Blake Ruffino of Ayes Sports breaks down why he thinks the CATS can make the playoffs:
Kentucky a playoff sleeper?
- Thread starter Deeeefense
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I can buy into what he is saying. However, I thought we would have special seasons the last two years and the team just couldn't get to the next level. UK has road games at two of the best teams in the country (TX & Ole MISS) and at UT, plus UGA. I can't disagree with anything he said, but the schedule is brutal, which he alluded to.
Totally agree with both. The Question to me is this - is Stoops really ready to be Kentucky's Coach again? I felt good but not great after the Clemson game. The depth and injuries cost us that game more than people here seem to acknowledge. The coaches were also afraid to trust the players on the last drive. But this team has lots of potential - enough to possibly make A & M regret backing out on Stoops? Now the question, as I alluded to - is Stoops ready to be Kentucky's coach?
Go Big Blue!
I’m not doing this. I’m very optimistic, but if/when you talk about how good we can be, people don’t understand it being relative. When you talk about a LONG shot possibility of a playoff, a lot of people’s psyche can’t handle it if/when we go 7-5. They’ll be whining when 7-5 won’t be a terrible season with this schedule, and 8-4 would be a very good year.) We could for sure get to the playoff at 10-2 (IDK about 9-3). So I just use 10-2 as my target, and I don’t see it happening. I’d put our percentage chance of winning 5 of these 7 at less than 1%: UGA/@Ole Miss/@UT/@UTjr(Tenn)/@UF/Aub/UofL.
Yea my take is we have a very talented and seasoned roster so that potential is there. Whether or not potential turns into success is yet to be seen. Also I thought he makes some interesting points about UK's NIL program and it's impact on the roster.
He's talking like he has blue colored glasses. I like it, but everything is riding on a talented, but unproven QB and new offense install. If Levis 2021 2.0, then he's spot on, but if Leary 2.0 or Levis/Scan 2.0 then we're bowling in Tennessee. My preliminary thoughts are 7-5, 8-4, 6-6, 9-3, 10-2 in order of likelihood, but that's assuming closer to Leary 2.0.
With a 12 team playoff system it seems to me that you can probably eliminate about 75% of the teams from making the playoffs from the get go, then you can point to maybe 4-6 that appear to be locks short of a disaster. Then what's left is a group of 20 or so "tweeners" A tweener is a team that has enough talent and experience to make it but will have to have a really good season to do it. I think in short he is saying Kentucky is one of those tweeners this year.
We have an insane schedule. Will be tough.
Love his logic. Do not believe that anyone else has analyzed it better. Success or failure will depend on the QB and whether or not the offense can keep the defense on the sidelines. Texas, UGA, Ole Miss, and Florida is brutal and UK will be the underdog in all four games. Win two and it will be an unbelievable season!
I like the way our lower schools are sprinkled and not bunched up to start the season. I think that will help us to breath a little in between our toughest games.
I don't think there are any easy schedules this year. UF's is so tough they could be 2-10, UGA's is tough with 2 playoff teams from last year alone with UF, UTn, UK, AU, OM, UTx, Bama with MSST being the team expected to be down and Clemson as an OOC game. We could easily lose 3-5 game.
I think BV is going to be pretty good for UK, competition with Beck was supposely very close. But with 3 SEC teams in and an outside shot at a 4th, I think there are 10 with a legit chance of getting in.
I think BV is going to be pretty good for UK, competition with Beck was supposely very close. But with 3 SEC teams in and an outside shot at a 4th, I think there are 10 with a legit chance of getting in.
To make the 12 team playoff you pribably need to go 10 and 2 to 100% make it. Stoops choked like a dog on a bone in 2018 and 2021 when he had a shot at 10 regular season wins.
9 and 3 probably doesn't get it done for UK. Don't believe we were top 12 heading into bowl season n 2018 or 2021. It's really top 11 as well due to guaranteed non power 5 cupcake spot reserved.
9 and 3 probably doesn't get it done for UK. Don't believe we were top 12 heading into bowl season n 2018 or 2021. It's really top 11 as well due to guaranteed non power 5 cupcake spot reserved.
I would not be surprised to see a dozen or so SEC teams all with 7/8 win seasons.
I went back and checked one time. We weren’t top 12 either time we finished regular season 9-3 I believe. So our best years under Stoops we wouldn’t have made it and now our conference schedule is tougher. It’s not impossible but would require a step up.
I think this team has the potential to be better than those teams because those teams were comparatively low scoring and didn't feature much of a passing game. This team, at least on paper has the dudes and the coaches to be able to put up some numbers unlike those teams. If we have the typical Stoops defense to go with it then this team hypothetically could wind up higher ranked then those. However as we all know the schedule is going to be tougher then those teams - so we'll see.
With a tougher schedule, 9-3 may be enough to earn a higher ranking as well.
At this point, there are so many "what ifs" with this team (especially offensively), anything from 5-7 to 10-2 wouldn't surprise me.
I don't know how anyone can make this stretch with us never having but one functional offense in the last 12 seasons unless they themselves don't actually realize it. It may happen again one day but it's a 'see it first' situation. Combine that with our schedule of the past being gone I'm not sure how someone could anticipate it.
Not trusting players is a Stoops staple. I also don't over read into that game we had our 'NFL' rb and qb decide to play with some other guys while they had a bunch of relevant guys out.
Until we get more aggressive on both sides of the ball we won’t compete even with good players. The scheme, especially defense is to conservative. The coaches play scared in my opinion.
Because the past offenses aren't playing this season. From purely a talent perspective one could argue that this is likely the most talented offense of the Stoops era.
Nope. Not getting on the train again this year. If we have a great year then I will cheer at the top of my voice, but until I see Stoops actually fix the things that are broken with his schemes and procedures I am remaining skeptical.
I think from a depth stand point that is absolutely true for the skill positions. I don't think there is anyone there as good as Wandale Robinson was, but there are multiple guys a step below him, same as RB, Snell and Rodiquez were elite RB, I dont' know if anyone on the roster is at that lvl but just like WR, some just a step below them. From a talent standpoint, I think Vandagriff is at least at the lvl of Levis, maybe not quite the arm strength but very close and at least the same lvl of athlete. The difference, from what was shown last season is the OL, it wasn't on the lvl of what everyone had grown to expect from a UK OL. No matter who is at QB, RB and WR, OL play will have to improve from last year's level of play.
Agree about the OL...and the good news is there are a lot of reasons to believe OL play will improve this year, perhaps substantially.
So does everyone in the SEC. But look at how it lays out. Look where the open dates are and who we play after those open dates. Look at how the OOC games are spread out instead of front loaded. We have breaks, we don’t have that 4-5 game gauntlet of high intensity games. We get an open date and Murray State before going to Texas. Not that I’m saying we beat them or anything, but we should be rested and healthy at least. I just think the schedule sets up to where we can avoid those demoralizing multi game losing streaks and possibly have some momentum going into some games. Just need to avoid the Stoops trademark klunker against a team we should beat.
I dont think any teams fanbases are prepared for the reality of no divisions 16 team Superconference. The schools that finish 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, it will be impossible for the coaches to recover and keep their jobs. Even if the previous seasons were successful.
Not trying to be an ass but, How can you possibly know that?? We have a QB that’s never played, receivers that dropped a hundred balls last year, a new OC that hasn’t called a play?? This is the exact example of the coachspeak warriors syndrome. After the media pumps the fanbase folks will be predicting a 10 win, best team ever monologue. Let’s just wait. See the fan day. Look at the blue/white game before any of this best offense ever talk gets started again this year. Last year it was, Leary is pin point accurate, Brown has taken the next step, Yada yada. None were true.
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Toughest games in order imo are UGA, @Tx, &OM, and @UT, win two of those games and we’d probably have a real shot at being in. There’s probably a slim chance of making it in at 9-3 if we lose the first three (as those guys should finish top 10) and win in Knoxville. Biggest concern for me is the Scangarello effect and how we look under a new OC. Lots of questions on offense with a new OC, QB, featured RB, and OL coach but the potential’s there and we’re getting to the point that if we lose a 4* guy he can be replaced with another. Anywhere from 7-5 to 10-2 is possible, but I’d lean 8-4/9-3 until we get a couple of games under our belt and would be happy with that.
We are playoff contenders only in our dreams. Haven't won at Ole Miss since 1979, Tennessee literally owns us, Georgia is way better than us (and almost everyone else), Texas was a CFP team last year, etc. 8-4 would be a major success this season. In fact, Stoops has only won 8 regular season games twice in his career, pretty unlikely that 2024 is no. 3.
I agree our schedule is as favorable as it can be given the insane competition we face. But we still face that competition. It's possible but will be a monumental task.
You’re right it’s still insane competition but the schedule isn’t even as favorable as it could be. It sets up pretty well but our byes are before Vandy and Murray. Ideally those would be before Tenn and one of the other big four.
I didn't say I "knew" I said one could argue.
That's why I said purely from a talent perspective, not experience, although BV did get snaps last season in a mop up roll and you can't totally discount 2 years of practicing on a national championship team.
The receivers improved considerably in that area as the season progress. Brown and Key are both NFL talents and we have added some 4 star type talent in back of them. There has never been more talent at receiver in the Stoops era that what we have for 2024.
Hamlan was the OC for Boise State last season and called plays.
Bahaahaahaa! How much did someone with the program pay this guy to make a hype video like that? UK has never finished high enough in the rankings prior to bowl season to sniff a playoff, even with the new format. Why would they now, 11 or 12 into the Stoops era ? It's the same fake media hype train every year to keep people interested enough and sell tickets. We are in a show me year for this team and coaching staff. I'm not buying any of it.
Whoopty do, they trade in dollars down there too. Who in their right mind thinks this team will make the playoff? Let's change the conversation a bit.... based on past results ,
what percentage chance does this team have to make the playoff?
My optimistic opinion would be 10%... pessimistic 1% or less .... tempered/realistic opinion 3-5% chance. Not sure a team would be considered a threat at even 10%.
He's not predicting anything, he simply is pointing to some facts such as the fact we return 9 starters on defense, replace one of the departed players with an all SEC LB, and how UK has used the portal to reinforce the O-line and RB spots with very talented players. Also how the roster is loaded with juniors and seniors, including one 6 year senior on edge. He points out that teams with a lot of upper class experience usually have very good seasons.
I would go a little higher maybe 15-20 but 10 is fair.
Kills me how much the defense has just been garbage the last few years, especially blowing it in the bowl game... what are we missing? Is it coaching? Is it lack of pass rush? Stats that build up against OOC Pattsies and don't hold true against big time opponents don't hold water either.
2023 was a bad year for the defense. But prior to that, we were solid on defense for 4-5 years. We had a top 5 scoring defense in the SEC for 3 or 4 straight years.
Considering that, I do expect the defense to be a strength. It has been every year but one under Brad White.
