ADVERTISEMENT

How Hunter is an upgrade over Oscar (Vecenie/Tucker) The Athletic

J

JST390-2

Junior
Nov 1, 2015
2,204
3,858
113
Florida
  • Like
Reactions: BlueSince92 and entropy13
No one can accuse John Calipari of going quietly. With just one SEC tournament win and one NCAA Tournament win since 2019, the 64-year-old Hall of Fame coach badly needs a breakthrough next season, and he’s recruiting like a man who knows it. Looking for some experience to pair with his No. 1-ranked incoming freshman class, and possibly needing to replace two-time All-American Oscar Tshiebwe, Calipari is now hot on the trail of The Athletic’s No. 1-ranked transfer: 7-foot-1 center Hunter Dickinson, arguably the most accomplished player ever to enter the portal.

The former Michigan star, a three-time All-Big Ten pick and 2021 consensus second-team All-American who averaged 18.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 1.8 blocks last season, will take an official visit to Kentucky on Monday. He’s on an official visit to Kansas Friday and will take another official visit to Villanova next weekend. Dickinson, who played high school basketball at DeMatha Catholic near Washington, D.C., has already taken unofficial visits to Maryland and Georgetown. On his podcast Thursday, Dickinson explained how the Calipari courtship heated up: he flew on a private jet to meet Dickinson at a small private airport in Michigan, where they talked for about two hours on Tuesday.

“I told him I don’t think I need to visit there because I took a visit in high school. It’s not like I’m not interested, but that’s really the only reason why a visit was never scheduled,” Dickinson said. “But once we talked about some things and then he mentioned they got a new strength coach (last summer) — and that’s something that’s really important to me — I’m like, OK, I might as well take a visit there.”

There is one catch in Kentucky’s pursuit of Dickinson: He’s only coming if Tshiebwe, who is currently testing the NBA Draft waters, leaves. Although Tshiebwe remains uncertain about whether to stay or go, The Athletic has learned that he recently gave Calipari his blessing to build the roster as if he’ll be gone.

“We talked about that situation,” Dickinson said on his podcast, “because that has a lot to do with me even being interested in them. I don’t really want to say what was said, don’t want to say what (Tshiebwe) is doing, because that’s his business, but obviously whatever we talked about was good enough for me to take a visit, so I guess that’s news right there.”

Swapping Tshiebwe for Dickinson would be quite a power move. Tshiebwe is a more dominant rebounder (than every college player in almost half a century), but Dickinson is the better offensive player and probably a slight upgrade defensively. Tshiebwe is a faith-forward gentle giant, Dickinson a brash trash-talking willing villain. Trading one for the other would at once provide some continuity and a fairly major personality shift.

But what about schematically and stylistically? How might Dickinson fit with the Wildcats? And how would it be different than Kentucky has been with Tshiebwe in the middle over the last few years?
 
  • Like
Reactions: jrm693, postmodernprimate and Ukgold
Let’s break down the advantages Dickinson would bring to Kentucky on offense and defense, and how Dickinson would impact the Cats’ roster.

How Dickinson could improve Kentucky’s offense​

For years, Kentucky fans have complained about the rudimentary nature of Calipari’s offense. His bigs post up, and they crash the glass. They don’t make decisions out on the perimeter to help invert the offense and put pressure on defense. But was this a chicken-or-an-egg problem? Is Calipari doing this because he doesn’t believe his bigs are capable of such skills? Or are his big men capable of it, and Calipari is limiting them? We’ve seen examples of both through the years. Karl-Anthony Towns developed into one of the best shooting centers in history, and he attempted just eight 3s in his season at Kentucky. DeMarcus Cousins became a face-up five.

But then others like Tshiebwe weren’t capable of doing more. He does a lot well — including crashing the glass and creating second-chance opportunities — but he drastically limits the creativity that any offense can employ. Any time Kentucky passed him the ball outside of 15 feet, it resulted in an inefficient midrange jumper (Tshiebwe made just 26 of his 71 jumpers last season, 36.6 percent), a re-set with a pass out to a guard, or a turnover because he couldn’t put the ball on the deck. If the Cats tried to short-roll him when teams were blitzing ball screens, he couldn’t take advantage of 4-on-3 opportunities. Post-ups weren’t quite as bad, but they weren’t an efficient option. The Wildcats only averaged 0.9 points per possession on plays that started with Tshiebwe post-ups and ended with either a shot, a pass out, a foul, or a turnover. Tshiebwe can create shots on the glass by playing with more energy than everyone else, but he can’t create his own shot when he has the ball or create ones for his teammates.

This is a great example. In Kentucky’s second-round NCAA Tournament loss, Kansas State was very comfortable putting two players on the ball and forcing the pass to Tshiebwe. He catches this bail-out pass from Antonio Reeves and clearly has an advantage. He smartly puts the ball on the deck to pressure the defense, forcing Markquis Nowell to help from the wing while Nae’Quan Tomlin recovers into the play. The right read here is the world’s easiest kickout pass to CJ Fredrick in perfect shooting position. Instead of making that read, Tshiebwe struggles to pick up the ball, and allows Tomlin to recover, not taking advantage of the 4-on-3 situation. Tshiebwe then tries to throw a pass in between three Kansas State defenders to a cutting Chris Livingston. The pass gets angrily swatted backwards by Tomlin, and it starts a fast break the other way.
 
  • Like
Reactions: chroix
Simply put, Tshiebwe limits your options offensively, and also cramps the spacing because teams don’t really guard him outside of 15 feet. Dickinson would change that drastically. We’re well aware that Tshiebwe averaged more assists per game than Dickinson (1.6 versus 1.5). But the usage and skills are just drastically different. Dickinson has the versatility to allow you to play five-out offense, or you can play four around one with him on the interior.

Michigan’s offense was largely built around how skilled Dickinson was with the ball in his hands away from the rim and how versatile his game has become. The team’s primary offensive set was what is referred to as a “zoom” action, where a ballhandler or shooter would fly up from the corner into a dribble-handoff from Dickinson standing at the top of the key. He’d hand the ball off and either short roll into the free-throw line area, pop behind the 3-point line, or roll all the way to the rim either creating a target for his guard or finding a body to post-up depending on how the defense played the action.

Here’s an example actually of a counter off of a zoom action. Dickinson catches in the high post with Kobe Bufkin standing in the corner. Dug McDaniel goes down to set the pin-down screen for Bufkin to come up to the top of the key. But as Bufkin realizes Rutgers is overplaying it, he cuts backdoor and Dickinson hits him for the open layup. Look at the zip on that pass and just how much more comfortable he looks than Tshiebwe in those settings. This type of playmaking would open up Kentucky’s offense.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BlueSince92 and chroix
Dickinson’s shooting would also open things up for the young guards coming to Lexington next year. Dickinson shot 42 percent on about two 3-point attempts per game this past season, and he has continually shown some real improvement with his touch. There are a number of versatile ways you can utilize this skill. He’s an effective pick-and-pop big, having hit nine jumpers off that action last season. He’ll hit trailer 3s in transition if his athletic guards get into the paint and need an option on a kickout. Or, he can just spot up behind the arc and clear the paint.

If the Wildcats are serious about modernizing the offense, valuing the ability to open up the paint, and creating more driving opportunities for guards — and thus more potential catch-and-shoot 3-point opportunities on kickouts — Dickinson would really help as he shows here in an early pick-and-pop against Illinois. Dain Dainja plays in a drop and cuts off the paint. Frankly, he’s probably too deep given how quickly the recovery over the screen is. But Dickinson is waiting, and hits the 3. If Dickinson keeps doing that, the result is that teams have to adjust, and you have to end up doing something different like switching the action at the top in order to get a body on him from distance.
 
Incoming freshmen guards DJ Wagner and Robert Dillingham are terrific, electric drivers of the ball. However, they’re smaller guards. If the paint is cluttered by someone like Tshiebwe, it’s hard to see how they’re going to find much success as finishers in the paint. There will always be a big there waiting. There will always be a help defender looking to slide off of his man. But if you play a lineup around Wagner that includes something like Antonio Reeves, Chris Livingston, Justin Edwards and Dickinson, it’s hard to see whom you help off of in that scenario. The likely option is probably Edwards, but you run the risk then of Edwards, an intuitive and smart cutter, being available on the baseline for a dump off into the dunker spot. That becomes less likely with Tshiebwe, though, because there will always be an extra body in the paint, gumming up the works.

Kentucky getting a spacing big like this who can operate at the elbows as a distributor helps ease the burden of playmaking on the freshman guards. It helps clear the paint for guards to attack and drive. But more than that, it also gives them the kind of bail-out post option that the team has lacked in the Tshiebwe era. We can talk all we want about Dickinson’s perimeter play and how effective it was. But Dickinson is still at his best on the block, where you can throw the ball down to him and let him make something happen. He had a 57.5 true-shooting percentage on post plays last season, a strong number given that almost all of those are halfcourt chances. He also finished fifth nationally in points per game off of post-ups, averaging 8.3. Tshiebwe averaged just 5.3 points per game on post-ups, and was less efficient on top of being more turnover prone when he got the ball down on the block, per Synergy. Dickinson has an actual post game, and plays with poise on the block.

What you lose by replacing Tshiebwe with Dickinson is rebounding. Particularly, you lose an awful lot of extra possessions. Tshiebwe was the second-best offensive rebounder in the country last year behind Zach Edey. He grabbed rebounds on 19.6 percent of Kentucky’s misses. Dickinson is much less voracious on the glass, grabbing rebounds on about 8.3 percent of his team’s misses. Essentially, we can compute what kind of difference that makes in terms of offensive production. If Tshiebwe is going to grab about 5.8 offensive rebounds versus Dickinson grabbing just about 2.5 (that’s about the ballpark we’d be talking based on minutes, their averages, and percentage of Kentucky’s misses last season), that’s something in the vicinity of Kentucky losing out on about 3.5 points per game in terms of offensive production, or nearly five points per 100 possessions. It’s an enormous figure, and it’s why Tshiebwe does have real value to a team offensively. It’s how, even with Tshiebwe’s deficiencies, Kentucky still finished second in the SEC in scoring. His rebounding is that valuable.

But everything else Dickinson brings to the table is more valuable. He would make Kentucky much more difficult to scout for on a game-to-game basis. With Tshiebwe, if you can really focus on shutting down the offensive glass with him and send bodies to the rim, you can shut off a significant amount of the team’s offense. Against Dickinson, you have to shut him down on the block. And you have to shut down his ability to make passing reads out on the perimeter. And you have to account for his shooting. And then because of the shooting, you have to account for the amount of space the guards have to attack. It makes Kentucky much more multiple if Calipari is willing to modernize the offense.

That latter point is always a question. But Dickinson gives them a real chance to do so.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bfawns, postmodernprimate and chroix

How Dickinson could upgrade UK’s defense​

Tshiebwe was a finalist for the National Defensive Player of the Year award last year in an egregious voting decision. Sure, Tshiebwe got action stats like rebounds, steals, and blocks. But Tshiebwe got a steal on about 3 percent of Kentucky possessions, and got a block on another 3 percent. What happened in the other 94 percent of Kentucky defensive possessions?

Unfortunately for Kentucky, Tshiebwe was a sieve in pick-and-roll coverage. He’s not mobile enough to play at the level of the screen and recover with any sort of force. He’s not big enough and doesn’t take up enough space to be an impactful rim protector in drop coverage scenarios. And you absolutely can’t hard-hedge with him and expect him to recover effectively into plays. In total, Kentucky was slightly worse on defense this season when Tshiebwe was on the court, and this came in arguably the worst defensive season of the Calipari tenure in Lexington.

The Kansas State game was a prime example. In the second half, Kansas State coach Jerome Tang found the fatal flaw, and just repeatedly picked at the scab over and over again on the team’s way to the Sweet 16. Particularly, the team ran a ton of side ball screens to isolate Tshiebwe toward one side of the court so that Kentucky couldn’t pre-switch him with another defender. Here’s one where Nowell just simply turns the corner on Tshiebwe and finishes at the rim.
 
That stuff happened all too often. Tshiebwe is also an exceedingly poor defender around the basket in terms of his weak-side rim protection and rotational instincts. Regularly, he’s late on rotations. He often decides to not rotate and instead box out. But here’s the problem with doing that: there’s no reason to box out if the opponent is going to make the shot. According to Pivot Analysis last season, Kentucky opponents shot 45.4 percent at the rim when Tshiebwe was off the court. Do you know what they shot when he was on it? Try a resoundingly enormous 55.4 percent. He just does not provide an impediment for players around the basket.

Here are some clips from a game against Vanderbilt. You’ll see Tshiebwe commit every defensive sin for a center imaginable, from getting lost in no-man’s land in drop, to getting sealed off around the rim by a big getting in his way to clear a path to the basket, to choosing not to rotate in order to try to position for a rebound.

 
  • Like
Reactions: chroix
Dickinson is also limited on defense. He is perhaps less mobile than Tshiebwe. But Dickinson’s ability to simply take up space is somewhat valuable in the college game — especially if you have defenders who are mobile around him. Overall, Michiganactually finished second in the Big Ten in defensive rating in conference games. Another thing that will give Kentucky fans hope is that when Michigan played Dickinson with freshman defender Tarris Reed, the team also only allowed 103 points per 100 possessions. Given that Aaron Bradshaw is currently committed to UK, and that we know Calipari’s predilection toward playing two bigs, the ability for Michigan to have a relatively solid defensive rating with Dickinson and another big is important.

The big thing with Dickinson is that you at least have a very real answer on how you play with him on the court. You can play him in drop, and he’ll take up an enormous amount of space as long as you have guards that are willing and capable of fighting over the top of screens and recovering into plays. Dickinson has improved in this regard positionally over the years. He struggled a bit as a sophomore out of ball-screen defense, but as a junior he clearly worked on his angles and has gotten better at swallowing up drivers. Here’s a good example of him navigating a few actions against Michigan State. Watch the way he communicates through the initial horns set and the rejected screen here. He swallows up Tyson Walker the first time but still gets strung out into an isolation against him. Even then, the footwork looks awkward, but Dickinson forces him into a contested midrange jumper.
 
Michigan did play him a few different coverages even by the end of the year. Sometimes, if they wanted to force the ball out of a player’s hands as the decision-maker, the Wolverines would hedge with Dickinson like they did against Illinois’ Terrence Shannon Jr. Against Ohio State, they played Dickinson a little closer to the level of the screen. But Dickinson is not a particularly under-control recovery player. Take this play from Northwestern, where he has close out quickly to Brooks Barnhizer. Barnhizer sees him coming from a mile away, puts the ball on the deck and gets to the rack for an easy finish.
 
Penn State also had real success against Dickinson playing small with guys like Seth Lundy and Andrew Funk as way undersized bigs who would hit him with ghost screens and slip actions to get away from him momentarily to get open 3s. That’s the way you beat him. If you have rim-running or post bigs, Dickinson manages himself well. It’s when you force him to close out to shooters that will be an issue. The good news for Dickinson? The SEC does not project to have a ton of those guys next season. Liam Robbins will certainly be gone, and there is a good chance Kobe Brown at Missouri will be, too. Only LSUwith Will Baker and Arkansas with Trevon Brazile really project to have the kind of players who can hurt Dickinson out in space as bigs.

We shouldn’t pretend that Dickinson will make an All-Defense team in the SEC. He’s not a significant shot blocker. But positionally, he’s actually OK. Unless he’s closing out onto a shooter, he’s not likely to break down. Michigan was a top-five defense in the country when he was a freshman on the interior. Dickinson has improved, and he’ll allow you to have a real plan and a defensive identity as a drop coverage team that can adjust from there if necessary.

The roster fit and scholarship situation​

Assuming Tshiebwe leaves and Dickinson comes, Kentucky will have a deep and enormous frontcourt — if nobody else gets scared off by the new guy. There’s 7-foot freshman Bradshaw, a consensus top-10 recruit, and 6-11 sophomore Ugonna Onyenso, the former five-star who reclassified and spent last season as Tshiebwe’s understudy. And 6-9, 235-pound rising senior Lance Ware, a role-playing enforcer so far in his career, is expected to return. Former McDonald’s All-American forward Daimion Collins is expected to transfer closer to home in Texas after his father’s death last season.

Bradshaw has made it clear he prefers to play as a stretch-four, meaning he and Dickinson could in theory play together. Bradshaw is impressively skilled for his size and has demonstrated a deft shooting touch in limited opportunities to let it fly. He’s also one of the best shot-blocking big men in the 2023 class and could provide some of the rim protection Dickinson lacks.
 
Onyenso stands to be most affected if UK adds the towering Michigan man, since he flirted with the transfer portal himself but was promised real playing time next season and announced his return to the Cats. Onyenso was an elite shot blocker in high school and averaged 5.8 blocks per 40 minutes in a limited role last season, but he’s raw offensively and would undoubtedly take a back seat to Dickinson. If Kentucky ends up with either Tshiebwe back or Dickinson transferring in, Calipari might have a tough time convincing Onyenso there’s enough minutes to go around. That shouldn’t stop the Wildcats from pursuing the best player in the portal, but it’s an inherent risk.

As for the rest of the roster, the Cats are still waiting on official word from guard Reeves and Livingston, who are testing the draft waters. Fredrick put his name in the transfer portal on Friday. As good as the incoming recruiting class is, college basketball keeps reminding us that older is better these days. Calipari would be wise to include as many veteran anchors with those one-and-done talents as he can manage, and Dickinson is one helluva hefty anchor.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ron Mehico and delk4three
We're trading one defensive liability for another. Oscar was consensus national player of the year and massively produced for the program. I can't get on board with pushing him out to bring in another, slower yet taller big. Instead should just roll with onyenso and oscar

Calipari cannot continue to rebuild completely every single year. We have no continuity and it's killing us
 
  • Like
Reactions: michaeluk26, Wildcats1st, K_TIME and 4 others
bigblueinsanity said:
We're trading one defensive liability for another. Oscar was consensus national player of the year and massively produced for the program. I can't get on board with pushing him out to bring in another, slower yet taller big. Instead should just roll with onyenso and oscar

Calipari cannot continue to rebuild completely every single year. We have no continuity and it's killing us
Click to expand...
 
From everything I've heard about him, he's a cancer in the locker room. Head case who wants everything to be about him. No thanks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Cowtown Cat
I'd take Oscar over Dickinson 7 days a week. The fact that Calipari and his staff can't spell X or O does not make Oscar any less a dominant college basketball player. Oscar has overcome the handicap the coaching staff has dumped on his back to become a back to back All-American.
 
  • Like
Reactions: treyforuk and Cowtown Cat
JST390-2 said:
View embedded media
Click to expand...

Alot better at defense doesn't mean he isn't a defensive liability. I just don't see the wisdom in pushing out a national player of the year for a guy that has mostly the same issues, but taller.

Imo Cals at this bizarre stage in his career where most guys just can't stand playing for him for more than a year or two. That's why we see constant roster turnover. Annually rebuilding the roster from scratch just isn't going to get it done in today's college basketball
 
  • Like
Reactions: treyforuk and Cowtown Cat
bigblueinsanity said:
We're trading one defensive liability for another. Oscar was consensus national player of the year and massively produced for the program. I can't get on board with pushing him out to bring in another, slower yet taller big. Instead should just roll with onyenso and oscar

Calipari cannot continue to rebuild completely every single year. We have no continuity and it's killing us
Click to expand...
Apparently, you did not read the entire article
 
  • Like
Reactions: IbnSaran
bigblueinsanity said:
Alot better at defense doesn't mean he isn't a defensive liability. I just don't see the wisdom in pushing out a national player of the year for a guy that has mostly the same issues, but taller.

Imo Cals at this bizarre stage in his career where most guys just can't stand playing for him for more than a year or two. That's why we see constant roster turnover. Annually rebuilding the roster from scratch just isn't going to get it done in today's college basketball
Click to expand...
You are what your stats say to are. Oscar best rebounder I have ever seen at UK in my lifetime. One of the worst defenders at his position. Dickinson, being taller, better shooter, same on defense is a positive trade
 
  • Like
Reactions: IbnSaran
bigblueinsanity said:
We're trading one defensive liability for another. Oscar was consensus national player of the year and massively produced for the program. I can't get on board with pushing him out to bring in another, slower yet taller big. Instead should just roll with onyenso and oscar

Calipari cannot continue to rebuild completely every single year. We have no continuity and it's killing us
Click to expand...
This could not be more wrong.

In a his day and age EVERY major college team is rebuilding/reloading each year. That’s the rules and everyone is playing with them.

Cal is dealing with it the best way he knows how. Go get the best players and then try and mold them into a cohesive unit.
 
  • Like
Reactions: postmodernprimate
RDF922 said:
This could not be more wrong.

In a his day and age EVERY major college team is rebuilding/reloading each year. That’s the rules and everyone is playing with them.

Cal is dealing with it the best way he knows how. Go get the best players and then try and mold them into a cohesive unit.
Click to expand...

Yet again you're creating a strawman by conflating two different issues. Yes everyone now deals with roster turnover. No, not everyone deals with complete roster turnover like we do.

Complete roster turnover every year is not a recipe for success
 
  • Like
Reactions: michaeluk26, Cowtown Cat, bucsrule8872 and 1 other person
Dickinson is a better passer and shooter. Sign me up! Still love Oscar. I'd take either one.
 
bigblueinsanity said:
Alot better at defense doesn't mean he isn't a defensive liability. I just don't see the wisdom in pushing out a national player of the year for a guy that has mostly the same issues, but taller.

Imo Cals at this bizarre stage in his career where most guys just can't stand playing for him for more than a year or two. That's why we see constant roster turnover. Annually rebuilding the roster from scratch just isn't going to get it done in today's college basketball
Click to expand...
I don’t see it either. Dickinson is simply the shiny, new object. I never have been impressed with HD. He’s a solid player and nothing more. I mean he’s 7’1” and still playing college ball. If Oscar were 7’1”, he’d most likely already been drafted by now.
 
  • Like
Reactions: treyforuk, bigblueinsanity and Blue_2_the_bone
Cowtown Cat said:
I don’t see it either. Dickinson is simply the shiny, new object. I never have been impressed with HD. He’s a solid player and nothing more. I mean he’s 7’1” and still playing college ball. If Oscar were 7’1”, he’d most likely already been drafted by now.
Click to expand...
HD is pretty clearly the better Shooter, Post player, Passer, PNR defender, taller, finisher, and shot blocker
Oscar is more athletic, the better rebounder, and probably the better on ball defender.
If you look at the 2 top to bottom, HD is obviously the better player IMO based off of skillset.
 
BigCat241 said:
HD is pretty clearly the better Shooter, Post player, Passer, PNR defender, taller, finisher, and shot blocker
Oscar is more athletic, the better rebounder, and probably the better on ball defender.
If you look at the 2 top to bottom, HD is obviously the better player IMO based off of skillset.
Click to expand...
I just don’t see moving out a two time first team AA and former NPOY for him. Oscar wasn’t even fully healthy last season. He was a much better defender in 2022, when healthy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Myth Buster51, Blue_2_the_bone, treyforuk and 1 other person
bigblueinsanity said:
We're trading one defensive liability for another. Oscar was consensus national player of the year and massively produced for the program. I can't get on board with pushing him out to bring in another, slower yet taller big. Instead should just roll with onyenso and oscar

Calipari cannot continue to rebuild completely every single year. We have no continuity and it's killing us
Click to expand...
Can you repeat that for the 200th time.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back