Well I was debating about the 2012 team. Maybe I misunderstood.
I think it's largely a myth. College basketball is relatively easy to pick a champion. Dating back ten years, I'd say I "knew" who the champion was going to be at least half the time. 05 and 09 UNC were as close to guarantees as it gets (08 Florida was a given). 2012 was seen by thousands as a fairly sure bet. Duke was seen as one of the favorites in 2015.
Nothing's for sure, but I don't believe college basketball is some unpredictable sport. IMO Cals teams not finishing some years have played into this belief, and I credit that more to youth.
Florida didn't win 2008, so that's not a given.