New BPI: #1 Purdue, #3 UL, #9 Duke, #16 Vandy, #17 UK
- Thread starter Smashcat
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Already beat Duke so we know where UK stands in comparison to #9 and after 12/26 there will be no doubt about where we stand against the #3 dirty birds and their anemic OOC schedule. ESPN has some people that know sports but they have far more idiots that like the sound of their own voice or value their own opinion in order to pontificate on matters they really have no great expertise in.
Amazes me that you can play literally nobody but one team, who beat you, and you are #3. That should tell you that you need to tweak your system.
Kansas at 24, with lone loss to #1 ranked Michigan State. Maryland -- one loss a true road game to UNC -- 26.
Three-loss Iowa 11. Three-loss Vanderbilt 16.
I'll leave my prejudice for Kentucky out of it, and call the BPI a laughable joke at this stage of the season at least.
Three-loss Iowa 11. Three-loss Vanderbilt 16.
I'll leave my prejudice for Kentucky out of it, and call the BPI a laughable joke at this stage of the season at least.
Has Jeff Goodman reproduced? He's making a very strong case for legislated and enforceable eugenics.
Too early for computer rankings...of which everyone who knows anything about college basketball is well aware.
Thank goodness things like RPI and BPI are created to give us information at tournament selection time and not before Feb.
Haha I clicked that expecting to see a UK fan cussing Goodman out or something. Instead he asks a fair point and Goodman goes into his schtick of acting like UK fans are spoiled. I mean the guy didn't even mention UK.
From the SEC, the BPI has the following teams:
#15 South Carolina (8-0): Best win #45 Oral Roberts
#16 Vanderbilt (6-3): Best win #62 Arizona St
#17 Kentucky (9-1): Best win #9 Duke.
#21 Florida (6-3): losses to #1 Purdue, #4 Michigan St, & #12 Miami. SOS- #8, Best win #65 Richmond, #99 St Joes (Another chance for a top win vs #34 FSU).
#30 Texas A&M (8-2): Best wins: #40 Gonzaga, #49 Texas
#52 Tennessee (4-4)
#61 Georgia (4-3)
#70 Arkansas (5-4)
#92 Auburn (4-2) <--- Football is over, somebody wake them up and tell 'em to keep up with the other sec teams playing ball!
#107 Alabama (6-2)
#124 Missouri (5-4)
#126 Ole Miss (7-2)
#128 Miss St (4-4)
#137 LSU (4-4) <---------- What a disappointment! NIT looks like a goal for them!
From a Florida fans perspective, the state of Florida is tougher this year with three highly rated teams (#12 Miami, #21 Florida, #34 Florida St). With Donovan's departure, there seems to be a power vacuum in the state and recruiting has gotten tougher for the Gators while the other two in-state ACC schools have been cleaning it up. Florida is still trying to find their offensive identity under White and trying to secure some more key nonconference wins (i.e, #101 Oklahoma St, #34 FSU, #13 West Virginia) for their resume.
As for the SEC, there are five quality teams (USCe, VU, UK, UF, TAMU) in the that should make the NCAAs. A couple of bubble teams (Tennessee, Georgia) and three more close to the bubble (Arkansas, Auburn, Alabama).
What are your thoughts?
#15 South Carolina (8-0): Best win #45 Oral Roberts
#16 Vanderbilt (6-3): Best win #62 Arizona St
#17 Kentucky (9-1): Best win #9 Duke.
#21 Florida (6-3): losses to #1 Purdue, #4 Michigan St, & #12 Miami. SOS- #8, Best win #65 Richmond, #99 St Joes (Another chance for a top win vs #34 FSU).
#30 Texas A&M (8-2): Best wins: #40 Gonzaga, #49 Texas
#52 Tennessee (4-4)
#61 Georgia (4-3)
#70 Arkansas (5-4)
#92 Auburn (4-2) <--- Football is over, somebody wake them up and tell 'em to keep up with the other sec teams playing ball!
#107 Alabama (6-2)
#124 Missouri (5-4)
#126 Ole Miss (7-2)
#128 Miss St (4-4)
#137 LSU (4-4) <---------- What a disappointment! NIT looks like a goal for them!
From a Florida fans perspective, the state of Florida is tougher this year with three highly rated teams (#12 Miami, #21 Florida, #34 Florida St). With Donovan's departure, there seems to be a power vacuum in the state and recruiting has gotten tougher for the Gators while the other two in-state ACC schools have been cleaning it up. Florida is still trying to find their offensive identity under White and trying to secure some more key nonconference wins (i.e, #101 Oklahoma St, #34 FSU, #13 West Virginia) for their resume.
As for the SEC, there are five quality teams (USCe, VU, UK, UF, TAMU) in the that should make the NCAAs. A couple of bubble teams (Tennessee, Georgia) and three more close to the bubble (Arkansas, Auburn, Alabama).
What are your thoughts?
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![[laughing]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/laugh.r191677.gif "Laughing [laughing]")
And the one team that beat them is behind them in the ranking.
Makes you want to know who the "experts" are that crunch the data to make these selections.
Richmond and St Joes. Purdue was a neutral site game and Miami/Michigan St were back to back road games.
Florida did not schedule too many bad rpi teams (i.e, >200, >300). Most of the opponents are top 100 or 100-200. The worst teams on UF's schedules are LSU (212), Miss St (210), Jacksonville (340), and NC A&T (259). The rest are under 200 rpi.
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_355_Men.html
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_357_Men.html
My bad. According to rpi, VU's best wins were #41 Detroit and #53 Wake Forrest. The BPi rankings are a little confusing to follow.
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_363_Men.html
I'll give you another example of bad scheduling. Ole Miss (7-2) has a good record but a poor rpi/bpi whatever. According to rpi for Ole Miss (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_359_Men.html ), the rebels have scheduled five teams with an rpi > 245 and one more who is > 300. As for quality opponents in the nonconference schedule, Ole Miss is only playing two teams under rpi 100 and one more team under rpi 150. That is very poor scheduling and not that challenging. Ole Miss must just be trying to qualify for the NIT, I guess.
[QUOTE="MdWIldcat55, post: 3012308, member: 7168"]Richmond and St. Joe's in no way compare to wins over Duke and Arizona State. Throw in three losses compared to one, and only an idiot or a computer could rank Florida near the same rank as Kentucky.
Everyone know the flaw of the RPI in the early weeks of the season: If you schedule South Florida to give a former assistant a boost you are penalized by its 250 RPI, compared with another school scheduling a team with a 100 RPI -- even though both teams are cupcakes for a Top 20 team.[/QUOTE]
They (#56, 60) are not too far off your Arizona St.(#43) win and those teams have a chance to win their conferences. Florida did not play as many total bad teams as Kentucky so there is the slight penalty there for the cats. However, UF just played their toughest opponents to date and will get an easier stretch again (i.e, #340 JU). So, the Gators will probably take a dip in the rpi. It will all even out as the season goes along.
It just sucks that Florida's offense (#111) is really holding them back in picking up a high quality win during the nonconference slate. According to Kenpom, Florida's defense (#3) has been stellar. Florida lost a close road game to Michigan St (52-58) - but moral victories are useless if you are trying to be big time program.
http://kenpom.com/
Everyone know the flaw of the RPI in the early weeks of the season: If you schedule South Florida to give a former assistant a boost you are penalized by its 250 RPI, compared with another school scheduling a team with a 100 RPI -- even though both teams are cupcakes for a Top 20 team.[/QUOTE]
They (#56, 60) are not too far off your Arizona St.(#43) win and those teams have a chance to win their conferences. Florida did not play as many total bad teams as Kentucky so there is the slight penalty there for the cats. However, UF just played their toughest opponents to date and will get an easier stretch again (i.e, #340 JU). So, the Gators will probably take a dip in the rpi. It will all even out as the season goes along.
It just sucks that Florida's offense (#111) is really holding them back in picking up a high quality win during the nonconference slate. According to Kenpom, Florida's defense (#3) has been stellar. Florida lost a close road game to Michigan St (52-58) - but moral victories are useless if you are trying to be big time program.
http://kenpom.com/
Small sample size. Means nothing. We'll see how good the #3 Cardinals are when they come to Rupp in 11 days.
It looks like the BPI puts a lot of weight on pounding bad teams. The explanation for it says they take blowouts into account but don't "overweight them" (a 30 point win is "20% better" than a 20 point win). But it looks like it clearly has an effect. We have a better SOS than 10 of the 16 teams in front of us (ours is 66). The top 3 teams' SOS is 141 to 170, and they've beaten the crap out of those bad teams.
Not only is it poor scheduling but teams really don't need to be doing this.
There's no reason to play teams ranked in the 300s.. You want to have a nice RPI..........schedule teams in the 100s and maybe a few in the 200s.
Your still not going to lose these games 99% of the time and they will help your RPI far more than the 300s.
UK in the past have always had that issue. They would have tough teams (ie KU, Duke, MIchigan St, UNC, UL etc etc) but the backend was always awful.
This season it's changed. No 300 teams. Three 200 teams (of which South Florida and Wright St were in the 100s at the start of the season). The rest were in the 100s or better
That's actually how a good system should account for it.
Margin of Victory does matter.........but of course there's diminishing returns.
You absolutely have to factor it in tho. We know this from other sports. Baseball.........in the beginning of the year (up till about 120 games played by each team) run differential is a better predictor of future record than the actual record. As time passes and you play more games, the actual record takes over. But run differential is important to look at.
So I don't blame these systems for using MOV. All of them should. It just needs to be weighed properly and maybe that's where we are seeing flaws.
They (#56, 60) are not too far off your Arizona St.(#43) win and those teams have a chance to win their conferences. Florida did not play as many total bad teams as Kentucky so there is the slight penalty there for the cats. However, UF just played their toughest opponents to date and will get an easier stretch again (i.e, #340 JU). So, the Gators will probably take a dip in the rpi. It will all even out as the season goes along.
It just sucks that Florida's offense (#111) is really holding them back in picking up a high quality win during the nonconference slate. According to Kenpom, Florida's defense (#3) has been stellar. Florida lost a close road game to Michigan St (52-58) - but moral victories are useless if you are trying to be big time program.
http://kenpom.com/[/QUOTE]
The interesting thing about that is when Donovan was there, it was the defense that wasn't efficient and the offense was really good (see 08 to 12). Then it 2015 it really flipped with the offense being 151st and defense 11th.
I haven't seen UF play much but you might be seeing the fact that Kenpom still has data from the previous year in the system. So because they had a bad offense last season, your still seeing some of that in this year's numbers. Then again when I look at the raw KP data, UF ranks 146th so maybe the offense is still weak.
Of course not.
Then again, they really haven't played anyone other than Michigan St.
But I think everyone can agree Michigan St is a good team.........top 5 at worst.
UL lost......by 4 points. On the road no less.
North Florida (118th) won by 28
Saint Louis (172nd) won by 20
Grand Canyon (193rd) won by 48
Eastern Michigan (150th) won by 33
Those are their best wins.
Those games tho are very comparable to UK's
NJIT (144th) won by 30
Boston University (140th) won by 20
Illinois St. (177nd) won by 12
People want to know why the computers are rating the two teams close together it's they are having similar results against similar ranked teams. That's all.
UL lost that game 71-67
Most would say Michigan St are UK are in the same tier this season.......MSU might be even better right now.
The computer predicted score for UK-UL? 71-67 lol.
Take away the three points for home court and UK would probably be favored by just 1-2 points on a neutral court.
The weak schedule is always used as an excuse.....but X team did it vs a weak schedule..........it doesn't mean that X team isn't good or even very good.
All of this and we don't really know yet.......it's still early in the season. But at least the computers are using some kind of logic. Sometimes with the human polls I can't figure out where they are coming up with things.
Most would say Michigan St are UK are in the same tier this season.......MSU might be even better right now.
The computer predicted score for UK-UL? 71-67 lol.
Take away the three points for home court and UK would probably be favored by just 1-2 points on a neutral court.
The weak schedule is always used as an excuse.....but X team did it vs a weak schedule..........it doesn't mean that X team isn't good or even very good.
All of this and we don't really know yet.......it's still early in the season. But at least the computers are using some kind of logic. Sometimes with the human polls I can't figure out where they are coming up with things.
Again, Louisville caught Michigan State playing their 5th game in 8 days. Also after Louisville raced to a 13 point lead they were outscored by 20 until the final min of the game.
Let's chill a tad on that performance.
Add in the fact that a VERY average Florida team had the lead in East Lansing with under 4 to play.
Let's chill a tad on that performance.
Add in the fact that a VERY average Florida team had the lead in East Lansing with under 4 to play.
A 4 point road loss to #1 is a 4 points road loss to #1
The fact that they outscored them at the end by that much to me means they weren't really tired even playing 5th game in 8 days.
And that's the point.......maybe UF isn't average.
KP 24th
Sargarin 21st
BPI 21st
The fact that they outscored them at the end by that much to me means they weren't really tired even playing 5th game in 8 days.
And that's the point.......maybe UF isn't average.
KP 24th
Sargarin 21st
BPI 21st
I don't care what the computer BS says, Florida is as mediocre as it gets. And Louisville outside of its two guards still struggles to find points as it has been the last several years for the Cards.
I agree that it should be used to some extent, and I get your MLB comparison. However, run differential among 30 professional baseball teams is different than MOV with 300+ DI schools of various strengths, which is where it gets dicey with the NCAAB computer rankings.
A good system would almost need to have a sliding MOV scale, with MOV against other highly rated teams being weighted more than MOV against lower rated teams. I'm no mathematician, so that's really as far as I can go with the formulaic talk.
Louisville's ball-hawking, pressing style eats up lesser talented teams with non-elite ball handlers. Often why scores are so inflated. Not so much when a team's talent level is more comparable.
Maybe with sheep, can't imagine a woman would want to hear that voice during conception or that face.
Agreed and I think good systems already do this.
I could be totally wrong but with Kenpom.........so there's predicted scores before each game. Say UK plays a team ranked 175th. So average team. Let's say the predicted score has them winning by 20.
Now let's say there's another team........ranked 50th and they are predicted to win by 10.
UK ends up winning both games by 20.
The first game.......UK did what was expected........their ratings would more or less stay the same.
The second game UK did better than expected........by 10 points. Which means they did better than expected either on offense or defense (or perhaps both). As a result, their adjusted offensive or defensive efficiency would rise making their overall rating rise.
So I think good systems have this factored in already. A 30 point win over the 300th ranked team = not gonna make u rise. A 30 point win vs the 50th ranked team? Your jumping up.
If UK turns it over under 12 times we win by 12-15.
Louisville has no half court scoring other than their two guards.
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