I keep hearing about wanting more. About a next step...but what does that mean?
-4 SEC Programs have played in a national title game in the last 10 seasons. It'll go down to 3 after this season ends.
-5 SEC teams have multiple 10 win seasons the last 5 full seasons (we're one of them)
So it's now figuring out picking a program and comparing us...what's the ceiling....what is that next step. Being the big angry fan going "FIX IT NOW STOOPS DO BETTER NO EXCUSES. MAKE THEM PLAY BETTER ITS ON YOU" Lets define the next step. Lets compare it to other programs in our league. Lets make realistic demands....lets look at other SEC teams and compare and you can point to a program and say "why aren't we doing that?"
This isn't saying you can't be mad about losses...but at the same time sometimes we live in a vacuum and don't realize other programs try to get better...recruit great talent...have smart coaches with good gameplans...and that there's several teams in the same position as us. But define what we want?
These top 7 programs we can't emulate....
-Bama/UGA: we aren't going to duplicate it. Their floor is a New Year's Day Bowl.
-LSU, Florida, & Auburn: all have shown their ceiling is a national title. And with all the resources...these 3 programs have churned through coaches the last decade and haven't found an answer.
-Tennessee & Texas A&M: I mean why would we want to emulate these programs? 100k fans, money, recruits, and etc. and they don't compete for titles. I mean A&M paid for a title winning coach...invests in facilities...recruits top 5...and it still doesn't work.
So those 7 programs just have resource advantages...idc about message board experts claiming it's no excuse and such...we can't emulate those 7 programs. Claim what you will that resources don't matter...give Stoops those LSU athletes on defense and tell me we don't have a top 10 defense yearly? They have multiple Deone Walker type talents...multiple Kelvin Josephs...multiple Barion Brown and Lynn Bowden level athletes...don't tell me it wouldn't make a difference.
So on to the next group....programs we can compete with....lets look at their peak years recently...
A)-South Carolina...
Their ceiling was the Spurrier era. They got a HOF coach at the end of his prime...very lucky circumstance. From 2005 to 2009 their records...7-5, 8-5, 6-6, 7-6, & 7-6. THen they had their 4 year amazing run...they did win the East in a year they went 9-5. They year they won the East they were the only SEC team ranked at the end of the year at #22...so don't ever give me that "Stoops taking advantage of a down SEC East" because 2010 was the worst year ever. They had 3 straight 11-2 seasons...fell to 7-6 and then 3-9. Since 2013....7-6, 3-9, 6-7, 9-4, 7-6, 4-8, 2-8, 7-6, & 8-5. Muschamp had a 9 win year...Dancing Boy had a good end to last year...but it fluctuates.
B)-Mississippi State...
Dan Mullen is their peak. Solid coach...he's really a Stoops type of hire. In 9 years they finished over .500 in SEC play. He had one of the best QBs in SEC history in Dak Prescott. They were consistent...recruited well. Had a historic talent and some good luck and had a 10-3 season in 2014. But Bama was great and so was Ole Miss. Well and Mike Leach was going to be awesome IMO...
C)-Ole Miss...
So they've been up and down. Their high was Hugh Freeze. Lets be clear...he was cheating and their success was that they could recruit top 10-15 classes. A very risky hire that hurt them. Ok...so then they hired Lane Kiffin...a guy that had some failures on his resume but cleaned it up. He's a good offensive mind. He's not really recruiting amazing...but top 25 level. They're doing what we do. 10-3 with a NFL QB talent in 2021. Their best wins are against Arkansas in 2021 and us in 2022. He's doing ok, but long-term we'll see if he gets them beyond where they are now. I personally remember really wanting him when we talked about wanting Stoops in 2016...
D)-Missouri...
So their peak was Pinkel...he entered the SEC and went 5-7. Had their 2 East titles in down years in the East. Since then...5-7, 4-8, 7-6, 8-5, 6-6, 5-5, 6-7, & 6-7. Looking good this year... but they play UGA, Tennessee, & Florida all in a row. The difference in their season is beating us...as it was in 2020. Their season looks better last year if they beat us. So their method was Pinkel...long term coach that was up and down.
E)-Arkansas...
Their peak was Petrino. A mix between a Spurrier lucky hire and a risky Freeze hire. It crashed and burned. Bielema was kind of a Stoops type of hire...it wasn't enough for them and they went for the young offensive mind in Chad Morris and it failed. Pittman is a Stoops type of hire and it's been good and bad...close losses and close wins. Just a hard ceiling. Best years were during the Houston Nutt era when the SEC West wasn't that great..and even then they weren't that good.
F)-Vandy...
They got James Franklin and he left after 3 years to an elite school. That's it for them. Derek Mason was probably their most consistent coach ever...but even that was maxed out. So can we even compare them to us?
So what's the model? All of these schools recruit hard and spend money...they all are trying for that next step...which of them have gotten there and what's the model to do it?
1. Spurrier's SC teams. So can we find a HOF National Championship winning coach at the end of his prime? Remember they tried that with Holtz and it didn't work. So basically could we get Urban Meyer to Lexington? IF you think that's possible then go for it...but it's not likely. If our 2018 or 2021 teams played in 2010, we go to Atlanta as well. So we did have teams on that level. But Spurrier's teams peaked and then crashed. There wasn't a next step...they didn't even make a BCS Bowl.
2. The Arkansas/Ole Miss type hires of Petrino & Hugh Freeze. I mean we could find a cheating scumbag...but remember we told Petrino no for a reason in 2012. Maybe Freeze gets Auburn back...but it's pretty much selling your soul for short-term gain. We are a program that could do it though...nothing to lose. But who is that option now? Mel Tucker? Jim Harbaugh?
3. The Lane Kiffin/Mike Leach model. Really it would be getting Tom Herman. I wouldn't push Stoops out for Tom Herman...but he'd be my first call if he left. A proven winner at multiple places...a good pedigree...but just wasn't up to the task of a big time program. Dan Mullen may fit this mold too. But are those guys that you just know would elevate the program? Lane is doing fine at Ole Miss...but I doubt they reach some higher level. Leach was always the guy I wanted and we could've gotten him...just sucks we never got the chance. To find a guy like this it takes perfect timing
4. The safe, patient, & consistent model....Mullen, Pinkel, & Stoops. Pinkel had a system and it worked. It wasn't great every year...but they just needed the right breaks and it could work. They got to an East title in 2013-2014....I believe our 2018/2021 teams were on that level but UGA owns the league now. Mullen was always steady...had a special group in 2014 with an elite QB...but just unfair that Bama was on another level...same as our 2018/2021 teams. You knew what he could do...they'd be competitive and go to bowls and if he had a good group of returning guys. You know it works...you know it's steady...and it's better than you've ever had.
Because moving on is never perfect when you don't have the right guy or coordinator...
-Elliot at Arkansas was the guy to get Arkansas back and get over the hump...failure
-Odom would just keep the Pinkel days going....
-Moorhead at Miss State was a good offensive mind...
-Butch Jones and Jeremy Pruitt at Tennessee...
And if it's about money then that's fine...maybe Stoops is making too much? But when you factor in historical and geographical realities of this place with the toughness of the league...but heck we all know if he left because of money it would be all on Mitch for not giving him what he wanted. Because many claim X coach could come in and do the same for cheaper...yet I still wonder if that coach exists because no one knows. To get one of those coaches...it takes luck and the right timing.
-4 SEC Programs have played in a national title game in the last 10 seasons. It'll go down to 3 after this season ends.
-5 SEC teams have multiple 10 win seasons the last 5 full seasons (we're one of them)
So it's now figuring out picking a program and comparing us...what's the ceiling....what is that next step. Being the big angry fan going "FIX IT NOW STOOPS DO BETTER NO EXCUSES. MAKE THEM PLAY BETTER ITS ON YOU" Lets define the next step. Lets compare it to other programs in our league. Lets make realistic demands....lets look at other SEC teams and compare and you can point to a program and say "why aren't we doing that?"
This isn't saying you can't be mad about losses...but at the same time sometimes we live in a vacuum and don't realize other programs try to get better...recruit great talent...have smart coaches with good gameplans...and that there's several teams in the same position as us. But define what we want?
These top 7 programs we can't emulate....
-Bama/UGA: we aren't going to duplicate it. Their floor is a New Year's Day Bowl.
-LSU, Florida, & Auburn: all have shown their ceiling is a national title. And with all the resources...these 3 programs have churned through coaches the last decade and haven't found an answer.
-Tennessee & Texas A&M: I mean why would we want to emulate these programs? 100k fans, money, recruits, and etc. and they don't compete for titles. I mean A&M paid for a title winning coach...invests in facilities...recruits top 5...and it still doesn't work.
So those 7 programs just have resource advantages...idc about message board experts claiming it's no excuse and such...we can't emulate those 7 programs. Claim what you will that resources don't matter...give Stoops those LSU athletes on defense and tell me we don't have a top 10 defense yearly? They have multiple Deone Walker type talents...multiple Kelvin Josephs...multiple Barion Brown and Lynn Bowden level athletes...don't tell me it wouldn't make a difference.
So on to the next group....programs we can compete with....lets look at their peak years recently...
A)-South Carolina...
Their ceiling was the Spurrier era. They got a HOF coach at the end of his prime...very lucky circumstance. From 2005 to 2009 their records...7-5, 8-5, 6-6, 7-6, & 7-6. THen they had their 4 year amazing run...they did win the East in a year they went 9-5. They year they won the East they were the only SEC team ranked at the end of the year at #22...so don't ever give me that "Stoops taking advantage of a down SEC East" because 2010 was the worst year ever. They had 3 straight 11-2 seasons...fell to 7-6 and then 3-9. Since 2013....7-6, 3-9, 6-7, 9-4, 7-6, 4-8, 2-8, 7-6, & 8-5. Muschamp had a 9 win year...Dancing Boy had a good end to last year...but it fluctuates.
B)-Mississippi State...
Dan Mullen is their peak. Solid coach...he's really a Stoops type of hire. In 9 years they finished over .500 in SEC play. He had one of the best QBs in SEC history in Dak Prescott. They were consistent...recruited well. Had a historic talent and some good luck and had a 10-3 season in 2014. But Bama was great and so was Ole Miss. Well and Mike Leach was going to be awesome IMO...
C)-Ole Miss...
So they've been up and down. Their high was Hugh Freeze. Lets be clear...he was cheating and their success was that they could recruit top 10-15 classes. A very risky hire that hurt them. Ok...so then they hired Lane Kiffin...a guy that had some failures on his resume but cleaned it up. He's a good offensive mind. He's not really recruiting amazing...but top 25 level. They're doing what we do. 10-3 with a NFL QB talent in 2021. Their best wins are against Arkansas in 2021 and us in 2022. He's doing ok, but long-term we'll see if he gets them beyond where they are now. I personally remember really wanting him when we talked about wanting Stoops in 2016...
D)-Missouri...
So their peak was Pinkel...he entered the SEC and went 5-7. Had their 2 East titles in down years in the East. Since then...5-7, 4-8, 7-6, 8-5, 6-6, 5-5, 6-7, & 6-7. Looking good this year... but they play UGA, Tennessee, & Florida all in a row. The difference in their season is beating us...as it was in 2020. Their season looks better last year if they beat us. So their method was Pinkel...long term coach that was up and down.
E)-Arkansas...
Their peak was Petrino. A mix between a Spurrier lucky hire and a risky Freeze hire. It crashed and burned. Bielema was kind of a Stoops type of hire...it wasn't enough for them and they went for the young offensive mind in Chad Morris and it failed. Pittman is a Stoops type of hire and it's been good and bad...close losses and close wins. Just a hard ceiling. Best years were during the Houston Nutt era when the SEC West wasn't that great..and even then they weren't that good.
F)-Vandy...
They got James Franklin and he left after 3 years to an elite school. That's it for them. Derek Mason was probably their most consistent coach ever...but even that was maxed out. So can we even compare them to us?
So what's the model? All of these schools recruit hard and spend money...they all are trying for that next step...which of them have gotten there and what's the model to do it?
1. Spurrier's SC teams. So can we find a HOF National Championship winning coach at the end of his prime? Remember they tried that with Holtz and it didn't work. So basically could we get Urban Meyer to Lexington? IF you think that's possible then go for it...but it's not likely. If our 2018 or 2021 teams played in 2010, we go to Atlanta as well. So we did have teams on that level. But Spurrier's teams peaked and then crashed. There wasn't a next step...they didn't even make a BCS Bowl.
2. The Arkansas/Ole Miss type hires of Petrino & Hugh Freeze. I mean we could find a cheating scumbag...but remember we told Petrino no for a reason in 2012. Maybe Freeze gets Auburn back...but it's pretty much selling your soul for short-term gain. We are a program that could do it though...nothing to lose. But who is that option now? Mel Tucker? Jim Harbaugh?
3. The Lane Kiffin/Mike Leach model. Really it would be getting Tom Herman. I wouldn't push Stoops out for Tom Herman...but he'd be my first call if he left. A proven winner at multiple places...a good pedigree...but just wasn't up to the task of a big time program. Dan Mullen may fit this mold too. But are those guys that you just know would elevate the program? Lane is doing fine at Ole Miss...but I doubt they reach some higher level. Leach was always the guy I wanted and we could've gotten him...just sucks we never got the chance. To find a guy like this it takes perfect timing
4. The safe, patient, & consistent model....Mullen, Pinkel, & Stoops. Pinkel had a system and it worked. It wasn't great every year...but they just needed the right breaks and it could work. They got to an East title in 2013-2014....I believe our 2018/2021 teams were on that level but UGA owns the league now. Mullen was always steady...had a special group in 2014 with an elite QB...but just unfair that Bama was on another level...same as our 2018/2021 teams. You knew what he could do...they'd be competitive and go to bowls and if he had a good group of returning guys. You know it works...you know it's steady...and it's better than you've ever had.
Because moving on is never perfect when you don't have the right guy or coordinator...
-Elliot at Arkansas was the guy to get Arkansas back and get over the hump...failure
-Odom would just keep the Pinkel days going....
-Moorhead at Miss State was a good offensive mind...
-Butch Jones and Jeremy Pruitt at Tennessee...
And if it's about money then that's fine...maybe Stoops is making too much? But when you factor in historical and geographical realities of this place with the toughness of the league...but heck we all know if he left because of money it would be all on Mitch for not giving him what he wanted. Because many claim X coach could come in and do the same for cheaper...yet I still wonder if that coach exists because no one knows. To get one of those coaches...it takes luck and the right timing.
