It's paywalled with lots of good analysis. UK projected to have 5th best defense in the country, but still only second in the SECE behind Georgia's 3rd ranked defense. Below is a chunk of the Kentucky stuff...
Will newcomers fix Kentucky's offense? After going 2-10 with a No. 81 SP+ ranking in 2012, Stoops' Wildcats went 2-10 and ranked 73rd. The story of his first five years was one of slow growth. But the defense finally clicked, and it's been a different trajectory ever since.
Kentucky, 2013-17: 0.420 win percentage, 58.6 average SP+ ranking (57.2 offense, 66.6 defense)
Kentucky, 2018-22: 0.635 win percentage, 23.6 average SP+ ranking (79.4 offense, 9.4 defense)
Over the past five years, the school has had as many defenders picked in the first three rounds of the NFL draft -- six -- as it had in the 28 years before that. And in 2022, the Wildcats finished fourth in defensive SP+ with a relatively young unit (freshmen such as tackle Deone Walker and safety Jordan Lovett played major roles). Kentucky almost never blitzed or forced the issue, instead handcuffing opponents with brilliant tackling and frustrating zone coverage. That's pretty replicable for 2023, though it will require a couple of new cornerbacks. Keidron Smith and Carrington Valentine were excellent, and while Andru Phillips will likely move from nickel to corner and play really well, that opens a hole at nickel.
Barring some sort of domino effect in the secondary, the defense will probably be excellent again. That the Wildcats went just 7-6 last season with this defense tells you where the primary issues were. Kentucky plummeted from 47th to 97th in offensive SP+ in 2022; quarterback Will Levis was banged up, star back Chris Rodriguez Jr. missed the first month, and three of Levis' top four targets (and his left guard) were freshmen. That's a recipe for regression. Still, nothing went according to plan in UK's first year without offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who had left to become the Los Angeles Rams' OC. Since things didn't really go well with the Rams, either, Coen returned.
Coen was in charge of Kentucky's only top-50 offense since 2016, and he'll have some decent toys to play with. For starters, those key freshmen are sophomores. That includes high-efficiency slot man Barion Brown and left guard Jager Burton, both of whom were star recruits and solid contributors. (Burton is one of four returning linemen.) It also includes another veteran quarterback who, like Levis, battled through a disappointing 2022. Devin Leary comes over from NC State; after a solid 2021 and top-30 Total QBR ranking, Leary's stats regressed in virtually every category last season, then he was lost to injury in October.
Kentucky has averaged eight wins a year over the past half-decade, and that's pretty good living in Lexington. But if the Wildcats have grander ambitions (like, say, a repeat of 2021's 10-win campaign), it will require Coen to capture some magic with Leary like he did with Levis two years ago.
