Is Mid-Major Basketball Dead?

[KA4Prez]

With the transfer portal allowing P4 schools to go and take whoever they want and football money allowed to be used to get the players with NIL, it feels like the day of the "mid-major" is over.

The Sweet 16 is about to be all P4 schools.

Only New Mexico has a chance to disrupt it.

 

[bbncal02]

With the transfer portal allowing P4 schools to go and take whoever they want and football money allowed to be used to get the players with NIL, it feels like the day of the "mid-major" is over.

The Sweet 16 is about to be all P4 schools.

Only New Mexico has a chance to disrupt it.

And I'd argue that New Mexico isn't a mid major in the truest sense.

No mid Major in the S16 is wild.

 

[KA4Prez]

Well yeah, I mean the Big East, Mountain West, A-10, all aren't "mid majors", but they certainly have a disadvantage from a TV revenue/NIL money standpoint. Two of those three leagues don't even have D1 football.

 

[Fox2monk]

With the transfer portal allowing P4 schools to go and take whoever they want and football money allowed to be used to get the players with NIL, it feels like the day of the "mid-major" is over.

The Sweet 16 is about to be all P4 schools.

Only New Mexico has a chance to disrupt it.

Man Colorado State almost did it. I think we will still have some good ones. All the guys who still get overlooked. Maybe not as many but they will be there. Maybe some guys who need another year at the mid major level team up together.

 

[Emarc]

They have become the happy hunting ground.

 

[HenryMuto]

NIL they lose all their good players

 

[trueblujr2]

Yes and no. The run of mid-major Cinderella’s in the NCAA is likely in its last legs, but with the Portal, fewer HS players will be recruited by the high majors. Or at least they will get spread around more. So more good HS players will wind up at the mid-majors for their first year or two before they transfer up after proving themselves. What you won’t be seeing are those mid-majors having those seasons where they are loaded with upperclassmen who have played together for several years making them deceptively dangerous in the Tourney.

 

[hotelblue]

good point. the nil was rumored to bring parody where one company or booster could cough up something for a stud player, but yeah, once it became a money game (fully and allowed) it’s the big dogs soaking up the talent.

the portal i’m not sure about as far as who is favored.

 

[AJG-15]

Yes, until they regulate the NiL and transfer rules. I think if we continue this way , we might have to a pro college league with power 5 .

Many coaches will be disincentives to develop players at smaller school cause they will leave after a first year.

Something needs to change .

 

[bucsrule8872]

Not a popular idea, I’m sure, but a separate tourney for the P5 schools (SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, and Big East) might be the answer.

 

[Fox2monk]

Not a popular idea, I’m sure, but a separate tourney for the P5 schools (SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, and Big East) might be the answer.

Nah, let’s see what happens, I bet some schools will choke or have bad games still.

 

[jwphelps]

With the transfer portal allowing P4 schools to go and take whoever they want and football money allowed to be used to get the players with NIL, it feels like the day of the "mid-major" is over.

The Sweet 16 is about to be all P4 schools.

Only New Mexico has a chance to disrupt it.

Doesn't look good, just an example, Evansville just lost it's top 3 players to the portal. They were not that good so losing all that scoring will devastate that team from mediocre to horrid.

 

[gharding07]

No double digit seed in the sweet 16. When is the last time that happened!?
Nvm: Forgot about Cal..smh.

 

[Bigblueincincy]

Not sure if this would work but a salary cap?

 

[hotelblue]

No double digit seed in the sweet 16. When is the last time that happened!?

ark is a 10. though they probably should have been an 8 or 9 when fland was cleared. jmho

 

[gharding07]

ark is a 10. though they probably should have been an 8 or 9 when fland was cleared. jmho

Crap you're right!

 

[hotelblue]

Crap you're right!

only cal could take a team like that to a 10 seed lol. although tech could beat them straight up, you know their coach probably isn’t sleeping easy.

 

[Blue_2_the_bone]

I think it’s dead. The portal alone puts it on life support but NIL pulled the plug.

 

[KyCatFan]

Will the portal end up killing the NCAA Tournament as we know it? What made it great was seeing David slay Goliath multiple times in the early rounds and sometimes through to the Final Four. I wonder if interest might go down to the more casual fans that might only follow for the brackets? I didn't watch near as many games as I used to because of the lack of interesting games. So I could see casual fans just looking at final scores and not watching. That is unless they have a team in it.

 

[Oboro95]

Doesn't look good, just an example, Evansville just lost it's top 3 players to the portal. They were not that good so losing all that scoring will devastate that team from mediocre to horrid.

Speaking of Evansville and transfers, I was surprised to see that Humrichous saw so much clock for the Illini this season after one year of modest success at UE. He averaged over 26 minutes per game for Illinois this season! He's a nice player and all, but I would never have expected him to play that much for a Big Ten program with aspirations. That stat really highlights Illinois' lack of depth.

 

[TheAnonymous13]

Yes

 

[KYExtemper]

I'd say yes. WKU struggled to get more than 3,000 fans to games this year and they were coming off an NCAA bid last year. The athletic department there has said they can't compete with the power conference NIL offers and morale and finances aren't in good shape. As an alum, I barely followed this season because I felt like we had no chance.

 

[Usmcincy]

In 3-4 years college basketball will be dominated entirely by the Big 10, SEC, and Duke.

 

[Blue_2_the_bone]

 

[Rockfly78]

And I'd argue that New Mexico isn't a mid major in the truest sense.

No mid Major in the S16 is wild.

We had to see this coming. Remember all those times we would be playing morehead st and wonder how the hell they had a player like Kenneth faried? Or you’d see Ja morant out there with a Murray state jersey on? Well now those kids promptly get scooped up by big time D1 programs. The portal has really widened the talent gap between mid majors and the big boys and NIL has made even harder for the little fish to survive.

But to contradict myself we did have Florida Atlantic and SDSU in the FF last year. So maybe it’s just a weird year. Who knows

 

[JustBlue]

It is going to change but it can survive.

My thoughts on how to do this:

When the tournament expands (and it will expand) they need to make a few adjustments. They need to dump the two 16 seeds playing each other and focus on all the 11 seeds and all the 12 seeds playing. Keep the first four in Dayton and have it feed into the South and East regions then add another site further west that feeds into the Midwest and West side. This would add a high mid-major or possibly two in a winnable game. Four games on Tuesday and four on Wedneaday.

Also, expand the season to 35 games. Pope wants 40 but I think that is too much at first. If you expand to 35 that would add four games to the regular season where a slew of teams can do 2 day holiday tournaments (ala the UKIT) or straight "buy" games that will add money directly to smaller schools. This money would directly help NIL funding. I look at the case of Bellarmine which had a VERY solid basketball program until NIL. Now they can barely compete. If Wright St offers a player $20,000 in NIL moneybit doesn't seem like a ton to us but they can't compete. This might help offset some of that.

Lastly, if you want the NIT to survive and benefit smaller schools then add NIL bonuses to these games the same as the unit system used in the NCAA tournament. Nowhere near as much but give the schools something.

These are just a few ideas.

JB

 

[mc140]

Not a popular idea, I’m sure, but a separate tourney for the P5 schools (SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, and Big East) might be the answer.

No one is going to watch that.

 

[mc140]

I have lost almost all interest in college sports the last couple of years. Football and Basketball have turned into Jucos with new rosters yearly.

 

[BlueSince92]

Imo mid majors will come down from their golden age for a while. But I don't think they're dead. Actually, now that so many P5 schools have the chops to get largely Calipari-type players, I expect P5 schools in general to follow something like a Calipari story arc. Especially the schools who are most successful in this new landscape. I expect they'll reign practically unchallenged for a while, but then get complacent as a result of being able to force Ws through on size and talent alone.

Meanwhile less wealthy schools, especially mid majors, will be struggling to perfect their offenses and defenses enough to compensate for all that firepower. As a result, the most radical and effective new ideas will be picked up and perfected in those schools long before the star-packed schools, which will still be able to muscle through without them. Then in some senses the whole P5 pack will be the new post-'19 Calipari and the mid majors will see their star rise again for a while.

All complete conjecture on my part. But it's based on real factors that I don't think anyone can wish away. Now that I think about it, it all runs pretty parallel to Asimov's Foundation, which, I guess that's an AppleTV show now but I have no idea if they're telling it there in a way that fits this picture, which the books definitely did.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

No I just think every tourney is vastly different. 2 years ago we had SDSU and FAU in a final four.

 

[WayneDougan]

In the 90's only one five seed and one six seed made the FF. The rest were 4 seeds or better. Cinderella didn't really start making runs until the one and done 2000's. We've come full circle.

 

[FLawLesS_NoLe]

Actually surprised all the posts are blaming NIL and money "killing mid majors."

What really happened is conference expansion took place and some conferences took in mid majors and now suddenly what used to be a mid major is part of a power 5. That's what really happened. Look how big each power 5 conference is now, it's ridiculous.

 

[BeaveUKGT]

We had to see this coming. Remember all those times we would be playing morehead st and wonder how the hell they had a player like Kenneth faried? Or you’d see Ja morant out there with a Murray state jersey on? Well now those kids promptly get scooped up by big time D1 programs. The portal has really widened the talent gap between mid majors and the big boys and NIL has made even harder for the little fish to survive.

But to contradict myself we did have Florida Atlantic and SDSU in the FF last year. So maybe it’s just a weird year. Who knows

Two years ago - the 2023 Final Four.

Last year was UConn, Alabama, NC State, and Purdue.

 

[BeaveUKGT]

In the 90's only one five seed and one six seed made the FF. The rest were 1 seeds or better. Cinderella didn't really start making runs until the one and done 2000's. We've come full circle.

Four seeds or better.

 

[NociHTTP]

Will the portal end up killing the NCAA Tournament as we know it? What made it great was seeing David slay Goliath multiple times in the early rounds and sometimes through to the Final Four. I wonder if interest might go down to the more casual fans that might only follow for the brackets? I didn't watch near as many games as I used to because of the lack of interesting games. So I could see casual fans just looking at final scores and not watching. That is unless they have a team in it.

There are A LOT of fans HERE who only follow the Cats for the brackets. They've even said they don't watch games or pay attention until March Madness.

 

[michaeluk26]

Eh, I think it ebbs and flows. What, just in 2022 SDSU and Florida Atlantic made the final four. But brackets have really held up this year.

 

[SkyPrince1]

Actually surprised all the posts are blaming NIL and money "killing mid majors."

What really happened is conference expansion took place and some conferences took in mid majors and now suddenly what used to be a mid major is part of a power 5. That's what really happened. Look how big each power 5 conference is now, it's ridiculous.

What mid major got absorbed into a power conference?
Teams like New Mexico and Colorado St are not mid major's.
Drake is a mid major.
WKU is a mid major.

 

[SkyPrince1]

Didn't really see many standout individual performances from mid major players in this tournament.
Stirtz is the best I seen.
I'm sure they're a few others but really didn't see a coming out party for anyone I can think of.

 

[cats#1again]

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Man that team was loaded. I knew they were good but it shows now

 

[Kantucke]

Mostly, unless they have rich donors