Despite playing a pedestrian opponent, tonight’s game boosted our KenPom rating. We improved from 19th to 16th and improved our defense from 35 to 27. Things are trending unbelievably good for us!
KenPom
- Thread starter B.B.H.
- Start date
Defense stat is surprising, but I'll take it.
Offense? UK scored 108 (most this season) while shooting 58% from the floor and 44% from 3.
Only 8 of the 15 teams ahead of UK in KP have a better O. And only 12 of the 15 have a better D and only 9 have a better SOS.
Only 8 of the 15 teams ahead of UK in KP have a better O. And only 12 of the 15 have a better D and only 9 have a better SOS.
Offense still 12th. Might have increased efficiency but not enough to jump to 11
The four factors this is where we rank on defense:
effective FG% = 41.7% (22nd)
turnover% = 14.7 (293rd)
Rebounding% = 23.8 (35th)
FGA/FTA = 18.7 (5th)
Only thing we don't do well on defense is force turnovers. We have a very good defense at least through 5 games.
It really doesn't feel like we have great defense most of the time. The numbers are what they are, but aside from the second half of the duke game, I've been disappointed with how easily teams can get into the paint and score or get bailed out with a bad foul. Again, I'm a nobody and the numbers are what they are, but numbers don't tell us everything.
I had the same feeling. I’m trying to adjust my eyes to the data. I do see some good effort to contest jump shots but I also see a tendency to give up driving lanes. We don’t have to be a top defense. If we land in top 15 or 20, we can be special with the offense we have. Rebounding simply has to be better imo
We were also majorly helped by Duke winning a road game at Zona.
We really need about 3 more boards out of Carr, and 1-2 more out of Robinson, Brea and Oweh each game. That would go a long way. The rest of the guys are doing pretty well relative to their size.
The absolute coolest thing about this team to me is that nobody averages more than 24 minutes. I think that’s going to pay big dividends come tournament time.
Our bench is outscoring our opponents something like 195-80. I know we have played some awful teams but we manhandled a damn good Dukes bench too, 25-6!
We bounce around. The teams are starting to get interconnected, which is what they are supposed to do.
Strictly speaking, last night’s game didn’t actually help our KenPom ranking. In fact it hurt it, which is to be expected from us playing such a spectacularly weak team especially since we eased off a little in the last five minutes.
Immediately before last night’s game we were KenPom-ranked 15, and after the first update made after the game concluded we dropped to 16. Then by the time all the results were in by the end of the night, results from other teams we are connected to pulled us back up to 15.
Strictly speaking, last night’s game didn’t actually help our KenPom ranking. In fact it hurt it, which is to be expected from us playing such a spectacularly weak team especially since we eased off a little in the last five minutes.
Immediately before last night’s game we were KenPom-ranked 15, and after the first update made after the game concluded we dropped to 16. Then by the time all the results were in by the end of the night, results from other teams we are connected to pulled us back up to 15.
That’s the one possible issue I’ve noticed - not forcing enough turnovers. Hoping that’s a button we can push toward tournament time with guys like Butler and Oweh.
We have done a good job of challenging shots, but sometimes you can get burnt in the tournament by a hot team just shooting over you. Nice to have that extra card to play of forcing turnovers.
I’d actually rather be more of a disciplined defense rather than a gambling defense. I believe we can be good enough in the half court that gambling isn’t required so much to kickstart our offense.
It's really hard for me to believe there are 11 teams out there with a better offense than UK.
You have to remember KenPom has a heavy weight on predictive results based on the last season until about January. 12th in offense may not be accurate honestly and if we keep the gas, we could be top 10 or top 5 by January in that metric
I never said gambling. Teams that can generate turnovers/transition opportunities put themselves at an advantage in a one and done tournament setting.
It isn’t as big of a deal in the NBA where teams play 7 games and make adjustments. In the NCAA Tournament it can make all the difference.
The other part is that the deeper you go in the tournament, the more likely you are to face a hot team. Give up enough good looks and you will pay. It’s a lot of what has been wrong with teams like Purdue most seasons.
That being said, we do have a decent amount of rim protection. If you aren’t going to generate a slew of steals you at least need to block some shots, which we are doing so far.
We are also playing without fouling. Combine that with our depth and general relentlessness, and we have the composition of a tough out.
Hate to be a broken record, but Kenpom is largely based on his preseason guess still. He guessed wrong on us.
Oh yeah, the numbers will shake themselves out in a couple months.
I'm actually surprised we are rated where we are.
You know......i do feel tho there's players on this team capable of creating a lot of turnovers.
i guess the good thing is we don't turn it over on offense either so i guess our opponents aren't really getting up extra shots. Same thing with the rebounding. We aren't great on offense rebounding but our defensive rebounding was been really good so those categories have basically been washes.
Right now we are relying a lot on our shooting being that much better than everyone we played. But at some point, we are going to have a cold shooting night and we'll have to find a way to win those games.
It is not just us, or this system. Guards now are very skilled at getting past their man and driving the lane. Teams play less zone, and officiating has been more restrictive with regards to handchecking and bodying up, so it is very hard to stop teams from getting into the lane.
I think the lack of forced turnovers is largely scheme, as BYU ranked in the 250s last year, and in the 140s the year before.
I agree that we’ve got guys who can do it. Our MO seems to be more challenge shots, play without fouling, and trade 3s for 2s as much as possible.
We are a bit opportunistic about steals, like when Oweh stripped Flagg late.
Probably seems like I’m nitpicking, but when it comes to winning a Title, nitpicking is necessary, imo.
On the SUPER bright side, UCONN forced turnovers at a very similar rate to BYU the past two years. Caveat is that UConn was a top 4 rebounding team both seasons. So maybe if you aren’t going to force a ton of steals, make certain that you secure every rebound.
This, I wholeheartedly agree with. I feel teams who force a lot of turnovers are often giving up gaps to get them. A savvy team that is positioned well can be more dependable. Guys like Butler and Oweh are going to get steals regardless but I don’t need the rest of the roster doing anything extra, just stay assignment sound
Maybe so, but Jackson State? Lipscomb? I dunno. I don't claim to be a ball-knower.
On the flip side, Baylor was 3rd in the country in opponent turnover rate in 2021.
Obviously there are different ways to do this. I think “sound” is the key word here.
You don’t want a team that gambles to the point of getting abused, but you also don’t want to get back on your heels to the point of letting a team heat check you all night from deep.
I don’t think we are a perfect defensive team, but I do think we do a great job of putting a hand up to contest Jumpshots.
Yeah it seems to be more of the defensive philosophy of Pope (and Cal before him) to just not try to force many. Then on the flipside you got guys like Samson and Drew whose teams typically force a ton of turnovers.
Agreed..........either force a bunch of turnovers or rebound well. Limit teams shots.
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