Feelings after TCU series

[backinky2018]

I have to say that I'm pleasantly surprised by this weekend. I know that it's too early to assume long term season success, but I just wanted to leave the weekend with hope. Not only did we surpass expectations, but we won the series and damn near swept it.

I'm looking at the SEC and seeing the following from our schedule:
-Arkansas struggling, barely won their series against a low level team
-Tennessee looks great. Kiilling bad teams and played #1 texas tough.
-South Carolina looks terrible
-Georgia looks pedestrian, beaten at home by arch rival GT 7-0 yesterday.
-Florida looks beatable, losing series to liberty.
-Vandy is vandy. WIll always be tough.
-Mizzou stinks.
-UL looks like a shell of its former self.

There is an NCAA bid there for the taking if we can get our starting pitching figured out.

 

[mrschwump]

Pitching is a major concern for UK. Early returns aren't encouraging.

 

[Crazycat68]

The lefty from Miami, OH pitched a good game 2. This team looks like they can hit 1-9. Figure out the weekend guys and we could pose a threat.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I'm going to do a deeper dive into the stats of the weekend and see what we got and pull out the things I think would be good to highlight. For instance, I don't think we had a ton of strikeouts. I am not sure on that because I haven't looked, but I think that for the most part, we put the ball in play.

 

[backinky2018]

I'm hoping maybe the staff thinks that Hazelwood can become a weekend starter again. He only pitched 1.5 innings this weekend, so maybe they're easing him back in time for SEC play?

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

I know @Comebakatz3 will do a deeper dive but heres what I found.

Game 1: UK struck out 11 times against 4 walks and 4 HBP. UK struck out 11 against 4 walks and 2 HBP
Game 2: UK struck out 5 times against 4 walks and 2 HBP. UK pitchers struck out 7 against only 1 walk
Game 3: UK struck out 12 times against 4 walks. UK struck out 10 and walked 5.

Good in game 2. Games 1 and 3 so-so.

UK hit .384/.291/.324
TCU hit .282/.230/.418

Kentucky had two errors but ultimately could have a couple of more. Never really understood Kentuckys record keeper on some of their decisions.

Ill fully admit, Im still bullish on this group. Just because I refuse to get my hopes up right now. I will say, this tean has zero quit in them and there is a chemistry with them that has sorely been lacking the last few seasons. But winning helps with that. Lets hope this continues in conference play. The Arkansas series is big because you want to start SEC play on a good note. 2 out 3 in Fayetteville would be awesome.

 

[dtjr]

I know @Comebakatz3 will do a deeper dive but heres what I found.

Game 1: UK struck out 11 times against 4 walks and 4 HBP. UK struck out 11 against 4 walks and 2 HBP
Game 2: UK struck out 5 times against 4 walks and 2 HBP. UK pitchers struck out 7 against only 1 walk
Game 3: UK struck out 12 times against 4 walks. UK struck out 10 and walked 5.

Good in game 2. Games 1 and 3 so-so.

UK hit .384/.291/.324
TCU hit .282/.230/.418

Kentucky had two errors but ultimately could have a couple of more. Never really understood Kentuckys record keeper on some of their decisions.

Ill fully admit, Im still bullish on this group. Just because I refuse to get my hopes up right now. I will say, this tean has zero quit in them and there is a chemistry with them that has sorely been lacking the last few seasons. But winning helps with that. Lets hope this continues in conference play. The Arkansas series is big because you want to start SEC play on a good note. 2 out 3 in Fayetteville would be awesome.

I would like some of our guys to be more consistent at the plate. Ritter has come around and of course Estep is hitting very well along with Harris.

I don't understand what we are doing with Fogel and Thrasher yet. Neither one seems comfortable.

We miss Anu at DH, hopefully he is back tomorrow.

 

[KYExtemper]

It seems like our offense is great and we are getting into horse races on offense because pitching is the opposite. I'm not sure if that can hold up as the season progresses.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Well, we have to start with the obvious… Chase Estep. 6 for 12 (.500) with 5 RBIs, a home run and a couple of doubles. Scored a run in every game and worked his way on base regularly. SEC Player of the Week. I gave Estep a whole lot of grief going into this year because last year he was the prime example of being able to hit against non-SEC pitching. I harped on his poor SEC batting average regularly. This is the very thing that will shut me up because my mouth will be too full of crow. He’s hitting .455 on the year and showing more power as well as the ability to hit the gaps. His approach is much better and I expect that will pay dividends.

I mentioned thinking that the strikeout numbers were low. I suppose they felt that way, but they were not. However, I am not overly concerned about them given that the two games with the highest number were the two games we hit the most and had more at bats. Interestingly, the TCU strikeout pitcher struck us out the least. However, I don’t like seeing that we had 28 strikeouts to just 13 walks.

Depth – This team has a whole lot of depth. Anu gets banged up so they move things around and McCarthy starts on Friday and goes 3 for 4 with a couple RBIs. Harris gets banged up and they plug in Felker for the next two games and he goes a combined 2 for 6. Those are solid numbers from backups.

I don’t care for Ritter leading off. I am not sure who you have leading off, maybe he’s the only one, but he just doesn’t strike me as a leadoff guy even now. He went 3 for 13 (.230) over the weekend and scored a couple of runs. However, he had 0 RBIS and drew 0 walks (albeit he did get hit by a pitch a time or two). Also had 4 strikeouts over the course of the weekend. I think his hitting has improved a good deal, but just don’t think he’s a real great get on base type of guy. Again, not sure who you put there with this team though. I think Harris could be that guy. His OBP is .533.

Plastiak doesn’t always hit, but when he does it is going a long way. He had just 3 hits this weekend and 2 of them were home runs, one for a grand slam. 7 RBIs in those 3 hits.

Pitching other than with Williams is pretty all over the place. Bosma struggled against WMU. It happens, but then he pitches an absolute gem this past weekend. Harney gave up 3 runs in his outing on Friday, but then also turned it around entirely to shut the door on them for several innings to allow our offense to get back. All things considered, a team ERA of 4.75 just isn’t good enough right now considering the competition we’ve faced, and in particular Cotto and Stupp having ERAs of 6.00 and 9.58 respectively are going to keep us from winning games. I don’t know what the staff does there. I don’t know if they decide to make Williams a starter again or if they just keep rolling with this and hope Cotto and Stupp find their grooves. Harney could be another candidate as he did respectably in league play a year ago. Options are there if they decide to use them.

I dunno. Hindsight is 20/20 at this point, but I feel like the staff mismanaged Williams/Harney this weekend. I get it that they are the most reliable, but one of them has to be an actual closer and not just two guys that you use as someone to get you 3 innings each game. If UK has Williams in the 9th inning in game 3, then TCU isn’t putting up a 5 spot and UK might very well have a sweep. Instead, we threw Williams for 2 innings in the early game on Saturday and he had to throw 36 pitches. Now, had he only thrown 1 inning, being the same day, I doubt he goes back out, but in a 4 run game, you might try to squeeze an inning out of Strickland or Guilfoil there and then, if needed, get Williams in the 9th if it gets closer. However, to just use him in game 2 was a touch wasteful to me. Use either Harney as a closer and Williams as a stopper or vice-versa. Don’t use them both as stoppers that go 3+ innings and then you can’t use them again that weekend.

Fogel had a good Saturday. 4-6. I think one of his doubles was kind of wind aided, but it still counted for him. I still don’t know about him in that 4 hole spot. Personally, I think that hurts Plastiak. We saw it this weekend… they IBB Plastiak and loaded the bases and went to Fogel (or Fogler if you will). This with just 1 out in the 7th of game 1 and the game tied at 11. Fogel struck out and then Jump flied out and UK left 3 on. That was a huge moment and we luckily overcame it the next inning, but something like that is how you lose games. If I’m an opposing team, I’d feel pretty comfortable pitching around Plastiak and giving him very little to hit and then getting to Fogel. So, I still think he needs to be moved down and that doing so can maybe even make us more dangerous. I don’t know why you aren’t stacking Plastiak and. I think any team, at this point, would be pooping their pants having to face Estep, Plastiak, and Anu in that order. Then you have Jump and Harris (or if you put Ritter there in the 6) back to back and those guys are just hitters and no one will want to face them either. Then have Rubalcaba and Fogel, both who have power, but can also hit to the gaps. Maybe I’m nitpicking though.

 

[Comebakatz3]

I’ve said it before, but Friday felt like a bit of a crap-shoot game. I don’t think you’ll see that pitcher for TCU have those control problems many other times. That being said, we took advantage and never let him get comfortable. So, that was a big deal for us. I don’t know that the game tells us a whole lot about our team because it was such an offshoot for their staff. However, one thing it tells me is that if your pitcher isn’t sharp then this team will punish them. If you throw balls and hang pitches then this team will take advantage time and time again. They’re not popping those up or striking out and letting a pitcher get into the groove of it. They’ll burn them, and that is a big part of this game.

I felt like game 2 was just domination on our part. We went toe to toe with them and just straight up beat them. Their pitcher did pretty well and we just hit him. He only gave up 1 walk, so there wasn’t many freebies. In particular, we got hits when we needed them. Obviously, the 3 run home run by Estep, but Fogel’s wind-aided double also helped score a run and that is the magic of just putting the ball into play and not striking out. That was also us taking advantage of that 1 walk they gave up. Then we had the back to back doubles in the 4th to score our second run. So, putting together extra base hits, taking advantage of the walk. All of that in a pitching dual is how you win games, and we just were better than them in this one. That was great to see. I wonder what a 9 inning game would have been like. UK didn’t score in game 3 until the bottom of the 7th. Those two last innings make a huge difference.

Game three, at least in the beginning kind of felt like the opposite. Cotto is struggling right now finding his control. Guy has some electric stuff, but has to rein in that control. You can look at that first inning and see it. Gave up a couple singles and a walk but then got a strikeout before a wild pitch and a double. So, I felt like they were just sharper than us to start that game. Walker was dominant until that 7th, and probably shouldn’t have come out in that inning to begin with. Still, UK took advantage of the bullpen to get back into it. So, the fight in this game was great to see.

I will also say that the defense UK played was much better this weekend. Had a couple errors, but I think the one given to Harris in game 1 was a tough call against him as that was going to be a tough play regardless. Then a throwing error on Pitre gave up a run really late, but probably not enough to matter given that it was then 11 to 7, so making it 12 wasn’t the issue. So, in that sense we seemed like a different team than we’ve seemed prior to this weekend. I do think it is interesting that Jump is in left field, but when DH became available, the 5th year senior left fielder moves to DH and a converted infielder is moved to LF instead. Also interesting is that Jump is usually one of the first to be pinch ran for. So, just seems like they don't think he's got great speed.

All in all, obviously a very good feeling weekend given that we won 2 and really had a chance to steal that third one at the end. I think the bullpen management kind of hurt us in that last one, but I can understand it in some ways as well. I think this bodes well for the future, at a minimum it grows the confidence.

 

[Comebakatz3]

It seems like our offense is great and we are getting into horse races on offense because pitching is the opposite. I'm not sure if that can hold up as the season progresses.

Which pretty much everyone, myself included, believed it would basically be the exact opposite. I felt like our pitching would be as good, or better than last year and that our hitting would struggle. Shows what I know. lol

 

[enjyretirement2020]

Which pretty much everyone, myself included, believed it would basically be the exact opposite. I felt like our pitching would be as good, or better than last year and that our hitting would struggle. Shows what I know. lol

Maybe Guilliams was the problem? Now with Coggin as the hitting coach, styles change. I think he was a good hitter in college. This team is very mouthy and cocky though, which as I understand is Coggins' style. (irritating) Seems like last year, Mingione held those guys in check. No emotions, just quiet.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Maybe Guilliams was the problem? Now with Coggin as the hitting coach, styles change. I think he was a good hitter in college. This team is very mouthy and cocky though, which as I understand is Coggins' style. (irritating) Seems like last year, Mingione held those guys in check. No emotions, just quiet.

I don’t know. I think that a huge part of it is that a lot of these guys are now seeing high quality pitching for at least second year. Anu, Estep, Plastiak, Church, and Ritter returned after all seeing a good chunk of SEC pitching a year ago. Jump saw high quality pitching in the Pac 12. So, seeing something like TCU isn’t all that new to them and that is valuable. Some people just can’t hit high quality pitching, and I think these guys are proving that they aren’t that way, but that they may have just struggled to adjust to it quickly in year 1 of seeing it.

We saw that with experienced teams that Guilliams did well too, but in 2019 with big turnover and then again in 2021 with a lot of new faces, it was more difficult sledding, especially in league play. I know some of the style is extremely similar. For instance, since Mingione got her he’s loved the suicide/sacrifice squeeze when he has a runner on third. We still do it this year a pretty good chunk. So, at least that sort of thing is coming from Mingione. I am not sure if it is my imagination or what but I do think we are doing more hit and run this year, but that could be a product of feeling more confident in our hitters than we have the past several years, or maybe the radio guys are just mentioning it more even though it was happening. Could just be that we tried it a bunch and weren’t as successful lately. So, it seems like we’re doing it more because I notice going 1st to 3rd or even 1st to home more often because we’re putting the ball in play on those hit and run scenarios.

I know Coach Guill was well liked last year, and that Roszel has been well liked. I’m not sure Coggin had the same admiration a year ago that Guill had. However, this is a lot of new faces, so that attitude could be very different this year.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

Not to be a downer but the TCU series isn’t looking all that impressive right. TCU is being blanked by Louisville 9-0 right now. And before anyone throws shade, I get it. It’s a midweek game.

One thing I want to add though, how is it UK isn’t ranked and according to the polls I looked at not even receiving votes? That’s insane to me.

 

[dtjr]

Not to be a downer but the TCU series isn’t looking all that impressive right. TCU is being blanked by Louisville 9-0 right now. And before anyone throws shade, I get it. It’s a midweek game.

One thing I want to add though, how is it UK isn’t ranked and according to the polls I looked at not even receiving votes? That’s insane to me.

I sort of get the zero votes in the polls because our OC schedule stinks.
We need to go 5-0 over the next week going into SEC play.
Build more confidence which is probably why they set up the schedule like they did.

 

[Big_Blue_1018]

I sort of get the zero votes in the polls because our OC schedule stinks.
We need to go 5-0 over the next week going into SEC play.
Build more confidence which is probably why they set up the schedule like they did.

I could see that side of it.

 

[Comebakatz3]

Not to be a downer but the TCU series isn’t looking all that impressive right. TCU is being blanked by Louisville 9-0 right now. And before anyone throws shade, I get it. It’s a midweek game.

One thing I want to add though, how is it UK isn’t ranked and according to the polls I looked at not even receiving votes? That’s insane to me.

Well, it certainly means that our pitching on Friday and Saturday game 2 look way way worse given that Louisville, who is not exactly having a great year on the mound, is blanking those same hitters. Of course, midweek pitching is much different from weekend pitching, so not a ton of credit given there to UL for hitting a midweek guy.

In terms of polling. I’ll point out again that while all weekend long UK touted that TCU was ranked 8th, I have yet to see or be linked to that poll. Jeff on House of Blue claimed it was from “Collegiate Baseball’s poll.” I found polls from D1Baseball ranking them around 16-18, NCWBA ranking them around 16-18, Baseball America not having them ranked at all and then I did find one that said Collegiate Baseball (or Collegiate Baseball Newspaper) but it too had them around 16-18 (now they’re 28th). I think a coaches poll had them at around 14th. College baseball polling is weird and there are some random sites that do it, so maybe it was out there, but I never saw it. Regardless, them being ranked 8th was a total offshoot and most have them closer to the 16-18 range. So, with them not being a top 10 and with UK being so far out of the top 25 by most polls, I think it makes some sense that we didn’t get ranked.

The most reputable ranking source is D1Baseball. I trust them. Collegiate Baseball Newspaper last week had us ranked 28th. We beat TCU, who was ranked like 18th and they drop to 28th and this week we're not even in the top 30. So, tell me how that one makes sense and is reputable.

WarrenNolan's RPI ranking has us 91st with a SOS of 192nd. We dropped 15 spots since yesterday, but not sure why.

 

[Jeff12wb]

Well, it certainly means that our pitching on Friday and Saturday game 2 look way way worse given that Louisville, who is not exactly having a great year on the mound, is blanking those same hitters. Of course, midweek pitching is much different from weekend pitching, so not a ton of credit given there to UL for hitting a midweek guy.

In terms of polling. I’ll point out again that while all weekend long UK touted that TCU was ranked 8th, I have yet to see or be linked to that poll. Jeff on House of Blue claimed it was from “Collegiate Baseball’s poll.” I found polls from D1Baseball ranking them around 16-18, NCWBA ranking them around 16-18, Baseball America not having them ranked at all and then I did find one that said Collegiate Baseball (or Collegiate Baseball Newspaper) but it too had them around 16-18 (now they’re 28th). I think a coaches poll had them at around 14th. College baseball polling is weird and there are some random sites that do it, so maybe it was out there, but I never saw it. Regardless, them being ranked 8th was a total offshoot and most have them closer to the 16-18 range. So, with them not being a top 10 and with UK being so far out of the top 25 by most polls, I think it makes some sense that we didn’t get ranked.

The most reputable ranking source is D1Baseball. I trust them. Collegiate Baseball Newspaper last week had us ranked 28th. We beat TCU, who was ranked like 18th and they drop to 28th and this week we're not even in the top 30. So, tell me how that one makes sense and is reputable.

WarrenNolan's RPI ranking has us 91st with a SOS of 192nd. We dropped 15 spots since yesterday, but not sure why.

The UKBaseball twitter account actually went and directly replied to two different people and claimed that the #8 ranking was from Perfect Game.
To me, doing stuff like that just comes off as desperate to make your program look better than it is by using exaggeration and fudged/cherry-picked numbers. But, hey, they probably ARE in that mode right now considering the last few years and to give folks anything to hang on to at this point.

 

[Comebakatz3]

The UKBaseball twitter account actually went and directly replied to two different people and claimed that the #8 ranking was from Perfect Game.
To me, doing stuff like that just comes off as desperate to make your program look better than it is by using exaggeration and fudges/cherry-picked numbers. But, hey, they probably ARE in that mode right now considering the last few years and to give folks anything to hang on to at this point.

Okay, I guess this is it then:

College Baseball Top 25: Feb. 28

Weekend 2 of college baseball is in the books as we look to the settling dust to see how the landscape has changed heading into the second week of the season.

www.perfectgame.org

Interesting that they haven't posted one (that I saw) for this week.