This is long, stop reading if you don't want to...but I wanted to really give my long opinion on Cal and the program right now.
When Cal arrived in 2009, he was a trendsetter. His teams were fun and exciting...he got all the talent. We played fast and we played fun. We had 3 of the best teams of all time within a 6 year period. Of those other 3 teams, 1 made the Final Four and the other was a runner-up. So what's changed?
1. Copy Cats/Everyone going pro
Cal was stocking up all the top recruits. He got who he wanted. John Wall, Brandon Knight, MKG, Davis, and Noel were all rated #1 in their class at one time. Other than UCLA, no one was really stocking up on all the good players. Coach K tried to get 1 or so with Kyrie and Rivers at first. Bill Self entered the picture next. Not to mention Michigan State, UNC, Arizona & Texas. So we got competition from the big programs on the top talent. And then the random schools get the top ones every year. Cal isn't missing....he just wasn't touched early on and all of a sudden everyone got involved.
Guys like Zion, Wiseman, & Cunningham were our type of guys we get 10 years ago...plug one of them in to the last 3 teams and imagine how good we are?
In order, here are who have gotten top 10 guys over time
In 2008: Ok State, UCLA, USC, Europe, Tennessee, Memphis, Wake Forrest, Georgetown, Louisville, Oklahoma
In 2009: Kentucky, Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Texas, UNC, Texas, FSU, Kansas, Oklahoma, Villanova
In 2011: Duke, Kentucky, Kentucky, Florida, Kentucky, OK State, UNC, Baylor, UNC, Pitt, Baylor
In 2013: Kansas, Kentucky, Arizona, Duke, Kentucky, Florida, Kentucky,Indiana, Kentucky, Florida
In 2014: Duke, SMU, Arizona, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Texas, UCLA
In 2018: Duke, UNC, Duke Oregon, Duke, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Kansas, WKU, Euro
In 2020: Ok State, Pro, Pro, USC, Kentucky, Stanford, FSU, Kentucky, Duke, Texas
I'd also go back to players staying...remember 2009 before Cal got here...UNC won the national title. Hansborough, Danny Green, and Ty Lawson all came back as upperclassmen. Deandre Liggins and Darius Miller stayed through some early bumps. Now everyone is leaving early. Louisville lost Deng Adel and Jalen Johnson a few years back and they didn't even get drafted...VJ King was a 5 star for them that transferred & they lost former 4-star Darius Perry last year to transfer...It's a different world. Poythress stayed 4 due to injury and Grayson Allen stayed 4 because that's him...but even Duke can't keep them 4 years.
2. Changes in the game.
When Cal did well the first 3 years, the game was different. Remember before they added all the bogus hand-check rules? We could play with a 6-7 man rotation most games as fouls were not being called that much. Our long/athletic kids could play defense up on someone...so the adjustment wasn't as hard because they're used to just using their body. We worry now about having a good 4th big man just in case....remember when Jorts, Jones, and Vargas was all we needed?
Cal really was focused on defense first. He loved recruiting these athletes because they could just physically dominate a game. You can't do that now....if Hamidou Diallo is on the 2012 team instead of MKG he would've been a superstar. If MKG was on this current team....we'd all be calling him a bust and Cal can't recruit shooters. Imagine Terrance Clarke playing 10 years ago? So now the game is more about shooting and it's a lot more random. There's more space. Keldon Johnson and Hagans can't just play hard...they aren't used to D1 level conditioning and dont have the experience to know how to defend without fouling at this level. Cal may hate the slow shooter who does not play defense...but at the same time the long athletic freshman can't physically dominate anymore. So he does need to evaluate the role of shooters...everyone is getting burned on defense anyways....get the tall guys to protect the rim and 3-4 of the best shooters. That's what the game is now.
I'd also say that we're not missing on point guards as much as there aren't as many as their were 10 years ago. If you don't get a Cade Cunningham...there really isn't a PG you can have ready day 1. All the top guys are combo guards now. The best players now have the ball in their hands....they're studying Harden/Curry more than CP3/Wall. The AAU culture has always been there...but high school matters even less and position-less is taking away the true point. There isn't a Brandon Knight if you miss out on Kyrie....if you miss Trae Young it's Quade Green.....if you miss Cade Cunningham you get Devin Askew.
This is where I agree with the negative guys, he needs to change his style of play.
3. LUCK
There was a lot of good fortune the first few years. We got every top recruit we wanted and they weren't busts. Jorts became a stud for his final year. In 2011, all of our shots fell on the run to the Final Four. We got Lamb and Jones to give it one more try in 2012. Aaron Harrison's shots falling in 2014. We got the Harrison's, Dakari, Poythress, Marcus Lee, & Willie to all return for 2014-15. Notre Dame missed that shot in 2015. Things went our way!
Look at the luck the next few years..
15-16: Dakari does not come back when he should. Skal is a bust. Willis gets hurt when he's heating up. The Humphries tech...leading to that awful seed.
16-17: Lee transfers when we needed him at the 5. Matthews transfers. Fox gets hurt/sick in the middle of the year...which costs us a #1 seed during the losing streak. John Higgins. The UNC shot.
17-18: Humphries & Briscoe don't come back. Vanderbilt is hurt...returns...hurt again. Baker is hurt all year. Richards, Green, & Diallo aren't up to par. PJ's finger and the missed free throws..with Loyola Chicago waiting in the Elite 8
18-19: Diallo/Vanderbilt leave as 2nd rounders. Gabriel leaves undrafted. SKJ transfers. Shai Alexander drafted, when we anticipated him as a 2-3 year guy. EJ Montgomery is a bust year 1. Quade transfers mid-year. Reid gets hurt on our way to playing for a 1 seed or Louisville regional. PJ gets hurt in the SEC title game. We collapsed and just needed 1 more point to beat Auburn.
19-20: Memphis hires Penny and gets Wiseman. Baker transfers. Dontaie Allen hurt the whole year. Whitney is a bust and quits mid-year. Hagans mental breakdown....and then SEC Champs by 2 games....NCAA tournament cancelled.
20-21: OK State has Cunningham's brother. Everyone leaves...Juzang transfers. Montgomery & Hagans are undrafted. COVID prevents a normal offseason and changes the schedule....Brooks injured.
Where everything went right and in our favor in the first 6 years, we haven't gotten that luck the last 6. 1 more point against UNC & Auburn....and then that would've been 6 Final Four's in 9 years..or if we go on a run last March if it wasn't cancelled?
My thoughts
I think Cal was ahead of the curve in the beginning and it was more fun to watch. The game was built for his style...but it's a different game now. It's more random and harder to keep kids. Talent wins game and shooting is taking over...but you see certain teams have to build for a few years to get those guys...and hope they don't leave early. I think Cal is doing fine overall, but I'm thinking he just needs to find a way to KEEP KIDS. Just say in 2018 you have Briscoe/SGA/Knox/PJ/Humphries.
I think the next few years will be telling. Right now, we have guys like Ware, Fletcher, Allen, Toppin, & Askew who have no business declaring. Then add in the 1 time transfer portal opening up opportunities to get some better shooting and fill in some holes. All of college basketball will be adjusting to high roster turnover now, Cal is used to it...he just needs enough to return and some shooters.
Also, we've been in the position to win every year...just haven't been lucky.
-Just say Wichita hits the shot in 2014, but we beat UNC in 2017. Just say Ohio State hits their shot in 2011 and we hit a buzzer beater in 2019. That all could've easily happened and we were in the same spot...then you could say we had 3 Final Four's in our last 5 tries and then the first 5 we would've only had 1.
-Just say...we miss Davis in 2011....but get Zion in 2018?
-Think about if Jones/Lamb don't return in 2011-12...but say Quickley & Nick Richards return for this team?
Lets see how this year finishes, but it really does seem like we have been in the same spots as we were the first 6 years. 2017 & 2019 had injuries at key times that cost them 1 seeds...and bad luck...but those 2 teams were high level teams whether you want to admit it or not. Sometimes the shots fall and sometimes players stay healthy...sometimes they come back...but sometimes they don't....
There isn't one clear way winning college basketball now. You can all complain, but the last 5 years have been random and no one is dominating. If you don't have talent...you have to wait for a good team to come along and hope it goes right. If you have talent, you have to hope they all are good enough and it clicks.
When Cal arrived in 2009, he was a trendsetter. His teams were fun and exciting...he got all the talent. We played fast and we played fun. We had 3 of the best teams of all time within a 6 year period. Of those other 3 teams, 1 made the Final Four and the other was a runner-up. So what's changed?
1. Copy Cats/Everyone going pro
Cal was stocking up all the top recruits. He got who he wanted. John Wall, Brandon Knight, MKG, Davis, and Noel were all rated #1 in their class at one time. Other than UCLA, no one was really stocking up on all the good players. Coach K tried to get 1 or so with Kyrie and Rivers at first. Bill Self entered the picture next. Not to mention Michigan State, UNC, Arizona & Texas. So we got competition from the big programs on the top talent. And then the random schools get the top ones every year. Cal isn't missing....he just wasn't touched early on and all of a sudden everyone got involved.
Guys like Zion, Wiseman, & Cunningham were our type of guys we get 10 years ago...plug one of them in to the last 3 teams and imagine how good we are?
In order, here are who have gotten top 10 guys over time
In 2008: Ok State, UCLA, USC, Europe, Tennessee, Memphis, Wake Forrest, Georgetown, Louisville, Oklahoma
In 2009: Kentucky, Kentucky, Georgia Tech, Texas, UNC, Texas, FSU, Kansas, Oklahoma, Villanova
In 2011: Duke, Kentucky, Kentucky, Florida, Kentucky, OK State, UNC, Baylor, UNC, Pitt, Baylor
In 2013: Kansas, Kentucky, Arizona, Duke, Kentucky, Florida, Kentucky,Indiana, Kentucky, Florida
In 2014: Duke, SMU, Arizona, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Texas, UCLA
In 2018: Duke, UNC, Duke Oregon, Duke, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Kansas, WKU, Euro
In 2020: Ok State, Pro, Pro, USC, Kentucky, Stanford, FSU, Kentucky, Duke, Texas
I'd also go back to players staying...remember 2009 before Cal got here...UNC won the national title. Hansborough, Danny Green, and Ty Lawson all came back as upperclassmen. Deandre Liggins and Darius Miller stayed through some early bumps. Now everyone is leaving early. Louisville lost Deng Adel and Jalen Johnson a few years back and they didn't even get drafted...VJ King was a 5 star for them that transferred & they lost former 4-star Darius Perry last year to transfer...It's a different world. Poythress stayed 4 due to injury and Grayson Allen stayed 4 because that's him...but even Duke can't keep them 4 years.
2. Changes in the game.
When Cal did well the first 3 years, the game was different. Remember before they added all the bogus hand-check rules? We could play with a 6-7 man rotation most games as fouls were not being called that much. Our long/athletic kids could play defense up on someone...so the adjustment wasn't as hard because they're used to just using their body. We worry now about having a good 4th big man just in case....remember when Jorts, Jones, and Vargas was all we needed?
Cal really was focused on defense first. He loved recruiting these athletes because they could just physically dominate a game. You can't do that now....if Hamidou Diallo is on the 2012 team instead of MKG he would've been a superstar. If MKG was on this current team....we'd all be calling him a bust and Cal can't recruit shooters. Imagine Terrance Clarke playing 10 years ago? So now the game is more about shooting and it's a lot more random. There's more space. Keldon Johnson and Hagans can't just play hard...they aren't used to D1 level conditioning and dont have the experience to know how to defend without fouling at this level. Cal may hate the slow shooter who does not play defense...but at the same time the long athletic freshman can't physically dominate anymore. So he does need to evaluate the role of shooters...everyone is getting burned on defense anyways....get the tall guys to protect the rim and 3-4 of the best shooters. That's what the game is now.
I'd also say that we're not missing on point guards as much as there aren't as many as their were 10 years ago. If you don't get a Cade Cunningham...there really isn't a PG you can have ready day 1. All the top guys are combo guards now. The best players now have the ball in their hands....they're studying Harden/Curry more than CP3/Wall. The AAU culture has always been there...but high school matters even less and position-less is taking away the true point. There isn't a Brandon Knight if you miss out on Kyrie....if you miss Trae Young it's Quade Green.....if you miss Cade Cunningham you get Devin Askew.
This is where I agree with the negative guys, he needs to change his style of play.
3. LUCK
There was a lot of good fortune the first few years. We got every top recruit we wanted and they weren't busts. Jorts became a stud for his final year. In 2011, all of our shots fell on the run to the Final Four. We got Lamb and Jones to give it one more try in 2012. Aaron Harrison's shots falling in 2014. We got the Harrison's, Dakari, Poythress, Marcus Lee, & Willie to all return for 2014-15. Notre Dame missed that shot in 2015. Things went our way!
Look at the luck the next few years..
15-16: Dakari does not come back when he should. Skal is a bust. Willis gets hurt when he's heating up. The Humphries tech...leading to that awful seed.
16-17: Lee transfers when we needed him at the 5. Matthews transfers. Fox gets hurt/sick in the middle of the year...which costs us a #1 seed during the losing streak. John Higgins. The UNC shot.
17-18: Humphries & Briscoe don't come back. Vanderbilt is hurt...returns...hurt again. Baker is hurt all year. Richards, Green, & Diallo aren't up to par. PJ's finger and the missed free throws..with Loyola Chicago waiting in the Elite 8
18-19: Diallo/Vanderbilt leave as 2nd rounders. Gabriel leaves undrafted. SKJ transfers. Shai Alexander drafted, when we anticipated him as a 2-3 year guy. EJ Montgomery is a bust year 1. Quade transfers mid-year. Reid gets hurt on our way to playing for a 1 seed or Louisville regional. PJ gets hurt in the SEC title game. We collapsed and just needed 1 more point to beat Auburn.
19-20: Memphis hires Penny and gets Wiseman. Baker transfers. Dontaie Allen hurt the whole year. Whitney is a bust and quits mid-year. Hagans mental breakdown....and then SEC Champs by 2 games....NCAA tournament cancelled.
20-21: OK State has Cunningham's brother. Everyone leaves...Juzang transfers. Montgomery & Hagans are undrafted. COVID prevents a normal offseason and changes the schedule....Brooks injured.
Where everything went right and in our favor in the first 6 years, we haven't gotten that luck the last 6. 1 more point against UNC & Auburn....and then that would've been 6 Final Four's in 9 years..or if we go on a run last March if it wasn't cancelled?
My thoughts
I think Cal was ahead of the curve in the beginning and it was more fun to watch. The game was built for his style...but it's a different game now. It's more random and harder to keep kids. Talent wins game and shooting is taking over...but you see certain teams have to build for a few years to get those guys...and hope they don't leave early. I think Cal is doing fine overall, but I'm thinking he just needs to find a way to KEEP KIDS. Just say in 2018 you have Briscoe/SGA/Knox/PJ/Humphries.
I think the next few years will be telling. Right now, we have guys like Ware, Fletcher, Allen, Toppin, & Askew who have no business declaring. Then add in the 1 time transfer portal opening up opportunities to get some better shooting and fill in some holes. All of college basketball will be adjusting to high roster turnover now, Cal is used to it...he just needs enough to return and some shooters.
Also, we've been in the position to win every year...just haven't been lucky.
-Just say Wichita hits the shot in 2014, but we beat UNC in 2017. Just say Ohio State hits their shot in 2011 and we hit a buzzer beater in 2019. That all could've easily happened and we were in the same spot...then you could say we had 3 Final Four's in our last 5 tries and then the first 5 we would've only had 1.
-Just say...we miss Davis in 2011....but get Zion in 2018?
-Think about if Jones/Lamb don't return in 2011-12...but say Quickley & Nick Richards return for this team?
Lets see how this year finishes, but it really does seem like we have been in the same spots as we were the first 6 years. 2017 & 2019 had injuries at key times that cost them 1 seeds...and bad luck...but those 2 teams were high level teams whether you want to admit it or not. Sometimes the shots fall and sometimes players stay healthy...sometimes they come back...but sometimes they don't....
There isn't one clear way winning college basketball now. You can all complain, but the last 5 years have been random and no one is dominating. If you don't have talent...you have to wait for a good team to come along and hope it goes right. If you have talent, you have to hope they all are good enough and it clicks.
