Kenpom Update

[bbncal02]

Kentucky Now Sits at Number 11 Ranked 13th in Offense and 28th in Defense. (Once again, our defense HAS to get better if we want to go somewhere).

Only two teams sit in the T10 on both atm: Auburn and Tennessee.

UConn Falls All The Way to Number 28. OUCH.

 

[yoshukai]

Kentucky Now Sits at Number 11 Ranked 13th in Offense and 28th in Defense. (Once again, our defense HAS to get better if we want to go somewhere).

Only two teams sit in the T10 on both atm: Auburn and Tennessee.

UConn Falls All The Way to Number 28. OUCH.

Has any team shot 40% against us ?

 

[bbncal02]

Has any team shot 40% against us ?

I believe Duke was the closest with like 39.5% or something.

Our defense isn't bad. It's just not as good as some others right now. Still early as well.

 

[JPFisher]

I believe Duke was the closest with like 39.5% or something.

Our defense isn't bad. It's just not as good as some others right now. Still early as well.

It seems like our guards and wings have a hard time recovering if they get beat off the dribble. Not sure how we fix that or if I'm noticing the wrong thing.

 

[UK67KU59]

Kentucky Now Sits at Number 11 Ranked 13th in Offense and 28th in Defense. (Once again, our defense HAS to get better if we want to go somewhere).

Only two teams sit in the T10 on both atm: Auburn and Tennessee.

UConn Falls All The Way to Number 28. OUCH.

I think our defense is good and will continue to get better. These metrics aren’t fully calibrated to this seasons data yet so I think both our efficiency figure for defense is underrated and our offense figure is probably pretty accurate.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

Of the teams in the top 1o only Kansas, Iowa St Gonzaga, Auburn and TN have better Offensive, defensive and SOS #s than UK.

 

[ACT ONE]

I think our defense is good and will continue to get better. These metrics aren’t fully calibrated to this seasons data yet so I think both our efficiency figure for defense is underrated and our offense figure is probably pretty accurate.

This. Let's get into February and see where these teams are then. UK's defense ratings were terrible last year so it had no where to go but up.

 

[Bluegrass79]

None of those teams have Lamont Butler or wanna play against Lamont Butler defensive intensity.

So we will be seeing you soon Orange Lovers and Pearls same ol shit team.
I have the utmost confidence that coach Pope's going to make sure that these football schools ain't beating us in basketball. Or maybe Auburn isn't even a football school anymore.....idk lol

 

[MonsterMash79]

I believe Duke was the closest with like 39.5% or something.

Our defense isn't bad. It's just not as good as some others right now. Still early as well.

Honestly, our defense just gets lazy.. That’s something they can improve at👍 hopefully 🙏

 

[TheDude73]

I believe Duke was the closest with like 39.5% or something.

Our defense isn't bad. It's just not as good as some others right now. Still early as well.

KenPom still taking into account end of last year data, FYI.

This ranking won't mean squat until Jan 1 when that Cal garbage falls off the data inclusion.

 

[twwilliams9]

Kentucky Now Sits at Number 11 Ranked 13th in Offense and 28th in Defense. (Once again, our defense HAS to get better if we want to go somewhere).

Only two teams sit in the T10 on both atm: Auburn and Tennessee.

UConn Falls All The Way to Number 28. OUCH.

Relax We have 130 Days to get it right

 

[silentsaregolden2.0]

Not sure, but I think Pope's mindset might be that our offense is good enough that we don't need to be get into foul trouble by being too aggressive, and give up easy looks by overplaying passing lanes.

 

[Fox2monk]

Kentucky Now Sits at Number 11 Ranked 13th in Offense and 28th in Defense. (Once again, our defense HAS to get better if we want to go somewhere).

Only two teams sit in the T10 on both atm: Auburn and Tennessee.

UConn Falls All The Way to Number 28. OUCH.

28th isn’t that bad honestly. I’d like to see it improve but I’d say if we get top 10 offense and 20th defense or so we will be fine.

 

[Fox2monk]

It seems like our guards and wings have a hard time recovering if they get beat off the dribble. Not sure how we fix that or if I'm noticing the wrong thing.

We do have some athletic deficiencies but if we hold teams to missing 3’s and we make at the rate we do plus our paint offense we will win more games then not.

 

[The_Answer1313]

On November 4th (beginning of the season) our defense was 61st.

For it coming down all the way to 28th shows that we have played good defense. Remember the number still isn't completely based on what we did this season but also has some of last year's data baked in.

Honestly even if the final number was 28th, that along with a top 10 offense is a title contending team.

 

[crawfords corner]

We are 14th in possessions per game. 5th in winning margin. Those defensive numbers don't take in to account game situation and score. Kentucky's opponents have scored quite a bit better after they've already gotten their ass kicked and UK's defensive intensity wanes.

We're only allowing 66.8ppg.

What we need is a stat. and maybe someone already keeps it, but we need a garbage points stat. How many points do teams score in garbage time. I'd call garbage time the last 3-5 minutes of the game when teams have been blown out and the starters are mostly out of the game.

 

[anonymous_2011]

I believe Duke was the closest with like 39.5% or something.

Our defense isn't bad. It's just not as good as some others right now. Still early as well.

Just wait to Camp Cal...

 

[JonathanW]

Kentucky Now Sits at Number 11 Ranked 13th in Offense and 28th in Defense. (Once again, our defense HAS to get better if we want to go somewhere).

Only two teams sit in the T10 on both atm: Auburn and Tennessee.

UConn Falls All The Way to Number 28. OUCH.

I think we are early enough in the season that Kenpom is still partially using last year’s data.

 

[podgejeff_]

Kenpom's useless until January.

Especially with this year's team.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Kenpom's useless until January.

Especially with this year's team.

While it still has data in there from previous year and obviously that's not going to be accurate for a new team like UK, there's still a lot of predictability even now.

I mean just two days ago we won a game 87-68. Kenpom predicted 88-69.

 

[bluefaithful]

The board was so nice for awhile, everyone was so positive now all the Karen's are starting to come back cause we are winning. Great day!!

 

[UK67KU59]

While it still has data in there from previous year and obviously that's not going to be accurate for a new team like UK, there's still a lot of predictability even now.

I mean just two days ago we won a game 87-68. Kenpom predicted 88-69.

How did the Kenpom prediction compare to the actual score for our other games?

 

[bbncal02]

28th isn’t that bad honestly. I’d like to see it improve but I’d say if we get top 10 offense and 20th defense or so we will be fine.

I agree. This is no way a panic post by any means. Just a "here's what the numbers are showing right now." And they're pretty accurate atm (Auburn and EwwwwTee are two of the best teams by eye test and numbers are reflecting that; UConn looked AWFUL and whelp, fell to 28th.)

I just don't want us to have another season of "We can beat anyone but damn, we can't guard a traffic cone." And I don't think we will. We saw how tight our defense can be when we played Duke.

 

[bbncal02]

On November 4th (beginning of the season) our defense was 61st.

For it coming down all the way to 28th shows that we have played good defense. Remember the number still isn't completely based on what we did this season but also has some of last year's data baked in.

Honestly even if the final number was 28th, that along with a top 10 offense is a title contending team.

Agree. Again, not panicking at all. Just want to see that number come up a bit. Most title teams have been T10 in both. Would like to see us in he 10-15 range on D.

 

[bbncal02]

The board was so nice for awhile, everyone was so positive now all the Karen's are starting to come back cause we are winning. Great day!!

I'm not being Karenish at all. Just posting what the numbers are showing. And 28th isn't bad, but we can be better. Got to stop being so lackadaisical on defense at times.

I think our team thinks "Hey we can score at will, so...." but that might get us in trouble if we play a team that shuts us down like Duke did in the 1st half of our game with them.

We're on course to have a very good season. Just want to see us have a lockdown defense like almost EVERY UK coach has had at times (Rick, Tubby, even Cal all had teams that could frustrate the piss out of you!)

 

[Fox2monk]

I agree. This is no way a panic post by any means. Just a "here's what the numbers are showing right now." And they're pretty accurate atm (Auburn and EwwwwTee are two of the best teams by eye test and numbers are reflecting that; UConn looked AWFUL and whelp, fell to 28th.)

I just don't want us to have another season of "We can beat anyone but damn, we can't guard a traffic cone." And I don't think we will. We saw how tight our defense can be when we played Duke.

Oh yeah, I didn’t think it was. I’m happy we sit that far down honestly. If our 3 point defense stays this good I love where we stand. We will gain tons of points every game from 3 if those numbers stay the same or improve.

 

[The_Answer1313]

No doubt. I mean always better to be higher ranked in both than lower.

 

[The_Answer1313]

How did the Kenpom prediction compare to the actual score for our other games?

About as well as Vegas did and any other system.

On the Kenpom website, he posts model diagnostics in which he compares the errors in the predications on a month by month basis

It does indeed get better as the season goes on as one would expect. However, the difference in error between November and March is a lot smaller than some would like to believe.

 

[bbncal02]

About as well as Vegas did and any other system.

On the Kenpom website, he posts model diagnostics in which he compares the errors in the predications on a month by month basis

It does indeed get better as the season goes on as one would expect. However, the difference in error between November and March is a lot smaller than some would like to believe.

This. That's why it's one of the most respected models in sports. Now, I don't use it as gospel by any means, but it's always a good tool for me to glance at to see if my eyes are lying to me.

 

[bbncal02]

On a side note,

UofL is now No. 36. That has a potential to be a Q1 game or a very high Q2.

 

[The_Answer1313]

And I mean just think about it.

Started the season 43rd. Most suspected that was a bit too low.

But just after 6 games we are sitting at 13.

13 seems very reasonable to me.

It calibrated really fast even for UK a team with entire roster turnover.

 

[UK67KU59]

About as well as Vegas did and any other system.

On the Kenpom website, he posts model diagnostics in which he compares the errors in the predications on a month by month basis

It does indeed get better as the season goes on as one would expect. However, the difference in error between November and March is a lot smaller than some would like to believe.

How granularly does he report his errors? I would think his model error varies across teams and games and other factors.