I think that might be on the table for the Big and SEC, but I would imagine there would be some hard feelings from the ACC and Big12 by the teams left behind. I could see those conferences forming BB conferences for the ones that got in on the football deal and the ones who did not.
Dennis Dodd on SEC- Big 10 power grab
- Thread starter Smashcat
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ESPN signed the ACC to a long term contract that is currently close to 50% under market value. I would argue there is close to a zero percent chance they will rip up that deal without a list of variables that has to fall into place first, so given the ACC has to dissolve in order for any movement to begin, I would not hold my breath for ESPN to be the catalyst.A majority of schools leaving isn't needed to kill the ACC. One entity by itself can decide to kill the ACC, and their time to do it is in 10 months.
Know who? ESPN.
How? The vaunted ESPN ACC TV agreement that every media guy has cited for years that lasts until 2035....doesn't. ESPN can kill it after 2027. And if they decide that, they will notify the ACC in Jan 2025.
ACC Football
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Try & tell me how any judge, even in North Carolina Court, will rule FSU owes $550M in forfeited grant of rights....if there are no longer any ESPN TV rights to grant?
Again, like I said above this isn't about SEC vs Big 10, it is Fox vs ESPN. IMO next year ESPN notifies ACC it is terminating the TV deal. Then 4 to 6 ACC schools go to the SEC after 2027. So ESPN can keep FSU from becoming an unrestricted free agent, who can be scooped up by Fox & the Big 10. Clemson, North Carolina, prob NC St & VA Tech come along as a bonus.
Then remnants of the ACC get picked over by Fox/Big 10, Miami, Geo Tech, Pitt, Duke, the schools with good academic reps.
If all this shakes out it will be damn hard for the Doamers to remain on the sidelines
Good post. Though I don't get how ESPN ending ACC TV agreement keeps FSU from selecting to go to B1G over SEC.A majority of schools leaving isn't needed to kill the ACC. One entity by itself can decide to kill the ACC, and their time to do it is in 10 months.
Know who? ESPN.
How? The vaunted ESPN ACC TV agreement that every media guy has cited for years that lasts until 2035....doesn't. ESPN can kill it after 2027. And if they decide that, they will notify the ACC in Jan 2025.
ACC Football
Try & tell me how any judge, even in North Carolina Court, will rule FSU owes $550M in forfeited grant of rights....if there are no longer any ESPN TV rights to grant?
Again, like I said above this isn't about SEC vs Big 10, it is Fox vs ESPN. IMO next year ESPN notifies ACC it is terminating the TV deal. Then 4 to 6 ACC schools go to the SEC after 2027. So ESPN can keep FSU from becoming an unrestricted free agent, who can be scooped up by Fox & the Big 10. Clemson, North Carolina, prob NC St & VA Tech come along as a bonus.
Then remnants of the ACC get picked over by Fox/Big 10, Miami, Geo Tech, Pitt, Duke, the schools with good academic reps.
If all this shakes out it will be damn hard for the Doamers to remain on the sidelines
And how much is ACC tv worth to ESPN if they do nothing? and FSU via courts & private equity funding leaves for the Big 10 & Fox/CBS/NBC? What's that do to the ACC tv network ratings & advertising $$?
FSU is *going* to leave folks, it is a done deal. There is no reconciliation possible. only questions is, how much it costs and where they land. Everyone knows this reality, so the response plans are being formulated.
They have to come up with the funding, they haven't been able to do that yet or they would be gone now. Buying 10-12 college players is one thing, coming up with 500m is another. This entire thing is a money grab by FSU, winning a championship is no longer their focus. They have a much better chance of winning a championship from the ACC than the SEC or Big. In the BIg they would be fighting Oregon, Washington, PSU for the 3rd spot, in the SEC they would be dealing with 6-8 teams for 3 playoff spots. Staying in the ACC, its them and Clemson for the 2 spots.
Agreed but it is an indicator on fanbase support. Some of the teams that were higher or lower were kind of weird until you look at stadium capacity and bowl game attendance. Like GaTech fans lipping a month ago. GT's attendance is barely better than WKU... LOL. They can brag about how good they were in the 80's but people just don't support that school like they used to.
I agree with others that around 32...30... 25.... we kind of start getting close to cutoff. It would also depend on if bball and football go together or football breaks off on its own. We probably need around 40 to make a football only conference just due to population and alumni base.
The difference in payout is going to force more schools to jump ship on the ACC, or Espn is going to have to have to double the ACC payout... and that conference just isn't worth double. Even schools like Pitt and BC are well known and have a history but they aren't a huge draw even in their own state. Those are pro sports towns and only passively follow college.
This is what people aren't getting. People are thinking GOR is forcing FSU to accept $110million less over the next 3 years come hell or high water. FSU has already said they see staying another 10 years as a death sentence for their program. They'll eat whatever bitter pill they have to, to leave. Once they leave ACC fans think they are getting the same payout spread over fewer teams... but TV viewers go down without FSU in your conf. The ACC is already seen a tier 2 conf. I could see them even going Big12 if the SEC and Big10 say "nope". Just too much money out there to pretend its still 1993.
That is only true for a couple more years. After that the money disparity gets soooo wide that they know they are done. I watched an interview with a board of trustees member who said exactly that.
They can't eject teams from the Big 10 or SEC and wouldn't pull a stunt like that anyway. What they could in theory do is try to craft a new conference in which a Vanderbilt or a Rutgers might not get invited. I seriously doubt that the powers that be are that hellbent on killing a golden goose, which is precisely what happens if they try to screw with things like you are predicting.
I am not really predicting, just an opinion of where I think we are heading. Not sure what you are talking about with killing the Golden goose. We no longer have a power five, or even a power 4, it's a clear cut power 2 and the rest are grabbing up what they can. Why else would the ACX and Big12 agree to split 32% of playoff money while the BIG and SEC split 58% ? I believe they were afraid of being shut out completely.
It was the college presidents that voted to accept those terms. When FSU comes up with the cash to get out of what has to be a near air tight contract I think they bail. But so far all they have done is pitch a tantrum and make threats.
Well well we'll, look who is joining in the fun FSU is having
ACC dissolution with best football schools to the SEC in Jan 2025, write it in ink & remember ya boy told you about it
ACC dissolution with best football schools to the SEC in Jan 2025, write it in ink & remember ya boy told you about it
I know all of this is driven by football, but I think theyd be dumb to leave out mens basketball.
'March Madness', on its own, generates over a Billion dollars every year. However, as is the NCAA keeps over 900 mil of it. You guys are talking about a 64 team super conference...how many teams are in the NCAA tourney again? Would it demand more in the same format if it were the 64 biggest universities?
As it stands, the tourney would be worth $15m per school without the ncaa. The NBA media rights deal is $24B. Thats a lot of meat left on the bone if this is what they want to do.
'March Madness', on its own, generates over a Billion dollars every year. However, as is the NCAA keeps over 900 mil of it. You guys are talking about a 64 team super conference...how many teams are in the NCAA tourney again? Would it demand more in the same format if it were the 64 biggest universities?
As it stands, the tourney would be worth $15m per school without the ncaa. The NBA media rights deal is $24B. Thats a lot of meat left on the bone if this is what they want to do.
I think when UK played UNC in bball we only had 3 million viewers. WVU played UNC in a meaningless bowl game and got 3.5 million views.
Basketball is going to have to change to keep up with football... namely the 1 and done. You don't have any stars in college ball. Everyone goes pro as soon as they can. The nba is killing their feeder system out of some sense of helping the players... but they are killing their game.
So far all FSU and CU have done is rattle Sabres and file suit, anyone can talk and file suit. They haven't done anything that will cost them cash, like breaking the contract, canceling games and signing with the Big or SEC.
Signing with the SEC or B1G where they will have to ironically sign away their GOR. They’re definitely trustworthy and will live up to all of their agreements with their new conference… this time.
Don't worry about FSU & Clemson lawsuits
The next important date is Feb 2025. That's when ESPN can decide it will not continue the ACC tv contract beyond 2026-2027.
If there is no TV contract....how is there a Grant of Rights that FSU & Clemson or whoever are violating by leaving?
ESPN will move to keep valuable TV brands under its contracts. And not on Fox/CBS/NBC. A move of the best CFB products from the ACC to SEC happens early 2025. FSU, Clem, UNC, NCSt. The next best with good academics go to the Big 10. Miami, Geo Tech, Pity, Duke. Whatever is left goes to Big 12.
The next important date is Feb 2025. That's when ESPN can decide it will not continue the ACC tv contract beyond 2026-2027.
If there is no TV contract....how is there a Grant of Rights that FSU & Clemson or whoever are violating by leaving?
ESPN will move to keep valuable TV brands under its contracts. And not on Fox/CBS/NBC. A move of the best CFB products from the ACC to SEC happens early 2025. FSU, Clem, UNC, NCSt. The next best with good academics go to the Big 10. Miami, Geo Tech, Pity, Duke. Whatever is left goes to Big 12.
I don't think SEC takes State and UNC, not sure they want either over Miami or GT. If we want to keep the best football title need to keep Big out of FL and GA. Only way Big is competitive is with talent from the SEC footprint. Right now only 2 have much success, but with 2 teams in the deep south would be alot of exposure. Don't think it would hurt UGA,UF, Bama or AU too bad, but really hurt teams that come after the 2nd tier kids.
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