Food for thought on Pope's defense

[ukcatz12]

Here are some numbers through tonight's game on our defense this year. We sit 111th in the country at defense efficiency allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions. The only team worse than us in the top 50 is UConn.

But if you look further into the numbers you'll see the issue isn't really our opponents 3 point shooting, it's the two point shooting and lack of turnovers created.

Opponents are shooting 30.3% from 3 against us, which is ranked 33rd best in the country. Opponents are hitting 52.7% of their 2 point FGs against us, which is ranked 244th in the country. We're also generate a TO on only 13.4% of defensive possessions, which is ranked 352nd.

The last two stats kind of make sense given the make up of our team. We have bad on ball defenders who can't stay in front of their guys, leading to our opponents getting the the rim to create a layup or midrange shot easily. We also don't have guys to really get up in your face and create a turnover. Given that information, it's logical that the defense would hedge against the easy layup and allow more 3 point shots. In fact, opponents are taking 44.9% of their shots from 3, which is ranked 332nd in the country. But they're only making 30.3% of them.

This strategy makes sense given the analytics guy that Pope is. I don't really have an opinion here, the defense is bad and needs to improve. It just feels like our 3 point defense problem is worse than the stats say it is.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

You’re using KP numbers.

Those don’t show the real picture because he doesn’t count offensive rebounds as a possession.

It’s the same for everyone but worse for us because we give up so many offensive rebounds.

Doesn’t really matter. They are just nerd numbers anyway.

You don’t need numbers to see that we don’t guard or rebound.

There’s a lot going into it.

We simply do not have the ability to guard high level players one on one.

And we’re not doing anything schematic to help.

We’re not talking. We’re not rotating. We’re just not rebounding.

We look like a team of freshman with no idea of how to play defense.

Just unfathomable for a team of 5th year guys to have a total lack of understanding defensive principles.

Then to go out there and half ass it is just embarrassing.

No one takes getting punked personally.

 

[The_Answer1313]

When UF hit like 81% from 2 that should have sounded off alarm bells.

Tho it does need to be pointed out a lot of that 3pt FG defense is helped by the non conference. In conference play we are giving up 33% and it's been far worse last few games. That's 10th in the SEC. To go along with the 16th from 2 point FG%.

 

[The_Answer1313]

We are giving up 1.20 points per possession in SEC play.

I can't even begin to describe just how bad that is.

 

[ukcatz12]

You’re using KP numbers.

Those don’t show the real picture because he doesn’t count offensive rebounds as a possession.

Lol. That is completely irrelevant to things like 2P%, 3P% and 3PA%.

 

[ukcatz12]

Tho it does need to be pointed out a lot of that 3pt FG defense is helped by the non conference. In conference play we are giving up 33% and it's been far worse last few games. That's 10th in the SEC. To go along with the 16th from 2 point FG%.

Wouldn't every team's 3 pt FG defense kind of be helped by the non conference though? At least with power conference teams. For what it's worth, our NonCon SOS was ranked 79th, which isn't too bad.

And I think we can live with being ranked 10th in the SEC in 3P% defense. It's the being 16th out of 16th on 2P% that's the killer. I think if this team was 10th in both the offense is good enough to compensate for that.

 

[AJG-15]

Yes, Pope is not Rick to press and create turnovers. The players that were creating turnovers and more important protecting the ball for us were Butler and Kriisa,

Many of the 2 points against us are scored on turnovers or drives to the basket both cause mainly but not having any PG playing.

On the Ole Miss game Our 2-3 zone today looked horrible, hands down, no movement . Was two possessions and Pope went away from it.

Against Arkansas he tried a 1-3-1 which was poorly executed and Arkansas score with a simple move the ball in the corner where a slasher took advantage of our 1at the bottom of zone lack of ability to read the offense.

It’s almost like he didn’t practice the zone at all since the Duke and Gonzaga games.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Wouldn't every team's 3 pt FG defense kind of be helped by the non conference though? At least with power conference teams. For what it's worth, our NonCon SOS was ranked 79th, which isn't too bad.

And I think we can live with being ranked 10th in the SEC in 3P% defense. It's the being 16th out of 16th on 2P% that's the killer. I think if this team was 10th in both the offense is good enough to compensate for that.

Thing about the 3 point FG% defense and I know this is a bit of an unpopular opinion but the general thought is teams have less control with 3 point FG% defense compared to 2.

So yeah you are right. I was just pointing out that the along with the 2pt FG%, we've kind of been getting hit with both recently.

And also maybe we were a bit fortunate our 3 pt FG% was that low to begin with.

 

[The_Answer1313]

Having said this and I know everyone feels the world is falling apart this team was able to knock off a bunch of very good teams with this poor defense.

We were historically bad vs Florida. Gave up the most points per possession since those stats have been tracked.......and yet...........we still won the game.

Even healthy this isn't a recipe for success. You cannot be this bad on one side of the ball and win six games in the NCAA tournament IMO.........but you could still technically make some noise.

 

[FitchandMurray29]

When UF hit like 81% from 2 that should have sounded off alarm bells.

Tho it does need to be pointed out a lot of that 3pt FG defense is helped by the non conference. In conference play we are giving up 33% and it's been far worse last few games. That's 10th in the SEC. To go along with the 16th from 2 point FG%.

Curious what the numbers sans UT game are for 3 point defense in SEC play

 

[KyFanInTenn]

When UF hit like 81% from 2 that should have sounded off alarm bells.

Tho it does need to be pointed out a lot of that 3pt FG defense is helped by the non conference. In conference play we are giving up 33% and it's been far worse last few games. That's 10th in the SEC. To go along with the 16th from 2 point FG%.

So decided to look at some stats from Torvik in light of the 2p FG% you brought up. He categorizes 2s at the rim and in the midrange.

Just in SEC play, opponents are shooting 49.5% from the midrange against us. I mean that's just an insane rate - open or contested. AND we've been able to force 45% of 2-point shots from the midrange.

Just for reference, I believe the average team shoots anywhere from 33-35% in the midrange. The best of teams are usually around 40-42%.

Combine that with the lack of TOs forced, and some shooting variance game to game and it results in where we're at.

Has our defense been bad? Yes, but I have to think we've had some incredibly bad shooting luck.

 

[Wildcat-in-STL]

the first 3 games of the SEC season made Pope panic about fouls being called on us and he went in the wrong direction. he has our players trying too hard not to foul and its causing worse defense than before. What we should be doing is playing rougher, bodying up and sending players to the ground. if Shows and others want to foul out every player, do so in the first half mother truckers and see if ESPN , CBS or whoever is happy with not having a game to keep viewers watching.

dare the refs to call the fouls and be unapologetic for it.

 

[fatguy87]

Combine that with the lack of TOs forced, and some shooting variance game to game and it results in where we're at.

Has our defense been bad? Yes, but I have to think we've had some incredibly bad shooting luck.

We have definitely fallen victim to a spat of bad shooting luck. We aren't contesting 3's any worse in the last couple of games than we did against UT, for example. Our opponents have experienced a good stretch of variance.

Now, we are vulnerable to bouts of hot shooting from opponents because we don't have any other way to end possessions. We don't force turnovers. So when a team is hot, we have no way to generate stops.

 

[Soupbean]

Here are some numbers through tonight's game on our defense this year. We sit 111th in the country at defense efficiency allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions. The only team worse than us in the top 50 is UConn.

But if you look further into the numbers you'll see the issue isn't really our opponents 3 point shooting, it's the two point shooting and lack of turnovers created.

Opponents are shooting 30.3% from 3 against us, which is ranked 33rd best in the country. Opponents are hitting 52.7% of their 2 point FGs against us, which is ranked 244th in the country. We're also generate a TO on only 13.4% of defensive possessions, which is ranked 352nd.

The last two stats kind of make sense given the make up of our team. We have bad on ball defenders who can't stay in front of their guys, leading to our opponents getting the the rim to create a layup or midrange shot easily. We also don't have guys to really get up in your face and create a turnover. Given that information, it's logical that the defense would hedge against the easy layup and allow more 3 point shots. In fact, opponents are taking 44.9% of their shots from 3, which is ranked 332nd in the country. But they're only making 30.3% of them.

This strategy makes sense given the analytics guy that Pope is. I don't really have an opinion here, the defense is bad and needs to improve. It just feels like our 3 point defense problem is worse than the stats say it is.

Yea lack of turnovers equals more possessions and mire possessions is always going to equal more points. Add to that second chance rebound scores too as extra possessions and it gets worse.

The add foul shot discrepancy and worse again.

All three of these have to do with us being less aggressive than the other guys.

 

[CRZ4UK]

What we need to do is cheat like everyone else. We stand 3 feet away from our opponent trying to play good defense.
Others are up in our grill with both hands on us.
We gotta start cheating.