My ESPN Insider has UK among 10 most likely 1st round upsets 😩

[JST390-2]

No. 11 Providence Friarsvs. No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats
Upset chance: 40%

Last year, John Calipari's Wildcats were the first team to lose to Cinderella darling Saint Peter's in a 15-over-2 upset that shook the NCAA tournament. In fact, Kentucky, which has the nation's leading rebounder in Oscar Tshiebwe(13.1 RPG), hasn't reached the second weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019, so they have shown they are susceptible to early round upsets.

Perhaps the formula for Providence is to follow the Peacocks. Last year, they ranked among the teams to shoot the fewest amount of 3-pointers per game, but Kentucky couldn't stop them (9-for-17 from 3). Providence doesn't shoot as many 3-point shots either, but in averaging 78.1 points per game, the Wildcats will need to keep up with the Friars. Keep in mind that the Friars shoot 38% from deep in their 21 wins, which would rank 21st nationally. However, they shoot 30.4% from beyond the arc in their 11 losses, a figure that would rank 340th.

Giant Killers' 10 most likely first-round upsets in the 2023 men's NCAA tournament

Looking for a first-round upset? The Giant Killers model sees a few for teams like Drake and Montana State.

www.espn.com

 

[Big Cat fan]

This will not be an upset. This is a 50/50 game. It depends on the style of play. If we take shots inside 8 seconds on the shot clock we going home.

 

[Wildcats1st]

This guy says we re sweet sixteen https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...zello-predicts-how-men-march-madness-play-out

Anyone seen us picked higher than this?

 

[canebreak]

His comment about 3’s is idiotic. I’m sure our 3 percent is similar in wins and losses.

This is a made for TV game with all pressure on UK.

 

[SaltyCat22]

Vegas has the line wrong. Take the points. We’ll be all lovey dovey pre-game with Hopkins, will be all poop coming outta Cal’s mouth. Cal will say how proud of he is of our guys for making the tournament post-game.

 

[irishcat1965]

UK could very well lose the game but this writer is an absolute idiot. He says we are susceptible to upsets since we haven’t reached the second round since 2019. Well, there was no tournament in 2020 and we didn’t make the tournament in 2021.

 

[BBNinSC]

This team is good enough to beat Providence and they will

 

[Big Cat fan]

This team is good enough to beat Providence and they will

We only get one 40 mins to prove it.

 

[JST390-2]

Evan has us making the sweet 16

 

[BigBlueManSouthCentralKY]

FWIW Las Vegas says that Houston will win it all.

 

[Padsfs07]

FWIW Las Vegas says that Houston will win it all.

Houston may have a hobbled Sasser.

 

[know1]

It's a tough first round game. Probably tougher than the 2nd round, actually.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

I mean it's a 6 vs 11. Upsets more likely there.

His point about the upset is nonsense though as there is no pattern there. One instance doesn't make it a pattern.

 

[FltDoc]

(after losing to Candy twice in 10 days, we shouldn't be expecting much, but appreciate any more wins...)

My, how far we've fallin'

 

[Cowtown Cat]

No. 11 Providence Friarsvs. No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats
Upset chance: 40%

Last year, John Calipari's Wildcats were the first team to lose to Cinderella darling Saint Peter's in a 15-over-2 upset that shook the NCAA tournament. In fact, Kentucky, which has the nation's leading rebounder in Oscar Tshiebwe(13.1 RPG), hasn't reached the second weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019, so they have shown they are susceptible to early round upsets.

Perhaps the formula for Providence is to follow the Peacocks. Last year, they ranked among the teams to shoot the fewest amount of 3-pointers per game, but Kentucky couldn't stop them (9-for-17 from 3). Providence doesn't shoot as many 3-point shots either, but in averaging 78.1 points per game, the Wildcats will need to keep up with the Friars. Keep in mind that the Friars shoot 38% from deep in their 21 wins, which would rank 21st nationally. However, they shoot 30.4% from beyond the arc in their 11 losses, a figure that would rank 340th.

Giant Killers' 10 most likely first-round upsets in the 2023 men's NCAA tournament

Looking for a first-round upset? The Giant Killers model sees a few for teams like Drake and Montana State.

www.espn.com

Susceptible to early round upsets?! Look, I’m down on Cal, too. However, we’ve only been upset in an early round ONCE his entire tenure here.

 

[Cefiro]

This team is good enough to beat Providence and they will

This team is also good enough to beat Vandy. We lost to them two times in 10 days

 

[TankedCat]

I think we are going to win this game for one reason only - Cal doesn't want to live the summer out with ending the season on a loss to a team like Providence which will define he has lost it as an elite coach. So he is going to get off the couch, put away the bag of chips, put the dog in the kennel and actually put in a solid week of coaching to get this team ready, I think UK will win by at least 8 points. Just enough ammo for Cal to show BBN he can still win a tourney game.

Then after we win over Providence, he is going to revert back to his old ways of coaching, worrying more about whats for dinner than who is the next opponent. Mysteriously we'll have an injury or some other issue that will be an excuse as to why we couldn't be at 100%, fully focused

 

[RondoBaller21]

I hope CJ, Wallace and Wheeler can all be healthy, otherwise I can see an upset happening like last year.

 

[G-PIP]

Houston may have a hobbled Sasser.

That makes it tough for me picking my bracket. I like the fact that Houston won't quit fighting whether they're making shots or not. But without Sasser I think it hurts their offense so much I'm afraid they could go out fairly early.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

10 most likely upsets, out of 32 games, when 12 of those games (the 1, 2s and 3s) likely weren't picked for upsets... Doesn't mean much lol.

Now if it was "The 3 most likely upsets" then we have a problem. But I'm not shocked 6-seed Kentucky is on someone's top10 upset alert list haha.

 

[fatguy87]

Vandy is not in the tournament so we don’t have much to fear.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

The REAL story here, is that someone is actually paying for ESPN Insider lolol.

 

[SparksCat]

We will give up many open-look 3s. That’s our M.O.

It’s over if they are hitting them.

 

[Oboro3]

If we are healthy, we are at least a sweet 16 team, possibly playing in the elite 8

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

I didn’t see it in the list but furman to me can beat Virginia I don’t know why that one isn’t being talked about more

 

[JST390-2]

10 most likely upsets, out of 32 games, when 12 of those games (the 1, 2s and 3s) likely weren't picked for upsets... Doesn't mean much lol.

Now if it was "The 3 most likely upsets" then we have a problem. But I'm not shocked 6-seed Kentucky is on someone's top10 upset alert list haha.

No. 14 Montana State Bobcats vs. No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats
Upset chance: 26%

Now we're getting adventurous. Ready to pick a No. 14 seed? You're looking at just a one-in-four chance, of course, and we're already a long way down from the probabilities seen just three or so games higher on this list. Nevertheless, the Giant Killers model clearly likes what it sees from the Bobcats.

Danny Sprinkle's team absolutely lives at the line, and for its part Kansas State has been known to commit the occasional foul. If this turns into a choppy contest that puts one or more Wildcats into foul trouble, we could be looking at one significant upset.

 

[JST390-2]

No. 12 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. No. 5 Duke Blue Devils
Upset chance: 21%

How appropriate! The Oral Roberts coaching staff struggled mightily to schedule major conference opponents this season. Now the Golden Eagles will face no less a blue-chip name than Duke.

ORU was turned away by power conference programs that didn't fancy facing a scorer as prolific as Max Abmas. Nor did those potential opponents want much to do with 7-foot-5 Arkansas transfer Connor Vanover. The Giant Killers model suspects Oral Roberts will get many chances to score in this game. The Golden Eagles own the nation's lowest turnover percentage, and the Blue Devils don't record many takeaways.

No. 13 Iona Gaels vs. No. 4 UConn Huskies
Upset chance: 25%

Iona won the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference for the second time in three years under coach Rick Pitino and for the sixth time since the 2015-16 season. It shouldn't come as a surprise: The Gaels have won 14 straight games, holding opponents to 60 or fewer points nine of those times.

The Gaels can defend. They ranked eighth in opponents' 3-point field goal percentage -- which matches up well against a UConn team that relies heavily on the 3-ball -- but how will they measure up along the boards? The Huskies, with a frontcourt led by 6-foot-9 forward Adama Sanogo and freshmen Alex Karaban (6-8) and Donovan Clingan (7-2), rank second among all 363 teams in rebound margin (plus-9.1).

 

[crawfords corner]

Locke, Carter, Bynum, and Hopkins have shot the 3 very well since conference started. If UK doesn't defend the 3 that game they are going to get curb stomped based off of those 3 point shooting statistics.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Yeah I put "Likely" there for a reason. I'm sure ONE of the 3-seeds was going to get listed (for the reason the author put them there, because you have to pick one).. but by and large, if you're trying to find 10-upsets, it's going to come from the 7-4 seeds.

 

[track42]

Locke, Carter, Bynum, and Hopkins have shot the 3 very well since conference started. If UK doesn't defend the 3 that game they are going to get curb stomped based off of those 3 point shooting statistics.

The whole team actually takes very few 3's in you look at the numbers.

 

[Runnin'Ramel]

Susceptible to early round upsets?! Look, I’m down on Cal, too. However, we’ve only been upset in an early round ONCE his entire tenure here.

And it was last year. Data from 10 years ago is not relevant at all. This is the current Cal, not the energized, swaggy Cal hanging his nuts on people.

 

[crawfords corner]

The whole team actually takes very few 3's in you look at the numbers.

Right, but when conference season started they made a lot of what they took.

Carter was the worst shooter during that time. 24-75
Hopkins 20-48. Thats 41.7%
Bynum 29-70 for 41.4%
Locke 45-109 for 41.3%

118 of 302 which comes out to 39.1%. Take out Carter and Hopkins, Bynum, and Locke made 94 of 227 shots from behind the arc. That's 41%.


UK's defense has a tendency to give up wide open looks. Providence won't be afraid to take them if that's what UK gives them.

 

[irishcat1965]

And it was last year. Data from 10 years ago is not relevant at all. This is the current Cal, not the energized, swaggy Cal hanging his nuts on people.

Doesn’t matter what Cal this is. The statement is just flat wrong even if you just include the past five years.

 

[KyCatFan]

You don't need ESPN Insider to tell you that. The Cats Illustrated regular posters could tell you we are ripe for the "upset" in the first round.

 

[JFCats22]

Bilas picks UK to beat Providence and Kansas St

 

[JonathanW]

No. 11 Providence Friarsvs. No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats
Upset chance: 40%

Last year, John Calipari's Wildcats were the first team to lose to Cinderella darling Saint Peter's in a 15-over-2 upset that shook the NCAA tournament. In fact, Kentucky, which has the nation's leading rebounder in Oscar Tshiebwe(13.1 RPG), hasn't reached the second weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019, so they have shown they are susceptible to early round upsets.

Perhaps the formula for Providence is to follow the Peacocks. Last year, they ranked among the teams to shoot the fewest amount of 3-pointers per game, but Kentucky couldn't stop them (9-for-17 from 3). Providence doesn't shoot as many 3-point shots either, but in averaging 78.1 points per game, the Wildcats will need to keep up with the Friars. Keep in mind that the Friars shoot 38% from deep in their 21 wins, which would rank 21st nationally. However, they shoot 30.4% from beyond the arc in their 11 losses, a figure that would rank 340th.

Giant Killers' 10 most likely first-round upsets in the 2023 men's NCAA tournament

Looking for a first-round upset? The Giant Killers model sees a few for teams like Drake and Montana State.

www.espn.com

What a shocker!!!
A team shoots better when it wins than when it loses.

 

[gharding07]

This guy says we re sweet sixteen https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...zello-predicts-how-men-march-madness-play-out

Anyone seen us picked higher than this?

One of the cbs "experts" has us losing to Duke to go to the F4...I'd rather eat glass!

 

[saxonburgcat]

"hasn't reached the second weekend of the NCAA tournament since 2019, so they have shown they are susceptible to early round upsets."

Okay, how stupid can you be to make this statement?? In the 4 years since UK was in the E8, we had 2020 tournament cancelled, 2021 tournament UK didn't make it and in 2022 we lost in the first round. 2023 tournament is just beginning.

These writers don't do their research or intentionally mislead. Not sure which?

 

[littlecreek]

Honestly, would we surprised if Kentucky got beat?

 

[G-PIP]

Honestly, would we surprised if Kentucky got beat?

Not at all. I believe this game could go either way. I don't personally see UK as any kind of favorite. I'll be happy as he** if UK beats Providence. UK's history and tradition doesn't change how good this year's team is - and they're not a favorite to do anything in this tournament for a very good reason. I'm going to enjoy every game UK wins in the tournament (if any); and have no expectation for winning any game - hope but not expectation.