Duke factoid

[ukcatz12]

Yet he is in several threads right now fighting on behalf of Duke.
He might be a true blue Kentucky fan, but he's got a crush on Duke.
Congrats on achieving hitting the 811 post mark. It was a doozy

I'm not fighting on the behalf of Duke. I'm a college basketball fan, it's really the only sport I care about. Duke is one of the best teams this year whether people agree or not. I'm just being fair.

My only point in my original post, which was not really an opinion but a few facts, was that the bad conference talking point has really never proven to be true. Our program's history is full of deep tournament runs and titles despite being in a bad conference. If we didn't really care about our weak conference when it possibly inflated our record a bit, why do we continually mention it for Duke this year?

 

[ukcatz12]

It’s whether or not their schedule has prepared them for the teams they will face in the tournament.

My main point was pushing back against this though. It's never really been true that you needed a tough schedule to prepare you for the tournament. It wasn't true for us in '96 or '12. The ACC was pretty bad last year too and did extremely well in the tournament. The SEC was good last year and did horribly in the tournament.

 

[jwphelps]

View embedded media

Not surprising, Duke plays in a weak ACC

 

[gharding07]

I'll probably put a lot of money for Duke to win their region and then win the title. If they lose, win/win!!

 

[ftp000]

I'm not fighting on the behalf of Duke. I'm a college basketball fan, it's really the only sport I care about. Duke is one of the best teams this year whether people agree or not. I'm just being fair.

My only point in my original post, which was not really an opinion but a few facts, was that the bad conference talking point has really never proven to be true. Our program's history is full of deep tournament runs and titles despite being in a bad conference. If we didn't really care about our weak conference when it possibly inflated our record a bit, why do we continually mention it for Duke this year?

They won't make the elite 8.

 

[DukeDallas9192011015]

- ACC went 4-30 vs the SEC
- EVERY ACC team (including Duke) lost to at least 1 SEC team
- EVERY SEC team beat at least 1 ACC team
- SEC worst team (S.Carolina) beat the 2nd best ACC team (Clemson, who beat Duke)
- 9 of the 12 worst (not in top 100 of NET) Power-5-Conference schools (there are 79 in total) come from the ACC, according to the NET rankings
- 34 mid-majors are ranked ahead of half (9 teams) of the ACC in the NET rankings

My comment comparing Duke and Gonzaga was with respect to playing in a very weak conference for 2 months, and then having to "turn it on" come mid-March.

But do you think that UK being "Gonzaga" from 2010-2015 playing in a super weak SEC hurt them come tournament time?

 

[DukeDallas9192011015]

Duke had all that PLUS coach K in 2019. They had the greatest player in history, if the adoring ESPN could be believed. How'd that go? Flagg ain't Zion , and Sheyer ain't K.

The metrics state that the Zion Duke team was not even one of the 20 best teams of the past 25 years.
That team was talented, yes, but very flawed as they couldn't shoot. This team is much better than the Zion team.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

The metrics state that the Zion Duke team was not even one of the 20 best teams of the past 25 years.
That team was talented, yes, but very flawed as they couldn't shoot. This team is much better than the Zion team.

I hate your school with a burning passion and I hope they lose to a 16 seed…that said, I agree 2025 Duke > 2019 Duke.

 

[ralphdaltonfan]

People are really letting their anti-Duke bias get in the way of evaluating their team this year. I get it, Duke might be the most annoying team in college basketball. But the weak conference argument is really overblown.

Gonzaga plays in a weak conference and it's never hurt them in the tournament. They have the longest consecutive sweet 16 streak and recently got to two Final Fours and a title game.

Houston was supposed to be overrated because they played in the AAC. "Wait until they get to the Big 12 and they'll learn what a real conference looks like," everyone said. Well they just won two straight conference titles.

Our 2012 title team played two ranked games in conference, both against Florida. Our 1996 title team played one ranked team in conference.

If you're banking on Duke being overrated because of their easy competition you're going to be disappointed. Everything about them is elite and they're ranked #1 in the NET, Kenpom, and Barttorik. Advanced metrics aren't everything, but when everything is in this strong of an agreement it's impossible that they're all that wrong. Duke is elite this year and probably at minimum the second best team in the country.

I agree this year's Duke team is far more talented and better than the previous years of their overrated and talent lacking teams. That being said--your advanced metrics can be skewed when you beat up on really bad teams. Now to their credit they are doing what they should be doing and that is beating the living snot out of them. That's impressive and I've said from day one that this would be a very good Duke team.

That being said. when you look how Kentucky/Kansas are middle of the pack in the SEC/Big XII and when Duke faced Clemson they lost.....there's also some truth to speculation that they'd not have the record or position they currently have if they were in a more challenging conference. Think Duke would win plenty of those games too--but they'd have to compete and not coast and just overwhelm opponents with their talent as you see in the watered down ACC.

Only thing that I think needs to be taken into account. You will see a heavy emphasis on the fact Duke beat Auburn early in the year as the end all of the justification to place them as the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and that's absurd seeing how all year we've been told how elite the SEC Conference has been. I'd say Auburn or Florida should be the #1 overall seed if they win the SEC Tournament. I'm also a strong believer that Auburn, Florida, Duke and UH should be the #1 seeds and this strange push for Michigan State late is the typical Big Ten Al Jazeera like hype that somehow has Nebraska on the NCAA "bubble" from their network talking heads but they are 1 game this weekend from being out of the Big Ten Tournament.

 

[Fitch44]

The metrics state that the Zion Duke team was not even one of the 20 best teams of the past 25 years.
That team was talented, yes, but very flawed as they couldn't shoot. This team is much better than the Zion team.

Stop with all this BS. They were not “very flawed.”
Most were picking them to win the title.
They should not have lost to MichSt, and they should not have e had to luck their way to a win over UCF (that uber talented team would have lost in round of 32 if Dawkins son converted the alley oop late).
Ball hog Barrett took so many more shots than Zion that season and that is on shiteshefski.
No excuse for that team to not make it out of their region.
Nice try trying to dummy down that team.

 

[ftp000]

The metrics state that the Zion Duke team was not even one of the 20 best teams of the past 25 years.
That team was talented, yes, but very flawed as they couldn't shoot. This team is much better than the Zion team.

That certainly wasn't the story the talking heads were telling at the time. I'm guessing you were right there with them. And when I said Zion was the greatest of all time, my tongue was firmly implanted in my cheek.

 

[yoshukai]

But do you think that UK being "Gonzaga" from 2010-2015 playing in a super weak SEC hurt them come tournament time?

We’ll see. But I’m pretty sure all of those teams had a much better record than 2-2 against ranked opponents.

EDIT: Looked it up . We were 41-15 against ranked teams in those years. Don’t know how many of those games were in the NCAA tournament but , we were playing ranked teams. The only year close to as few as Duke has played this year was 2013 when we were 2-3 and we missed the tournament.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

I think it has been pretty obvious that two teams are better than the rest this season: Duke and Auburn. I won’t be surprised if those two meet in the championship game like Gonzaga-Baylor in 2021, which was another year where two teams were far better than everyone else

 

[ftp000]

I think it has been pretty obvious that two teams are better than the rest this season: Duke and Auburn. I won’t be surprised if those two meet in the championship game like Gonzaga-Baylor in 2021, which was another year where two teams were far better than everyone else

I'm gonna assume you got that handle by losing a sports bet.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

I'm gonna assume you got that handle by losing a sports bet.

Creative.

 

[bthaunert]

This year Duke is Gonzaga.
Let's hope they end their season like every Gonzaga team (w/ a loss, usually earlier than their seeding suggests).

Such a myth about Gonzaga not living up to their seed (and lots of people believe it). Their last 10 NCAA appearances:

2024 - 5 seed - made it further than seed should
2023 - 3 seed - made it further than seed should
2022 - 1 seed - lost one round earlier than seed should
2021 - 1 seed - made it as far as seed suggests
2019 - 1 seed - lost one round earlier than seed should
2018 - 4 seed - made it as far as seed suggests
2017 - 1 seed - made it as far as seed suggests
2016 - 11 seed - made it further than seed should
2015 - 2 seed - made it as far as seed suggests
2014 - 8 seed - made it as far as seed suggests

So, in 8 out of 10 years, they have made it as far, or further, than they were supposed to based on seed.

 

[Cats192]

People are really letting their anti-Duke bias get in the way of evaluating their team this year. I get it, Duke might be the most annoying team in college basketball. But the weak conference argument is really overblown.

Gonzaga plays in a weak conference and it's never hurt them in the tournament. They have the longest consecutive sweet 16 streak and recently got to two Final Fours and a title game.

Houston was supposed to be overrated because they played in the AAC. "Wait until they get to the Big 12 and they'll learn what a real conference looks like," everyone said. Well they just won two straight conference titles.

Our 2012 title team played two ranked games in conference, both against Florida. Our 1996 title team played one ranked team in conference.

If you're banking on Duke being overrated because of their easy competition you're going to be disappointed. Everything about them is elite and they're ranked #1 in the NET, Kenpom, and Barttorik. Advanced metrics aren't everything, but when everything is in this strong of an agreement it's impossible that they're all that wrong. Duke is elite this year and probably at minimum the second best team in the country.

For all of Gonzaga’s kenpom dominance, they’ve never won it all.

If Duke’s aspirations are the Elite 8, they’ll probably be ok.

If they want to win it all, I absolutely think the lack of competition matters later in the tournament.

 

[ftp000]

For all of Gonzaga’s kenpom dominance, they’ve never won it all.

If Duke’s aspirations are the Elite 8, they’ll probably be ok.

If they want to win it all, I absolutely think the lack of competition matters later in the tournament.

Looking at the projected 8 seeds, I doubt they make it out of the second round.

 

[canebreak]

I think it has been pretty obvious that two teams are better than the rest this season: Duke and Auburn. I won’t be surprised if those two meet in the championship game like Gonzaga-Baylor in 2021, which was another year where two teams were far better than everyone else

I not sure. Florida looks pretty darn good.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

I not sure. Florida looks pretty darn good.

They would be potentially in that category but we will see

 

[ukcatz12]

For all of Gonzaga’s kenpom dominance, they’ve never won it all.

If Duke’s aspirations are the Elite 8, they’ll probably be ok.

If they want to win it all, I absolutely think the lack of competition matters later in the tournament.

Winning it all is really damn hard. Gonzaga has recently made a Final Four and a title game. I don't think if they were in a better conference it would have pushed them over the edge from title game loser to title game winner.

And again, the SEC has been garbage plenty of seasons where we've won the title. If you're a great team it simply doesn't make a difference come tournament time.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

Winning it all is really damn hard. Gonzaga has recently made a Final Four and a title game. I don't think if they were in a better conference it would have pushed them over the edge from title game loser to title game winner.

And again, the SEC has been garbage plenty of seasons where we've won the title. If you're a great team it simply doesn't make a difference come tournament time.

UConn has won back to back titles in the Big Least. I never once thought UConn is destroying everyone because they played Marquette, Creighton and then a bunch of mid major level teams

 

[TheDude73]

The metrics state that the Zion Duke team was not even one of the 20 best teams of the past 25 years.
That team was talented, yes, but very flawed as they couldn't shoot. This team is much better than the Zion team.

So how does this work where Duke fans randomly pop in from their board on literally any thread even mentioning Duke?

Do you set up some kind of notification to alert you the moment someone types the word "Duke" into a Rafters message?

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

So how does this work where Duke fans randomly pop in from their board on literally any thread even mentioning Duke?

Do you set up some kind of notification to alert you the moment someone types the word "Duke" into a Rafters message?

Mods should be banning these Duke people. It is getting out of control frankly

 

[the nail at the foul line]

UL is 1-4 vs ranked teams.

UL is 24-2 outside the SEC.

 

[Blueheart32]

They won't make the elite 8.

Avatar bet?

 

[Blueworld_3.0]

This Dook team has the look of one of Calipari's Memphis teams. Heck, maybe all of them. They beat up on a bunch of weak conference teams, slowly worked their way up the polls and appeared to be a juggernaut heading into the NCAA-T.
Remind me again how many titles Memphis has won?

 

[DukeDallas9192011015]

This Dook team has the look of one of Calipari's Memphis teams. Heck, maybe all of them. They beat up on a bunch of weak conference teams, slowly worked their way up the polls and appeared to be a juggernaut heading into the NCAA-T.
Remind me again how many titles Memphis has won?

Memphis has won 0 titles. Though they had the title won in 2008 if they could shoot free throws. This Duke team shoots 78% from the FT line which is 19th in the country. Knueppel is 90% and Flagg is 80%. I don't see a resemblance at all. Those Memphis teams were all athleticism and no shooting.

The weak competition has been beaten like a dead horse. Gonzaga generally goes further than their seed suggests. Villanova and UCONN have won 4 titles over the past 10 years, and the Big East is never great.

 

[JonathanW]

But do you think that UK being "Gonzaga" from 2010-2015 playing in a super weak SEC hurt them come tournament time?

First of all, the ACC this year may be the worst Power 5 conference since the 90's or 80's. HALF the league (9 teams) not even inside the top 100!

I can't look at the NET rankings that far back (it didn't exist yet), so I looked at the Sagarin rankings (which are more trustworthy than are Pomeroy's). I'm not doing 2013 since UK was not in tournament that year.

ACC 2025: 1 team in top 20; 33% of league (6 teams) are ranked 1-61, 33% are from 72-106, and 33% are 127-230; 9 of 18 outside top 100

SEC 2010: 2 teams in top 20; 33% of league (4 teams) were 3-46, 33% were 51-81, and 33% were 91-181; 3 of 12 outside top 100

SEC 2011: 2 teams in top 20; 33% of league (4 teams) were 5-48, 33% were 55-104, and 33% were 116-229; 5 of 12 outside top 100

SEC 2012: 3 (25%) teams in top 20; 33% of league (4 teams) were 1-30, 33% were 74-98, and 33% were 109-160; 4 of 12 outside top 100

SEC 2014: 2 teams in top 10, 3 in top 20; 36% of league (5 teams) were 3-57, 29% (4 teams) were 67-87, and 36% were 105-187; 5 of 14 outside top 100

SEC 2015: 1 team in top 20; 36% of league (5 teams) were 1-47, 29% were 50-59, and 36% were 70-179; 3 of 14 outside top 100

Summary:
SEC all 5 years was marginally better than ACC 2025.
In 2010, 9 of 12 were in the top 91, whereas only 9 of 18 ACC are this year.
In 2011, it is closer, SEC had 2 really bad teams as bad as the worst 2 in ACC this year, but still had 7 of 12 in top 80 (whereas ACC only has 7 of 18 in top 80).
In 2012, SEC had 4 top 30 teams, ACC has 3. UK played 5 games vs those other 3 top 30 teams. Duke will play only 2 games vs the other 2 top 30 teams.
In 2014, SEC expanded basically adding 2 teams in the 105-107 range compared to the 2010 season. Still 9 of 14 in top 87, ACC has only 9 of 18. So closer to ACC this year, but not quite that bad.
In 2015, SEC had 11 of 14 in top 84, ACC only has 9 of 18.
Thus Duke is a bigger Gonzaga in that respect (conference competition) than was UK any of those seasons.

2010, UK had a dominant starting 5 of John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, Darius Miller, Patrick Patterson & Demarcus Cousins, with a solid bench. Yet UNDERACHIEVED in the NCAA-T (#1 seed), losing an E8 game to WV due to bad 3pt shooting and lack of adjustment to zone defense. So yeah, possibly "being Gonzaga" did hurt that team.
2011, UK had a very good top 6, but did not go any deeper than that. Knocked off the 1 seed making it to the F4. So no "Gonzaga effect" there.
2012, UK had a dominant top 6 led by a dominant player (Davis), and the consensus was it would be either UK or UNC. This is probably the team Duke most wants to be like, and achieve at the same level.
2014, UK had a lot of talent, young talent, on this team, but they underachieved due to that youth most of the year. Then they overachieved in the NCAA-T, thus no "Gonzaga effect".
2015, UK had a historic level of talent, and until the Poythress injury in December looked like was going to have a historic season. Almost still did. Even though they made it to the Final 4, they struggled in E8 game before losing in F4, in what would be considered an underachievement. So yes, possibly "being Gonzaga" did hurt this team too.

Conclusion:
The ACC is worse this year than the SEC was in any of those years you listed (from 2010-2015, including 5 E8 or better seasons). In 2 of those 5 seasons UK underachieved possibly "being Gonzaga", in 2 of them they over-achieved, and in the 5th they did what they were supposed to do.

 

[gharding07]

This Dook team has the look of one of Calipari's Memphis teams. Heck, maybe all of them. They beat up on a bunch of weak conference teams, slowly worked their way up the polls and appeared to be a juggernaut heading into the NCAA-T.
Remind me again how many titles Memphis has won?

In the kenpom era, Duke's SOS is too low to win a title. I can't remember what the threshold is but is sure as hell isn't in the 60s.

 

[bthaunert]

I was curious (and am a stats geek) so I looked at the last 10 champions and their record against top 25 teams during the regular season:

2024 UConn: 6-2
2023 UConn: 3-4
2022 Kansas: 4-4
2021 Baylor: 7-1
2019 Virginia: 8-2
2018 Villanova: 3-0
2017 UNC: 6-4
2016 Villanova: 3-4
2015 Duke: 7-1
2014 UConn: 4-4

So, 3 times in the last 10 years, teams have had only 3 wins against top 25 teams in the regular season.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

In the kenpom era, Duke's SOS is too low to win a title. I can't remember what the threshold is but is sure as hell isn't in the 60s.

Man, I sure hope so. If we don’t win it, I’d love for Auburn to win it instead of Duke.

 

[fatguy87]

In the kenpom era, Duke's SOS is too low to win a title. I can't remember what the threshold is but is sure as hell isn't in the 60s.

The most recent comparison regarding SOS and performance would be the 2021 Gonzaga team. They dominated a weak schedule and eventually lost in the tile.

Further back, the 90-91 UNLV is a point of reference. This year's Duke team and that UNLV team have similar SRS. That UNLV team played a weaker schedule and then lost in the title.

Seems like teams that dominate a weak schedule to the level of Duke tend to do relatively well in the tournament.

 

[_TrueBlue84_]

Let's face it: Duke can't get wins over ranked opponents when there are no ranked opponents in their conference. If you think that's laughable, I would just point out that for decades UK was often one of only a couple ranked teams in the SEC. That did not stop us from often times dominating in the postseason.

I hate Duke as much as anyone, but that's a good team this year. I won't be surprised if they make the Final Four. Of course, I'll be ecstatic if they lose in the first weekend.

I think this is the important point to be made. You can say that the ACC is weak and Duke has not played anyone while at the same time recognizing that Duke is a good team and should do okay in the tourney.

 

[gharding07]

The most recent comparison regarding SOS and performance would be the 2021 Gonzaga team. They dominated a weak schedule and eventually lost in the tile.

Further back, the 90-91 UNLV is a point of reference. This year's Duke team and that UNLV team have similar SRS. That UNLV team played a weaker schedule and then lost in the title.

Seems like teams that dominate a weak schedule to the level of Duke tend to do relatively well in the tournament.

It's hit or miss. Ask Witchita St lol.

 

[ukcatz12]

In the kenpom era, Duke's SOS is too low to win a title. I can't remember what the threshold is but is sure as hell isn't in the 60s.

Pre tournament or post tournament? Because if Duke makes a deep run that SOS will jump quite a bit.

I just looked and Baylor’s was 54th after the tournament. I bet Duke’s wouldn’t be any worse than that if they made a run to the title game and played good teams along the way.

 

[gharding07]

Pre tournament or post tournament? Because if Duke makes a deep run that SOS will jump quite a bit.

I just looked and Baylor’s was 54th after the tournament. I bet Duke’s wouldn’t be any worse than that if they made a run to the title game and played good teams along the way.

Everything is pre tournament.

 

[ukcatz12]

Everything is pre tournament.

The Kenpom rankings for previous years are all post-tournament.