I’ve found The Athletic’s Slingshot model for NCAA upsets interesting for the last few years. Not sure how they model it before the matchups come out but it doesn’t love us…
The Athletic
Which March Madness 2025 favorites are most vulnerable to an upset?
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky has persevered despite a deluge of injuries. Their win at Missouri last Saturday showed that, even without Jaxson Robinson and Kerr Kriisa, they remain dangerous, particularly on offense. But they’re also vulnerable in the first round, yet again.
Why? They don’t maximize possessions. Start on defense, where the Wildcats force a turnover about as often as their fans applaud a ref’s call. In fact, they rank dead last in the nation in steal rate (4.8 percent). While they do a good job of limiting opponents’ success from three-point range (30.4 percent shooting allowed), they let teams take a lot of treys (43.7 percent of attempts). That’s a dangerous gambit: Analytics show that the best form of perimeter defense is to limit 3-point attempts, as 3-point percentage is harder to control and more subject to fluctuations. Kentucky fans have seen that firsthand all season. In a loss to Auburn, the Wildcats allowed the Tigers to hit 12-of-26 3s. Ole Miss hit 13-of-30 in a 14-point win in February. Alabama hit a combined 24 3s in a pair of wins. Looking ahead to the tourney, letting a mid-major shoot a lot of 3s is …
not great, Bob.
Nor is UK’s offensive rebounding. That’s the only weak link in the country’s sixth-ranked offense, but it’s a big one from Slingshot’s perspective. Like Wisconsin, Kentucky lacks a buffer against a poor shooting night, which is a serious concern in
March. Mark Pope’s first year back in Lexington has certainly been a success, but there’s a real chance it could end with another first-round disappointment.
