Has NIL Hurt the SEC?

[The-Hack]

It makes no sense, as the SEC undoubtedly gained in talent disproportionately to the college football world, but something seems amiss.

Have SEC teams, in general been caught reading their own press clippings, spending time on NIL events and losing their collective edge?

Excluding Colorado, did SEC teams bring in the most new transfers, upsetting team chemistries?

I’m going to take a “wait-and-see” approach.

In reality, we have a very limited data set this early, but early on, there is head-scratching going on all over the South.

 

[hmt5000]

I think it's the portal. The sec dominates recruiting but portal transfers can alter that quick. FSU isn't near the team they look like without the portal. NIL going to recruits probably gives most sec schools less for "free agents".

 

[bluecoon1]

I think some guys are more focused on their NIL deals and commercials than they are the game. We have at least one that comes to mind.

 

[JHB4UK]

quarterback play league wide is down, or hasn't yet shown itself to be good quality. Knoxville, Alabama, Florida downgraded at the position. Georgia, Arkansas, Miss St downgraded at OC.

 

[CatPatrick13]

Interesting on Finebaum yesterday, he said that what surprised him was that the portal has done more to change college football than the NIL...

 

[JimmyBlue1972]

I thought everyone in the SEC supported NIL besides us. I know Texas A&M bought that top class that won like 4 games then many of them transferred.

 

[Rembrandt90]

It makes no sense, as the SEC undoubtedly gained in talent disproportionately to the college football world, but something seems amiss.

Have SEC teams, in general been caught reading their own press clippings, spending time on NIL events and losing their collective edge?

Excluding Colorado, did SEC teams bring in the most new transfers, upsetting team chemistries?

I’m going to take a “wait-and-see” approach.

In reality, we have a very limited data set this early, but early on, there is head-scratching going on all over the South.

NIL has hurt, and is hurting, major college athletics in general for a lot of reasons. As a significant component of college athletics, the SEC also gets hurt. Whenever you legalize financial payments that were formerly illegal, that changes everything. In this case, NIL is giving private donors (including corporations) leverage with college athletes that was formerly understood to be the wrong influence for amateur athletics. This has been held by the courts and portrayed by the media as fair compensation for services rendered, and everyone can decide for themselves if that is an appropriate rationale for NIL. But if you are going to single out one particular conference for disproportionate harm from NIL, you have to be specific about the nature of the harm you are envisioning. If it is just about losing some intersectional football games in September, 2023, the simplist thing to say in response is that the sample size is too small for the conclusion. But I would suggest the wrong question is being asked. Why is NIL hurting the SEC more than it is hurting college sports in general?

 

[Deli owl]

Time has hurt the SEC. There's no possible way you can dominate forever. Not how sports work.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

A few schools are spending like crazy on NIL. FSU and Miami are bidding against each other for top players, both are tampering big time with other teams rosters. UGA is big on NIL and are losing kids because of it. UGA isn't big in the portal either, it brought 3 in this spring, one is a walk-on, none in 22 and 3 in 21. But if a kid enters the portal looking for the best NIL deal UGA isn't a factor. So the ACC is getting stronger, buying kids that normally went to SEC schools. So yes the SEC is coming back to the other conferences, how does anyone not see that?

The conference's biggest win was Missouri’s over Kansas st on a 61 yard fg as time expired. LSU and Bama lost their OOC games by double digits. SEC may have more parity with 10-12 teams capable of beating each other, but for the first time in a long time I don't think we have a team in conference capable of winning a NC. Only 3 teams undefeated and 1 is completely overlooked, lost every big OOC game, one team in top 10 meanwhile Big10 has 3 and Pac12 has 4. Of course that is going to change as teams play each other, but a top 10 losing a close game to a top 10 won't drop far.

But as of now, FSU's toughest remains is either Miami or UF, i think they are in playoffs, Texas isn't likely to lose and will win BIG12 and in, Big10, Pac12 and SEC may not have a team go undefeated. Thus those 3 conferences are fighting for the other 2 playoff spots. I think UGA is going to lose a couple games, think Missouri is about to start a losing streak, UK just has so far to climb, even at 13-0 could get left out if the other 4 have undefeated conference championships. That wouldn't have happened the last 15 years.

USC, Texas and FSU are openly tampering and buying players. They aren't playing by the same rules almost everyone else is. A very good chance that is 3 playoff teams. And that will be the end of college football for me. It's professional football with no rules.

 

[Rembrandt90]

Time has hurt the SEC. There's no possible way you can dominate forever. Not how sports work.

Given the geographic and financial advantages currently held by the SEC (including the mega TV contracts), it can dominate for a long time.

 

[vhcat70]

But I would suggest the wrong question is being asked. Why is NIL hurting the SEC more than it is hurting college sports in general?

I'd argue it's because the SEC states have below average wealth - as I imagined when NIL started. More & wealthier alumni & corps in B1G & ACC states to spend on NIL.

 

[Rembrandt90]

I'd argue it's because the SEC states have below average wealth - as I imagined when NIL started. More & wealthier alumni & corps in B1G & ACC states to spend on NIL.

That's an interesting point if objectively true. But many of the healthiest state economies are in the southeast and many of the most indebted and heavily taxed states are in the northeast. There are financial reasons why a mass migration from north to south is underway in the US.

 

[JHB4UK]

Interesting on Finebaum yesterday, he said that what surprised him was that the portal has done more to change college football than the NIL...

4 & 5 star kids aren't content to sit on the bench at Bama/Georgia/LSU and wait their turn as juniors/seniors. They are portaling to Big 10/ACC/lower level SEC and playing instantly.

Plus smart coaches like Norvell & Stoops identify roster weaknesses and aggressively fill those slots with instant starters with CFB playing experience from the portal. Old school coaches like Saban and Kirby and Dabo are struggling with the portal. Inexcusable for Bama to be this bad at QB, or Clemson at WR, or Georgia thin at RB.

 

[lsb34m3]

My concern with NIL isn’t college football in general. Of course I want Kentucky to win and win big, but my concern is for all these kids who are committed for the money and perks. Very few make it to the NFL and “big money”. These kids making decisions based on what they get now will be broke probably 1-2 years out of college. I would rather see a system that helps these kids put this new found money into funds and investments for their future. Of course I know that’s not gonna happen but it a school could provide education and financial advisors to these kids that would be amazing.

 

[vhcat70]

That's an interesting point if objectively true. But many of the healthiest state economies are in the southeast and many of the most indebted and heavily taxed states are in the northeast. There are financial reasons why a mass migration from north to south is underway in the US.

Per Capita Income by State 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

 

[vhcat70]

My concern with NIL isn’t college football in general. Of course I want Kentucky to win and win big, but my concern is for all these kids who are committed for the money and perks. Very few make it to the NFL and “big money”. These kids making decisions based on what they get now will be broke probably 1-2 years out of college. I would rather see a system that helps these kids put this new found money into funds and investments for their future. Of course I know that’s not gonna happen but it a school could provide education and financial advisors to these kids that would be amazing.

FWIW, I'd rather get money & spend it all in 1-2 years than never to have had to to begin with.

 

[trueblujr2]

I think it's the portal. The sec dominates recruiting but portal transfers can alter that quick. FSU isn't near the team they look like without the portal. NIL going to recruits probably gives most sec schools less for "free agents".

4 and 5 star guys who were willing to wait their turn behind other 4 and 5 star guys at traditional powers are no longer willing to wait that time and will utilize the portal to seek better opportunities. That's one aspect that hurts the traditional powers depth. NIL has also definitely taken it's toll as we see guys leaving for money. NIL is still pretty new, but it could easily consolidate the high level marketable talent to the schools with the resources and boosters who can afford lofty NIL deals.

 

[docholiday51]

I think it is NIL and portal. It is important to define "hurting" ,the portal has brought parity to the SEC more quickly than anyone thought possible. Players and coaches are feeling their way thru NIL, everyone clamored for NIL because the big ol' mean institutions were exploiting the poor little college athlete. Money is like the truth most just can't handle it.

There is no free lunch NIL comes with its own unique problems, baggage and unforeseen consequences.

 

[Rembrandt90]

Per Capita Income by State 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

Too vague. Doesn't differentiate between public and private sector sources of income. Doesn't reflect how differential cost of living and taxation from state to state impact incomes. Therefore, doesn't reflect state by state economic strength.

Bedsides, there is no evidence to support your suggestion that per capita income is related to NIL contributions. The average earner generally speaking does not contribute to NIL, or does not contribute at a difference making level. Who makes a difference for NIL is not a function of state by state per capita incomes.

 

[Deli owl]

Given the geographic and financial advantages currently held by the SEC (including the mega TV contracts), it can dominate for a long time.

It has and I don't think they are finished quite yet.

 

[vhcat70]

Too vague. Doesn't differentiate between public and private sector sources of income. Doesn't reflect how differential cost of living and taxation from state to state impact incomes. Therefore, doesn't reflect state by state economic strength.

Use GDP: https://wisevoter.com/state-rankings/gdp-by-state/

There's no evidence that higher available dollars, be it personal or corporate, won't favor long-term higher NIL imo.

 

[Rembrandt90]

Use GDP: https://wisevoter.com/state-rankings/gdp-by-state/

There's no evidence that higher available dollars, be it personal or corporate, won't favor long-term higher NIL imo.

I didn't say there is. I am only questioning your earlier assertion that NIL money is more available in the B10 and ACC than in the SEC. I am inclined to doubt it is, because SEC sports are part of the primary culture in all SEC states while that is not necessarily the case in most B10 or ACC states. I don't think we can resolve this with certainty though.

 

[FickusDuckus]

NIL has hurt, and is hurting, major college athletics in general for a lot of reasons. As a significant component of college athletics, the SEC also gets hurt. Whenever you legalize financial payments that were formerly illegal, that changes everything. In this case, NIL is giving private donors (including corporations) leverage with college athletes that was formerly understood to be the wrong influence for amateur athletics. This has been held by the courts and portrayed by the media as fair compensation for services rendered, and everyone can decide for themselves if that is an appropriate rationale for NIL. But if you are going to single out one particular conference for disproportionate harm from NIL, you have to be specific about the nature of the harm you are envisioning. If it is just about losing some intersectional football games in September, 2023, the simplist thing to say in response is that the sample size is too small for the conclusion. But I would suggest the wrong question is being asked. Why is NIL hurting the SEC more than it is hurting college sports in general?

Because the traditional schools would pay under table and many schools especially smaller to mid schools wouldnt join in. now that its legal they have way more competition. Add in the fact coaches now refrain from promising the world (pt etc) because if you lie that player is gone in one year. It didnt just hurt the SEC it hurt all the power football schools but its gonna create great parity in the years to come.

 

[Rivals_Defender]

I think it is a combo of both NIL and the Portal. Especially with the portal, because you have some really good talent that the "Big Name" teams either pass on or just have them warm the bench. They hit the portal and transfer to somewhere they will get instant playing time and they become overnight sensations.
NIL just in general benefits the College Football elite programs like Bama, UGA, Notre Dame, Oregon, etc.

 

[Hoskins21]

It's the portal IMO. Yeah, NIL hurts some too, but what's hurting most teams is losing quality depth. Teams are finding it harder and harder to replace starters with quality players when needed. UK has more 4 and 5 star players starting than Florida. When has that ever happened before?

 

[canebreak]

I said in the beginning that the coastal schools would begin to dominate with NIL. So schools in Florida, Texas, California and someone on the east coast. So many wealthy individuals. SEC schools will never compete unless the common man starts donating. I think it is the beginning of SEC decline, except the Texas schools. Maybe significant. I could see schools like USC and Texas going crazy. And Florida is not where the money donors are. They are in Miami. I could even see schools on the east coast getting really good. And right here in Kentucky UL has more access to corporate money than UK does. And a few Big 10 schools may also go off.

But this was before the portal that I predicted this. I think the portal will have same result because most of those transfers are about NIL money. It is just gasoline on the fire.

 

[Eccain01]

Nah it’s not money. Texas A&M spent the bag and they still lose. It’s the portal and QB play lol. The QB play outside of the sec is significantly better this year. No Elite QBs this year

 

[bthaunert]

As others have mentioned, definitely the portal playing more of a role imo. In the past 2 seasons, Alabama has lost 44 players to the portal as an example. A lot of the guys would have stayed and waited their turn in the past. The idea of reloading year after year with guys currently on your roster is getting tougher and tougher.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

4 & 5 star kids aren't content to sit on the bench at Bama/Georgia/LSU and wait their turn as juniors/seniors. They are portaling to Big 10/ACC/lower level SEC and playing instantly.

Plus smart coaches like Norvell & Stoops identify roster weaknesses and aggressively fill those slots with instant starters with CFB playing experience from the portal. Old school coaches like Saban and Kirby and Dabo are struggling with the portal. Inexcusable for Bama to be this bad at QB, or Clemson at WR, or Georgia thin at RB.

To be fair we had 5 on scholarship when fall camp started, who knew 4 were going to get injured in August? Plus Kirby rather have 18 DB than 6 RB.

 

[Tskware]

As others have mentioned, definitely the portal playing more of a role imo. In the past 2 seasons, Alabama has lost 44 players to the portal as an example. A lot of the guys would have stayed and waited their turn in the past. The idea of reloading year after year with guys currently on your roster is getting tougher and tougher.

I think that is closer to the truth at the moment. May turn out that the richest schools and states eventually dominate, but you can't pay backups enough money to sit for three years and not get a chance to play.

Someone mentioned the Northeast, in my lifetime, the NE states have never been much interested in college football or college sports in general, so it really makes no difference how much money is in Conn, NJ, NY, etc., those are pro sports areas, always will be, at least IMO.

 

[JDHoss]

As others have mentioned, definitely the portal playing more of a role imo. In the past 2 seasons, Alabama has lost 44 players to the portal as an example. A lot of the guys would have stayed and waited their turn in the past. The idea of reloading year after year with guys currently on your roster is getting tougher and tougher.

That's a ton of players in a 2 year span, and if you throw in how many left for the NFL draft that still had eligibility and have a few recruiting misses, it's easy to see how you can go from great to "good" in a short period of time.

 

[JDHoss]

I think that is closer to the truth at the moment. May turn out that the richest schools and states eventually dominate, but you can't pay backups enough money to sit for three years and not get a chance to play.

Someone mentioned the Northeast, in my lifetime, the NE states have never been much interested in college football or college sports in general, so it really makes no difference how much money is in Conn, NJ, NY, etc., those are pro sports areas, always will be, at least IMO.

Same here in South Florida. People are way more interested in pro sports than college, and it's reflected in the media sports coverage and if you notice the decals, flags, signs and apparel people wear, its overwhelmingly pro sports related, with the NFL leading the way.

 

[lazydave841]

USC, Texas and FSU are openly tampering and buying players. They aren't playing by the same rules almost everyone else is. A very good chance that is 3 playoff teams

USC has no defense. They likely stumble once. Oregon is the bigger threat. Texas is still Texas. Now FSU might have a cake walk, but BC gave em heck.

4 and 5 star guys who were willing to wait their turn behind other 4 and 5 star guys at traditional powers are no longer willing to wait that time and will utilize the portal to seek better opportunities

make no mistake: they had to wait. Or sit a year. The Bamas always had superior depth. Now, they don't have it.

Alabama has lost 44 players to the portal as an example. A lot of the guys would have stayed and waited their turn

How many are starting now? I'm just curious.

 

[Tskware]

Same here in South Florida. People are way more interested in pro sports than college, and it's reflected in the media sports coverage and if you notice the decals, flags, signs and apparel people wear, its overwhelmingly pro sports related, with the NFL leading the way.

Daughter lived in Long Beach for years, and when I visited, I saw 10x as many Dodger hats and flags as USC or UCLA, not even close.

 

[JHB4UK]

Very interesting discussion. As well pointed out, what good does it do for a state or region to have high income/wealth if they don't care at all about CFB? As compared to "poor" areas but are fanatical about the sport and much more willing to give over parts of their low incomes to NIL?

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

USC has no defense. They likely stumble once. Oregon is the bigger threat. Texas is still Texas. Now FSU might have a cake walk,

Texas is in the BIG12, which is weaker than the ACC. The beating TCU took last year may hurt a BIG12 team getting another invite, but they have a big win over a top 10 Bama. Oregon is certainly a threat for a playoff spot, and probably the biggest threat for the playoff. Will be interesting to see if Bama will go after Lanning, he was a GA there, if he makes the playoff this year his name will be on their short list.

 

[bthaunert]

Very interesting discussion. As well pointed out, what good does it do for a state or region to have high income/wealth if they don't care at all about CFB? As compared to "poor" areas but are fanatical about the sport and much more willing to give over parts of their low incomes to NIL?

Here is the perfect example. In 2011, when Oregon played Auburn in the BCS National Championship game, I was working at Oregon. The game was on a Monday night. Auburn cancelled classes that day. Oregon did not and couldn't comprehend why Auburn did. It's just different.

 

[Blueworld_3.0]

I have to believe that after this or next season a lot of SEC schools are going to be leading the charge to put limits on the Portal to some extent. It's ultimately bad for longtime power programs that want to build depth. Now, because of the portal, kids don't have to stay buried on a roster at Bama, LSU or TAMU.
And when you add in NIL, it's a no-brainer that a bunch of them will eventually bolt to a program where they can start and make some $$$.
Then, add in a bunch of marginal QB's, coaching turnover...including positions coaches, and you can see how the SEC has become (with the exception of Georgia) mediocre in 2023.

 

[JHB4UK]

Horse has left the barn. There will not be any reversals of the freedom given to kids through the portal & NIL.

Adapt or die

 

[ace on the river]

It’s hurting Alabama IMO. And I believe that’s why Saban spoke out against it a couple years ago