South Carolina might not be having the best season, with a 1-3 record through four games, and the Gamecocks' season isn't going to get any easier with one of the nation's toughest schedules.
But in spite of those early downs, you can bet South Carolina's players and fans badly want to break the five-game losing streak against Kentucky, which has been a black eye in recent years.
Here are some reflections on Kentucky's five consecutive wins against South Carolina, as well as some information about the win streak that might shed some light on what's been happening in the series.
Kentucky's win streak against South Carolina has coincided with the Gamecocks' overall decline ... In other words, it's not just that Kentucky has had South Carolina's number lately. The Gamecocks have not been the same program they were when they dominated this series for well over a decade before UK's present streak.
USC went 33-6 from 2011-2013, finishing 11-2 each season. Kentucky didn't beat any of those Gamecock teams (the Joker era didn't help). The USC teams that Kentucky has defeated over the last five years have a combined record of 32-32. Exactly .500. So while UK's current win streak has a lot to do with the program's own improvements and perhaps certain matchup and stylistic advantages, more than anything it's the result of South Carolina's decline.
In several ways, these teams have been similar ... Both teams are on their backup quarterbacks with Terry Wilson and Jake Bentley out for the season. The Gamecocks roll out Ryan Hilinski, playing in his fourth game and coming off his worst performance as a college player. Kentucky sends out Sawyer Smith, who has been both promising and far too loose with the football, and he's likely to be playing at less than 100-percent because of injuries to his wrist (against Florida) and shoulder (against Mississippi State). While Kentucky has Lynn Bowden and Ahmad Wagner at receiver and South Carolina has Bryan Edwards and Shi Smith, these receiver units have not been consistent through the season. So the pass games have had their moments for both teams, but it has been ugly on both sides as well.
Defensively, both teams have had some standout performers up front. Kentucky's top in the box players have been defensive tackle Calvin Taylor and linebacker DeAndre Square, with the former one of the top pressure men among interior defensive linemen nationally and Square stepping up as one of the more promising young linebackers in the league. South Carolina coach Will Muschamp is happy with the play of defensive linemen Javon Kinlaw and Kobe Smith early in the season. But both teams are sporting a lot of youth and inexperience in the secondary and that has been a problem area for both teams.
Kentucky's Max Duffy and South Carolina's Joseph Charlton have been two of the best punters in college football.
Teams struggling to find identity ... Kentucky had an advantage against most SEC teams in recent years - and this was an equalizer - in that it had an identity. Power football, and last year especially lean on a stout defense in the second half of games. That identity created a formula that allowed Kentucky to control clock, limit plays, and play to its strengths while mitigating the strengths of its opponents. Coming into the season most neutral observers seemed to realize the defense would not be at or really even near the level of last year's unit because of the quality and quantity of the players leaving the program.
But the other issue that has called UK's former identity into question has been the lack of the "ground and pound" aspect on offense. UK rushed for half as many yards against UF in 2019 as it did in the Swamp against the Gators in 2018. The inside run game was lacking against Toledo. And against Mississippi State, when UK was successfully ripping off chunk plays on the ground, the 'Cats got away from the run-heavy mentality in part because it was playing from behind. It has seemed like Kentucky wants to remain a physical team that incorporates more shots downfield, and the offensive line has done its job. But inconsistency at quarterback, receiver, and running back have created the look of a team that, for the first time in about three years, is searching for an identity again.
South Carolina is in something of the same boat, only the Gamecocks have been in that position for quite a while longer than Kentucky. It has leaned on quarterback play, think Jake Bentley, for much longer than Kentucky has. With Bentley out the Gamecocks have had mixed success running the ball, faring well against Alabama and poorly against Missouri, and also mixed success through the air.
In short, these are two offenses that haven't settled on what they're going to be great at. They have each been promising at nearly everything but inconsistent to a high degree.
The home field advantage ... Kentucky did not play well in its first game away from Kroger Field. The Wildcats started poorly and didn't do much of anything well in the first half down in Starkville. It's tough to tell how much of that might have been playing away from home versus an emotional letdown after the Florida loss. But 0-1 is all we know. South Carolina is 1-1 at home with a win against Charleston Southern that doesn't tell us anything and a loss against Alabama ... which also doesn't tell us anything. The Gamecocks have played better at home than on the road or at neutral sites. That much seems fair to establish.
How much of a home field edge will there be? The Gamecocks are 1-3 but South Carolina fans are famously loyal even during hard times, and the added motivation this week is to snap a five-game skid to Kentucky which has shamed the program more than anything other than Clemson's tremendous success on the national scene. Given that it's a night game and South Carolina fans know this team simply must win this game to have much realistic hope of finishing with a winning record - and simply winning this game would not ensure that - you should expect a great atmosphere that will be difficult for the 'Cats to face. A tougher atmosphere than Starkville but one Kentucky has won in the last two trips to Columbia.
Muschamp is in a place Stoops recognizes ... Back in 2016, Mark Stoops was in dire need of a breakthrough. Kentucky hadn't reached a bowl game through the first three years of the Stoops era and the Wildcats had started the 2016 season 1-2 with losses to Southern Miss and Florida and a win against New Mexico State. He got the breakthrough win he needed, beating South Carolina for the second straight season, and UK used that record-leveling win to springboard to a 7-5 regular season, which gave new life to the Stoops era and led to bigger things later. Muschamp has had a 3-9 season with South Carolina but has been more of a regular in the postseason, but there's an undeniable sense that the Gamecocks have gone through a decline period and stabilized at a much less prestigious place in the SEC's pecking order than its fans would like to be in. Making matters worse is Clemson's place atop the sport. USC can't do anything about Clemson anymore than Auburn can do something about Alabama, save for the one head to head per year it gets, but its rational for their fans to aspire to more. Missouri, Kentucky, and Florida have all been trending up more than South Carolina of late. Muschamp does have a sweet buyout that makes the prospect of getting rid of him daunting, but this is a very important game for his future at the school.
But in spite of those early downs, you can bet South Carolina's players and fans badly want to break the five-game losing streak against Kentucky, which has been a black eye in recent years.
Here are some reflections on Kentucky's five consecutive wins against South Carolina, as well as some information about the win streak that might shed some light on what's been happening in the series.
Kentucky's win streak against South Carolina has coincided with the Gamecocks' overall decline ... In other words, it's not just that Kentucky has had South Carolina's number lately. The Gamecocks have not been the same program they were when they dominated this series for well over a decade before UK's present streak.
USC went 33-6 from 2011-2013, finishing 11-2 each season. Kentucky didn't beat any of those Gamecock teams (the Joker era didn't help). The USC teams that Kentucky has defeated over the last five years have a combined record of 32-32. Exactly .500. So while UK's current win streak has a lot to do with the program's own improvements and perhaps certain matchup and stylistic advantages, more than anything it's the result of South Carolina's decline.
In several ways, these teams have been similar ... Both teams are on their backup quarterbacks with Terry Wilson and Jake Bentley out for the season. The Gamecocks roll out Ryan Hilinski, playing in his fourth game and coming off his worst performance as a college player. Kentucky sends out Sawyer Smith, who has been both promising and far too loose with the football, and he's likely to be playing at less than 100-percent because of injuries to his wrist (against Florida) and shoulder (against Mississippi State). While Kentucky has Lynn Bowden and Ahmad Wagner at receiver and South Carolina has Bryan Edwards and Shi Smith, these receiver units have not been consistent through the season. So the pass games have had their moments for both teams, but it has been ugly on both sides as well.
Defensively, both teams have had some standout performers up front. Kentucky's top in the box players have been defensive tackle Calvin Taylor and linebacker DeAndre Square, with the former one of the top pressure men among interior defensive linemen nationally and Square stepping up as one of the more promising young linebackers in the league. South Carolina coach Will Muschamp is happy with the play of defensive linemen Javon Kinlaw and Kobe Smith early in the season. But both teams are sporting a lot of youth and inexperience in the secondary and that has been a problem area for both teams.
Kentucky's Max Duffy and South Carolina's Joseph Charlton have been two of the best punters in college football.
Teams struggling to find identity ... Kentucky had an advantage against most SEC teams in recent years - and this was an equalizer - in that it had an identity. Power football, and last year especially lean on a stout defense in the second half of games. That identity created a formula that allowed Kentucky to control clock, limit plays, and play to its strengths while mitigating the strengths of its opponents. Coming into the season most neutral observers seemed to realize the defense would not be at or really even near the level of last year's unit because of the quality and quantity of the players leaving the program.
But the other issue that has called UK's former identity into question has been the lack of the "ground and pound" aspect on offense. UK rushed for half as many yards against UF in 2019 as it did in the Swamp against the Gators in 2018. The inside run game was lacking against Toledo. And against Mississippi State, when UK was successfully ripping off chunk plays on the ground, the 'Cats got away from the run-heavy mentality in part because it was playing from behind. It has seemed like Kentucky wants to remain a physical team that incorporates more shots downfield, and the offensive line has done its job. But inconsistency at quarterback, receiver, and running back have created the look of a team that, for the first time in about three years, is searching for an identity again.
South Carolina is in something of the same boat, only the Gamecocks have been in that position for quite a while longer than Kentucky. It has leaned on quarterback play, think Jake Bentley, for much longer than Kentucky has. With Bentley out the Gamecocks have had mixed success running the ball, faring well against Alabama and poorly against Missouri, and also mixed success through the air.
In short, these are two offenses that haven't settled on what they're going to be great at. They have each been promising at nearly everything but inconsistent to a high degree.
The home field advantage ... Kentucky did not play well in its first game away from Kroger Field. The Wildcats started poorly and didn't do much of anything well in the first half down in Starkville. It's tough to tell how much of that might have been playing away from home versus an emotional letdown after the Florida loss. But 0-1 is all we know. South Carolina is 1-1 at home with a win against Charleston Southern that doesn't tell us anything and a loss against Alabama ... which also doesn't tell us anything. The Gamecocks have played better at home than on the road or at neutral sites. That much seems fair to establish.
How much of a home field edge will there be? The Gamecocks are 1-3 but South Carolina fans are famously loyal even during hard times, and the added motivation this week is to snap a five-game skid to Kentucky which has shamed the program more than anything other than Clemson's tremendous success on the national scene. Given that it's a night game and South Carolina fans know this team simply must win this game to have much realistic hope of finishing with a winning record - and simply winning this game would not ensure that - you should expect a great atmosphere that will be difficult for the 'Cats to face. A tougher atmosphere than Starkville but one Kentucky has won in the last two trips to Columbia.
Muschamp is in a place Stoops recognizes ... Back in 2016, Mark Stoops was in dire need of a breakthrough. Kentucky hadn't reached a bowl game through the first three years of the Stoops era and the Wildcats had started the 2016 season 1-2 with losses to Southern Miss and Florida and a win against New Mexico State. He got the breakthrough win he needed, beating South Carolina for the second straight season, and UK used that record-leveling win to springboard to a 7-5 regular season, which gave new life to the Stoops era and led to bigger things later. Muschamp has had a 3-9 season with South Carolina but has been more of a regular in the postseason, but there's an undeniable sense that the Gamecocks have gone through a decline period and stabilized at a much less prestigious place in the SEC's pecking order than its fans would like to be in. Making matters worse is Clemson's place atop the sport. USC can't do anything about Clemson anymore than Auburn can do something about Alabama, save for the one head to head per year it gets, but its rational for their fans to aspire to more. Missouri, Kentucky, and Florida have all been trending up more than South Carolina of late. Muschamp does have a sweet buyout that makes the prospect of getting rid of him daunting, but this is a very important game for his future at the school.
