NFL and the QB Second Contract

[Perrin75]

Since NFL free agency has kicked off, I thought I would ask this question. If you were an NFL GM, would you give a QB a second contract? We are starting to see even the most average QB like Daniel Jones sign a second contract that represents a very large portion of the salary cap. We are also seeing QBs demand more and more guaranteed money, which means that money is locked regardless of how the player performs. The third element to this is that we are seeing most QBs incorporate a running element to their game, which only increases the chances that they will be injured. Especially as they age.

Teams like the Ravens, the Bengals, the Chargers and the Eagles are all going to have huge decisions to make. Those QBs are going to demand enormous contracts and it is going to leave very little room to sign elite players at other positions.

For me, I am now wondering if the better strategy would be to basically use a day 1 or 2 pick on QB every season. I would also design an offense that is more along the lines of what we are seeing out of the Ravens and the Eagles. QBs are incredibly valuable, so even if I don't have the need to replace a starter. I have a constant stream of trade pieces that I can use to improve my team. And I can spend more of my salary cap on positions that have the potential for a much bigger bang for the buck.

The final piece to this is just looking at how many modern QBs have won a title outside of their first 7 years in the league. Tom Brady is the outlier. There aren't a lot outside the of the GOAT. A QB in the first round can be locked for five years and franchised for two. That might give me enough window with that player before I need to move on.

So, curious as to others thoughts. If you woke up tomorrow in charge of a team like the Bengals or the Ravens, are you committing your future to your superstar QB or are you looking for alternatives?

 

[bigblueinsanity]

Initially I thought the giants were crazy for Jones'crazy contract but they maybe had no other options.

Lamar is crazy if he leaves. His skill set requires a very specific offensive fit both in staff and mentality. Other than maybe san fran or philly, I don't think he's going to find it outside Baltimore

 

[K_TIME]

This is a tremendous question....

- Mahomes is great....but his $50M is costing them left tackle and some defensive players. Is Andy Reid and Mahomes good enough to overcome it all going forward. They have won 2 rings and got to a third super bowl already. But now his contract is going to start to take on more and more of the cap.
- Rogers for all his greatness....1 Super bowl early in his years and then once his huge contracts started to eat up cap....couldn't pay defense to stop the run....then when they got a D....could only afford Davonte Adams at WR, etc..

The Brady plan was always the best path but it requires a great QB that is willing to take less money than he could have gotten to fill in around him with pieces to win. But Dak, Watson, now Lamar is demanding a pay day....and they aren't going to win around those guys with what's left of those rosters. We'll see what Burrow is going to demand next year.....

 

[Perrin75]

Initially I thought the giants were crazy for Jones'crazy contract but they maybe had no other options.

Lamar is crazy if he leaves. His skill set requires a very specific offensive fit both in staff and mentality. Other than maybe san fran or philly, I don't think he's going to find it outside Baltimore

My argument is this: if Daniel Joens is your only option, then it is time to start over. I'm going to throw some basic cash at Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett or some other stop gap to get me through the season and then I am going to hit the draft. This year the Giants aren't in position to take a first round QB, so I am going to pick-up Hendon Hooker, Tanner McKee or one of the other second tier QBs and hope I get the next Russell WIlson or Dak Prescott. Then, I am going to get the best QB coach I can find. Finally, I am going to re-tool my offense to create a style that can maximize the talents of a tier 2 QB. I am also going to hire these best QB scout(s) out there and I am going to focus on finding my QB of the future.

Daniel Joens played in 16 games last season and scored 15 touchdowns. He has been a starter for 4 years and those are his numbers. There is no way he is going to elevate a team to the Super Bowl, especially if the team has to pay him $40 Million a year.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

I think you want to keep a QB if he is successful and familiar with your system, so spend the cap money. I think you would be better off by drafting position players to fill the spots of players approaching their 2nd contract. I think you can get more production from a 1st year player at every position than you can at QB.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

My argument is this: if Daniel Joens is your only option, then it is time to start over. I'm going to throw some basic cash at Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett or some other stop gap to get me through the season and then I am going to hit the draft. This year the Giants aren't in position to take a first round QB, so I am going to pick-up Hendon Hooker, Tanner McKee or one of the other second tier QBs and hope I get the next Russell WIlson or Dak Prescott. Then, I am going to get the best QB coach I can find. Finally, I am going to re-tool my offense to create a style that can maximize the talents of a tier 2 QB. I am also going to hire these best QB scout(s) out there and I am going to focus on finding my QB of the future.

Daniel Joens played in 16 games last season and scored 15 touchdowns. He has been a starter for 4 years and those are his numbers. There is no way he is going to elevate a team to the Super Bowl, especially if the team has to pay him $40 Million a year.

I agree he sucks. However I don't see any other option out there. Of the guys you mentioned, maybe bisset. Hooker played in maybe the most basic offense in cfb (even though it was hard to stop) so he won't be ready. If you're going UT guys, the titans backup qb looked pretty good towards the end of last year.

Jones did just enough in a contract year in this dry market to get that deal.

 

[StubbornPenny]

This is a tremendous question....

- Mahomes is great....but his $50M is costing them left tackle and some defensive players. Is Andy Reid and Mahomes good enough to overcome it all going forward. They have won 2 rings and got to a third super bowl already. But now his contract is going to start to take on more and more of the cap.

While your basic concept is correct, Mahomes is a bad example. His contract actually scales up and down in different years, which in theory will give the Chiefs windows to retain other up and coming players for a few years in designated windows. Coupled with the fact that it’s very long term and the cap tends to go up, it’s actually an incredibly team friendly deal, considering everything.

But I agree. The best window to win is a QB on his first contract and surround him with talent.

 

[gamecockcat]

Really good question.

If you are convinced you have a franchise QB, you almost have to keep him. However, you can't pour all of your money into the QB position and rely on rookies to block and play defense. Somehow, you have to convince your star QB that $20M/yr is more than enough to live on for the remainder of his life along with several generations. Could you structure it such that your QB gets $20M guaranteed for 12 years? I'm using $20M as an example. I don't know what the actual number would be. There is a point of diminishing return, obviously. If Mahomes doesn't have Kelce, a good OL, a reasonably good defense, etc., the Chiefs become the Packers - a team that won't ever be dreadful but just won't have the depth of talent to get back to a SB.

For all the analytics guys, I think I read where the greatest opportunity to get to a SB is when the QB is on his rookie deal. Also, no 1 player accounts for more than 15 or 16% of the cap. Lot of 'pretty good' QBs getting paid big bucks but will not be able to get their team to the conf finals or SB because their contract is just too much of an albatross. Cousins, R. Wilson, others throughout the past several years. Giving Daniel Jones big bucks is a complete waste of money. I can't see anything in him that suggests he'll ever be better than average but they're paying 'above average' money. They'd be better off investing in other positions and have a game manager at half the price than forking over all those millions for him. Flacco, Nick Foles and Dilfer prove that a team doesn't have to have a HOF at QB to win the SB if you've got enough good players around him. Get a solid QB with high IQ, put him in a system that doesn't expect HOF throws/numbers and have a lot of talent around him and you can win.