Doesn't Sagarin do something similar with it's "predictor" thing? As in, the predictor thinks your are ___ points ahead of your opponent, and if you trounce that prediction the computer propels you much further ahead than if you had simply met it?
New BPI: #1 Purdue, #3 UL, #9 Duke, #16 Vandy, #17 UK
- Thread starter Smashcat
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Doesn't Sagarin do something similar with it's "predictor" thing? As in, the predictor thinks your are ___ points ahead of your opponent, and if you trounce that prediction the computer propels you much further ahead than if you had simply met it?
I think so.
I have a subscription to Kenpom......the thing I like about that is he breaks it up between offense and defense. So I usually go on before games and look.....
So.......UK-Ohio predicted score is 74-65 in 67 possessions. IOW........his system expects us to score 1.10 points per possession and give up .97.
If we score more than 1.10.......depending on what the other teams do around us.......than our offensive efficiency goes up.
Same thing with Sagarin. Not sure what the difference is between the predictor, golden mean, recent and the overall rating but I believe you take the overall ratings and subtract the two scores, factor in home court (3 points I think) and you have your prediction. If you do better than that, you move up.
That's quite a big if tho considering UL is 27th in forcing turnovers and we are merely average at holding onto the ball.
There's other things UL does well tho.
They have shot the ball well (21st in effective FG%)
They have rebounded the ball well. They rebound 47% of their missed shots. That's 1st in the land.
Above average at not turning the ball over.
On Defense
4th in the NCAA in effective FG% against (39.5%)
Good on the defensive boards (36th)
People will say ok that's against poor competition but what I've found by looking at several teams for several years, there's not a huge difference is you compare non conference numbers to conference numbers. Teams that do things well in the non conference even against a crappy team still do the same things well against good teams.
looking at turnovers as a whole is a bad way to judge (or anything as a whole for that matter). 13 turnovers in an 80 possession game much different than 13 in a 60 possession game.
We turn it over on on 18.3% of our possessions. That's 158th. The average this season is 18.7%
This number will go down tho as the season progresses. It almost always does with Cal's teams. I'm sure the inexperience plays a part in the first few games.
UL would be terrible right now if there 2 senior transfers Lee and Lewis didn't transfer in and play at UL this year. Those 2 players and Snider is what helped this UL team start 7-1 and the one loss to MSU. The only thing is when you look at their Schedule it is so weak compared to UK, Duke, and even UCLA. They play 2 strong OOC opponents this year and that is UK and MSU and that is it in their 13 game OOC schedule. That is weak if you look at the teams they have beaten and there last 4 are UK and 3 weak teams. They will finish either 11-2 or 12-1 in OOC depending on our game and 11 out of 13 teams were weak.
has to be flawed,beating cupcakes by 30 points does not equate to beating duke by 11
Ha! Got ya. We are .4% above average.
lol yep not too bad.
Also defenses tend to have more control over the turnover stat compared to offenses which always concerns me playing UL.
That being said, we always seem to do pretty well against them
But they did transfer in.
I mean that's like saying UK would be worse if they didn't recruit Briscoe and Murray lol
Just because someone plays a weak schedule doesn't mean they can't be a good team
Right but your looking at one game.
I mean losing to UCLA away by 10 also does not equate to UL losing to Michigan St away by 4.
What UK did vs teams as a whole vs what UL has done is comparable even accounting for SOS
I expect a close game. We have more talent and have home court so I expect a victory but I expect it to be close. I think most of our recent games with them have been close.
I would be shocked if we won by double digits. And you'd be right........either that means UL isn't as good as the rankings say or that UK is getting better than their ranking would indicate
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