NET Update

[CatEye2010]

We dropped from 10 to 12, Bama moved up 1, 8 to 7.
Our Q line looks like this:

6-4 1-0 1-0 6-0. So one of our Q3 wins moved to a Q2.

Big move by Michigan from 15 to 11 to jump us, on the strength of a home win over Washington by 16 and a road loss to Minnesota by 3 in OT. Very puzzling.🤨

 

[Digger-Cat]

We dropped from 10 to 12, Bama moved up 1, 8 to 7.
Our Q line looks like this:

6-4 1-0 1-0 6-0. So one of our Q3 wins moved to a Q2.

Big move by Michigan from 15 to 11 to jump us, on the strength of a home win over Washington by 16 and a road loss to Minnesota by 3 in OT. Very puzzling.🤨

The Michigan and Gonzaga rankings make zero sense to me. It makes me not trust the metrics.

Throw Houston in there too. No quad 1 wins and damn near lost to UCF yesterday.

 

[FtWorthCat]

Barring a total collapse, meaning we finish somewhere between 10-8 and 12-6 in the SEC, we will be a 2 or 3 seed. I just hope that we are put in a region where the teams higher than us are not SEC teams. I would much rather be in a region with Iowa State or Duke than Auburn or Alabama.

 

[TucsonCat]

There's no great mystery here.
10, 11, 12, and 13 all lost yesterday and they filled the vacuum.

I don't necessarily care.
The committee doesn't care what you're net is.
They look at what your opponents' is.

 

[HenryMuto]

The sites I value still have Kentucky as a 2 seed. I thought maybe we would drop to a 3 seed but since many of the 1/2/3 seeds fell we stayed put. Need to beat Vandy or we will drop to a 3 seed for sure.

 

[TheDude73]

The sites I value still have Kentucky as a 2 seed. I thought maybe we would drop to a 3 seed but since many of the 1/2/3 seeds fell we stayed put. Need to beat Vandy or we will drop to a 3 seed for sure.

3 seed or better will be way beyond my wildest expectations for this year. That Pope may well slap together a 2-5 seed in his very first year at UK with an entirely new team has got to be fodder for coach of the year. Not just SEC, but national.

 

[Son_Of_Saul]

20 to 23 wins this year, folks.
9-9 in the SEC.
4 seed when it's all said and done.

A good season for year #1 on the rebuild.

 

[TucsonCat]

We dropped from 10 to 12, Bama moved up 1, 8 to 7.
Our Q line looks like this:

6-4 1-0 1-0 6-0. So one of our Q3 wins moved to a Q2.

Big move by Michigan from 15 to 11 to jump us, on the strength of a home win over Washington by 16 and a road loss to Minnesota by 3 in OT. Very puzzling.🤨

Michigan won on Sunday.
They dropped 1 spot for their trouble.
Kentucky jumped them.
Won by 4 in overtime.
Scoring margin matters.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Michigan won on Sunday.
They dropped 1 spot for their trouble.
Kentucky jumped them.
Won by 4 in overtime.
Scoring margin matters.

Yep. Which explains Houston who is just throttling teams (think last game was the only game they not won by double digits all season long).

 

[The_Answer1313]

The NET can be explained like this.

Human polls mostly set the line at games at zero. You win, you move up. You lose, you move down.

NET and Efficiency metrics it's all about what you were expected to do given your rank and your opponent's rank. So say you were supposed to beat a team by 10 based on the skill level of each team and you only win by say 5. You might move down. Because that might mean maybe you were overrated, your opponent was underrated or a bit of both. It's a constant moving scale.


Human polls and seeding is still largely based on resume. Despite plastering the NET numbers all over the Team Sheets the committee uses to make these decisions. It's very much who did you beat which a lot of people like.

Teams with the best resume and teams that are simply the best correlate well but it's not exact. You could be a very good team with a poor resume especially if you play in a conference where resume building win opportunities are lacking. I think this is the whole purpose of even having the NET. To put everything on a more level playing field. To be able to compare the teams that say played 15 Q1 games vs the team that played 3 Q1 games.

 

[HenryMuto]

3 seed or better will be way beyond my wildest expectations for this year. That Pope may well slap together a 2-5 seed in his very first year at UK with an entirely new team has got to be fodder for coach of the year. Not just SEC, but national.

A 3 seed would be a miracle with that schedule left. I took a closer look at it for the first time this year and it was not pretty.

So many brutal road games I was hoping for 4-5 on the road SEC to start the year not sure that can happen.

I was hoping for 8-1 at home but I didn't realize they had to play every top team Bama, Florida, Auburn and Tenn all at home.

2 games vs both Bama and Tenn.

This thing could go sideways and fast and you are then looking at a 6 or 7 seed.

 

[Montana81]

The Ohio State and Colgate games are killing us. We underperformed badly in both. The georgia game to a lesser degree.

We were favored by 7-10 against Ohio State and lost by 20. Favored by like 35 against Colgate and only won by 11. Favored by what…4-5 against Georgia and lost by 12-13?

On the the flip side I think we overperformed slightly at Mississippi State and at home against A&M. We need to absolutely crush someone if we want to see those computer numbers go up. Or at least start consistently beating the spread again.

That’s why Gonzaga is always so high. When they lose it’s not by much and then they destroy the spread against the weak competition. And they absolutely decimated a baylor team that’s overrated as well.

I keep mentioning the vegas spread because it’s always close to what the computer polls have. So they’re clearly using a similar formula and probably making last minute tweaks for injuries and other things (cough cough officiating crews cough cough).

 

[bbncal02]

The Ohio State and Colgate games are killing us. We underperformed badly in both. The georgia game to a lesser degree.

We were favored by 7-10 against Ohio State and lost by 20. Favored by like 35 against Colgate and only won by 11. Favored by what…4-5 against Georgia and lost by 12-13?

On the the flip side I think we overperformed slightly at Mississippi State and at home against A&M. We need to absolutely crush someone if we want to see those computer numbers go up. Or at least start consistently beating the spread again.

That’s why Gonzaga is always so high. When they lose it’s not by much and then they destroy the spread against the weak competition. And they absolutely decimated a baylor team that’s overrated as well.

I keep mentioning the vegas spread because it’s always close to what the computer polls have. So they’re clearly using a similar formula and probably making last minute tweaks for injuries and other things (cough cough officiating crews cough cough).

We're not going to crush anyone in this conference. Nobody really is outside of the occasional one-off (i.e. UF over EweTee)

Rankings just mean jack diddly this year.

 

[The_Answer1313]

The Ohio State and Colgate games are killing us. We underperformed badly in both. The georgia game to a lesser degree.

We were favored by 7-10 against Ohio State and lost by 20. Favored by like 35 against Colgate and only won by 11. Favored by what…4-5 against Georgia and lost by 12-13?

On the the flip side I think we overperformed slightly at Mississippi State and at home against A&M. We need to absolutely crush someone if we want to see those computer numbers go up. Or at least start consistently beating the spread again.

That’s why Gonzaga is always so high. When they lose it’s not by much and then they destroy the spread against the weak competition. And they absolutely decimated a baylor team that’s overrated as well.

I keep mentioning the vegas spread because it’s always close to what the computer polls have. So they’re clearly using a similar formula and probably making last minute tweaks for injuries and other things (cough cough officiating crews cough cough).

Yep also why Houston is so highly ranked.

 

[The_Answer1313]

We're not going to crush anyone in this conference. Nobody really is outside of the occasional one-off (i.e. UF over EweTee)

Rankings just mean jack diddly this year.

Good news is we probably don't have to.

Just consistently winning in this conference should be good enough to make our metrics look better.

Right now tho through 5 SEC games we are 3-2. We have scored around 1.20 ppp. We have given up around 1.20 ppp. Everything is pointing to a .500 team which obviously won't move the needle.

 

[bbncal02]

Good news is we probably don't have to.

Just consistently winning in this conference should be good enough to make our metrics look better.

Right now tho through 5 SEC games we are 3-2. We have scored around 1.20 ppp. We have given up around 1.20 ppp. Everything is pointing to a .500 team which obviously won't move the needle.

That's what's worrying me. Our defense just sucks ass for a second year in a row. I know that's not Pope's fault but man I thought we'd be just a smidge better on the defensive end.

Just beat Arky, make the SEC Semifinals or better, and make the Rd. of 32. I think that's all we can as for this season.

 

[The_Answer1313]

That's what's worrying me. Our defense just sucks ass for a second year in a row. I know that's not Pope's fault but man I thought we'd be just a smidge better on the defensive end.

Just beat Arky, make the SEC Semifinals or better, and make the Rd. of 32. I think that's all we can as for this season.

Then again, I guess those numbers should improve somewhat. We do have games vs Vanderbilt twice, Arkansas, Texas, South Carolina, Oklahoma and LSU.

So I guess we've had quite a tough conference schedule already. 2 of the 5 in the top 10. 4 of the 5 in the top 25. And UGA is sitting at 35 currently.

There should be some upcoming games we could probably do some damage in.

 

[Montana81]

That's what's worrying me. Our defense just sucks ass for a second year in a row. I know that's not Pope's fault but man I thought we'd be just a smidge better on the defensive end.

Just beat Arky, make the SEC Semifinals or better, and make the Rd. of 32. I think that's all we can as for this season.

I’m disappointed but not suprised at our defense. I have much more faith that Pope will adapt than the last guy however. But it’s probably gonna take longer than this season.

 

[Montana81]

Then again, I guess those numbers should improve somewhat. We do have games vs Vanderbilt twice, Arkansas, Texas, South Carolina, Oklahoma and LSU.

So I guess we've had quite a tough conference schedule already. 2 of the 5 in the top 10. 4 of the 5 in the top 25. And UGA is sitting at 35 currently.

There should be some upcoming games we could probably do some damage in.

We might be double digit dogs at home against Auburn. So just winning that would likely cause some movement. But I think that games still a ways away. The Duke win is helping us quite a bit now too. They’d be favored by double digits if we played that game today. And we won by 5.

 

[NociHTTP]

I think the eye-test tells us how good this team is. REALLY GOOD. Either team could say that they played bad defense this past Saturday, but both teams are really good.

 

[Digger-Cat]

That's what's worrying me. Our defense just sucks ass for a second year in a row. I know that's not Pope's fault but man I thought we'd be just a smidge better on the defensive end.

Just beat Arky, make the SEC Semifinals or better, and make the Rd. of 32. I think that's all we can as for this season.

Actually, our defense is more than a smidge better than last years. We're at 84th right now, I think we were ranked sub 100 last year.

 

[bbncal02]

I think the eye-test tells us how good this team is. REALLY GOOD. Either team could say that they played bad defense this past Saturday, but both teams are really good.

We've shown good spurts. Rebounding is still on my list of "Man this is gonna cost us a tourney game"

 

[bbncal02]

Actually, our defense is more than a smidge better than last years. We're at 84th right now, I think we were ranked sub 100 last year.

That's true. Unfortunately the conference is more than a smidge better. We have to keep improving.

 

[NociHTTP]

We've shown good spurts. Rebounding is still on my list of "Man this is gonna cost us a tourney game"

If Carr, Garrison and Williams would suddenly get excited about ripping down rebounds, we we would scare the daylights out teams. I'm hoping that happens.

 

[The_Answer1313]

The wild thing is we only let opponents rebound 27% of their misses. That's not too bad. 77th.

The more alarming things is:
1) We don't force turnovers on defense. Like at all. 331st in the nation
2) Our 2 point FG% defense stinks. 217th.

I feel like those things desperately need a turnaround. Having a good interior defense is paramount IMO.

 

[bbncal02]

The wild thing is we only let opponents rebound 27% of their misses. That's not too bad. 77th.

The more alarming things is:
1) We don't force turnovers on defense. Like at all. 331st in the nation
2) Our 2 point FG% defense stinks. 217th.

I feel like those things desperately need a turnaround. Having a good interior defense is paramount IMO.

We just don't have great size. Amari is big but has NO dawg in him.

Kerr brought the meanness and unfortunately he's probably never gonna play for us again.

 

[The_Answer1313]

I miss the days where we had Noel or Davis back there swatting everything LOL.

 

[Digger-Cat]

I miss the days where we had Noel or Davis back there swatting everything LOL.

That game at Ole Miss in 2013 where Noel had 3 and 4 fouls on him and he blocked everything. Ole Miss challenged him every time down the court and Noel just kept blocking them it was unreal.

 

[CatEye2010]

Kerr injured has hurt on D. He was pesky and disruptive; sure hope he can play again. Carr's back and Butler's shoulder are definitely affecting their play, especially on D. So I'll give CMP a pass this year because he's a much better defensive coach than is reflected on this team, injured like they are.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Kerr injured has hurt on D. He was pesky and disruptive; sure hope he can play again. Carr's back and Butler's shoulder are definitely affecting their play, especially on D. So I'll give CMP a pass this year because he's a much better defensive coach than is reflected on this team, injured like they are.

I don't know.

In 3 of the 5 years at BYU Pope had a top 25 offense.

But the defense was:
60th
30th
70th
52nd
60th.

But I do think at Kentucky with better players, he should be able to do better than those. But he definitely seems to be way more offensive oriented. Which is fine. He's got Mark Fox on the staff who had some pretty good defensive teams while at UGA.

 

[Digger-Cat]

I don't know.

In 3 of the 5 years at BYU Pope had a top 25 offense.

But the defense was:
60th
30th
70th
52nd
60th.

But I do think at Kentucky with better players, he should be able to do better than those. But he definitely seems to be way more offensive oriented. Which is fine. He's got Mark Fox on the staff who had some pretty good defensive teams while at UGA.

I'll hope for the best and I'm glad Pope is a great offensive mind, but coaching defense is a whole different ballgame and it very well could be the case that defensive coaching is a weakness Pope has.

 

[CatEye2010]

I don't know.

In 3 of the 5 years at BYU Pope had a top 25 offense.

But the defense was:
60th
30th
70th
52nd
60th.

But I do think at Kentucky with better players, he should be able to do better than those. But he definitely seems to be way more offensive oriented. Which is fine. He's got Mark Fox on the staff who had some pretty good defensive teams while at UGA.

And, he did that at BYU despite players having to sign an agreement not to drink, not to do drugs, and the biggie, not to have sex!

 

[chasingwildcat]

20 to 23 wins this year, folks.
9-9 in the SEC.
4 seed when it's all said and done.

A good season for year #1 on the rebuild.

Hopefully a s16 tournament run, do not expect more. Ceiling is somewhat low in this year.