did not huddle last year, and they will only be under center very rarely.
The Chippewas aspire to a balanced run-pass ratio which includes plenty of quarterback runs. That shouldn't change with the new quarterback and the number of quarterback runs might actually go up. In fact, last year at quarterback Poljan had 21 pass attempts and 27 carries. That ratio will move much more heavily towards throws, to keep Poljan healthy, but says a lot about what his strengths are as a player. "The designed quarterback runs, it's part of what we do," head coach John Bonamego said at CMU's Media Day.
CMU throws to its backs frequently; Jonathan Ward, its starting back, is the team's leading receiver by catches (48).
This is a team that began last season committing to the run but got a little too pass happy when things turned south. Recommitting to the ground game was a part of the team's resurgence, and they are likely to keep that commitment going into 2018.
Because CMU's kicker does not have a strong leg the Chips might opt to be aggressive when they cross the 50-yard line.
Offensive Personnel Strengths
It's all going to begin and end at quarterback, and optimists can point to Tony Poljan's raw ability and athleticism. He's someone who can rip off gains on the ground and he's got an arm, too. One of CMU's more heralded recruits in recent memory is a big-time talent, so far as Group of Five quarterbacks go, and in spite of his inexperience he could be due for some big games this year.
Poljan seems to have the mind and work ethic to match that athleticism, with Bonamego recently saying, "He studies, he works, he's detailed. I've seen him improve across the board in everything."
But really the offense will be built around running back Jay Ward, who rushed for 1,019 yards (10 TDs) and was a true all-purpose threat, touching the ball in a variety of ways and all over the field.
CMU returns a lot of experience and physicality across the interior of its offensive line as well.
Offensive Personnel Deficiencies
Tight end Tyler Conklin is gone and aside from the losses at receiver, which are severe, his presence will be felt because he gave the CMU offense an added dimension. There is reason to believe CMU will continue targeting the position (Logan Hessbrook had 20 balls thrown his way), but he was a much less efficient receiving tight end than Conklin was.
CMU's starting offensive tackles, Alex Neering and Clay Walderzak, are both seniors but they are both first-year first teamers and average only 273 pounds. John Bonamego has called Walderzak "an extremely strong man" but that still jumps off the page. Recruited as a tight end and only moved to tackle recently, Walderzak was an outstanding blocker as a tight end for the Chippewas, but this is an entirely new challenge. He has struggled with injury issues throughout his collegiate career.
Bonamego himself has acknowledged that while he's built an athletic line capable of handling an up tempo offense, how physical they are will be important.
But the real question is at receiver, where CMU lost 104 catches, about 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns between the departures of Mark Chapman and Corey Willis alone. Couple that with the fact that Poljan is less proven and perhaps less able as a passer than Morris was, and it remains to be seen whether the Chips' outside guys are going to be good enough to keep defenses honest.
Defensive Scheme & Strategy
CMU runs a base 4-3 defense with a fairly traditional look across the board. Every defensive coordinator would lean heavily on an organic pass rush if that's possible, and perhaps that was skewed last year because defensive lineman Joe Ostman was so dominant, leading the FBS in sacks (14).
Defensive Personnel Strengths
The Chips return a good number of starters and starts at most positions, especially at linebacker where Alex Briones, Malik Fountain and Michael Oliver return as first teamers. Replacing Ostman's havoc will be a difficult task but Briones is a capable pass rusher as a weakside linebacker. This will be Fountain's fourth year as a starter and he's been a quality player at the middle linebacker spot.
While Joe Ostman's departure looms large (more on that momentarily), Bonamego is bullish on the Chips' defensive line because of the return of players like Mitch Stanitzek and Nate Brisson-Fast. Aside from junior nose tackle D'Andre Dill (6'1, 310) this isn't a very big group across the front, but they are quick and tough. The returning defensive linemen were disruptive and, even without Ostman, they could be one of the better units in the MAC.
CMU's defensive line adds graduate transfers Marcus Griffin and Sean Adesanya from Arizona and Illinois, respectively, so they have better than average depth up front for a Group of Five program.
While CMU's secondary will largely be new, cornerback Sean Bunting does return a year after picking off five passes and he's a good piece to build around. Defensive coordinator Greg Colby has said that Bunting is a supremely confident player, but spoke of a need to avoid overconfidence which can sometimes lead to gambling and bad decisions. Oregon State transfer Xavier Crawford should start opposite Bunting at corner and he's an X-Factor that could potentially lessen the blow of those departures from last year.
Defensive Personnel Deficiencies
Simply put it is very unlikely that CMU is prepared to effectively replace Ostman, who had 69 tackles, 14 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss a year ago, in only 11 games. He was a one-man wrecking crew and camped out on the backfield of opponents for much of the year. While CMU returns a good deal of experience defensively, nobody comes anywhere near the level of disruptiveness and motor that Ostman produced and sustained in 2017. He had nearly half of CMU's 34-sack total, and by the end of the season the best thing the Chippewas had going for them, arguably as a whole team, was its ability to pressure the passer. To compensate, expect CMU to get creative in generating a pass rush and pressures, but that comes with pitfalls.
CMU's quick but undersized defensive line has been better at getting after the quarterback than stuffing the run and that could be true again.
The one area defensively where CMU could be in for the most regression, beyond the pass rush, is pass defense. That was the best part of the Chippewas' game last season but the team has to replace three of four starters in the secondary and could be putting redshirt freshmen Brandon Brown and Devonni Reed on the field a lot.
Colby himself has expressed optimism regarding the secondary long-term, but has hinted to a learning curve in the beginning.
Special Teams Overview
CMU returns both starting specialists in punter Jack Sheldon and kicker Michael Armstrong.
Sheldon got plenty of work last year (75 punts) and he had a strong 43.4 yard average but a much lower net, which means the Chips' coverage needs to improve. His punts only led to seven fair catches (compare to Matt Panton's 23 for UK).
While Armstrong was a respectable 7/11 on the field goals he does not have much of a leg. There were no attempts beyond 50 yards and he was 0/2 from 40 yards and out last year.
Kick return man Jerrod Davis is someone Kentucky will be prepared for. He averaged 26.6 yards per return and brought one kick to the house last year.
