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Jay Bilas says No to having NCAA tourney

As of yesterday, there were 5,794 cases in Daegu, South Korea. Of those, 2,304 required hospitalization.

So 40% of the people who caught it required serious medical treatment at a hospital. South Korea has been rapidly converting dorms and training facilities into makeshift hospitals to deal with all of the patients. There were about 2,000 who needed to go to the hospital last week but couldn’t because there was no room for them.

That sounds like the flu to you?


Sounds like fear and panic have taken over the world
 
I hate the coronavirus. It has totally ruined March Madness, the Sweet 16 and pretty much any other large events. Thanks a lot coronavirus and you too China.
 
Sounds like fear and panic have taken over the world

Maybe, maybe not.

But the number of people needing to be hospitalized is a simple fact. South Korea being forced to create makeshift hospitals is a simple fact.

And that sounds like the flu to you?
 
I work in a school. Word is all schools are waiting to see what Fayette County schools do. If they close down, the rest of the state will follow. Could happen as early as Monday. Will probably know more by tomorrow.

I do as well. There's a meeting this morning that should be over by 11:30 central where I think our folks are going to make the call.

The general vibe in the building has been that tomorrow is probably it for us for a while at the rate this is going. I think some nearby schools have already hinted to their teachers to be ready for that, and we usually follow suit whether it's for snow or illness.
 
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I am a doctor. Face it folks. The genie is out of the bottle and it ain't goin' back in. EVERYONE, and I mean everyone, is going to get this bug. So, we need to just get over it. It might even be better to quit all the containment efforts, and just get on with it. Getting through this quickly or slowly is not going to make a dime's worth of difference in who dies and who doesn't.

There is even a legitimate argument that can be made, that it might be BETTER to just have everyone get infected all at once. This would create more quickly, what we call "herd immunity". The mortality rate would remain the same, but after the infection level of about 70% is reached, the remaining 30% would have a greater level of protection. This could in fact, LOWER the overall mortality rate.
 
China is the culprit here. They devised a plan to get rid of Tump. Without a Trump the trade deal will die and we will not be able to defend ourselves, because the Dems will take our guns. It’s world war 3 get ready to defend your home.
 
I am a doctor. Face it folks. The genie is out of the bottle and it ain't goin' back in. EVERYONE, and I mean everyone, is going to get this bug. So, we need to just get over it. It might even be better to quit all the containment efforts, and just get on with it. Getting through this quickly or slowly is not going to make a dime's worth of difference in who dies and who doesn't.

There is even a legitimate argument that can be made, that it might be BETTER to just have everyone get infected all at once. This would create more quickly, what we call "herd immunity". The mortality rate would remain the same, but after the infection level of about 70% is reached, the remaining 30% would have a greater level of protection. This could in fact, LOWER the overall mortality rate.

Why do you believe that there are enough hospital beds and ICU beds to be able to manage this if everyone were to get quick all at once?
 
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I am a doctor. Face it folks. The genie is out of the bottle and it ain't goin' back in. EVERYONE, and I mean everyone, is going to get this bug. So, we need to just get over it. It might even be better to quit all the containment efforts, and just get on with it. Getting through this quickly or slowly is not going to make a dime's worth of difference in who dies and who doesn't.

There is even a legitimate argument that can be made, that it might be BETTER to just have everyone get infected all at once. This would create more quickly, what we call "herd immunity". The mortality rate would remain the same, but after the infection level of about 70% is reached, the remaining 30% would have a greater level of protection. This could in fact, LOWER the overall mortality rate.

No, not everyone is going to get this!

We do not know how widespread it will get in the US , but not everyone will get this

When the weather warms up, there is a chance this slows down big time

I am all for taking major precautions, but to say everyone is going to get this is irresponsible
 
2009 H1N1 - 61 million Americans contracted the virus, 265,000 hospitalized, 12,000 dead. I still can't understand why this reaction is so drastically different from that one (which I barely remember, to be honest).

I'm not the guy yelling this is all a conspiracy, you're all snowflakes, whatever. But the reaction to this is unprecedented.
 
One ray of hope:

The NBA had an easy decision. The rest of the regular season doesn't matter much, and they have a month and a half until REAL playoff basketball. It was a no-brainer for them and they were able to air on the side of caution. Same goes with the NHL.. the next two months doesn't matter. And honestly, you could argue that there are some hidden benefits to suspending for now (players get rest, league ensures no one is sick for playoffs, etc).

The NCAA is upon it's playoffs and with student athletes graduating, it's MUCH harder to just cancel this or postpone it even.

I'm hoping that maybe the NHL/NBA just said "screw it, we don't need the last 20 games", and this isn't as much of an indicator as we thought.
 
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How is canceling the tournament going to help? There’s already going to be no fans present. The players and staff are going to be around each other whether they play or not. It’s just panic.
 
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From what I have read it doesn't seem to have the same affect children and teens unless there are underlying factors.

No, not everyone is going to get this!

We do not know how widespread it will get in the US , but not everyone will get this

When the weather warms up, there is a chance this slows down big time

I am all for taking major precautions, but to say everyone is going to get this is irresponsible
 
Maybe, maybe not.

But the number of people needing to be hospitalized is a simple fact. South Korea being forced to create makeshift hospitals is a simple fact.

And that sounds like the flu to you?

No, not at all:
YTd CV19 deaths in South Korea: 66

Yearly influenza deaths in South Korea:
(This only goes up to 2016, but you can see the yearly increase by going to the link)

2015-16 South korea influenza deaths: 15,485
So let's divide that by 1/4 for a similar CV19 timeline:
You would still have 3871 Influenza deaths to 66 CV19 South Korean deaths in a comparable YTD. And it's safe to assume that SK would have even higher numbers this year with a steady population growth
. https://www.jpmph.org/journal/view.php?number=2041
 
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No, not at all:
YTd CV19 deaths in South Korea: 66

Yearly influenza deaths in South Korea:
(This only goes up to 2016, but you can see the yearly increase by going to the link)

2015-16 South korea influenza deaths: 15,485
So let's divide that by 1/4 for a similar CV19 timeline:
You would still have 3871 Influenza deaths to 66 CV19 South Korean deaths in a comparable YTD. And it's safe to assume that SK would have even more this year with a steady population growth
. https://www.jpmph.org/journal/view.php?number=2041

Deaths and hospitalizations are not the same thing. The number of deaths is irrelevant to my point.
 
People keep sayings it's a matter of when not if they cancel this.

Why on earth would they continue to play these meaningless conference tournaments.

I think they are far off from calling it off completely.
 
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I agree with you that if the NCAA is going to cancel then why waste time and risk anyone getting sick in a conference tournament.

People keep sayings it's a matter of when not if they cancel this.

Why on earth would they continue to play these meaningless conference tournaments.

I think they are far off from calling it off completely.
 
2009 H1N1 - 61 million Americans contracted the virus, 265,000 hospitalized, 12,000 dead. I still can't understand why this reaction is so drastically different from that one (which I barely remember, to be honest).

I'm not the guy yelling this is all a conspiracy, you're all snowflakes, whatever. But the reaction to this is unprecedented.

The reaction may have something to do with who was in the White House in 2009, versus who is there now, and what the media thinks of those two.

Also, in 2009 the President was newly minted, whereas in 2020, the President is up for re-election.

I can tell you that in 2009, my agency purchased Tamiflu for everyone who wanted it. I sat and met with the doctor who gave me instructions, etc. They purchased it and put it in storage, to be released to me if I needed it. They did this despite the fact that there was a shortage.

I didn't meet anyone in my agency who ever asked for or received his Tamiflu.
 
I’ve been saying the same thing. Why the **** are malls, amusement parks, and office buildings still up and running?

It's an obvious and reasonable question. I think the answer is simple. The tournament and other sports venues are watched by hundreds of millions of people who will VISUALLY see huge empty quite stadiums. There is no living rooms watching a live feed of your work or shopping. So this isn't being done to slow down the spread. It's being done to create fear and apprehension in our minds. It's purely for propaganda purposes.
 
It's an obvious and reasonable question. I think the answer is simple. The tournament and other sports venues are watched by hundreds of millions of people who will VISUALLY see huge empty quite stadiums. There is no living rooms watching a live feed of your work or shopping. So this isn't being done to slow down the spread. It's being done to create fear and apprehension in our minds. It's purely for propaganda purposes.

Right it makes absolutely no difference if there's a ball game going on if it really is that serious. It's all to create the illusion of some kind of apocalypse and make people miserable. But you can always just choose not to participate
 
Deaths and hospitalizations are not the same thing. The number of deaths is irrelevant to my point.

Then your point is well, pointless. Do you not think an influenza mortality rate nearly 59 times that of CV19 would have more hospitalizations? Now if your point is that CV19 is being hyped beyond reason and that is putting added pressures on our healthcare system, then I certainly agree with you there.
 
I do as well. There's a meeting this morning that should be over by 11:30 central where I think our folks are going to make the call.

The general vibe in the building has been that tomorrow is probably it for us for a while at the rate this is going. I think some nearby schools have already hinted to their teachers to be ready for that, and we usually follow suit whether it's for snow or illness.
Just found out we’re having a staff day tomorrow and closing down for the next month.
 
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Then your point is well, pointless. Do you not think an influenza mortality rate nearly 59 times that of CV19 would have more hospitalizations? Now if your point is that CV19 is being hyped beyond reason and that is putting added pressures on our healthcare system, then I certainly agree with you there.

I’ll bring this back to the point I was making using Daegu, South Korea as an example.

In Daegu, they have extensively tested the population and confirmed 5,794 cases of COVID-19. Of these, almost 40% required hospitalization (2,304).

If this were merely seasonal flu, then only ~70 of those 5,794 would’ve required hospitalization.

If the ramifications of that difference aren’t plainly obvious to you, then I’m afraid I can’t help you.
 
As of yesterday, there were 5,794 cases in Daegu, South Korea. Of those, 2,304 required hospitalization.

So 40% of the people who caught it required serious medical treatment at a hospital. South Korea has been rapidly converting dorms and training facilities into makeshift hospitals to deal with all of the patients. There were about 2,000 who needed to go to the hospital last week but couldn’t because there was no room for them.

That sounds like the flu to you?
Because we don’t quarantine, isolate, and monitor for the flu.
 
I’ll bring this back to the point I was making using Daegu, South Korea as an example.

In Daegu, they have extensively tested the population and confirmed 5,794 cases of COVID-19. Of these, almost 40% required hospitalization (2,304).

If this were merely seasonal flu, then only ~70 of those 5,794 would’ve required hospitalization.

If the ramifications of that difference aren’t plainly obvious to you, then I’m afraid I can’t help you.
I agree that sounds much worse but what is the criteria for “required hospitalization” it could be that if you were as bad as someone generally is with the flu then you would meet that criteria.
 
I’ll bring this back to the point I was making using Daegu, South Korea as an example.

In Daegu, they have extensively tested the population and confirmed 5,794 cases of COVID-19. Of these, almost 40% required hospitalization (2,304).

If this were merely seasonal flu, then only ~70 of those 5,794 would’ve required hospitalization.

If the ramifications of that difference aren’t plainly obvious to you, then I’m afraid I can’t help you.

From where are you ascertaining 70?
Secondly, are the 2,304 "requiring" hospitalization because of the severity of the cases, or because governmental orders? Most cases here are simply being told to go home and self-quarantine. So no, it's not plainly obvious.
 
Why do you believe that there are enough hospital beds and ICU beds to be able to manage this if everyone were to get quick all at once?

I don't, and there aren't. We are about to discover that our progressive reduction in the number of hospitals and hospital beds over the last several decades, was very foolish. We were repeatedly informed (primarily for financial reasons) that they were not "needed". Well, that is wonderful.......until they are. It is unclear at this point, what if any, strategy would result in the lowest morbidity and mortality for this pandemic. There WILL be a shortage of hospital, and especially ICU, beds until this epidemic is stopped. I am not necessarily advocating for just discontinuing containment efforts, but it COULD be the right thing to do. Some things we just cannot know.
 
Money.

I think local school districts are waiting for a state of emergency to be declared, so as to ensure that they can get funding before they call off.

Our local district has about 15 snow days baked into the calendar, and has only used 1.

It is anticipated that they will soon use a week or two of those, while also using the next few days to prep for "teleschool".
Exactly, in public education, it is those jobs that come first, not those children. Know that.
 
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Why is everyone still working if we can’t have more than 50 people in a basketball arena at one time?
Just received an email from work, we are all to work remotely until the end of the month.

Local schools have been closed since last Friday...Spring Break is next week.
 
I hate to agree with this but it is true. It is smart to play the games without fans in the stands. Not playing them at all is an overreaction.This goes for all sports.
Really?
So tomorrow let’s say that Cal who has been sick learns its covid19. The entire team has been exposed and required to quarantine. UK is essentially out of the tourney before it begins. Then we discover a player on another team is positive for the virus... Now they’re out. Your winner of the 2020 NCAA MBB championship is the last team to become infected and received 3 forfeits along the way. That’s what could happen.
 
2009 H1N1 - 61 million Americans contracted the virus, 265,000 hospitalized, 12,000 dead. I still can't understand why this reaction is so drastically different from that one (which I barely remember, to be honest).

I'm not the guy yelling this is all a conspiracy, you're all snowflakes, whatever. But the reaction to this is unprecedented.
Maybe if public health officials all over the world are telling you something, you should listen.
 
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I heard yesterday that 40% of nurses have kids in school. I did not hear if that was only kids under a certain age. So if you shut down schools, who is going to watch these kids? Can we withstand a 30-40% reduction in nurses and still treat this?
 
Because traveling around the country and closely interacting with other people is exactly how diseases spread.

If no one in Town A has it and all of them stay in town A, they are less likely to get it than if we take 30 people from Town A and fly them to towns B-G and then bring them home.

Sad that such common sense has to be explained to the selfish man-babies who only care about their personal entertainment
 
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how about the WWE says will continue to have Raw and Smackdown also expecting over 100,000 down to Tampa for Wrestlemania

I feel they can definitely work in some virus storylines. Like someone pretends to have the virus, sneezes in their face and pins them for the title while they try to wipe off their face.
 
Really?
So tomorrow let’s say that Cal who has been sick learns its covid19. The entire team has been exposed and required to quarantine. UK is essentially out of the tourney before it begins. Then we discover a player on another team is positive for the virus... Now they’re out. Your winner of the 2020 NCAA MBB championship is the last team to become infected and received 3 forfeits along the way. That’s what could happen.

 
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