I'm just starting to look at the advance PPs and I'm thinking that it won't be much of a price this year. American Pharoah will be the favorite and probably rightly so. He was never asked for anything in the Arkansas Derby and won by 8. He has been on the lead or sitting right off in every race so there is no telling if he can rate. He could be more post compromised than most. Dortmund certainly gives Baffert a good 1-2 punch. He will probably be second choice but between those 2 I give Pharoah the edge. International Star is the top horse as far as points go but I really just think he's been beating up on a bunch of crap horses down at the Fairgrounds. Materiality is very, very, very intriguing but is battling history. He's be the first horse to win the Derby without a start as a 2 year old. He does have the highest Beyer in the field with a 110 in the Florida Derby. I don't think much of the rest of Pletcher's horses, even Carpe Diem. I don't think much of what was behind him in the Blue Grass and I just don't think he's fast enough. Frosted will definitely be on my Pick 4 ticket. He's certainly overcome the most adversity and his Wood Memorial was impressive. He was 4 wide on both turns and still won going away. The most interesting horse in the field may be Mubtaahij. The UAE Derby hasn't been much of a springboard for the Derby but now it's at least run on dirt instead of synthetic. Mike de Kock is one of the best trainers in the world, people just don't know it because he does it all overseas. I also don't mind the European jockey. He's always over here for the Breeder's Cup and is actually used to the 20 horse field unlike any American jockey. He may even be a bit of a price. The only other horses that I think much of at all right now are Upstart and Bolo. Bolo seems to have taken to the dirt well after not liking the grass.
An interesting stat. The last 16 Derbies have been won by 16 different trainers. That's kind of stunning that nobody can win 2 in 16 years.
An interesting stat. The last 16 Derbies have been won by 16 different trainers. That's kind of stunning that nobody can win 2 in 16 years.