Impact of NIL on Gap Between Group of 5 & Power 4 Conferences

[vhcat70]

Shouldn't be surprising, but WSJ article shows how top players in G5 frequently moving to P4 school exacerbates the quality gap between the two.

"The Wall Street Journal reviewed the 2023 first-team all-conference selections for the five smaller leagues that compete the top tier of Division I. These conferences are the American Athletic, Conference USA, the Mid-American, the Mountain West and the Sun Belt, known collectively as the “Group of Five.”

The impact of the transfer portal is striking: After eliminating those who graduated or departed for the NFL, a whopping 40% of the remaining players with all-conference honors switched to another program. The vast majority of them bolted to a team in the Power Four (the Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big Ten and Southeastern conferences). Even when adding second- and third-team all-conference picks, 36% wound up transferring.

The data shows the extent to which the balance of power has shifted in college football. The smaller conferences have always had a disadvantage compared with their larger peers. Now, they have effectively become a farm system—developing talented players only to lose them to their wealthier competitors. Competing against the likes of Alabama and Michigan was always hard, even before those juggernauts could just snatch up players like books in the campus library.

“Some of those leagues,” former Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher said in a radio interview earlier this year, “they’re becoming glorified junior colleges.”"

https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/college-transfers-power-five-conferences-aee82375?mod=sports_lead_pos2

 

[bballcat4]

I think this trend started with the new transfer rules when players no longer had to sit out a year. NIL just sped up the process by adding $ to the process.

I remember hearing Saban talk about how the new transfer rule would hurt small schools.

I’m happy that players get to experience the American Dream where success is rewarded with opportunity. Ray Davis went from small school to Vandy, to Uk, then to NFL. There’s no doubt the smaller schools and conferences are the new minor league where larger schools will poach their best talent.

 

[K_TIME]

For sure this makes total sense.

1. For UK....we have QB depth for first time every. Largely due to buying off Wimsatt, Beau Allen,etc.. who would never come to UK with a younger QB ahead of them on depth chart...but NIL $$$ changes what motivates you. And I think just about every SEC school has better depth across the board.
2. For college as a whole.....this has to be a disaster. I have long predicted football programs will be closing shop in smaller schools. Why follow schools if you are a fan at places like Tennessee Chattanooga, Western Ky, UAB, etc...heck even Central Michigan, Toledo, etc...why have a team if you're a farm team for your better players jumping to P5.

I still have no idea why football allows this free agency nonsense every year. (even bigger school coaches don't like this concept). So this could go down the path of MLB...big markets get all the talent and smaller markets can't keep their own talent. And as fans get tired of this stuff.....more and more followers will just not even follow and then the money is gone and the pool keeps getting smaller and smaller of fans that follow the sport.

 

[PersianCat387]

For sure this makes total sense.

1. For UK....we have QB depth for first time every. Largely due to buying off Wimsatt, Beau Allen,etc.. who would never come to UK with a younger QB ahead of them on depth chart...but NIL $$$ changes what motivates you. And I think just about every SEC school has better depth across the board.
2. For college as a whole.....this has to be a disaster. I have long predicted football programs will be closing shop in smaller schools. Why follow schools if you are a fan at places like Tennessee Chattanooga, Western Ky, UAB, etc...heck even Central Michigan, Toledo, etc...why have a team if you're a farm team for your better players jumping to P5.

I still have no idea why football allows this free agency nonsense every year. (even bigger school coaches don't like this concept). So this could go down the path of MLB...big markets get all the talent and smaller markets can't keep their own talent. And as fans get tired of this stuff.....more and more followers will just not even follow and then the money is gone and the pool keeps getting smaller and smaller of fans that follow the sport.

While I also dislike it, what I worry about it that this is the model EVERYWHERE, for just about every major profitable sport in the entire world except for the US. Most obvious in international football/soccer, but played out to a lesser extent with other sports. Athletes are able to realize their value very effectively in almost every other sport's globalized farm system. So that pressure to be the same will always be there. I love the old college football of course and hate almost everything about the new system, but I think the fact that it is played out this way almost every where else means that it is probably inevitable here. I guess the one positive we could try to find is that most of those global sports with multiple tiers and farm systems, etc have not died out, they have found a way to maintain their fanbases and markets, it is just a matter of adjusting.

I love college sports but it really is something unique to the US for the most part. Sports at colleges are restricted to clubs for the most part in other countries, with some of the more serious athletes who are in school being focused on the olympic sports rather than team ones. All those guys are in the club and farm systems instead.

 

[The-Hack]

The article does not lie . . . and any MAC or G5 program that visits Kroger should realize their younger players are auditioning for a transfer to Kentucky.

Just the way it is, and frankly, allowing the Top notch G5 players a shot to move up creates a slot for another player at the G5 level. Hardly a catastrophe, and actually a reflection of how free market economics and actual “freedom” is supposed to work.

 

[gamalielkid]

While I also dislike it, what I worry about it that this is the model EVERYWHERE, for just about every major profitable sport in the entire world except for the US. Most obvious in international football/soccer, but played out to a lesser extent with other sports. Athletes are able to realize their value very effectively in almost every other sport's globalized farm system. So that pressure to be the same will always be there. I love the old college football of course and hate almost everything about the new system, but I think the fact that it is played out this way almost every where else means that it is probably inevitable here. I guess the one positive we could try to find is that most of those global sports with multiple tiers and farm systems, etc have not died out, they have found a way to maintain their fanbases and markets, it is just a matter of adjusting.

I love college sports but it really is something unique to the US for the most part. Sports at colleges are restricted to clubs for the most part in other countries, with some of the more serious athletes who are in school being focused on the olympic sports rather than team ones. All those guys are in the club and farm systems instead.

College Football, as all of us now know, is or soon will be about the power 4 conferences. The playoffs will soon be 16 teams- -bd will more than likely be made up of between 64 and 80 teams. It will or has become to “true” professional football what triple A and minor league baseball is to the majors. As crazy as it seems - I wouldn’t be surprised to see colleges become affiliated with professional teams and partially sponsored by them.

Whether you or I like it or not - college football of the last 100 years is truly no more. We will end up embracing it - but will we really commit to it like the past? I think it will drive more fans to the NFL in the long run. College alumni and residents of the location will be the fans of the program and less emphasis on college football will be the final outcome in my opinion. I am an old dinosaur and will not be around to see if I am correct or not. We all have to remember the sport has been changing dramatically for decades - this is just something off the wall to us dinosaurs!

Go Big Blue!

 

[TM2013]

And P5 players who get no PT drop down to G5. Same number of kids getting a scholarship to play college football. Who cares if Old Dominion goes 6-6 instead of 7-5? I certainly don't and can't imagine caring at all.

 

[bthaunert]

IMO, it's going to be similar to 1978 when NCAA football went from Division I to Division I-A (FBS) and Division I-AA (FCS) creating a massive split. Within 4 years of that rule being established, about 50 schools went from Division I to Division I-AA.

 

[vhcat70]

The article does not lie . . . and any MAC or G5 program that visits Kroger should realize their younger players are auditioning for a transfer to Kentucky.

Just the way it is, and frankly, allowing the Top notch G5 players a shot to move up creates a slot for another player at the G5 level. Hardly a catastrophe, and actually a reflection of how free market economics and actual “freedom” is supposed to work.

It does make a P4 school losing to a G5 or lower school ever/even more embarrassing to a program.

 

[The-Hack]

1. For UK....we have QB depth for first time every. Largely due to buying off Wimsatt, Beau Allen,etc.. who would never come to UK with a younger QB ahead of them on depth chart

Yeah, we have QB depth, but (more??) than half of our O-line is/are transfers.

We are fortunate in our SEC location. Our NIL may trail many, but we have not been hurting for quality transfers.

If I were Stoops, I would quietly assign an assistant to MAC schools, alone. Watch every game, by film, YouTube, etc.

Talking players to come a couple hundred miles South for a little pocket change is likelier easier than getting them to move East/West, or up from the Deep South.

We have proximity and the SEC brand, unlike any other SEC program. We need to (and with Stoops/Marrow have been).

 

[The-Hack]

I think it will drive more fans to the NFL in the long run. College alumni and residents of the location will be the fans of the program and less emphasis on college football will be the final outcome in my opinion. I am an old dinosaur and will not be around to see if I am correct or not.

I am 61 and getting to be the old dinosaur, but let’s look at the whole picture.

Will Levis, Wandale Robinson, Dare Rosenthal and Jaquez Jones all came to us in 2021, actually just over three years ago, each using the immediate transfer portal and NIL as some part of their decision to transfer to UK.

And we win ten games with them.

This old dinosaur hauled his arse to Florida for the bowl game, and will, again, if we are so fortunate.

Then, in 2023 we did something that I am quite certain we had never done before: we sold out our FCS game (EKU) without a massive giveaway to the military or first responders.

Yes, college football is changing, but on any given Saturday, it looks pretty much the same on every college campus.

In 2021, when Levis had enough time to throw a TD to Wandale Robinson, as a result of Dare Rosenthal shutting down the blind side rush, and when Jaquez Jones broke up UF’s last passing attempt, the thought of how they got to campus did not cross my mind.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Not surprising. I also couldnt care less. The power 4 (really power 2.5 as acc is a half and little "big" 12 is a joke ) is where it's at.

 

[The-Hack]

Another thought: are the G5 schools not witnessing essentially the same “drain” that the better P5 schools have suffered for decades?

Do you remember those amazing Senior Class plays turned in Jamin Davis, Tim Couch, DeWayne Robertson, Will Levis and Wandale Robinson?

Oh, those guys all turned down their last year of eligibility for millions from the NFL.

Enjoy watching Walker this season: he’s a likely Top 10 draft selection, and is very likely gone.

These losses are no more taxing on us in the top third of the P5 than are transfers from the G5 to us . . . and it is based on the same philosophy of talent rising to the top, and free enterprise considerations.

 

[The-Hack]

Not surprising. I also couldnt care less. The power 4 (really power 2.5 as acc is a half and little "big" 12 is a joke ) is where it's at.

Uhhh, yeah, it’s a little bit hard for me to shed a tear for the “rich getting richer,” when we are clearly running in the “rich/richer” group.

Yes, there are some schools being punished pretty badly: Washington State and Oregon State are all that is left of the old PAC 12, and no one wants them in a mega conference.

U of L and others late to the P5 pool might be left out when all is done, and the ACC inevitably goes away.

Thank God we’ve gotten our football act together, during these tumultuous times. It is the driver of all this movement, and we (fortunately) find ourselves squarely in the Top 25/30 programs by any measurement. I do not see the SEC shedding anyone: and if that were ever mentioned, only Vandy might have problems.

The “property” that is UK sports looks much more attractive when “10-3,” is a more common recent outcome in football than “3-9.”

 

[270Cat]

With the new gap in TV revenue, over time, the Power 2 will be picking away the studs from the other two “power” conferences. They will become glorified G5 conferences, unless something major happens.

 

[gamecockcat]

I believe in the not too distant future, there will be a huge number of non-P4 schools going to FCS. Fewer scholarships, much less expense involved and the fans can still enjoy good college football. If, for instance, all of the MAC schools decided to go to FCS, would their fans revolt? I seriously doubt it. They'd still be playing many of the same schools they do now (especially conference schools), would have an infinitely better chance of reaching the playoffs and playing for a championship. Do No. Dakota State fans feel any less pride in their football program than a P5 team if they win the FCS championship? I wouldn't think so.

If the 'major' schools break off and let's say there are 64 teams - does the bowl system disappear? 16 team playoff, like FCS, wouldn't leave too many teams left to play in bowl games. Certainly not the 35+ that exist now.

I would assume that college basketball and baseball won't be too far behind in separating the big schools who can afford generous NIL and million dollar salaries for assistant coaches from those schools that can't (or choose not to do so).

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

For sure this makes total sense.

1. For UK....we have QB depth for first time every. Largely due to buying off Wimsatt, Beau Allen,etc.. who would never come to UK with a younger QB ahead of them on depth chart...but NIL $$$ changes what motivates you. And I think just about every SEC school has better depth across the board.
2. For college as a whole.....this has to be a disaster. I have long predicted football programs will be closing shop in smaller schools. Why follow schools if you are a fan at places like Tennessee Chattanooga, Western Ky, UAB, etc...heck even Central Michigan, Toledo, etc...why have a team if you're a farm team for your better players jumping to P5.

I still have no idea why football allows this free agency nonsense every year. (even bigger school coaches don't like this concept). So this could go down the path of MLB...big markets get all the talent and smaller markets can't keep their own talent. And as fans get tired of this stuff.....more and more followers will just not even follow and then the money is gone and the pool keeps getting smaller and smaller of fans that follow the sport.

Transferring up was always a thing, then immediate eligibility hit, which is a bigger factor imo. Even with NIL a kid wouldn't automatically bail on his team if he had to sit a year, just my opinion.

Now the depth thing, overall the depth is probably better, but the teams that recruited well probably isn't.

 

[satcheluk]

Shouldn't be surprising, but WSJ article shows how top players in G5 frequently moving to P4 school exacerbates the quality gap between the two.

"The Wall Street Journal reviewed the 2023 first-team all-conference selections for the five smaller leagues that compete the top tier of Division I. These conferences are the American Athletic, Conference USA, the Mid-American, the Mountain West and the Sun Belt, known collectively as the “Group of Five.”

The impact of the transfer portal is striking: After eliminating those who graduated or departed for the NFL, a whopping 40% of the remaining players with all-conference honors switched to another program. The vast majority of them bolted to a team in the Power Four (the Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big Ten and Southeastern conferences). Even when adding second- and third-team all-conference picks, 36% wound up transferring.

The data shows the extent to which the balance of power has shifted in college football. The smaller conferences have always had a disadvantage compared with their larger peers. Now, they have effectively become a farm system—developing talented players only to lose them to their wealthier competitors. Competing against the likes of Alabama and Michigan was always hard, even before those juggernauts could just snatch up players like books in the campus library.

“Some of those leagues,” former Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher said in a radio interview earlier this year, “they’re becoming glorified junior colleges.”"

https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/college-transfers-power-five-conferences-aee82375?mod=sports_lead_pos2

If I'm a mid major school, I'm going after the lower 4/high 3 star guys and telling them to come see the field as a true freshman, rather than sitting and developing without seeing the field or getting paid too much and then they can transfer out after 2-3 years and and rake it in from the transfer portal. I don't' have any data to back this up, but anecdotally, it would seem, 2 year starters from mid majors rae getting paid a premium to fill roster gaps at rich schools, so probably get paid more than the guys who's been there 2 years already and hasn't cracked the rotation yet.

 

[K_TIME]

Transferring up was always a thing, then immediate eligibility hit, which is a bigger factor imo. Even with NIL a kid wouldn't automatically bail on his team if he had to sit a year, just my opinion.

Now the depth thing, overall the depth is probably better, but the teams that recruited well probably isn't.

Agreed....but NCAA is under no Supreme court decisions to allow the transfer without sitting out a year. Why are we keeping that rule when vast majority of coaches are arguing they don't like it?

 

[satcheluk]

For sure this makes total sense.

1. For UK....we have QB depth for first time every. Largely due to buying off Wimsatt, Beau Allen,etc.. who would never come to UK with a younger QB ahead of them on depth chart...but NIL $$$ changes what motivates you. And I think just about every SEC school has better depth across the board.
2. For college as a whole.....this has to be a disaster. I have long predicted football programs will be closing shop in smaller schools. Why follow schools if you are a fan at places like Tennessee Chattanooga, Western Ky, UAB, etc...heck even Central Michigan, Toledo, etc...why have a team if you're a farm team for your better players jumping to P5.

I still have no idea why football allows this free agency nonsense every year. (even bigger school coaches don't like this concept). So this could go down the path of MLB...big markets get all the talent and smaller markets can't keep their own talent. And as fans get tired of this stuff.....more and more followers will just not even follow and then the money is gone and the pool keeps getting smaller and smaller of fans that follow the sport.

I keep seeing you write that you can't understand why college football "allows" this to happen, but they have no legal basis to stop it. SCOTUS ruled against them and hinted if they came back, they'd really be sorry. Only Congress can fix this, unless they make them employees, so that they collectively bargain. TBH, I think NIL and free agency is a great opportunity for UK football. If we can just get NIL a bit stronger, we can bring in a few more studs which would put us solidly in the upper half of the league.