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ESPN Match-up predictor

Glenn's take

All-American
May 20, 2012
12,165
14,217
113
Does anyone know how they calculate them? The Auburn-Cal game was weird. The point spread was Auburn by 5 which translates to 64% winning percentage. ESPN predictor had Cal had 55% chance to win so 45% for Auburn. How are 2 formulas 19% apart?
 
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