So, we're going into our 3rd game of the season, and a lot of people are intrigued by this match-up. On one side, you have one of the most explosive, versatile offenses in the SEC. On the other, you have one of the most stout defenses in the SEC.
Let's look at some staff, and then compare some personnel!
Pass defense:
Kentucky:
454 yards
1 touchdown allowed
3 interceptions
115.35 QBR allowed
19 first downs allowed
3 passes for 25+ yards allowed
Florida:
482 yards
4 touchdowns allowed
2 interceptions
116.88 QBR allowed
20 first downs allowed
5 passes for 25+ yards allowed
Advantage in overall pass defense: Kentucky
The defenses do it 2 different ways. Kentucky does play more of a bend-but-don't-break defense, opposed to the lockdown defense that Florida plays. Both have advantages, both have downfalls.
If a lockdown defense is broken through (as Florida has been prone to thus far), you become significantly more susceptible to giving up touchdowns, and it makes it more difficult to make plays on the defensive side of the ball. That is why Kentucky seems to have the clear advantage against the pass. Florida has allowed 4 passing TD's this season. Kentucky has only allowed 1 TD thus-far.
Run defense:
Kentucky:
442 yards
5 touchdowns allowed
24 first downs allowed
5 runs for 20+ yards
Florida:
51 yards
1 touchdown allowed
5 first downs allowed
1 run for 20+ yards
Advantage in overall run defense: Florida
It's worth noting that teams have ran the ball against UK nearly twice as many times, but let's assume that you doubled all of Florida's numbers, they still would only allow 102 yards, 2 touchdowns, 10 first downs allowed, and 2 runs for 20+ yards. Still elite numbers, because Florida is an elite run defense. It goes without saying that UK will definitely be the best running team, and best offensive team that Florida has faced overall.
Kentucky needs to shore up its run defense in the 2nd half (if it plays like it does in the first half, for the full game, this would be close to a push, but alas). For what it's worth, I still think they would have elite numbers if they went against the first two teams that we played, rather than the first 2 teams that they played.
Passing offense:
Kentucky:
449 yards
3 touchdowns
2 interceptions
Florida:
589 yards
6 touchdowns
1 interceptions
Advantage in overall passing offense: Push
This one is tough. We've seen what outmatched DB's can look like. Patrick Towles went against the winner of the Sun-Belt conference, and despite playing a poor game overall, still came away with 3 touchdowns, and 200+ yards passing in the first half because our wide receivers beat them so badly on nearly every single play. Statistically, Florida is the team, but when you watch the teams that they played, the passing defenses they went against are hardly impressive. Now they're going to go against a pass defense which, overall, is better than their own. We'll touch on the personnel a bit later, which I think is what makes this a push between the two offenses.
Rushing offense:
Kentucky:
485 yards
5 touchdowns
6.02 yards per carry
Florida:
490 yards
5 touchdowns
4.94 yards per carry
Advantage in overall rushing offense: Kentucky
This one is also tough, but I'm just considering the competition. Kentucky's 2 opponents are easily more difficult than Florida's 2 opponents. Will also touch on the personnel here.
Advantage in Red Zone offense: Kentucky
Florida did not look great in the Red Zone against East Carolina. Scored 3 times out of 5 trips to the RZ, 2 rushing TD's, 1 FG. Kentucky, on the other hand, going back to last season, has scored on 20 of their past 20 trips to the RZ (7-for-7 this season, 4 rushing touchdowns, 1 passing touchdown, 2 field goals), and against South Carolina, who just the game before, held a North Carolina team that was one of the top 5 RZ touchdown scoring teams in the country (and they also returned 10 starters to that offense).
Advantage in Red Zone defense: Push
Getting points in the red zone could be as simple as having a good kicker (which we do, and they do not). Florida has some good numbers because they haven't seen a good kicker, or a very potent red zone offense yet. Fortunately for us, we have both. Teams have been to the RZ 7 times against UK, and UK has allowed 2 touchdowns. Teams have been to the RZ 5 times against UF, and UF has allowed 2 touchdowns. Take what you will from it, but I'll call a push here. Kentucky has seen better competition than ECU and New Mexico St. though.
Advantage in special teams: Kentucky
No stats here. Both teams have shown to be good in kick and punt coverage, the difference maker here is the field goal kickers. Florida fans have been absolutely infuriated with their kicker, meanwhile, ours was 1st team All-SEC last season, and has broken numerous school records.
Defensive front 7 personnel:
I give Florida the advantage here, mostly because of the depth of their defensive line. Their linebackers aren't overly impressive to me, as they struggle greatly in pass coverage.
Offensive line:
I'll call a push here. Kentucky has size and experience on its size, and the benefit of having one of the best centers in the country. Florida may have the luxury of an instant-impact 5 star player, but he's bouncing back from a knee surgery this week, and Florida's entire line is incredibly youthful. Game experience for their o-line is few and far between, meanwhile, our offensive line has seen a ton of game experience.
Running backs:
Kentucky has the clear advantage here.
Florida goes 3 deep at the RB position, none of those RB's have been even slightly impressive. Through 2 games:
JR Kelvin Taylor has ran the ball 24 times, has ran for 109 yards, and 2 touchdowns.
FR Jordan Cronkrite has ran the ball 14 times, has ran for 71 yards, and 1 touchdown.
FR Jordan Scarlett has ran the ball 12 times, has ran for 58 yards, and 1 touchdown.
Meanwhile, Kentucky, who also goes 3 deep at the RB position, has been quite impressive through 2 games:
SO Boom Williams has ran the ball 24 times, has ran for 242 yards and 1 touchdown
JR Jojo Kemp has ran the ball 16 times, has ran for 112 yards, and 1 touchdown
SO Mikel Horton has ran the ball 8 times, has ran for 48 yards, and 2 touchdowns
Personnel-wise, none of Florida's RB's are very impressive, which is great.
Receivers:
Kentucky has the advantage here. Shannon Dawson is adamant that Garrett Johnson (who demolished UF last season) is as good as any WR that he's ever coached, and he coached Kevin White just last season at WVU. Hargreaves will likely draw that assignment, but who will cover Dorian Baker (who drags CB's 5 yards downfield every play, and has ridiculous size, speed, and athleticism), and Jeff Badet (will be the fastest guy in the secondary, burns CB's in every game we've ever seen from him). I'll also add Conrad, because of his stud-like athleticism and pass catching ability (based on what the staff has said). Florida's linebackers are poor in coverage, so this could be a big day for Conrad.
On the flip side of things, Florida only has one truly impressive WR (Robinson).
Defensive backs:
Florida has an advantage here, mostly because of Hargreaves, but I think if you were to take Hargreaves out of the equation, Kentucky has the advantage because of Westry, and Stamps, who skill-wise, may be the next best 2 players out of this group on both teams combined. Could prove to be big for us if Hargreaves is out Saturday.
Let's look at some staff, and then compare some personnel!
Pass defense:
Kentucky:
454 yards
1 touchdown allowed
3 interceptions
115.35 QBR allowed
19 first downs allowed
3 passes for 25+ yards allowed
Florida:
482 yards
4 touchdowns allowed
2 interceptions
116.88 QBR allowed
20 first downs allowed
5 passes for 25+ yards allowed
Advantage in overall pass defense: Kentucky
The defenses do it 2 different ways. Kentucky does play more of a bend-but-don't-break defense, opposed to the lockdown defense that Florida plays. Both have advantages, both have downfalls.
If a lockdown defense is broken through (as Florida has been prone to thus far), you become significantly more susceptible to giving up touchdowns, and it makes it more difficult to make plays on the defensive side of the ball. That is why Kentucky seems to have the clear advantage against the pass. Florida has allowed 4 passing TD's this season. Kentucky has only allowed 1 TD thus-far.
Run defense:
Kentucky:
442 yards
5 touchdowns allowed
24 first downs allowed
5 runs for 20+ yards
Florida:
51 yards
1 touchdown allowed
5 first downs allowed
1 run for 20+ yards
Advantage in overall run defense: Florida
It's worth noting that teams have ran the ball against UK nearly twice as many times, but let's assume that you doubled all of Florida's numbers, they still would only allow 102 yards, 2 touchdowns, 10 first downs allowed, and 2 runs for 20+ yards. Still elite numbers, because Florida is an elite run defense. It goes without saying that UK will definitely be the best running team, and best offensive team that Florida has faced overall.
Kentucky needs to shore up its run defense in the 2nd half (if it plays like it does in the first half, for the full game, this would be close to a push, but alas). For what it's worth, I still think they would have elite numbers if they went against the first two teams that we played, rather than the first 2 teams that they played.
Passing offense:
Kentucky:
449 yards
3 touchdowns
2 interceptions
Florida:
589 yards
6 touchdowns
1 interceptions
Advantage in overall passing offense: Push
This one is tough. We've seen what outmatched DB's can look like. Patrick Towles went against the winner of the Sun-Belt conference, and despite playing a poor game overall, still came away with 3 touchdowns, and 200+ yards passing in the first half because our wide receivers beat them so badly on nearly every single play. Statistically, Florida is the team, but when you watch the teams that they played, the passing defenses they went against are hardly impressive. Now they're going to go against a pass defense which, overall, is better than their own. We'll touch on the personnel a bit later, which I think is what makes this a push between the two offenses.
Rushing offense:
Kentucky:
485 yards
5 touchdowns
6.02 yards per carry
Florida:
490 yards
5 touchdowns
4.94 yards per carry
Advantage in overall rushing offense: Kentucky
This one is also tough, but I'm just considering the competition. Kentucky's 2 opponents are easily more difficult than Florida's 2 opponents. Will also touch on the personnel here.
Advantage in Red Zone offense: Kentucky
Florida did not look great in the Red Zone against East Carolina. Scored 3 times out of 5 trips to the RZ, 2 rushing TD's, 1 FG. Kentucky, on the other hand, going back to last season, has scored on 20 of their past 20 trips to the RZ (7-for-7 this season, 4 rushing touchdowns, 1 passing touchdown, 2 field goals), and against South Carolina, who just the game before, held a North Carolina team that was one of the top 5 RZ touchdown scoring teams in the country (and they also returned 10 starters to that offense).
Advantage in Red Zone defense: Push
Getting points in the red zone could be as simple as having a good kicker (which we do, and they do not). Florida has some good numbers because they haven't seen a good kicker, or a very potent red zone offense yet. Fortunately for us, we have both. Teams have been to the RZ 7 times against UK, and UK has allowed 2 touchdowns. Teams have been to the RZ 5 times against UF, and UF has allowed 2 touchdowns. Take what you will from it, but I'll call a push here. Kentucky has seen better competition than ECU and New Mexico St. though.
Advantage in special teams: Kentucky
No stats here. Both teams have shown to be good in kick and punt coverage, the difference maker here is the field goal kickers. Florida fans have been absolutely infuriated with their kicker, meanwhile, ours was 1st team All-SEC last season, and has broken numerous school records.
Defensive front 7 personnel:
I give Florida the advantage here, mostly because of the depth of their defensive line. Their linebackers aren't overly impressive to me, as they struggle greatly in pass coverage.
Offensive line:
I'll call a push here. Kentucky has size and experience on its size, and the benefit of having one of the best centers in the country. Florida may have the luxury of an instant-impact 5 star player, but he's bouncing back from a knee surgery this week, and Florida's entire line is incredibly youthful. Game experience for their o-line is few and far between, meanwhile, our offensive line has seen a ton of game experience.
Running backs:
Kentucky has the clear advantage here.
Florida goes 3 deep at the RB position, none of those RB's have been even slightly impressive. Through 2 games:
JR Kelvin Taylor has ran the ball 24 times, has ran for 109 yards, and 2 touchdowns.
FR Jordan Cronkrite has ran the ball 14 times, has ran for 71 yards, and 1 touchdown.
FR Jordan Scarlett has ran the ball 12 times, has ran for 58 yards, and 1 touchdown.
Meanwhile, Kentucky, who also goes 3 deep at the RB position, has been quite impressive through 2 games:
SO Boom Williams has ran the ball 24 times, has ran for 242 yards and 1 touchdown
JR Jojo Kemp has ran the ball 16 times, has ran for 112 yards, and 1 touchdown
SO Mikel Horton has ran the ball 8 times, has ran for 48 yards, and 2 touchdowns
Personnel-wise, none of Florida's RB's are very impressive, which is great.
Receivers:
Kentucky has the advantage here. Shannon Dawson is adamant that Garrett Johnson (who demolished UF last season) is as good as any WR that he's ever coached, and he coached Kevin White just last season at WVU. Hargreaves will likely draw that assignment, but who will cover Dorian Baker (who drags CB's 5 yards downfield every play, and has ridiculous size, speed, and athleticism), and Jeff Badet (will be the fastest guy in the secondary, burns CB's in every game we've ever seen from him). I'll also add Conrad, because of his stud-like athleticism and pass catching ability (based on what the staff has said). Florida's linebackers are poor in coverage, so this could be a big day for Conrad.
On the flip side of things, Florida only has one truly impressive WR (Robinson).
Defensive backs:
Florida has an advantage here, mostly because of Hargreaves, but I think if you were to take Hargreaves out of the equation, Kentucky has the advantage because of Westry, and Stamps, who skill-wise, may be the next best 2 players out of this group on both teams combined. Could prove to be big for us if Hargreaves is out Saturday.
![[laughing]](http://l.yimg.com/j/assets/img/emoticons/classic/laugh.r191677.gif "Laughing [laughing]")
