Some Louisville stats that stand out as the big game draws near:
Points per game: 86.1 (No. 10 in NCAA)
% of points from 2's, 3's, FT's: 58.7 (No. 18), 23.8 (No. 295), 17.5 (No. 288)
Team FG %: 51.6 (No. 6)
2pt %, 3pt %, FT %: 57.5 (No. 12), 38.1 (No. 59), 68.0 (No. 203)
Offensive Conclusions: Louisville is good from three-point range and will test the Cats' perimeter defense, but they don't shoot many threes. It could be that they're good about waiting for the right look. They don't shoot many free throws. In terms of their scoring distribution (2's, 3's, FT's), they're actually quite similar to Kentucky in that the great majority of their points come on two-point baskets and near the rim disproportionately. To this point in the season it's one of Pitino's better offensive teams although they haven't faced many defenses that would balance out the bad teams they have played. Against Michigan State they scored 67 points, which on the road against the Spartans isn't bad but wasn't quite enough.
Offensive rebounds per game / OR %: 13.6 (No. 7 in NCAA), 42.7 (No. 4)
Total rebounds per game: 43.1 (No. 11)
Opponent OR per game / Opponent OR %: 8.3 (No. 96), 23.2 (No. 41)
Rebounding Conclusions: While Louisville does give up a fair amount of offensive rebounds the statistic is skewed because Louisville's opponents also miss a lot of shots. There's a significant discrepancy between their offensive rebounds allowed (they're just "okay" there) and their opponent's offensive rebound percentage (they're pretty darn good there). Actually, they're about 100 spots better than Kentucky in the national rankings in terms of preventing offensive rebounds, although schedule could have something to say about that. Louisville will clearly test Kentucky's ability to clean up the glass when the Cats are on the defensive end.
Opponent FG %: 35.2 (No. 2 in NCAA)
Opponent 2 pt %, 3 pt %: 38.8 (No. 5), 29.0 (No. 21)
Opponent Assists/Turnovers per game: 9.6 (No. 9), 15.7 (No. 31)
Blocks/Steals per game: 5.8 (No. 25), 8.4 (No. 17)
Conclusions: Rick Pitino's a good defensive coach and they've obviously been able to pad their stats against some outmatched opponents. Blocks, steals, shooting percentage; those categories are usually glaring disadvantages for teams with a talent deficit, so you'd expect Louisville's stats to be a little inflated there, even more so than some other teams. I do think that Louisville's field goal percentage defense particularly around the rim is a little concerning for a Kentucky team that struggled so mightily to finish inside the arc against Ohio State, although finishing in that area has been a strength for much of the year. Depending on who Louisville is missing that could determine a lot so far as Marcus Lee and Alex Poythress' production, because those guys get garbage baskets but they're obviously limited when facing good shot blockers and post defenders.
Miscellaneous
Louisville's opponents steal the ball from them on 8.1% of their possessions, which means the Cards are decidedly not good in that category. That should present an opportunity for Kentucky's guards to create some turnovers going the other way.
In spite of their style of play Louisville has only been called for 18.8 fouls per game, compared to Kentucky's 19.3 per game.
Points per game: 86.1 (No. 10 in NCAA)
% of points from 2's, 3's, FT's: 58.7 (No. 18), 23.8 (No. 295), 17.5 (No. 288)
Team FG %: 51.6 (No. 6)
2pt %, 3pt %, FT %: 57.5 (No. 12), 38.1 (No. 59), 68.0 (No. 203)
Offensive Conclusions: Louisville is good from three-point range and will test the Cats' perimeter defense, but they don't shoot many threes. It could be that they're good about waiting for the right look. They don't shoot many free throws. In terms of their scoring distribution (2's, 3's, FT's), they're actually quite similar to Kentucky in that the great majority of their points come on two-point baskets and near the rim disproportionately. To this point in the season it's one of Pitino's better offensive teams although they haven't faced many defenses that would balance out the bad teams they have played. Against Michigan State they scored 67 points, which on the road against the Spartans isn't bad but wasn't quite enough.
Offensive rebounds per game / OR %: 13.6 (No. 7 in NCAA), 42.7 (No. 4)
Total rebounds per game: 43.1 (No. 11)
Opponent OR per game / Opponent OR %: 8.3 (No. 96), 23.2 (No. 41)
Rebounding Conclusions: While Louisville does give up a fair amount of offensive rebounds the statistic is skewed because Louisville's opponents also miss a lot of shots. There's a significant discrepancy between their offensive rebounds allowed (they're just "okay" there) and their opponent's offensive rebound percentage (they're pretty darn good there). Actually, they're about 100 spots better than Kentucky in the national rankings in terms of preventing offensive rebounds, although schedule could have something to say about that. Louisville will clearly test Kentucky's ability to clean up the glass when the Cats are on the defensive end.
Opponent FG %: 35.2 (No. 2 in NCAA)
Opponent 2 pt %, 3 pt %: 38.8 (No. 5), 29.0 (No. 21)
Opponent Assists/Turnovers per game: 9.6 (No. 9), 15.7 (No. 31)
Blocks/Steals per game: 5.8 (No. 25), 8.4 (No. 17)
Conclusions: Rick Pitino's a good defensive coach and they've obviously been able to pad their stats against some outmatched opponents. Blocks, steals, shooting percentage; those categories are usually glaring disadvantages for teams with a talent deficit, so you'd expect Louisville's stats to be a little inflated there, even more so than some other teams. I do think that Louisville's field goal percentage defense particularly around the rim is a little concerning for a Kentucky team that struggled so mightily to finish inside the arc against Ohio State, although finishing in that area has been a strength for much of the year. Depending on who Louisville is missing that could determine a lot so far as Marcus Lee and Alex Poythress' production, because those guys get garbage baskets but they're obviously limited when facing good shot blockers and post defenders.
Miscellaneous
Louisville's opponents steal the ball from them on 8.1% of their possessions, which means the Cards are decidedly not good in that category. That should present an opportunity for Kentucky's guards to create some turnovers going the other way.
In spite of their style of play Louisville has only been called for 18.8 fouls per game, compared to Kentucky's 19.3 per game.
