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Lunardi: UK the last three seed, need Arizona to lose

At 3:39 PM ET they interviewed the committee chair and he said all but 4 at large teams have been put in the field and he expects the final 4 to be put in before dinner. He also said the top 9 seed lines have already been set. Which means Kentucky is set already as their seed.
Now of course he said there is final scrubbing coming later today and tomorrow so they could get moved up or down still.
Also contingency brackets will be made for those final 4 at large for bid stealers.

Also was noted the number of times in a conf played this year affect when they can play in the tournament
once - round 32
twice - S16
three - E8

So Kentucky if a 3 seed and Bama if a 2 seed won't be in same region since they would meet in S16.

That tells me Florida is the last 1 seed no matter what happens today and tomorrow.
 
Hard to move the needle at this point of the season. Remember, the SC is suppose to look at the entire season equally.

Teams aren’t jumping us just because we lost a Quad 1A game to end the season.
 
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If St John's is 8 o
My NCAA Tournament Top 16 Projections:

South

1 Auburn(1)
2 Michigan St.(7)
3 Texas Tech(10)
4 Purdue(16)

East

1 Duke(2)
2 Tennessee(6)
3 Iowa St.(12)
4 Maryland(14)

Midwest

1 Houston(3)
2 Alabama(5)
3 Wisconsin(11)
4 Texas A&M(15)

West

1 Florida(4)
2 St. John’s(8)
3 Kentucky(9)
4 Arizona(13)
If we were #9 overall I would guess Kentucky would been 3 seed in the South as that be Kentucky's preference over West.
 
That tells me Florida is the last 1 seed no matter what happens today and tomorrow.
They will scrub tonight and tomorrow morning so that can switch around based on today

The big question is if Florida loses to Tennessee tomorrow that is where you might see Florida just locked into the 1 even though a simple swap of SEC teams might be viable to move Tenn to the 1 line but with all the SEC teams in place that might not be an easy switch.

As we seen with Kentucky Sunday never matters so Florida is likely looked in as of today with win over Bama
 
If St John's is 8 o

If we were #9 overall I would guess Kentucky would been 3 seed in the South as that be Kentucky's preference over West.
Not if S-curve is taken into consideration. Since the 4th overall got the 8th overall, then the 8th overall gets the 9th overall.

Normally, the 4th overall would get the fifth overall, but since the fifth is a SEC team and the sixth is also, then it drops to the 7th, but at that point they likely consider geography and will send the 7th (MSU) to the South (closer for them) and ship the last 2 seed (St. John’s) out West.

Also, I think Auburn, having won the regular season and being the overall number one, won’t likely get another top 4 seed from the SEC in their region.

Also, I don’t think they will send us to Atlanta or Indy. Too close for us. They don’t want us to have an advantage. If you are a 2 seed Michigan St., do you think it’s fair to have your 3 seed being Kentucky and have to play them in Catlanta?

Those will be little things they will consider as they tweak the brackets.
 
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I'm only big on Ament because I think Pope needs the "can he recruit guys from outside the state" monkey off his back, but I also see the Rick Pitino rationale of recruiting only portal players.

Ament will cost UK a pretty penny. Some are saying as much as $2 million. There's probably 2 to 3 high level portal guys we can have for that price.
I don’t think I would pay any freshman $2 million or more to come in and be a one and done player. He’d want to be the stud player and then be gone. Except maybe Duke with Flagg, the really good teams I’ve seen are veteran teams with very good guard play. I think getting players from the portal is working well.
 
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I'd say the bracket is just about as set as it always has been by this point.

UK a 3 seed. Will get Michigan State as a (2) Florida (1) out west. BYU or UCLA as the 6. First game = Robert Morris. Maybe a play in game with IU and UNC*** to meet the 6 seed. would be my guesstimate. Personally, I'd love to see Texas tech as our 2 out west, but that won't happen. The S.C. is going to make it nefarious for us.

get ready

it's coming
 
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Gee, why would a team with no other choice say that? smh
Well it does look like the new guy has done a pretty damn good job. I also think he has landed the top high school recruit for next year. In any event, I would still like to see Pope coach against him. Wasn’t he an NBA coach before going to BYU?
Gee, why would a team with no other choice say that? smh
 
-Iowa St the only team with a Q3 loss in top 20 of the net. Clemson has one if you expand that to 25
Iowa St 2 less Q1 wins than UK


-Wisconsin feasted on Q2 opponents but only played 14 Q1 teams and went 7-7. Played 6 Q4 teams- same as UK.


-TAMU also feasted on Q2 teams, playing 10 of them. They went 7-9 against Q1..... and lost to UK by 12


-Texas Tech I could see being being seeded higher than UK. Had an 8-2 road record. Won @Houston, @BYU, @KU. They did have a rather pedestrian non-conference though.


We will know soon enough. There isnt much justification to seed all 4 of those teams ahead of UK outside of bias.
 
This guy still has Kentucky as a 4 seed and not even close to being a 3 seed coming into the day


(1) Auburn*, Duke*, Houston*, Florida
(2) Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State*, Texas Tech
(3) St. John’s*, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Arizona
(4) Maryland, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Michigan
 
My updates. TIFWIW.

1 seeds are locked, IMHO:

Auburn(South), Duke(East), Houston(Midwest), and Florida(West).

2 seeds are pretty much wrapped up:

Tennessee(Midwest), Alabama(East), Michigan St.(South), and St. John’s(West).

They won’t send Tennessee and Auburn to South or West. I think Tennessee winning today puts them just barely ahead of Alabama and they will send them to Indy (closer than Newark). Bama goes East. Michigan St. gets geographical preference over St. John’s. I have MSU ahead of the Johnnies despite today’s outcomes. MSU has some impressive wins recently.

The 3 seeds should be:

Kentucky(West), Wisconsin(Midwest), Texas Tech(South), and Iowa St.(East).

I am not sure about the order for those, except I think Iowa St. is the last 3 seed.

I believe the SC will put UK with St. John’s because that’s a marquee Sweet Sixteen matchup with Pitino vs. Pope. Also, they won’t put UK with Auburn. They won’t put another top 4 seed from the SEC with Auburn. So, I think the logical landing spot would be West. We pretty much can’t go East or Midwest because of UT and Bama.

Iowa St. might drop to a 4 seed, but I think they hold on to the 3 seed.

Finally, the 4 seeds:

Texas A&M(Midwest), Arizona(West), Maryland(East), and Michigan(South).

Thinking matchups and geography, the potential for A&M vs. Houston in the Sweet Sixteen has to be given consideration. Arizona makes sense to stay out West. Maryland makes sense to the East geographically and a potential Devils and Terps matchup in the Sweet Sixteen is good for ratings, as they renew their rivalry.

That’s my take on the top four seeds in each region.

But the SC might do things a bit differently.

Wouldn’t be surprised if they switch UK and A&M or something like that. Or keep A&M on the 3 line, with Iowa St. moving to a 4. But I think to keep some space between the top part of the SEC, they might move UK down to the 4. That may actually benefit UK, since that would likely put UK in the Indy bracket. But I think ratings drive a lot of this and that a potential Pope vs. Pitino matchup will be hard to pass up. Also, A&M/Houston is another marquee matchup with them both being from the Lonestar State.

Another thing, which I mentioned in a previous comment, I just don’t see them giving UK a chance at Indy or Atlanta. They know the disadvantage that would put on the higher seed in those regions. Wouldn’t be fair for the 2 seed in the South (MSU or St. John’s) to have to play against 3 seed UK in Catlanta or for 1 seed Houston to have to essentially play a road game against 4 seed UK in Indy.

Absolute worst case scenario, IMHO, is they make us the 4 seed in the East. That’s a rematch with Duke in the Sweet Sixteen. I can see the SC doing that for ratings.

Going to be interesting to see just how this plays out.
 
Last edited:
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My updates. TIFWIW.

1 seeds are locked, IMHO:

Auburn(South), Duke(East), Houston(Midwest), and Florida(West).

2 seeds are pretty much wrapped up:

Tennessee(Midwest), Alabama(East), Michigan St.(South), and St. John’s(West).

They won’t send Tennessee and Auburn to South or West. I think Tennessee winning today puts them just barely ahead of Alabama and they will send them to Indy (closer than Newark). Bama goes East. Michigan St. gets geographical preference over St. John’s. I have MSU ahead of the Johnnies despite today’s outcomes. MSU has some impressive wins recently.

The 3 seeds should be:

Kentucky(West), Wisconsin(Midwest), Texas Tech(South), and Iowa St.(East).

I am not sure about the order for those, except I think Iowa St. is the last 3 seed.

I believe the SC will put UK with St. John’s because that’s a marquee Sweet Sixteen matchup with Pitino vs. Pope. Also, they won’t put UK with Auburn. They won’t put another top 4 seed from the SEC with Auburn. So, I think the logical landing spot would be West. We pretty much can’t go East or Midwest because of UT and Bama.

Iowa St. might drop to a 4 seed, but I think they hold on to the 3 seed.

Finally, the 4 seeds:

Texas A&M(Midwest), Arizona(West), Maryland(East), and Michigan(South).

Thinking matchups and geography, the potential for A&M vs. Houston in the Sweet Sixteen has to be given consideration. Arizona makes sense to stay out West. Maryland makes sense to the East geographically and a potential Devils and Terps matchup in the Sweet Sixteen is good for ratings, as they renew their rivalry.

That’s my take on the top four seeds in each region.

But the SC might do things a bit differently.

Wouldn’t be surprised if they switch UK and A&M or something like that. Or keep A&M on the 3 line, with Iowa St. moving to a 4. But I think to keep some space between the top part of the SEC, they might move UK down to the 4. That may actually benefit UK, since that would likely put UK in the Indy bracket. But I think ratings drive a lot of this and that a potential Pope vs. Pitino matchup will be hard to pass up. Also, A&M/Houston is another marquee matchup with them both being from the Lonestar State.

Going to be interesting to see just how this plays out.
I think ultimately they will make Iowa state the 4 and give the nod to A&M for that last 3 spot
 
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