I suspect we'll see a lot of simulated blitzes. Just bringing 4, but you never know from where.
Kentucky Opens 3.5 Point Favorite vs Florida
- Thread starter YaketySax
- Start date
Plus that Florida win was in the Swamp - not in Knoxville as some people have said. The Swamp is a place where you have to play really well to win - strange calls seem to occur when in Gainesville - at least in the past!
Go Big Blue!
Huge game this weekend
If the Cats win and win big, it could set a great motivator for the rest of the season
If the Cats lose, some will come out of the woodwork with the “see, I told you” look
If the Cats win and win big, it could set a great motivator for the rest of the season
If the Cats lose, some will come out of the woodwork with the “see, I told you” look
Vegas also knows this is opening betting weekend in KY, and let’s be honest, who likes to bet against their team.
USC and UL are both tossups in my book. Rattler is probably the most dangerous QB in the country not named Michael Penix and Caleb Williams, and UL, while not playing a very good schedule, has been lights out on offense. If we are playing at our peak those are both wins, but not gimmes.
Mertz is completing north of 75% of his passes, they like to dink and dunk. Can't give them 5-6 yard cushions this go around.
Florida's offense also has a dangerous running game. I don't think anyone on Kentucky's defense could catch Etienne from behind if he breaks out into an open field. Florida settles for too many field goals in the Red Zone. Hopefully UK trades TDs with their FGs and the good guys win comfortably.
The game will be won if the Kentucky D line prevents the Gators from getting chunks of rushing. Period.
I'm confident the UK O can figure their D out enough to score in the 20's. And our secondary can handle their passing game which is far less talented or athletic than Vandy's.
Our run D vs their run O. That's the game. And I think these big Wildcats are gonna hold their own!!
I'm confident the UK O can figure their D out enough to score in the 20's. And our secondary can handle their passing game which is far less talented or athletic than Vandy's.
Our run D vs their run O. That's the game. And I think these big Wildcats are gonna hold their own!!
Redzone efficiency. Florida scores 89% of the time in the red zone, 11 TD and 6 FG
for comparison Kentucky scores 75% of the time, putting up 8 TDs to 1 FG.
The takeaway here for me is against our defense, letting them go down the field may not be the worst thing that can happen as I see them kicking FG more than scoring TD against our defense which is better than any they have faced this year. They live on the short passing game and running the ball, both of those things become much more difficult in the redzone. I don't expect UK to have the same level of redzone success against Florida as they did the previous 3 opponents but I think they should go 50/50 TD/FG. That could be the difference in this game.
for comparison Kentucky scores 75% of the time, putting up 8 TDs to 1 FG.
The takeaway here for me is against our defense, letting them go down the field may not be the worst thing that can happen as I see them kicking FG more than scoring TD against our defense which is better than any they have faced this year. They live on the short passing game and running the ball, both of those things become much more difficult in the redzone. I don't expect UK to have the same level of redzone success against Florida as they did the previous 3 opponents but I think they should go 50/50 TD/FG. That could be the difference in this game.
Only thing I’d add is that looking at red zone efficiency for UK undersells our offense a bit.
We have 15 offensive TDs this year, which means that 7 of our TDs have come on big plays from outside the red zone. That’s almost half of our TDs coming from chunk plays.
I agree with you though that letting Florida get into the red zone may not be the end of the world. As long as our offense executes, it’s probably fine to let them dink and dunk their way down the field and then stiffening up in the red zone to force a FG.
We need our WRs to make some catches. We can scoot around dropping balls against Vandy, but Florida will make us pay if we don't move the ball and score against them.
I might pull a muscle patting myself on the back here. I put another bet on the game and wound up winning $500 on the Cats Saturday.
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