Maybe the most damning “stat” I’ve seen

[CatPhight]

Anatomy of a Death Spiral

6 seasons - 2009 thru 2015 .833 25 NCAA wins 4 Final Fours 1 Natty
************** 2015 - Elected to Basketball Hall of Fame ***************
9 seasons - 2016 thru present .724 11 NCAA wins 0 Final Fours
4+ seasons - 2019 thru present .676 4 NCAA wins 0 Final Fours

 

[docholiday51]

That is true and the number one reason he should shorten the rotation. We need our best guys getting the most offensive looks and defensive rotations.

Playing our best guys last night would have meant finishing the game with 3 players(Dillingham, Mitchell and Reeves) I agree with your point but who are our best 7 guys in a game like that? I don't think Bradshaw or Edwards make the top seven. O and Z are on the fringe because they are 7 feet tall and we need 1 big other than Mitchell on the floor. That leaves Sheppard and Wagner since Theiro is somewhere in limbo.

I guess starters would be Mitchell, Reeves, Dillingham, Sheppard and Wagner with O and Z off the bench(that ain't gonna work) Start O or Z and bring Sheppard or Wagner off the bench (probably not an option) Back to my original question who are the top 7 if you are trying to put the best offensive/defensive balanced team on the floor for the most minutes. It might involve at least one player outside those mentioned

You are a pretty level headed poster, really want to read what you think the best solution might be

 

[Fox2monk]

Playing our best guys last night would have meant finishing the game with 3 players(Dillingham, Mitchell and Reeves) I agree with your point but who are our best 7 guys in a game like that? I don't think Bradshaw or Edwards make the top seven. O and Z are on the fringe because they are 7 feet tall and we need 1 big other than Mitchell on the floor. That leaves Sheppard and Wagner since Theiro is somewhere in limbo.

I guess starters would be Mitchell, Reeves, Dillingham, Sheppard and Wagner with O and Z off the bench(that ain't gonna work) Start O or Z and bring Sheppard or Wagner off the bench (probably not an option) Back to my original question who are the top 7 if you are trying to put the best offensive/defensive balanced team on the floor for the most minutes. It might involve at least one player outside those mentioned

You are a pretty level headed poster, really want to read what you think the best solution might be

Wagner
Sheppard
Reeves
Mitchell
Z

Dilly
Bradshaw
Adou(when healthy) until then Edwards for forwards.

Ugonna gets spot mintues for foul trouble for breathers for Z. I’m even saying play Burks, he played better when we went small IMO.

We need to play

Wagner
Dilly
Sheppard
Reeves
Mitchell
Big Z
Adou(when healthy)
Bradshaw

The majority of the game from now on. Only sub out when tired or foul trouble. We have to get some consistency with our guards and forwards playing together the most possession. Not 19 different lineups a game. We won’t win with the majoirty of our lineup playing 3 minutes or less together. Mixing these big men won’t work. We need one max at a time. Unfortunately with Adou out Edwards must play but Cal has to limit his minutes as much as possible.

 

[cats2010]

We know 1 of the 2 rotations that got 3 minutes was the starting lineup which consist of arguably our two worst players in our current 9 man rotation. Guessing they were probably part of the other rotation as well that also played 3 minutes in succession. 19 rotations that played a single minute of game action together is just unfathomable. No wonder we looked like shit all night, our own coach kept us off balance the whole damn night.

 

[cats2010]

Wagner
Sheppard
Reeves
Mitchell
Z

Dilly
Bradshaw
Adou(when healthy) until then Edwards for forwards.

Ugonna gets spot mintues for foul trouble for breathers for Z. I’m even saying play Burks, he played better when we went small IMO.

We need to play

Wagner
Dilly
Sheppard
Reeves
Mitchell
Big Z
Adou(when healthy)
Bradshaw

The majority of the game from now on. Only sub out when tired or foul trouble. We have to get some consistency with our guards and forwards playing together the most possession. Not 19 different lineups a game. We won’t win with the majoirty of our lineup playing 3 minutes or less together. Mixing these big men won’t work. We need one max at a time. Unfortunately with Adou out Edwards must play but Cal has to limit his minutes as much as possible.

Our best 5 on the floor right now is dilly, shep, reeves, Mitchell and Z. Theiro, Wagner would be first off the bench with ugo/bradshaw splitting up minutes subbing for Z. I have still liked Ugo moreso than Bradshaw but Bradshaw did show me a different side last night I have yet to see. He played hard and was going after it which hasn’t been the case. We won’t ever see this however as cal is an idiot and will continue to play Wagner/bradshaw/edwards, results be damned.

 

[KyCPA]

I'll defend Cal on this because I didn't think usc could keep up that level of intensity and keep hitting shots the way they did. I even said so on here, that I thought at halftime, USC would lose their legs and we'd be fine. I was wrong and that's all. I think Cal thought the same way and was subbing to keep our players rested. IDK! Hindsight is always 20/20. Doesn't stop people though

If he wants to wear teams down he needs to full court press the whole game

 

[ukfan1622]

We probably need to narrow this to a core of 6-7 guys.

Please, no! Edwards would be getting 34 mpg.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

And what does it look like with Thiero back?!?! I partially think Cal is trying to “look out for the kid” in his mind and get him to transfer somewhere to get minutes because he knows he already has a major issue in getting all his other boys minutes. Can’t stand the dude and it gets worse with every stupid decision he makes (and mockery of the fans/program afterwards).

Can he still play elsewhere this year? If not, 7K will have almost unlimited minutes for him next year.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

How about these defensive numbers.

Teams 71st or below have never won more than 3 games.

Only one team 76th or below has ever made the final four...Marquette in 2003

No team has ever won a title below 38th.

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Thanks Tubby.

 

[Catfanlou]

Well, this might have to do with Big Z.. he's going to skew these stats a bit, if I'm understanding this correctly.

Regardless, It's almost February, Cal needs to settle on his lineups. Edwards out. Wagner off the ball IMO. Shep and Reed need all the minutes they can handle. Dilly likely as well.

I hope Cal realizes Z will be the best pro of the bunch . Does he really want to go down in history as the coach that didn’t start Z . Didn’t play him enough minutes so as to not hurt other players feelings . Lost in first or second round again because of it.
was not hurting Harrison’s feelings worth a national championship?
There was a reason Adolf Never played more than five unless he had to because of injuries or fouls . Chemistry .
Starting line up should b Z, Sheppard or Dilly at point . Other at 2 . Mitchell and Reeves . i realize players should not play forty minutes in this era. However each of the aforementioned starters should play at least thirty coming out only when they want or foul trouble. Ugonna should b first off the bench for the bigs and Wagner for the other three which would give Wagner about thirty minutes .
Of course this is only if we want to win. May not help draft night .

 

[docholiday51]

Wagner
Sheppard
Reeves
Mitchell
Z

Dilly
Bradshaw
Adou(when healthy) until then Edwards for forwards.

Ugonna gets spot mintues for foul trouble for breathers for Z. I’m even saying play Burks, he played better when we went small IMO.

We need to play

Wagner
Dilly
Sheppard
Reeves
Mitchell
Big Z
Adou(when healthy)
Bradshaw

The majority of the game from now on. Only sub out when tired or foul trouble. We have to get some consistency with our guards and forwards playing together the most possession. Not 19 different lineups a game. We won’t win with the majoirty of our lineup playing 3 minutes or less together. Mixing these big men won’t work. We need one max at a time. Unfortunately with Adou out Edwards must play but Cal has to limit his minutes as much as possible.

Agree with 90% of what you say. Would be 100% but I haven's seen enough of Z yet. He made a couple of poor choices(shots) last night and didn't show as much hustle as I thought he should at times. No doubt he more of the skills we need than the other two 7 footers

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

So much for Cal listening to John Wall's advice to just let the kids play.

 

[Mike-McD]

Our best 5 on the floor right now is dilly, shep, reeves, Mitchell and Z. Theiro, Wagner would be first off the bench with ugo/bradshaw splitting up minutes subbing for Z. I have still liked Ugo moreso than Bradshaw but Bradshaw did show me a different side last night I have yet to see. He played hard and was going after it which hasn’t been the case. We won’t ever see this however as cal is an idiot and will continue to play Wagner/bradshaw/edwards, results be damned.

Thank you. Everyone here is terrified of saying what everyone knows - that Wagner shouldn't be starting.

 

[bigblueinsanity]

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Not only does he not know how to coach, he doesn’t even know how to manage a roster or substitute correctly lol

Imo this is a major reason we struggled on O. We had zero chance to ever get in a groove because it was a revolving door.

This season will truly test Cal's "we all eat" bs.

There are guys that clearly don't deserve the minutes they get (Edwards, Bradshaw, and to an extent Wagner). There are games/matchups some guys just shouldn't play at all (onyenso and Bradshaw). Yet vs south Carolina he traded our best chance for victory to make sure everyone had enough minutes.

Most of his career, cal only 6-7 guys and was wildly successful. Over the last few years, cal switched to the mantra that he was playing guys no matter what, which was to benefit the player. Not coincidentally that's exactly when we started struggling as a program. Also always just happens to be the top recruits who are underperforming. Somehow the other guys' future just doesn't matter as much.

So the season depends on if he's willing to hurt some feelings to give us a real chance at a title or if he will just put one or two kids above everything and everyone else. Because it's only going to get more logjammed when thiero comes back.

 

[UKortho]

Our best 5 on the floor right now is dilly, shep, reeves, Mitchell and Z. Theiro, Wagner would be first off the bench with ugo/bradshaw splitting up minutes subbing for Z. I have still liked Ugo moreso than Bradshaw but Bradshaw did show me a different side last night I have yet to see. He played hard and was going after it which hasn’t been the case. We won’t ever see this however as cal is an idiot and will continue to play Wagner/bradshaw/edwards, results be damned.

This is my thoughts as well. Need to throw in that DJ doesn’t need to be playing the last two minutes of a tight game. Turnover issues.

 

[The_Answer1313]

This is my thoughts as well. Need to throw in that DJ doesn’t need to be playing the last two minutes of a tight game. Turnover issues.

Then again DJ has a lower turnover rate compared to Dilly and Reed.

 

[UKortho]

Then again DJ has a lower turnover rate compared to Dilly and Reed.

That might be true. The last possession during Florida and A & M were turnovers by DJ. Possibly won’t happen again- but he seemed to respond differently when the game was on the line.

 

[docholiday51]

Conventional wisdom is don't over react to the game Tuesday night, however that clusterf(@& is hard to ignore. It ranks right up there with UNCW. The fact that two such games happened the same year is cause for concern. UT, AU, Bama are still waiting for this bunch and a repeat performance of Tuesday night and we are looking at a 30+ point beating. The end of January isn't the ideal time to be regrouping after a meltdown like we saw.

What does Cal do different? Does he do anything different? Can we at least fix our baseline inbound defense, it has been embarrassing for 2 games in a row.

 

[coachcombs57]

Tend to attribute this to, "nothing is working let's start throwing stuff at the wall and see what sticks"

 

[docholiday51]

Tend to attribute this to, "nothing is working let's start throwing stuff at the wall and see what sticks"

If your reference is to Cal, the first order of business is to at least hit the wall when you throw stuff

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

Another sad stat. Cal is 9-7 in his last 16 SEC road games

 

[EliteBlue]

We probably need to narrow this to a core of 6-7 guys.

The rest become situational or get scraps.

Two guys I wonder about are Edwards and Bradshaw. What do these guys bring that isn't done better by someone else?

Cals greater commitment to draft night and avoiding negative recruiting in the future by coaches saying “Bradshaw and Edwards were top 10 picks and Cal turned them into second rounders and benched them”. Thats all they really have going for them that someone behind them doesn’t have.

Same with all the overachievers we’ve had in the NBA. Initially the narrative was “look at how Cal gets these guys ready”. But when it becomes the norm and we are underperforming as a team for half a decade that narrative has now became “Cal is holding those guys back and is failing with all that talent the thrives once they get away from him”

 

[Mike-McD]

Another sad stat. Cal is 9-7 in his last 16 SEC road games

Should be its own thread.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

Should be its own thread.

Probably but I though I’ve started enough the past couple of days I’m gonna dial it back a little

 

[The_Answer1313]

We probably need to narrow this to a core of 6-7 guys.

The rest become situational or get scraps.

Two guys I wonder about are Edwards and Bradshaw. What do these guys bring that isn't done better by someone else?

I think this is the tricky part with all of this.

On one hand, we know guys develop at different rates. I don't think PJ Washington really figured it out until halfway through year 2. So you want to give Edwards and Bradshaw as much time as possible. Having two additional guys figure it out could only help going forward.

On the other hand, it's January 25th and we need to win ballgames and get a good seed.

It's the constant weighing between going all out now and just using your best guys or maybe sacrificing a bit now for the possibility of being even better in the future.

We haven't seen good performances from Edwards or Bradshaw. Is it entirely possible they are just busts? Sure. Is it possible they are good players that are just struggling to figure it out and need more time? See I think there's an equal chance of that as well.

It's not really a clear cut decision IMO.

 

[gharding07]

This is my thoughts as well. Need to throw in that DJ doesn’t need to be playing the last two minutes of a tight game. Turnover issues.

Rob has the most turnovers per game on the team. Reed is tied with DJ for 2nd.

 

[docholiday51]

I think this is the tricky part with all of this.

On one hand, we know guys develop at different rates. I don't think PJ Washington really figured it out until halfway through year 2. So you want to give Edwards and Bradshaw as much time as possible. Having two additional guys figure it out could only help going forward.

On the other hand, it's January 25th and we need to win ballgames and get a good seed.

It's the constant weighing between going all out now and just using your best guys or maybe sacrificing a bit now for the possibility of being even better in the future.

We haven't seen good performances from Edwards or Bradshaw. Is it entirely possible they are just busts? Sure. Is it possible they are good players that are just struggling to figure it out and need more time? See I think there's an equal chance of that as well.

It's not really a clear cut decision IMO.

It is a tricky situation, we keep focusing on the top 7 or so guys but it is possible #'s 8 and 9 bring as much to the table as does #7. Right now Edwards is outside the top 8 and Bradshaw outside the top 7. We will never see them in that position.

 

[UKortho]

Rob has the most turnovers per game on the team. Reed is tied with DJ for 2nd.

Yes. I know. I am speaking about the two most recent end of game situations were we really needed a basket. Florida (we still won) and A&M (could have iced the game but lost in OT). Wag lost it both times.

Plus- Wagner isn’t that great of a shooter or assist guy.

 

[gharding07]

Yes. I know. I am speaking about the two most recent end of game situations were we really needed a basket. Florida (we still won) and A&M (could have iced the game but lost in OT). Wag lost it both times.

A&M wasn't DJ's fault. Rob made a really bad pass, and shouldn't have passed it up to begin with. He was on fire.

 

[Mike-McD]

Rob has the most turnovers per game on the team. Reed is tied with DJ for 2nd.

Please tell me that you don't honestly believe that the ball is better in DJ's hands than Reed and Rob's. Is that the point you're trying to make? Come right out and say it, sack up. Don't be afraid to take a stand.

 

[UKortho]

A&M wasn't DJ's fault. Rob made a really bad pass, and shouldn't have passed it up to begin with. He was on fire.

With truly due respect- I like your posts and agree with most- I still think DJ should have hung onto that pass If the same thing didn’t happen twice I wouldn’t be worried.

And I don’t trust his offensive abilities. His offensive efficiency is identical to Edwards.

 

[gharding07]

Please tell me that you don't honestly believe that the ball is better in DJ's hands than Reed and Rob's. Is that the point you're trying to make? Come right out and say it, sack up. Don't be afraid to take a stand.

Depends on the game, he did have 10 assists against Georgia. And is tied w/Rob in assists per. Rob has had some atrocious turnovers some games. Reed too.

 

[FltDoc]

So as of tonight Couch Cal is down a point to a .676 winning percentage...all that remains is whether we lose 12 games like we did last year. We lost 6 $EC games last year (12-6) and are on a pace (4-2) for a repeat.

According to that we should consider bringing Pitino back!

😁

 

[The_Answer1313]

Please tell me that you don't honestly believe that the ball is better in DJ's hands than Reed and Rob's. Is that the point you're trying to make? Come right out and say it, sack up. Don't be afraid to take a stand.

Current turnover % rates

Antonio Reeves = 9.3%
Aaron Bradshaw = 9.4%
Tre Mitchell = 12.5%
Justin Edwards = 12.6%
DJ Wagner = 13.1%
Thiero = 13.8%
Dilly = 15.3%
Reed = 17.9%

I am completely saying that DJ is better at not turning it over than Rob and Reed. Reed has a knack for the ball and can create turnovers but there's been times where he's been careless with the ball.

Having said that, this team is 3rd in the nation in turnover %. All of those numbers above (including Reed) is still pretty damn good.

 

[fatguy87]

Current turnover % rates

Antonio Reeves = 9.3%
Aaron Bradshaw = 9.4%
Tre Mitchell = 12.5%
Justin Edwards = 12.6%
DJ Wagner = 13.1%
Thiero = 13.8%
Dilly = 15.3%
Reed = 17.9%

I am completely saying that DJ is better at not turning it over than Rob and Reed. Reed has a knack for the ball and can create turnovers but there's been times where he's been careless with the ball.

Having said that, this team is 3rd in the nation in turnover %. All of those numbers above (including Reed) is still pretty damn good.

Reed has a higher turnover rate in part because he shoots much less.

 

[blackcat714]

Tend to attribute this to, "nothing is working let's start throwing stuff at the wall and see what sticks"

My aunt used to have a monkey that did that nasty little booger

 

[RunninRichie]

Thank you. Everyone here is terrified of saying what everyone knows - that Wagner shouldn't be starting.

Some of us said it a month ago. Got told it doesn’t matter who starts lol.

 

[Bluegrass79]

Cal has done this before with lineups. He was confident he could fuk around with stuff and still beat South Carolina. He was wrong.

 

[Mike-McD]

Depends on the game, he did have 10 assists against Georgia. And is tied w/Rob in assists per. Rob has had some atrocious turnovers some games. Reed too.

So you won't take a stand and state your own opinion. Got it.

 

[BigBlueManSouthCentralKY]

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Not only does he not know how to coach, he doesn’t even know how to manage a roster or substitute correctly lol

Does not start the best players, subs regardless of how a guy is playing, does not demand defensive intensity, is not flexible, does not practice in bounds defense and wastes having three seven footers by letting them play the way they want. Just a lot, probably more. Like always being too young.