Kentucky Opens 3.5 Point Favorite vs Florida
- Thread starter YaketySax
- Start date
I was guessing we'd be dogs by about that amount.
And this is where it all gets confusing to those who don’t closely follow sports.
One projection aired by the SEC Network showed us “likely” to win only one more game: Mizzou.
Vegas sets lines (then adjusts them) to bring money in as close as possible to 50/50, meaning that with enough fanship prejudice, “the line” could be markedly off base.
But those who closely follow sports realize that human polls and percentile projections are heavily biased in most instances. Frankly, the “market approach” used by Vegas is typically pretty-damn-near accurate (as are market-based systems, generally).
Frankly, I would take Kentucky.
One projection aired by the SEC Network showed us “likely” to win only one more game: Mizzou.
Vegas sets lines (then adjusts them) to bring money in as close as possible to 50/50, meaning that with enough fanship prejudice, “the line” could be markedly off base.
But those who closely follow sports realize that human polls and percentile projections are heavily biased in most instances. Frankly, the “market approach” used by Vegas is typically pretty-damn-near accurate (as are market-based systems, generally).
Frankly, I would take Kentucky.
It’s a win-win to put money on Florida to win. If enough people bet Florida’s moneyline, maybe the ‘books can pressure the folks in Birmingham to get the SEC zebras to do UK’s bidding. Florida is horrible anyways, they shouldn’t get the league office’s protection like the big dogs always get.
Napier has been protecting his QB with a short passing game. If he goes out their season is totally over. So, what would you do knowing their offense is short passes and running the ball?
Plays right into UK’s hands. Zone coverage and great run defense. Florida will have to manage 15 play drives without mistake to score points.
I think UF might be a much weaker road team than their home victories would project.
If we can pump a Noon home crowd up close to where it was two years, ago, I think we might see lots of false starts (might be tough to get 8 of them, though.).
If we can pump a Noon home crowd up close to where it was two years, ago, I think we might see lots of false starts (might be tough to get 8 of them, though.).
Tell my huge line to bat down short passes, (they won’t have time for sacks), drop 7 on first down, 8 on second and third, and use a freaky zone blitz, dropping my defensive tackles into zone coverage two or three times on third and medium, bringing/blitzing Hairston/Geiger off the edge.
Under. Look at the score of games we have won since 2018, against UF.
I don’t see UF scoring early and often, and we’ll stay pretty conservative if history is any guide.
Frankly, the only way I see a point total above 48.5 is if we come out sharp, and pound them throughout.
If we go up 21ish in the third/fourth, we’ll surrender yards and points to burn clock.
Given their Knoxville win, the big money will come in on Florida & this line goes down to 2 or 1 1/2 by kickoff
Brad White put Anthony Richardson into a 3 hour horror show 12 months ago. Kid was scared to try and read/throw against our zone. We've got to whip their O line and thd attempt to establish a run game & get an early lead. A UK win depends on our D line.
Brad White put Anthony Richardson into a 3 hour horror show 12 months ago. Kid was scared to try and read/throw against our zone. We've got to whip their O line and thd attempt to establish a run game & get an early lead. A UK win depends on our D line.
Pressure up the middle from Walker and Wallace can make life miserable for a QB.
I think a win by UK will depend on how our offensive line plays. We have got to do better blocking and opening up some better holes than we did at Vandy. Our defense is looking pretty good right now. Would love to see UK beat Fla.
I’d say they own him would be more accurate. Don’t blame him.
I actually feel good about this. I trust Vegas. They know things
They also know Florida is an easy bet for the average person. They beat Tennessee and we are just “Kentucky”.
I think we have this.
They also know Florida is an easy bet for the average person. They beat Tennessee and we are just “Kentucky”.
I think we have this.
Yep. Plus we played Florida very very well under stoops, even in losses. The lone exception i remember was the covid year when I think we had tons out
If UK brings their A game I think we win by 2 Tds.
Florida couldn't even beat Charlotte by 24 at home or come close to 34 points against them.
But you think they are winning n Lexington by 24? You clearly haven't been paying attention.
Hack is right on both that the point-spread is not a probability statement on a potential outcome, but an attempt to get 50% of the $ on one side and 50% on the other; but the point-spreads, over time, is a reasonably good gauge compared to many of the other ones out there.
For the game, I always love our D but I think our D is a specific matchup problem for fla. And i think we have enough playmakers to put up points. My Spidey-sense tells me that the playbook will open up and feature an unexpected pop to DSK or Jefferson, and just some plays in general we haven't seen yet this year that gets us some chunks. Cats win, maybe not a blowout, but fairly decisively and it doesn't come down to the last series....24-13 or something like that. I think this game we have fewer penalties and play our best game so far this season insofar as fundamentals.
For the game, I always love our D but I think our D is a specific matchup problem for fla. And i think we have enough playmakers to put up points. My Spidey-sense tells me that the playbook will open up and feature an unexpected pop to DSK or Jefferson, and just some plays in general we haven't seen yet this year that gets us some chunks. Cats win, maybe not a blowout, but fairly decisively and it doesn't come down to the last series....24-13 or something like that. I think this game we have fewer penalties and play our best game so far this season insofar as fundamentals.
Just put an obvious Louisville or Knoxville poster on ignore
Against Florida, I never go into a game feeling overly confident in us getting the win. We have seen us blow a number of chances at wins against them over the years. Unless the offense makes some strides this week, I think we lose by about 7. I hope I'm wrong and we get to see those improvements (more consistent throws, less drops, better run blocking, better protection).
-i know its hard for some people, but folks need to let go of the past...this ain't 10 years ago, UK has the better team right now. The distant past literally means nothing in regards to this year's match up.
-last year it was the "big" Utah win that made Florida "a problem"...until uk *handled* them at the swamp. This year folks are looking at the UT win as a big statement for Florida. UT isn't the same team w/o Hooker and the NFL receiving corps.
-cats could get beaten by UF...anything is possible. But again, UK has the better team/program right now.
-UK by 10-14 points.
-last year it was the "big" Utah win that made Florida "a problem"...until uk *handled* them at the swamp. This year folks are looking at the UT win as a big statement for Florida. UT isn't the same team w/o Hooker and the NFL receiving corps.
-cats could get beaten by UF...anything is possible. But again, UK has the better team/program right now.
-UK by 10-14 points.
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That was my first thought and that's often a good sign for the other team.
Its almost like the rankings are meaningless popularity contests of name historic programs! And not accurate rankings of current team qualities!
Each week’s AP rankings, especially early on, have a lot of regional loyalty built in.
Had UF lost to Utah, and Mizzou to K-State, we would likely be Top 25 right now, but how can you get left coast, Big Ten, or Big 12 voters to vote for 8 or 10 SEC teams this early?
Money-lines are purely market driven. Not perfect, but each “voter” has more “on the line,” than do poll voters.
We were clearly favored over NC State in the TS/Gator Bowl in 2020, though they were ranked.
You might say this Florida line is giving us the respect we deserve.
They've only managed 1TD in 2/4 games. 1 TD against Charlotte, lol. Our defense is going to feast. I'll be surprised if they score more than 2 offensive TDs.
I bet a tease collar. $200 on two bets. UK +3.5/Over 38.5 and UK +3.5/Under 50.5. I'm more concerned at getting to 39 than staying below 51.
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