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Just over a month from today, Kentucky football kicks off. Here are my thoughts!

-though I have no right to be(and you shouldn't care what I think)...I am happy to know you have legit interests in both schools and are not one of those frontrunner types. I can now read your posts without cynicism. I will however continue to make disparaging remarks about UT...because they are UT.

UT hasn't been much of a frontrunner in football since my freshmen year of college. Lol
 
During the streak to UT their was several games we should have won but found a way to lose. Also some of the games the refs were horrendous towards us.
 
Oh I agree it hasn't been competitive but we were leading several games until the very last. Should of had a few more wins except the play calling was atrocious and in others the refs were.
 
People who suggest we we struggle to get to 6 or 7 wins must not think we are very good. We have 8 home games and 2 winnable road games. So to say we will struggle to get 6 or 7 wins people are suggesting we get shut out on the road and lose 3 home games. That is not likely to happen imo.

I'm one of those, but it isn't because I don't think we're good enough. We should win 7 with a chance at 8. The issue, imo, is a change in mindset. Knowing they can win. It's hard to go from where we've been to seeing yourself as winning every game. You have to think you can before you will. Let's hope the coaches have fixed that for them now.
 
Just to reply to 2 comments above:

Missouri has beaten us IIRC 33-10, 48-3, and 20-10 in a game last year where we barely moved the ball at all, a pretty one sided 10 point loss. Sort of like we "only" beat Vandy 17-7 last year, but the outcome was never in doubt. But on paper at least, we should have talent pretty comparable to them, so I hope for the best this year.

As for Butch Jones, I saw his teams play in person several times at UC and they would have smoked Kentucky, no question in my mind. Plus UT has clobbered us the last two years with him as head coach. He was definitely my first choice to replace Joker. And it is not just my opinion he is the better coach, I am pretty sure that reports were that Mitch Barnhart called him, and he politely declined to talk to UK. Then MB moved on to other candidates.

That is not to say Stoops is not a good coach, just that if you asked 1000 fans nationwide who they would rather have, 95% would pick Jones right now.
 
We're 32 days away as I post this, from turning on the lights in the new Commonwealth Stadium, filling the bleachers, and kicking off the season. Here are some things to look forward to!

1. We will see a much more consistent team this year.
Patrick Towles started off playing terrific last season. When the rest of the team fell apart, his performance fell apart. I attribute that to youth on both sides of the ball, and lack of depth. Offensively, Neal Brown made some stupid calls (QB sneak on 4th and 10 maybe?), played a lot of east-west ball, even when it was evident that it didn't work. Sometimes, it was a surprise to see us throw it downfield more than 3 times in a game, and frankly, I just don't think he was on the same page as Coach Stoops.
Enter Shannon Dawson. He came in, and instantly made changes (namely, on the offensive line), moving our guards to a 3 point stance and reinforcing the need to play physical. If that's a mentality that he's had to push onto players as soon as he comes into the program, it tells me that our offensive line wasn't used to their potential. West Virginia had a physical, and often praised offensive line, and we pull in more talent than they do. I'm confident (based on Dawson's own comments) that this offense has all of the pieces that it needs to be incredibly successful. I think a year in college football getting used to the life of a collegiate student-athlete will pay dividends to our on-field production. I also expect to see a star emerge from the receiving corps in the process (I expect Garrett Johnson, but see Dorian Baker with a lot of potential to be a star as well).

Defensively, the staff has been very positive this off-season; as positive as they have been in their time at UK. Last year, linebackers have had issues getting into position on defense, and it would result in teams breaking off big runs. Coach Elliot is adamant that UK has shored up that issue. We also had issues with our CB's making plays. That could also be attributed to being out of proper position (our CB's have the ability to make plays, we've seen the flashes, we just haven't seen it come to fruition entirely). As our CB's go into their senior seasons, I fully expect them to be able to set themselves up to make big plays this season. Last year, they were responsible for only 3 of Kentucky's 16 interceptions. It was an improvement from the year before, but not a good enough improvement. Despite that, Kentucky was one of the best in the SEC (maybe the best?) at preventing explosive plays. The staff is working towards building an opportunistic defense that makes a lot of plays, in the form of a bend-don't-break defense. We've recruiting a lot of long, rangy, fast CB's, and some terrific safeties. Those are pieces that are essential to stopping teams in the red-zone. Being able to quickly react to the run on the perimeter, while having the speed, length, and athleticism to keep the ball away from big receivers. The defense had the bend aspect down (really doing an outstanding job at keeping the ball in front of them in the passing game), but the "don't break" aspect has to be shown this season. Playing in proper position and recruiting the personnel that we've recruited is essential to that.

2. We finally have SEC speed.
A lot of size, a lot of speed. Having a QB that is 6'5, 240#, running a 4.6 forty, and being ultra shifty is a real luxury, especially with the arm that he has. Having a player with the speed, and field vision that Boom Williams has, another luxury. Having the most advanced S&C program in the country in all sports, the biggest luxury of all.
At the SEC media days, Jordan Swindle commented on the improvements in our team's physical well being, stating how two years ago, UK only had 5 players that could run 19 mph, and at that point in time, Kentucky had 33 players that could run that speed. At a later date, Korem was interviewed, and that comment was brought up. Korem mentioned that there were actually 31 players that ran 20 mph!

Math time folks:
1.0 yard per second = ~2.0 mph
40 yards / 5 second = 8 yards/second = ~16 mph
40 yards / 4.4 sec. = 9.1 yards/second = ~18.2 mph
40 yards / 4 seconds = 10 yards/second = ~20 mph

For perspective, when Boom Williams broke out for his first touchdown against Ohio, he was clocked at 21.7 mph, and this is a man that made a lot of very fast, athletic teams look slow in the open field.

Think about that for a moment. Once guys have accelerated to the point that they're running full-speed, there are 31 guys on this team that run 40 yards in nearly 4 seconds flat. Hey, hopefully some play WR, then I bet Coach Dawson will be real happy about throwing the ball downfield!


3. We also have SEC size.
The joy of having a defense where 10 of the 11 starters are upperclassmen? They're so much more physically developed than kids out of high school. For a defense that is mostly revolved around speed, the size is pretty tremendous, especially in the linebacking corps.

Teams like Mizzou (outstanding run defense), will be fielding linebackers that weigh 235, 230, and 230 for their starters.
Georgia will start 3 linebackers weighing 230, 252, and 237.
Alabama will start linebackers weighing 252, 240, 258, and 252 (They also run a 3-4 base package).
Kentucky will start linebackers weighing 255 (Forrest), 252 (Hatcher), 272 (Johnson), and 225 (Flannigan), while having players with good size backing them up.

Not bad size compared to other SEC defenses that typically do a good job of stopping the run. As mentioned previously, it'll all come down to how the staff gets these guys into position. They have the speed and size to stop people, now they just have to be able to get where they need to be. The linebackers did a good job with that against Louisville to end the season, and the staff seems confident coming out of the off-season in that regard. Makes me feel good about the future of Kentucky's run defense.

As for other positions, we're on par with the SEC in every regard. We're not playing with slow, or undersized players anymore. That alone will take us a long way.

4. I'm confident that we will win at least seven games, possibly eight, before bowl season!
If I had to pick out wins right now, I'm going to say:

UL-Lafayette
Florida
Mizzou
Eastern Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Charlotte
Louisville

My reasoning?

Florida lost their entire offensive line to the draft, they're going to run with a new QB, and they lost their star RB. In their 3rd game of the season (and first SEC game, as well as first away game), they're still going to be adjusting to a completely new system, and while they gain a good offensive coach (which should mitigate some of the growth pains of having so many new offensive players), they lose defensive stars, as well as a very good defensive coach. That can't be ignored. I think we win this one.

Mizzou has had a rough off-season to say the least. To quote SDS, "The strength of the program over the last several years has been the pass rush, but the core of Shane Ray, Markus Golden, Harold Brantley (injury) and Marcus Loud (dismissed) is no longer available. Keeping defensive line coach Craig Kuligowski away from Illinois was a major plus following DC Dave Steckel’s exit to Missouri State. Another complication is the lack of proven pass-catchers. Tigers must replace their top four wideouts off last season’s team."
Mizzou has lost a lot. They lost one of their 1000 yard rushers as well, and Maty Mauk has always been an iffy player early in the season. Considering that this is a home game, and so many negative things have happened to Mizzou, I'm going to say that this is a win.

Finally, there's Louisville. I don't really need to explain the other wins not aside from Florida and Mizzou, but I felt that Louisville's football program is at least deserving enough for an explanation of why I believe Kentucky will beat them. There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Louisville on both sides of the ball. Nobody has any clue who the QB will be, and you have to question the offensive line defending whoever that QB is. They lose their star receiver (a top 3 receiver in the entire country), a very good RB, and a lot of their defense. 10 players drafted, Louisville's best in their program's history.
Last year's game a PJCS was close, a dropped interception away from winning that game despite how big of a game their star player was having. A lot of Louisville fans like to discount what Kentucky did defensively to Louisville, but how much of the defense from that game does Kentucky return? A ton of it. How much offense from that game does Louisville return? Well, considering that Parker is gone, those 3 touchdowns and 180 yards next season will be missed for them. Eli Rogers will be busy with the Steelers next season, and won't be able to help Louisville out this time around, so his 5 receptions and 61 yards will be missed, although, he didn't score for them, then again, Parker was the only receiver that Louisville had that did score. The RB Dyer, and the TE Gerald Christian are gone as well. The only returning players that caught a football in that game are Quick and De La C

You give Towles a complete pass and blame Neal Brown and his surrounding players? That is totally inaccurate. Towles has plenty of issues. Two of them being:

- He can't see the field.

- He can't deliver on short and intermediate routes. Numerous times, he could not throw a catchable ball last season for short throws that would have ended up being first downs.


If those two things don't improve a lot, he won't be much better this season. Watch tape of how Jameis Winston threw perfectly catchable short/intermediate throws last season and then compare it to Towles.

Towles has a long way to go if he is ever going to sniff a NFL field.
 
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Did not say it was likely, in fact, going 8-4 regular season is highly unlikely.

But just to play what if:

beat the three turds (3)

Miss State, UL, Vandy, USC = won two of four last year, this year we have to win three of four (3)

Auburn and Florida = big, big home games, have to pull an upset over one of them and finally get over the hump. Everyone focuses on the Gators, but have not beaten Auburn in Lexington since 1966 either (1)

Missouri and Tennessee = an upset possibility, Missouri seems more likely IMO, but have to concede that they have handled us easily the last three years, and have won the SEC East two years running. Tennessee is unlikely, have recruited a lot better than us, have killed us easily 20 or 25 times in the last 30 years, and have the better coach. Sorry, but it is the truth. (1)

Georgia in Athens? Uh, no.

Butch is a better coach than Stoops? Wow, that's a stretch....How do you figure?

UT recruiting is on fire and that's main reason I pick them to win the East. Not because Butch is such a wonderful coach.
 
You give Towles a complete pass and blame Neal Brown and his surrounding players? That is totally inaccurate. Towles has plenty of issues. Two of them being:

- He can't see the field.

- He can't deliver on short and intermediate routes. Numerous times, he could not throw a catchable ball last season for short throws that would have ended up being first downs.


If those two things don't improve a lot, he won't be much better this season. Watch tape of how Jameis Winston threw perfectly catchable short/intermediate throws last season and then compare it to Towles.

Towles has a long way to go if he is ever going to sniff a NFL field.

Was what I said about Neal Brown false? I recall seeing the ball being thrown downfield close to 3 times a game. UK's best game came against Florida, arguably the best pass defense in the SEC, and Towles went off. What did we do different in that game? We threw the ball downfield several times. Actually, every single TD that was scored in regulation in that game was a long-ball. Towles showed the ability to get the ball downfield effectively. Should he have played better at times? Yes, but that same thing could be said about our entire offense, and I believe if UK would have actually tried to stretch the field more frequently, it would have given our guys more room to operate.

Frankly, I'm glad Neal Brown took the coaching job. I'm happy for his success, but I'm happy that we're getting a more aggressive offensive mind in there, especially somebody who is highly touted as a QB coach. I think everybody here saw what Trickett turned into under Dawson, and Dawson has given Towles glowing reviews.

Me and you have differing opinions, that's fine, I just happen to believe that mine is closer to the truth than your "It's not Brown's fault" opinion.
 
Butch is a better coach than Stoops? Wow, that's a stretch....How do you figure?

UT recruiting is on fire and that's main reason I pick them to win the East. Not because Butch is such a wonderful coach.

I answered that previously in this thread a few posts back.
 
I'll just be glad to see Towles actually throwing the ball or handing off to a RB and not being used like Tim Tebow on QB dives.
 
Lots of reasons to be excited! Particularly on offense where the majority of the team are Stoop's guys. I'm really hopeful they will be much improved. If they are then we can really get excited about the O for the next year as most will be returning. We have a QB who despite the team faltering around him still ended up on the leader board for some of the SEC season long stats. He's got formidable size, and can scramble and run if he has to. And we have a highly touted backup ready to step up should he get injured, or not play well.

The D seems much more questionable. Still a lot of pre-Stoop's guys in the depth chart. OTOH they are seniors and hopefully will perform better now in their 3rd year under Stoops and his staff. Except it appears in the secondary where there will be lots of youth and inexperience. I think the Cat's may have to outscore the other team to win some games.

And it looks like I might be able to attend the Auburn or UT games. I guess those might be tough games to get tickets to especially if the Cat's start off say 4-1, but with some effort I suspect it can be done.
 
I answered that previously in this thread a few posts back.
-you didnt answer...you gave an opinion.
Example: BJs cincy teams would likely have given Jokers UK teams trouble...but that is pure conjecture on my part. BJs record against Stoops is more about jimmys/joes than x's/o's.
 
-you didnt answer...you gave an opinion.
Example: BJs cincy teams would likely have given Jokers UK teams trouble...but that is pure conjecture on my part. BJs record against Stoops is more about jimmys/joes than x's/o's.

And you obviously have a different opinion, which is fine. His specific question was "how do you figure", and what I thought I gave was the basis of my opinion, just like every single post in this thread is someone's opinion. No one can "prove" one coach is better than another coach, any more than I can "prove" one girl is better looking than another girl. (But I will also stand by the opinion of our AD, who as I previously stated, am 99% sure called Butch Jones first, before moving on to other candidates, before landing on Mark Stoops)
 
Eh it's always been my view that if you leave it up to the refs you've already lost. Ex: UK/UF 2014, UT/UF 2014


Hmmm it's not up to the refs to win the game it's up to them to call it fairly. Play your best and punch them in the mouth and let the chips fall on the outcome. It's hard to do that when you have lopsided calls.
When refs call roughing the passer all night on ur team while the opposing team is down right holding all night and beating the Recievers up I imagine that plays an outcome in the end. Or do you not agree?
 
You give Towles a complete pass and blame Neal Brown and his surrounding players? That is totally inaccurate. Towles has plenty of issues. Two of them being:

- He can't see the field.

- He can't deliver on short and intermediate routes. Numerous times, he could not throw a catchable ball last season for short throws that would have ended up being first downs.


If those two things don't improve a lot, he won't be much better this season. Watch tape of how Jameis Winston threw perfectly catchable short/intermediate throws last season and then compare it to Towles.

Towles has a long way to go if he is ever going to sniff a NFL field.

Towles was basically a freshman last year and he has big time potential
 
You give Towles a complete pass and blame Neal Brown and his surrounding players? That is totally inaccurate. Towles has plenty of issues. Two of them being:

- He can't see the field.

- He can't deliver on short and intermediate routes. Numerous times, he could not throw a catchable ball last season for short throws that would have ended up being first downs.


If those two things don't improve a lot, he won't be much better this season. Watch tape of how Jameis Winston threw perfectly catchable short/intermediate throws last season and then compare it to Towles.

Towles has a long way to go if he is ever going to sniff a NFL field.

Towles had a long way to go, he has already come a long way. He has the tools, maybe the best around, a lot better athlete at 6' 5" and 240# than a lot of fans give him credit for, I won't be at all surprised if he doesn't improve a lot more this year, it seems he has the work ethic and desire, two big factors to add to his physical talent.

Not sure he can't see the field or not, but he felt it a lot last year, about 30 tackles for loss IIRC. He WILL be a lot better this year if he doesn't improve at all, because he will have a lot better support from the team.
 
Hmmm it's not up to the refs to win the game it's up to them to call it fairly. Play your best and punch them in the mouth and let the chips fall on the outcome. It's hard to do that when you have lopsided calls.
When refs call roughing the passer all night on ur team while the opposing team is down right holding all night and beating the Recievers up I imagine that plays an outcome in the end. Or do you not agree?

Nope but I mean if you don't win it outright you may lose as a result of your reliance on a good call. I saw the game I didn't see many egregious calls other than the non-call for the delay of game.
 
Can't understand why when we're this close to the next season that we can't be happy about Dawson without throwing Brown under a bus. Give it a break the man was handed a seriously short deck with both hands tied behind his back. Brown had some weird playcalling at times but he had a freshmen dominated receiving corps that couldn't run routes, get out of press coverage, block, or get open most of the time. He had a first year starting QB that wasn't seeing the field well enough, made the wrong checks, and abandoned the pocket way too fast. We had no threat at TE, we played 3 RS freshmen on the OL, we lost two of our best receivers for the season and had another so banged up he needed offseason surgury on his shoulder and ankle, and I could go on because there was more.

Some of the QB sneaks were designed but many of them were Patrick panicking and taking off running. We would've thrown deep more if our line could hold their blocks, if our receivers could break free of press coverage, and if Towles stayed in the pocket longer.

Somehow we managed to increase our points per game by 9 which was good enough to be around a top 10 improvement in the country in year two. We're going into year three jacked up about all of the playmakers that were recruited on offense while giving the OC no credit at all for why we are excited about the prospects of the offense. Brown left a really good situation at Texas Tech where he had things rolling only to start from scratch in the hardest conference in America at one of the hardest places to coach in any sport because this is home and he loves this school. Yet a majority of our fans are too nearsighted to see what he did here and give him an ounce of credit.

I agree with the rest of your post but as you can probably tell I didn't agree with trashing Neal. I'm excited about the season and am looking forward to making a big leap forward under Dawson. I hope some UK fans will see it for what it is and not give all the credit to the new guy. As Stoops said at the luncheon in response to Dawson being excited about all the playmakers he has "just be glad you weren't here the first two years"
 
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Agree, I dont join in the downgrading of Neal Brown. Dude recruited a helluvalot of great Kentucky kids on this roster. And judging his offense with what he had to operate with in his 2 years here is completely unfair. Last year it got to a point where the best play available with the lowest risk of blowing up was Towles keeping it up the middle.

awful offensive coordinators don't become D1 head football coaches, folks.
 
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Nope but I mean if you don't win it outright you may lose as a result of your reliance on a good call. I saw the game I didn't see many egregious calls other than the non-call for the delay of game.


Hmm I wasn't even talking about the Florida game. I'm talking about games over the course of 30 yrs against UT.
 
Hmm I wasn't even talking about the Florida game. I'm talking about games over the course of 30 yrs against UT.

Oh. I think over the course of 30 years I have seen bad calls against UK and bad calls against UT. It pretty much balances itself out in the end. I can't say I believe there has been an inordinate amount of bad calls against one program over the other. I think for much of the last 30 years UK has just been terrible and hasn't put themselves in a good position to win games.
 
GREAT post OP. Nice job. I mainly agree with your wins, and Im going to go way out on a limb and predict one more. Its a shocker. Auburn. We get them at home, in our first Thursday night game. That crowd is gonna be INSANE. It will be on par with the South Carolina game last year. Black Unis, chrome helmets, only game on TV in front of the country. Im not the only one saying it either, many analyst are calling it a trap game for the tigers. I think we play balls to the wall, hard hits, and pumped up and we beat them in a barn burner. But, I also only think we get 7 wins, and lose to Missouri in a game we should win. But I like UK in the Auburn game. I think we have 6 wins going into the Louisville game, with a birth at a really good bowl game on the line, and we beat the cards to get it. Watch out for the Auburn game, we have played them close in recent matchups (37 - 34 last time vs cam newton)
 
I am going to quote a statement by our new OC Dawson. He was talking about how he picks his QB recruits. He stated that Accuracy was the most important thing he looks for in a QB. He said that he can teach a QB most things but accuracy is not one of them. Either a QB has it or he doesn't.

My problem with Towles is I am not sure how accurate he is especially in what is the bread and butter of the Air Raid offense which is the short passing game.

Could this be the reason why this QB competition is going into the fall and is there a real chance that Dawson thinks Barker is the more accurate QB and better suited to run his offense?

I just think there has to be a reason that a QB that started every game last season has not already been named the starter.

I have no agenda and only want the QB best suited to get wins for the Cats on the field. I hope it is Towles because of his experience and would hate to having a QB starting with no game experience like Barker but if there is a accuracy problem and accuracy is really the thing that our OC thinks is God given and is something he can not teach to any extent. Is there a chance he pulls the trigger and starts a more accurate QB and that is assuming Barker being a more accurate QB?
 
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