Simmons visited Ohio State a little more than a week ago. Meyer probably heard something positive about the visit, and combined with the recent Fox/Smith offers, is using his deductive reasoning to tell him UK may be souring on Simmons.
That plus perhaps Calipari is more sold on Monk playing the combo guard for UK next year. If Ulis returns, and that's highly probably, Monk could be UK's starting two-guard and UK's back-up point guard. If Cal feels good about landing Fultz or Alkins for the second wing spot (and with another season from Matthews/Mulder), then UK probably only needs two guards if they're the type of guys who can play 30 to 35 minutes/game.
Simmons looks more like a three these days anyhow. He doesn't look like a kid who is elite enough to run an offense at Kentucky.
I think that the notion that Ulis returns being highly probably is way off. I think its highly probable that Ulis is NOT back and here is why. First of all, Cal has said this is Ulis' team which tells me that Cal trust Ulis and his ability and he will have freedom in the offense. With that freedom and great players around him I look for Ulis to really perform this year especially with scoring and distributing the ball. I think he is going to shine.
Last season he was in a back-up role and still asserted himself as the most effective point guard on our roster several times. His game against UL had even Pitino singing his praises. I think this season, as the starter with freedom in the offense we will see even more out of him. I think he will have a great season and the temptation to go pro will be too great to pass up.
Part of me thinks that coming back for a junior season would almost be a bad idea for Tyler. With his size its just another year to expose him in that regard and in a way I feel like it could hurt his stock. Just my opinion, but I think Tyler is a lock to be gone after this season.