Context for How Good Oklahoma Is

[aceman509]

Seeing more people than I expected try to downplay the win by simply saying Oklahoma is 4-11 and at the bottom of the conference. This does not really do Oklahoma's quality level justice, so I wanted to pull some numbers and put it into context.

I used the Massey Composite Rankings (highly recommend) which take every sort of ranking you find out there, both computer and human, and then combine them to give an average ranking. I feel this is the best measure of how good a team is compared to everyone else in the country.

Oklahoma is currently 49th in the country, which is 14th in the SEC. Here is where they would stand in the other major conferences:

Big East: 5th
ACC: 6th
Big 12: 9th
Big Ten: 11th (note that the conference has 18 teams)

I also wanted to compare where Oklahoma would fall in previous years in the SEC. We all know the SEC has gotten a ton better, but this illustrates just how much. I pulled numbers from our 2 best teams of the last 15 years, and then 2019 and 2022 randomly to get a sense of evolution of the SEC overtime. Here is where Oklahoma would stand:

2012: 5th
2015: 7th
2019: 8th
2022: 9th

Are Oklahoma world beaters? Absolutely not. But in context, they are are middle of the road to above average SEC team from 10 years ago. We used to lose to teams like that on the road all the time.

 

[BIG BLUE GURU]

And they are a team desperate right now trying to stay in the NCAA tourney. We got their best shot on the road. That means something

 

[Creed Bratton]

Don't forget that Oklahoma has played 3 OOC games against teams that are currently ranked and in the top 2 in their league from the ACC (U of L), Big 10 (Michigan) and Big 12 (Arizona) and they are 3-0 against those ranked teams.

 

[ukwazoo]

They're very inconsistent. Can beat good teams and lose to bad ones.

 

[JohnnyGreen1975]

And they are a team desperate right now trying to stay in the NCAA tourney. We got their best shot on the road. That means something

Agree. Oklahoma desperately needed that game and played like it. It was a tournament style game. We are ready for those early mid-major games where teams will fight like this.

 

[blue cincy]

They're very inconsistent. Can beat good teams and lose to bad ones.

Sort of sounds like Kentucky. But not bad teams, just middling teams. We could win Saturday. It will depend on officiating and if our guys show up (which they have against the top teams), Alabama being the only top 10 to really know how to beat us. Hopefully Auburn is not on a heater Saturday. GO BIG BLUE!!!

 

[Creed Bratton]

Sort of sounds like Kentucky. But not bad teams, just middling teams. We could win Saturday. It will depend on officiating and if our guys show up (which they have against the top teams), Alabama being the only top 10 to really know how to beat us. Hopefully Auburn is not on a heater Saturday. GO BIG BLUE!!!

I agree that Bama is a matchup nightmare for us. Our guys do tend to show up when the bright lights are on though.

 

[blue cincy]

I agree that Bama is a matchup nightmare for us. Our guys do tend to show up when the bright lights are on though.

With a healthy Butler and Robinson it is a different game. Game 1 in Rupp is 2 plays late in the game from a different outcome.

 

[Dontworryboutit23]

Oklahoma is Ight. They weren’t very good. They have 2 good players, but overall they aren’t that good of a team. Still a good win by Kentucky.

 

[VAWildcat15]

Also I have to imagine Oklahoma’s computer metrics would look a lot better if they got to play a soft ACC schedule.

 

[jwphelps]

Seeing more people than I expected try to downplay the win by simply saying Oklahoma is 4-11 and at the bottom of the conference. This does not really do Oklahoma's quality level justice, so I wanted to pull some numbers and put it into context.

I used the Massey Composite Rankings (highly recommend) which take every sort of ranking you find out there, both computer and human, and then combine them to give an average ranking. I feel this is the best measure of how good a team is compared to everyone else in the country.

Oklahoma is currently 49th in the country, which is 14th in the SEC. Here is where they would stand in the other major conferences:

Big East: 5th
ACC: 6th
Big 12: 9th
Big Ten: 11th (note that the conference has 18 teams)

I also wanted to compare where Oklahoma would fall in previous years in the SEC. We all know the SEC has gotten a ton better, but this illustrates just how much. I pulled numbers from our 2 best teams of the last 15 years, and then 2019 and 2022 randomly to get a sense of evolution of the SEC overtime. Here is where Oklahoma would stand:

2012: 5th
2015: 7th
2019: 8th
2022: 9th

Are Oklahoma world beaters? Absolutely not. But in context, they are are middle of the road to above average SEC team from 10 years ago. We used to lose to teams like that on the road all the time.

OU beat some very good teams in their out of conference schedule, SEC is just that tough.

 

[ManitouDan]

2 good players and ?? I'm not buying they are that good . They are 13th in a 16 team league . We shall see how they play out . In 30 days come back to this thread and see .

 

[WeWant9]

2 good players and ?? I'm not buying they are that good . They are 13th in a 16 team league . We shall see how they play out . In 30 days come back to this thread and see .

How often is the 13th place team considered a bubble team? I don’t think OU is some world beater, but I agree with others that if they weren’t in the SEC they’d be doing pretty well and firmly in the tournament.

 

[BlueSince92]

Hmmmm.

Honestly I took them way more seriously when I thought of them as the third worst team in the SEC than when I tried to picture them as the sixth best team in the ACC.

Either way they clearly played out of their mind last night. It would be silly to devalue their performance or our victory based on their ranking and ratings.

Rankings and ratings only ever mean just so much and that is literally why we play the games. Sometimes you’re just the 1980 USA Olympic Hockey Team. Last night Oklahoma practically was—and we were better.

 

[aceman509]

Also I have to imagine Oklahoma’s computer metrics would look a lot better if they got to play a soft ACC schedule.

Any computer ranking thats worth anything, which is pretty much all of them used in this composite, adjust for opponent strength and pace. If you play a softer schedule then you're going to get punished if you aren't winning all of your games by double digits

 

[aceman509]

Hmmmm.

Honestly I took them way more seriously when I thought of them as the third worst team in the SEC than when I tried to picture them as the sixth best team in the ACC.

Either way they clearly played out of their mind last night. It would be silly to devalue their performance or our victory based on their ranking and ratings.

Rankings and ratings only ever mean just so much and that is literally why we play the games. Sometimes you’re just the 1980 USA Olympic Hockey Team. Last night Oklahoma practically was—and we were better.

ACC is weird because it is simultaneously better and worse than you think it is.

They have 3 pretty legit teams in Duke, Clemson and Louisville. Then a few bubbly quality teams in SMU, UNC, Wake and Pitt.

Where they really are awful is the bottom half though. 9 teams are ranked 98th or worse. South Carolina is ranked 90th and has 1 SEC win. So probably half the ACC would go winless or win 1 game if they played in the SEC. Truly awful.

 

[BlueSince92]

ACC is weird because it is simultaneously better and worse than you think it is.

They have 3 pretty legit teams in Duke, Clemson and Louisville. Then a few bubbly quality teams in SMU, UNC, Wake and Pitt.

Where they really are awful is the bottom half though. 9 teams are ranked 98th or worse. South Carolina is ranked 90th and has 1 SEC win. So probably half the ACC would go winless or win 1 game if they played in the SEC. Truly awful.

Auburn legit?

Hellaciously.

Auburn ACC?

Not so much.

 

[UKBB4Ever]

Those numbers make them look like who they are. A bad team.

They are a bad team in any conference and in any year.

 

[St.PatterSoN-54-]

But was it a quad 1 win?

 

[SemperFiCat]

IDK. People can try to talk up Oklahoma all they want in an attempt to sugar coat it. I didn't see a pretty darn good Oklahoma team. I saw a mediocre team that played desperate. I thought Kentucky just looked pretty terrible on both sides of the ball, and I don't think it had to do with how good Oklahoma is. Personally, outside of Oweh's heroics, I thought that was a bad Kentucky team I saw play a late February game. Zero Offensive flow, and everyone simply lost on Defense, still. Just my opinion. I was really liking this team, but I didn't get a warm and fuzzy about the guys last night.

 

[CondorCat]

Oklahoma is a legit Q1 win. They were 13-0 in their out-of-conference games with wins over Arizona, Michigan, and Louisville. Then they proceeded to lose their first four SEC games and never really got on track in the tough SEC.

 

[G-PIP]

I’ve got a friend who almost always says UK’s opponent “sucks” whether we win or lose. Usually this is based on little more than the fact that they lost a game somewhere along the line that they were favored in. He never played competitively, but like many in KY he played a lot of pickup and has watched UK religiously for decades. However, he doesn’t seem to have much of a clue as to any factors affecting a game, or at least he never expresses any. He just basically looks at whether UK won by more than they were favored. If so, still no credit – regardless of the situation, the energy or desperation of the other team, etc. - because that was what they were supposed to do. If UK loses or doesn’t cover the spread, then Pope/Calipari/etc. were “outcoached” and/or “this team sucks.” Morale of the story: my friend doesn’t appreciate the intricacies of the game and how hard it is to win against high major teams on the road or even at home. There are a lot of really good college players and high-level athletes out there. Some maybe one-dimensional and will never play professionally, but seriously impactful in their role. The difference in teams is generally that the best teams have more good players, but not necessarily the “best” player on a particular night. Any win against most Div. I opponents, and especially in the SEC this year, is an accomplishment to be praised if you have any kind of understanding of the game.

 

[gharding07]

Unfortunately they probably won't make the tournament. Their last 3 games are tough. This game was there last shot to get in

 

[JFCats22]

Any win in the SEC is a good win. However, UK is supposed to beat teams like Oklahoma. They have been a pretty solid team this season but they were not good last night at all.

We need to end the SEC season by getting healthy, beating LSU and Mizzou and playing Auburn tough. If that happens then I will start to believe this team is capable of doing something in March.

 

[yoshukai]

They're very inconsistent. Can beat good teams and lose to bad ones.

Us or them , lol

 

[Cobb4uk]

I’ve got a friend who almost always says UK’s opponent “sucks” whether we win or lose. Usually this is based on little more than the fact that they lost a game somewhere along the line that they were favored in. He never played competitively, but like many in KY he played a lot of pickup and has watched UK religiously for decades. However, he doesn’t seem to have much of a clue as to any factors affecting a game, or at least he never expresses any. He just basically looks at whether UK won by more than they were favored. If so, still no credit – regardless of the situation, the energy or desperation of the other team, etc. - because that was what they were supposed to do. If UK loses or doesn’t cover the spread, then Pope/Calipari/etc. were “outcoached” and/or “this team sucks.” Morale of the story: my friend doesn’t appreciate the intricacies of the game and how hard it is to win against high major teams on the road or even at home. There are a lot of really good college players and high-level athletes out there. Some maybe one-dimensional and will never play professionally, but seriously impactful in their role. The difference in teams is generally that the best teams have more good players, but not necessarily the “best” player on a particular night. Any win against most Div. I opponents, and especially in the SEC this year, is an accomplishment to be praised if you have any kind of understanding of the game.

Wow!! Your either an old timer who played years ago, or a former point guard, may be both. I support all your valuable points, thanks.

 

[aceman509]

Any win in the SEC is a good win. However, UK is supposed to beat teams like Oklahoma. They have been a pretty solid team this season but they were not good last night at all.

We need to end the SEC season by getting healthy, beating LSU and Mizzou and playing Auburn tough. If that happens then I will start to believe this team is capable of doing something in March.

I think you're underrating Missouri quite a bit. Out of the Auburn and Missouri game the Auburn game is more winnable.

 

[Ugoff]

Gimpy roster, -3.5, on the road, charged game. I'm thrilled to get another Q1 win.

 

[fatguy87]

I agree that Bama is a matchup nightmare for us. Our guys do tend to show up when the bright lights are on though.

Bama has kinda felt like playing against Florida in 2014. They are good and expose our weaknesses.

We almost nipped Florida in the SEC tournament championship that season. Maybe we will have better fortune against Bama in a 3rd matchup.

 

[Bleedin Blue in Ohio]

Best NBA talent on the court last night was Oklahoma's Jeremiah Fears. The Cats are still dealing with adversity with Jaxson Robinson having to leave the game again with his injury. On the road is always tough. Overall, UK is a deeper more talented team. On a neutral court I would expect UK to win by a few baskets. But on the road in a hostile environment, it was good to see the Cats step up and gut out a tough win.

There are things they need to improve. Overall team defense has to get better. Cannot constantly give up 80+ and expect to win every contest. Last year's team's lack of defense was its Achilles heel. Playing defense is the difference between winning multiple games in the SEC and NCAA tournament and making an early exit. Just ask the 2023/2024 team.

 

[JFCats22]

I think you're underrating Missouri quite a bit. Out of the Auburn and Missouri game the Auburn game is more winnable.

No it's not. Mizzou is a bad defensive team (only slightly better than us). Except for Duke this year, Auburn has the highest rated KenPom score in history.

 

[TM2013]

The whiny little negative nancies gotta find something to complain about or they don't know what to do with themselves. Absolutely massive win, anyone that says otherwise is a miserable tool.

 

[ImTheVillageIdiot]

The whiny little negative nancies gotta find something to complain about or they don't know what to do with themselves. Absolutely massive win, anyone that says otherwise is a miserable tool.

It’s almost like many of them have agendas that do not align with fans who support the program.

 

[CincinnatiWildcat]

Any computer ranking thats worth anything, which is pretty much all of them used in this composite, adjust for opponent strength and pace. If you play a softer schedule then you're going to get punished if you aren't winning all of your games by double digits

Sure they may adjust for that, but them having an adjustment and that adjustment being accurate are two very different things. I know for years we had people on here complaining about how much the computers loved Gonzaga for this exact reason.

 

[wkycatfan]

I think you're underrating Missouri quite a bit. Out of the Auburn and Missouri game the Auburn game is more winnable.

I also think Auburn is more winnable than @Missouri.

 

[Blueisbest]

Oklahoma, while not elite, is a decent team with a few nice pieces. They have 2 or 3 players that would contribute on pretty much any team. They just don't have enough pieces and a mediocre at best coach to compete at a higher level. That was a solid road victory against a desperate team.

 

[bbncal02]

They aren’t bad but they are great either. That being said ANY win on the road in the hardest league in America in any sport is a good win. We take it and move on.

 

[bbncal02]

I also think Auburn is more winnable than @Missouri.

Maybe. I think Auburn beats our doors off and we get the Mizzou game.

 

[catsfanbgky]

But was it a quad 1 win?

Yes, on the road, they was as of today are ranked 50 in the net (if you are talking about Oklahoma). On the road, any team 75 and under is a quad 1 win. Only 1 game left that is not a quad 1 game, LSU. At home, it is a quad 3. game. LSU is 80th in NET.

Guidelines for Quad 1-4 (opponent rankings)
Quad 1 @ home 1-30 / Neutral floor 1-50 / Away 1-75
Quad 2 @ home 31-75 / Neutral floor 51-100 / Away 76-135
Quad 3 @ Home 76-100 / Neutral floor 101-200 / Away 135-240
Quad 4 @ Home 161-353 / Neutral floor 201-353 / Away 241-353

Oklahoma as of today Net 50 (1-75 is quad 1). As long as Oklahoma doesn't fall below 75 (they won't) it will stay a Quad 1 win.

Remaining schedule Quad status :
Auburn (Home0 Net rank is 1, so it will be a Quad 1A.

LSU (Home) LSU is ranked 80th, so a Quad 3 game. IF they could some how get to 75 or under, it would move to a Quad 2 win (not likely), they have a murderous remaining 3 games. (@ Miss. State / @ UK / v/s Texas A&M).

We do need them to beat A&M, maybe even Miss. State just for SEC finishing order. If they was to win those 2, they may bump below 75, MAYBE. That would be 2 quad 1 wins, and losing to UK would be a Quad 1 loss and not hurt them. UK is 14th in NET currently. Miss. State is 30th, A&M 20th. The away game v/s Miss State would actually be a Quad 1A game. Home game with A&M would be a Quad 1B. UK loss a Quad 1A loss. So with a Quad 1A win, Quad 1B win and a Quad 1A loss, they may be able to get inside 75 Net ranking, be close.

Missouri (Away) Quad 1, Missouri's Net ranking is 12, so it will be a Quad 1A like Auburn will be.

I think this is the guidelines for 1A and 1B wins :
Quad 1A guide - Home game - 1-10 / Neutral 11-25 / Away 12-40
Quad 1B guide - Home game 11-30 / Neutral 31-50 / Away 51-75

 

[The_Answer1313]

They are a fringe top 50 Kenpom team. A fringe NCAA tournament team.

But if that's the team towards the bottom of your conference, it's a great conference.

It was a road game.

We were only favored by what 2 points? 3 points?