Illinois now a 2.5 pt favorite after UK opening as 1.5 pt favorite
- Thread starter ukfan1622
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1 pt swing isn't much to worry about. Just normal money moving.
Now the other night there was a game that went from +2.5 to -4.5. I can't recall who that was but I was shocked at such a huge swing in just a short time.
Now the other night there was a game that went from +2.5 to -4.5. I can't recall who that was but I was shocked at such a huge swing in just a short time.
I don't think I'm gonna worry about 1 point. Don't try to figure out Vegas. They work in ways outside of us normal humans.
Illinois played out of its mind the other night and we didn’t turn it on until midway through the second half
People see this and bet Illinois. I see it and think Kentuckys got a better shot today
People see this and bet Illinois. I see it and think Kentuckys got a better shot today
I'm sure that was a joke. Phat Adams was in Lexington yesterday doing the Wisconsin/BYU game. I mean I guess he could have hopped a flight up to MWaukee, but we've never had all three of the worst refs on earth at the same time.
Okay that explains it; Kentucky isn't missing a player, just playing 5 vs 8.
I think he was responding to my post about a game the other night swinging massively.
I bet Illinois to cover and then the points moved up because my bet was so large it moved the spread. The spread moved because generally Vegas wants even money on each side, and my bet was huge on Illinois to cover adding too much weight to that side causing it to be uneven money on each side of the line.
Illinois should be favored by 4.5 by my numbers if you ignore the whole season and look at Kentucky since Robinson gone and Illinois with their full team back and how both teams played down the stretch for the season.
That said it's a simple game, if kentucky shoots well from 3, and Illinois doesn't, Kentucky wins.
Illinois should be favored by 4.5 by my numbers if you ignore the whole season and look at Kentucky since Robinson gone and Illinois with their full team back and how both teams played down the stretch for the season.
That said it's a simple game, if kentucky shoots well from 3, and Illinois doesn't, Kentucky wins.
Don't think Vegas gives 2 craps about that.
I meant a bigger national fan following. Therefore the betting amount from non-regular bettors that just want to bet on their team(which is a bigger part of the pool during March Madness) should favor UK, not Illinois..
No, but if everyone in BBN bet and everyone in the Illini bet then it wouldn't be that way. All this means is people are betting for Kentucky to win is all.
They care about the bets being equal on both sides. The line movement means a lot more money was being bet on Illinois.
We win this game by 10 or more. I have watched them play a lot this year and not impressed. Hoping we can keep this going as I would like a shot at Duke. We could beat them again.
Illinois has two potential future lottery picks and a very balanced scoring attack. Similar to UK when we were at our best, their 1-5 are all threats to score and go off for a big game. And they are good at rebounding the shots they do miss. On the flipside, we don't have any lottery talent, we struggle defensively, our best option at point guard is playing with one shoulder, and the offensive advantage we once had has been neutralized somewhat thanks to having to replace two graduate senior scorers that are out with season-ending injuries with three non-OAD freshmen.
Our kenpom stats are almost identical. All things being equal, I give the edge to the healthier team with more continuity and pro talent. One thing that gives me a bit of hope is Illinois doesn't look to have overwhelming athleticism (I actually thought Xavier was scarier in that regard), and I think we can win this one if we're having a good shooting night, avoid turnovers, and stay out of foul trouble. Anyone thinking it should be a guaranteed win just because of our seed number is fooling themselves, though. I just don't think this will be an easy win at all.
Florida was -9.5. They won by 2. Vegas is good at sitting lines to make money. That doesn't mean we lose
I’m sorry, didn’t mean to. I needed to be more obvious I was being facetious.
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