Kentucky v. Louisville (Stat Comp)

[WildCard]

You have forgotten more about college baseball than I ever knew. IDK how valid their criteria is but, per this source, over the past 4 years (2016-2019), UofL recruiting has been average ranked at #17.5; UK at #18.5. For 2020 they rank UofL #12 and UK #14 but UK does have 2 more recruits than UofL. I don't follow this stuff at all but that would suggest very similar overall "talent" meaning the bulk of the performance difference is "coaching".

Cats definitely played a stronger schedule last year but, FWIW, I always find SOS to be a tricky thing to "quantify". Consider UofL football last year; #15 SOS per Sagarin. At some point it is not about "how good are your opponents" but "how bad are you".

Peace

EDIT to above
A subsequent post reminded me the 2019 class is not here yet. Therefore a 4 year average would be 2015-2018. UofL averages out 14.25; UK 18.25. A bit more separation but hardly big difference. So the next incoming group is the 2019 class. The Cards are #21 with 15 recruits; the Cats #31 with 14.

FWIW, for 2019, the top 6 classes are Vandy, LSU, FL, MS, aTm and MSU - more SEC dominance than in football. Those 6 schools signed 35 of that site's Top 100 prospects. UofL got 3, UK 1.

 

[Comebakatz3]

EDIT to above
A subsequent post reminded me the 2019 class is not here yet. Therefore a 4 year average would be 2015-2018. UofL averages out 14.25; UK 18.25. A bit more separation but hardly big difference. So the next incoming group is the 2019 class. The Cards are #21 with 15 recruits; the Cats #31 with 14.

FWIW, for 2019, the top 6 classes are Vandy, LSU, FL, MS, aTm and MSU - more SEC dominance than in football. Those 6 schools signed 35 of that site's Top 100 prospects. UofL got 3, UK 1.

The 2019 may change by the end of next month. UL may lose at least one of those recruits while UK should keep all of theirs. I don't know how much, if any, that will move the needle, but there might be some changes.

PG is a bit weird as well. They group the JUCO signees in with their freshman class. For instance, UK will get a kid named Oraj Anu in 2020 from a JUCO. He is listed as a 2017 recruit because that is when he graduated high school. However, I don't think signing him has any effect on our recruiting rankings for 2019 or 2017. So, PG Is the best source we have, but even it has some big flaws I think.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

It’s hard setting here watching Louisville play in its 5th trip to Omaha knowing UK isn’t close to getting there.

 

[cats1068]

I don't think it is unreasonable for UK to recruit with Louisville. UL has some top 10-15 classes, as has UK, but they regularly also drop into the 25-35 range, as does UK. I wouldn't consider UL to be elite at recruiting. I think they just get more out of their players and do a better job with developing pitchers than UK.

I think the big deal is that Louisville was a bottom feeder program up until 2007 when McDonnell came there. They had only made the NCAA tournament 1 time.... ever. Then they made the CWS and have made it 4 more times since. In the meantime, UK improved their program and began taking baseball more seriously, but have still been unable to get over the CWS hump and have only made the NCAA tournament a handful of times during that same time span. So, with UL making those strides, we should be able to at least do something similar. Maybe not quite as good, but there is little excuse for us wallowing in mediocrity while we watch our rival consistently be a top 5-10 program.

The reason the Fraudinals are good is because they recruit to their philosophy. Speed, defense and high velocity arms. And they don’t deviate from that either. I think the lack of big bombers hurt the Fraudinals when they get to Omaha. I can’t stand those guys but I tip my hat to them because they have a philosophy and they stick to it no matter what.

 

[sluggercatfan]

It’s hard setting here watching Louisville play in its 5th trip to Omaha knowing UK isn’t close to getting there.

Anytime soon!!

 

[metrodayze]

I don't disagree with you in that regard, but the fact that they have been to the CWS so often proves, to me, that their success isn't just a product of weak competition.

You’re gonna have to look at the ACC as almost even with the SEC.
YOURE also gonna have to pray Dan McDonnell leaves.
He owns the recruiting area of the Midwest and so many College World Series in 10 years that UK will never achieve as well as the best record in college baseball. It is what it is.

 

[Pickle_Rick]

I'm sure Barney has the pulse of the baseball team under his thumb. What's confusing is he usually LOVES the non-revenue sports. Notice the successful coaches we have are self-driven. If I could get (insert Ming's salary here) for coaching losing baseball, I'd take it and run to the bank. Why exert yourself? You suck, and the AD just wants a scandal free team.

 

[Comebakatz3]

You’re gonna have to look at the ACC as almost even with the SEC.
YOURE also gonna have to pray Dan McDonnell leaves.
He owns the recruiting area of the Midwest and so many College World Series in 10 years that UK will never achieve as well as the best record in college baseball. It is what it is.

Yea, I don't think the ACC is 'almost even,' with the SEC. In terms of RPI, the SEC is almost always first and the ACC wasn't even second this year. So, they definitely aren't, "almost even." 6 SEC teams had over 20 Q1 wins this year. UL was the lone ACC school to reach that feat. 5 ACC schools had RPIs outside of the top 50 while the SEC had just 2, and had none outside of the top 100. The ACC is certainly a good conference and they have a good chunk of competitive teams, but let's not pretend that they are almost even.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Yea, I don't think the ACC is 'almost even,' with the SEC. In terms of RPI, the SEC is almost always first and the ACC wasn't even second this year. So, they definitely aren't, "almost even." 6 SEC teams had over 20 Q1 wins this year. UL was the lone ACC school to reach that feat. 5 ACC schools had RPIs outside of the top 50 while the SEC had just 2, and had none outside of the top 100. The ACC is certainly a good conference and they have a good chunk of competitive teams, but let's not pretend that they are almost even.

Top teams in the AllCheatersConference are really good usually , but outside of the T4/5 teams the rest of the teams are pretty mediocre. SEC has 10 teams every year that can play with anybody.

 

[jmmcgr02]

The ACC is good enough of a conference to get their teams prepared for the tournaments. the ACC is not on par with the SEC, but they don't need it to be. As good of a year as Louisville had this year, they are absolutely loaded next year. Top 3 starters are back. Aaron Fitt from Perfect Game just said the freshman pitchers this year that didn't get much mound time, are the best class of freshman pitchers in College baseball.
DH, C, 2b, 3rd, LF, CF and possibly RF returning. They lost their 1B, SS and closer. Solid chance to start the year #1 in the polls.

 

[sluggercatfan]

The ACC is good enough of a conference to get their teams prepared for the tournaments. the ACC is not on par with the SEC, but they don't need it to be. As good of a year as Louisville had this year, they are absolutely loaded next year. Top 3 starters are back. Aaron Fitt from Perfect Game just said the freshman pitchers this year that didn't get much mound time, are the best class of freshman pitchers in College baseball.
DH, C, 2b, 3rd, LF, CF and possibly RF returning. They lost their 1B, SS and closer. Solid chance to start the year #1 in the polls.

Was told by someone close to Campbell, the centerfielder, over the weekend that he has no intentions of returning and dosen't like Macdonald. Forget where he was drafted.

 

[jmmcgr02]

Was told by someone close to Campbell, the centerfielder, over the weekend that he has no intentions of returning and dosen't like Macdonald. Forget where he was drafted.

Odd, bc he doesn't play centerfield.
If they pay him like rd 15 pick, which is more the level he is playing at now, then he has to take the $$. Has nothing to do with Coach Mac. It rarely makes financial sense for a Junior to come back for his 4th year, and lose all bargaining power in the next draft. Snider may go as well. I don't think his stock will increase, he is what he is. Oriente will likely move from DH to LF, with Leonard in RF, Britton at DH.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Odd, bc he doesn't play centerfield.

To be fair, he started the season as the starting centerfielder. Seems like Dunn took over that role in early April and Campbell moved to right. Stringer was starting in right and Dunn was coming off the bench.

 

[sluggercatfan]

To be fair, he started the season as the starting centerfielder. Seems like Dunn took over that role in early April and Campbell moved to right. Stringer was starting in right and Dunn was coming off the bench.

Don't follow u6 enough to know he switched positions. Knew he was playing cf when we went to u6 game in April. Don't give a damn what position he plays it dosen't take away from what i was told.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Odd, bc he doesn't play centerfield.
If they pay him like rd 15 pick, which is more the level he is playing at now, then he has to take the $$. Has nothing to do with Coach Mac. It rarely makes financial sense for a Junior to come back for his 4th year, and lose all bargaining power in the next draft. Snider may go as well. I don't think his stock will increase, he is what he is. Oriente will likely move from DH to LF, with Leonard in RF, Britton at DH.

"Nothing to do with Coach Mac" just telling you what i was told by someone who probably is a hell of a lot closer to the situation than you unless you are his daddy.

 

[jmmcgr02]

To be fair, he started the season as the starting centerfielder. Seems like Dunn took over that role in early April and Campbell moved to right. Stringer was starting in right and Dunn was coming off the bench.

Dunn was not coming off the bench, he was starting at 2b. When Binelas started hitting, they moved Lavey to 2nd to make room for Binelas at 3rd, and a week or so later Dunn took over in center. Drew didn't like it, but Dunn was a better cf, and has a much higher ceiling. Not playing cf was an issue, not Dan.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Dunn was not coming off the bench, he was starting at 2b. When Binelas started hitting, they moved Lavey to 2nd to make room for Binelas at 3rd, and a week or so later Dunn took over in center. Drew didn't like it, but Dunn was a better cf, and has a much higher ceiling. Not playing cf was an issue, not Dan.

You're right. Dunn started the year at second. However, there was about a month where Dunn came off the bench, and as you said, Lavey was at second instead. The initial change seemed to happen in the second ACC game, against BC, and they didn't really move Dunn into CF until the third Clemson game. During that month long stretch of about 18 games, or about a quarter of your season, Dunn didn't start. I'd hardly call that a week though.

Regardless, it is still also technically correct to say that Campbell was also a CF on your team. Also interesting that you're now changing your tune about the reason he is unhappy. At first, you acted like he wasn't unhappy at all and that it was entirely a financial decision (and it may be). Now you're seemingly admitting that he was at least a bit disgruntled by the fact that he was not longer starting in the middle. Which, by the way, would be a coaching decision, so at the very least the kid might have a problem with Dan's decision making regarding his position. Not to mention that he may have been told/promised some things, such as being the CF, and he might feel slighted that Dan moved him away from there despite the promise.

Of course, all of that is pure speculation and in reality I don't care a whole lot.

 

[ulcards1]

You're right. Dunn started the year at second. However, there was about a month where Dunn came off the bench, and as you said, Lavey was at second instead. The initial change seemed to happen in the second ACC game, against BC, and they didn't really move Dunn into CF until the third Clemson game. During that month long stretch of about 18 games, or about a quarter of your season, Dunn didn't start. I'd hardly call that a week though.

Regardless, it is still also technically correct to say that Campbell was also a CF on your team. Also interesting that you're now changing your tune about the reason he is unhappy. At first, you acted like he wasn't unhappy at all and that it was entirely a financial decision (and it may be). Now you're seemingly admitting that he was at least a bit disgruntled by the fact that he was not longer starting in the middle. Which, by the way, would be a coaching decision, so at the very least the kid might have a problem with Dan's decision making regarding his position. Not to mention that he may have been told/promised some things, such as being the CF, and he might feel slighted that Dan moved him away from there despite the promise.

Of course, all of that is pure speculation and in reality I don't care a whole lot.

Dunn wasn't coming off the bench, he was hurt and out for several weeks. And the fact that you took the time to type 2 full paragraphs on the subject kind of gives the lie to the notion that you "don't care a whole lot."

 

[Comebakatz3]

Dunn wasn't coming off the bench, he was hurt and out for several weeks. And the fact that you took the time to type 2 full paragraphs on the subject kind of gives the lie to the notion that you "don't care a whole lot."

There were several games he came off the bench. May not have been the entire 18/19 games, but there were several. Regardless, this is just semantics and really has nothing to do with the actual topic.

I can discuss something and not care about it. I have no emotional ties to anything regarding UL baseball. Campbell's decision and the reasons for it really don't matter to me at all, and but for Slugger bringing it up, I wouldn't even have known that he was making a decision or who he is.

 

[sluggercatfan]

You're right. Dunn started the year at second. However, there was about a month where Dunn came off the bench, and as you said, Lavey was at second instead. The initial change seemed to happen in the second ACC game, against BC, and they didn't really move Dunn into CF until the third Clemson game. During that month long stretch of about 18 games, or about a quarter of your season, Dunn didn't start. I'd hardly call that a week though.

Regardless, it is still also technically correct to say that Campbell was also a CF on your team. Also interesting that you're now changing your tune about the reason he is unhappy. At first, you acted like he wasn't unhappy at all and that it was entirely a financial decision (and it may be). Now you're seemingly admitting that he was at least a bit disgruntled by the fact that he was not longer starting in the middle. Which, by the way, would be a coaching decision, sCB3o at the very least the kid might have a problem with Dan's decision making regarding his position. Not to mention that he may have been told/promised some things, such as being the CF, and he might feel slighted that Dan moved him away from there despite the promise.

Of course, all of that is pure speculation and in reality I don't care a whole lot.

CB3...was just stating what I was told last weekend by someone close to Campbell and the situation. If he dosen't believe/like it that's his problem. Like I said, I don't pay much attention to them and when I was at the UK-u6 game in early April he played CF.

 

[ulcards1]

CB3...was just stating what I was told last weekend by someone close to Campbell and the situation. If he dosen't believe/like it that's his problem. Like I said, I don't pay much attention to them and when I was at the UK-u6 game in early April he played CF.

You all don't pay much attention to us and don't care about us yet this whole thread was about a statistical comparison of the 2 teams and you have multiple posts. You all are college baseball fans and your arch rival is having tons of success and you're not, of course you're paying attention.

 

[sluggercatfan]

You all don't pay much attention to us and don't care about us yet this whole thread was about a statistical comparison of the 2 teams and you have multiple posts. You all are college baseball fans and your arch rival is having tons of success and you're not, of course you're paying attention.

DC is the only guy on your ream I could name and that is only because of the individual who is telling me all about him EVERY time we talk. Yes, I follow CB, but if you are insinuating I watch u6 play a lot you would be totally wrong. I do watch a lot of SEC games.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

Frankly, I take a don’t feed the trolls stance but the whole purpose of this thread was to figure out how and why UofL became the better program. The argument could be made that before McDonnell showed up, UK had the better program. Which isn’t saying much. But moving on, yes I do care what Louisville does in baseball because it’s my favorite sport and based on nothing else but geographics, UK should not be this far behind to Louisville. It’s clear that Dan McDonnell is one of the top coaches in baseball. As for who has the better overall athletic department. It’s Kentucky. Kentucky finished 20th in the Capital One Cup standings this year. Louisville was 65th. If anyone cares, Virginia actually was #1. Which was a little shocking to me.

 

[Comebakatz3]

You all don't pay much attention to us and don't care about us yet this whole thread was about a statistical comparison of the 2 teams and you have multiple posts. You all are college baseball fans and your arch rival is having tons of success and you're not, of course you're paying attention.

You really need your ego stroked, huh?

 

[sluggercatfan]

Frankly, I take a don’t feed the trolls stance but the whole purpose of this thread was to figure out how and why UofL became the better program. The argument could be made that before McDonnell showed up, UK had the better program. Which isn’t saying much. But moving on, yes I do care what Louisville does in baseball because it’s my favorite sport and based on nothing else but geographics, UK should not be this far behind to Louisville. It’s clear that Dan McDonnell is one of the top coaches in baseball. As for who has the better overall athletic department. It’s Kentucky. Kentucky finished 20th in the Capital One Cup standings this year. Louisville was 65th. If anyone cares, Virginia actually was #1. Which was a little shocking to me.

Jurich was a scumbag jerk , but he damn sure was good/lucky hiring coaches. Thought NM was going to be great after the first year and with the new stadium you couldn't help but be excited , but the last two years have taken us to a place I personally think is worse than Henderson.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Frankly, I take a don’t feed the trolls stance but the whole purpose of this thread was to figure out how and why UofL became the better program. The argument could be made that before McDonnell showed up, UK had the better program. Which isn’t saying much. But moving on, yes I do care what Louisville does in baseball because it’s my favorite sport and based on nothing else but geographics, UK should not be this far behind to Louisville. It’s clear that Dan McDonnell is one of the top coaches in baseball. As for who has the better overall athletic department. It’s Kentucky. Kentucky finished 20th in the Capital One Cup standings this year. Louisville was 65th. If anyone cares, Virginia actually was #1. Which was a little shocking to me.

Just to add my two cents...

I personally care about UK and I want UK to be successful. Everything else is secondary to that. Personally, I don't care what UL does in baseball. I want to be better than them and every other team. However, I understand that UL is successful and has been under McDonnell and they can be a good barometer of the success that UK is capable of having if they get the right man for the job.

This statistical comp was to show where UK was lacking and how UL was having such success. It was my hypothesis going into the stat comp that it was because UL consistently had very good pitching. The stats proved that hypothesis with UL having a team ERA outside of the top 40 in just 1 year while UK was in the top 40 in just 1 year. This is especially egregious for UK given that their previous head coach was known as a 'pitching guru,' and it also supported my belief that Roger Williams plays a big factor into the success of UL and that he should be the first guy UK calls if the Mingione era flops.

 

[sluggercatfan]

Everything CB3 said...