Colorado Joining the Big 12
- Thread starter UKnCincy
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Shouldn't have left, but they won't make that mistake again.... (maybe)
Rumor is the Arizona schools are looking at Big12 too. Oregon and Washington could get an invite to Big10, but looking like Oregon State and Washington State alone withe the California schools could be in trouble as for as big-time football goes.
That's easy. Neon Deion is a generally popular, walking media headline. Denver-Boulder is a lucrative media market. There is corporate money in CO. If properly dealt with, CO corporations can be accessed for money to resurrect Univ. of CO, which is not a bad school. The B12 and the PAC12 are obviously in trouble and reshffling their remaining cards. We can say this much. The PAC12 is losing media markets while the Big12 is obviously alert to remaining high profile in big markets like Denver, Houston, and Dallas. That suggests the PAC12 will probably fall apart faster than other Power 5 conferences. Even the ACC is not in as much trouble as the PAC12.
A couple of caveats here:
1. Nobody expects Deion to stay more than 3 or so years. If he's successful at CU, he'll bolt for a better college or, perhaps, a pro job. He's not staying in CO for the long-term. Once he's gone, will CU be able to maintain whatever momentum DS has managed to create (which the jury's out on this point)? It's a good move for CU. Not sure it makes the B12 any better 5 years down the road. Short term with the eye of CFB on Deion? Yes.
2. Denver is a big market - for pro sports. College sports are hardly an afterthought here (I live in the Denver area). It's 85% or more Broncos year-round with the Nuggets, Avalanche and Rockies coverage picking up the slack during their seasons/draft/free agency. Prior to Sanders arriving, there was almost no coverage whatsoever of CU sports of any kind. Certainly, the interest level has picked up (although running the entire team off has soured a few on Deion). Referring to #1, when Sanders leaves and the program slips below .500 again, I'd expect next to no coverage in the Denver metro area to resume.
So, in 2024, the B12 will be: CU, KS, KSU, ISU, OkSt, Baylor, TCU, Cincy, Houston, BYU? Is that right? Did I miss a school or two? Doesn't exactly scream 'major conference', does it? Even if AZ and ASU join, not exactly a top tier program among the group. I guess in basketball, KS, Baylor and Houston give it some cred. But, football? Not really a big name program that will draw TV viewers from across the nation, is there?
The PAC12 is losing CO, SoCal, and OR. The Big12 lost NE, TX, and OK. Both are in trouble because these are the times of major conference chaos. The SEC and B10 are winning. So, which is managing itself more strategically, Big12 or PAC12? I say Big12. You are speculating about Deion. You don't know what he will do, or whether he will even be up to it physically. But that isn't the point. The point is that the Big12 picks up the Denver/Boulder media market and the PAC12 loses it. Your opinion that the Denver media market won't help the Big12 is not logical and ignores the number of new households to which the Big 12 gains access.
I am not making a case that the Big12 is prospering. Never implied that, so I am sorry you didn't understand what I am saying. Losing TX and OK obviously hurt. But losing TX and OK did not actually cost the B12 media markets. B12 still controls the media market in the state of TX, they still have OK St in the OK City area, and adding Houston to their media footprint was a big win for them. There are only so many TVs in the US, and taking CO back gives the B12 access to more of them. SEC and B10 are winning, but B12 is in a better strategic position now than ACC or PAC12 going forward. You missed this, but B12 also has UCF now, which gives them the Orlando/central FL TV market and gets them into the Disney inner sanctum (since UCF's Board is essentially controlled by Disney). B12 can also pick off more PAC12 schools, such as the AZ schools, as the PAC12 continues to crumble.
R, CO has had 30+ years to be meaningful. I doubt Neon is close to enough to turning around. Imo, State of CO is sorta like CA, too many other things to do than care about football. Guess we'll see.
Maybe it’s just that the Big XI is the only conference making moves but it feels like they are doing a good job of setting themselves up for survival and success in a P2 world.
They won’t be P2 but they have good teams with strong followings. What the new BigXI is missing was bigger markets as even though they are in Texas the BigXI teams within Texas only have a small amount of the market. So this feels like a move to both take advantage of a possible revival under Deion of a once good football program while also having the potential to gain a large market.
I don’t think CU will all the sudden become hugely popular in Denver but out of the choices left I think it’s a good move for the BigXI.
At the same time the ACC is too scared to make any moves cause it might mess up the GOR so they seem good with a slow death. The PAC12 can’t get a TV deal and keep losing schools. They have got to expand before the TV deal. They are down to 9: Zona, ASU, Stanford, Cal, Utah, Oregon St, Oregon, Wash St, Washington. With 4 more of those members having 1 foot out the door. No network or service is going to pay for that lineup.
They won’t be P2 but they have good teams with strong followings. What the new BigXI is missing was bigger markets as even though they are in Texas the BigXI teams within Texas only have a small amount of the market. So this feels like a move to both take advantage of a possible revival under Deion of a once good football program while also having the potential to gain a large market.
I don’t think CU will all the sudden become hugely popular in Denver but out of the choices left I think it’s a good move for the BigXI.
At the same time the ACC is too scared to make any moves cause it might mess up the GOR so they seem good with a slow death. The PAC12 can’t get a TV deal and keep losing schools. They have got to expand before the TV deal. They are down to 9: Zona, ASU, Stanford, Cal, Utah, Oregon St, Oregon, Wash St, Washington. With 4 more of those members having 1 foot out the door. No network or service is going to pay for that lineup.
Don't know anything about this guy but he tweeded this out
Keaton It Real
@KeatonItReal_
My sources tell me that one more school from the PAC 12 is coming to the Big XII by the end of the week. Same source that told me Colorado was happening this week, on Monday. This school will surprise you.
Keaton It Real
@KeatonItReal_
My sources tell me that one more school from the PAC 12 is coming to the Big XII by the end of the week. Same source that told me Colorado was happening this week, on Monday. This school will surprise you.
I agree the B12 has done better than the Pac12, but that bar is pretty low. Also, think they're being aggressive trying to salvage their standing as a P5 conference. ACC is doing nothing and will almost assuredly be left behind. Pac12 looks to be on its last leg as far as a P5 football conference.
You obviously don't live anywhere near Denver if you think gaining the Denver market is a big deal. There is just not much/any interest in college sports. You can say I'm wrong but I live here and I'm telling you it does not exist. It is much higher than previous years due to Deion's arrival, but again, it was almost zero the past 2-3 years. I'd be willing to bet that 3 years is all he'll stay at the longest. Local sports radio has been saying this all along since the announcement that he was coming. Could change, of course.
If you think the remnants of the B12 still in TX 'controls the TX market', I just don't know what to tell you. Also, lived in Houston and UT and A&M following >>>>>> Houston, Baylor, TCU combined in the Houston area, notwithstanding the Texans, Rockets, Astros >>>>>> Houston Cougar anything. Just because you have access to 7 million TVs in Houston (or 3 million in Denver, for that matter) doesn't mean any of them are tuned in and watching. I don't know if the data is published anywhere, but I can't imagine the affiliates in TX are willing to pay the same for B12 games now as they were paying when TX and OK were going to be a part of the conference for the long term. Lower fees would suggest that there won't be nearly as many eyes on B12 in the future, wouldn't it?
UCF may make some inroads into FL but, c'mon, UF, FSU and The U have orders of magnitude more regional and national interest than does UCF. Again, just because you have so many TVs in the area doesn't mean any of them will be watching. When I had cable, I had probably 50 or more stations that I literally never watched a single second of their programming. They had access to my TV but it did not help them one iota. Don't see any difference.
You and I have two fundamentally different concepts about what drives conference expansion. I believe $$ drive conference expansion, and TV network contracts put the $$ on the table. They are planning 10-20 years ahead. Most of the present circumstances you are discussing are not on their radar. I believe you are arguing issues that do not primarily drive conference expansion and you are grossly underestimating the B12 footprint. The B12 lost TX and OK, and that hurts. But they are beating the socks off the PAC12 in terms of strategic planning and moves beyond that change. We will see what happens. The subject has been thoroughly discussed.
Per Brett McMurphy of the Action Network, the Big 12 intends to add between one and three schools to join Colorado in 2024. His report stated that the Big 12 is first seeking out other Pac-12 schools.
Don't see how PAC whatever it is can stay revelant as a football conference. 100% USC, CO, and UCLA gone. Arizona State and Arizona are looking to follow CO. Oregon and Washington will jump at an offer from just about anyone. Utah is a good program, but are they attractive enough to get into Big12 or 10? Stanford and Cal bring great academics, something the Big10 might bring along. I don't see a place for Wash St or Oregon St to get an invite. ACC has 2 good programs, 4-5 decent programs and tied into a media rights deal forc12-13 more years. I don't know enough about contract law ro know this, but how can the discovery the conference and just join/start another? There are liabilities signed by their representatives. I am sure the courts will decide, a crusher would be an injunction stopping former ACC teams from playing until the action was settled. The death penalty for an entire conference
They dont sell the market based on who is watching what channel. People got paid based on you having access to their team/market/channel. They sell the market based on subscribed TV's. They repeatedly told us this during the first realignment. It's why we were told FSU wouldn't join UF, UK wouldn't join UL, etc. No matter who had the (immeasurable) bigger share of eyes the SEC already had the market.
Maybe some are too young to remember the Charles Johnson and Kordell Stewart days.There are a dozen teams or more between the conferences flapping in the wind with more football success than all those combined. Hell the guys up 65 have 3 major bowl wins and a Heisman in 30 years and I wasnt including them in the 12. Lots of primo schools still sitting there wondering what is going on with very little control. We are watching greed run rampant and traditions be damned.
The problem the Big 12 and ACC is going to have is money. I don’t see either of them being able to negotiate enough TV contract money for their members to be competitive with the SEC or Big 10.
NIL might allow them to attract players but overall athletics spending is going to be less. Maybe it evens up when TV contracts are due for expiration for everyone.
NIL might allow them to attract players but overall athletics spending is going to be less. Maybe it evens up when TV contracts are due for expiration for everyone.
Maybe the best example yet of institutional greed. I doubt the school benefits financially and athletically as much as the Colorado president benefits in a 2nd move like this.
Their goal isn't to catch Big 10/SEC. It is to be the next best thing, bigger $$ than ACC & Pac 12 (9). And to pick off Pac 12 (9) and ACC schools when a new target comes available.
ACC schools are locked in together on a death march. The legal backing of their grant of rights tv money contract is too strong to break. And their ESPN TV contract can't be renegotiated for over 10 more yrs. The Big 12 has already signed a new TV deal, getting paid more than the ACC, and will be going back for another new deal in 5 yrs for yet another raise.
And the PAC-12 (9) has lost its two most popular teams, others thinking about leaving, and no colleges of note to poach… so they can’t even find a TV deal at all, much less a good one. Two opposite but equal death marches.
Money is key and all these institutions of higher learning care about anymore. One big thing to consider is what Stanford does. They have an endowment that's bigger than the other 11 schools combined. They will likely be doing the leading and perhaps behind the scenes they are doing so unsuccessfully.
yardbarker.com/college_football/articles/paul_finebaum_says_its-time_to_administer_the_pac_12_its_last_rites/s1_13132_39069148
They have to. Our president just wiped out all student loan det .That's alot of lost money for university's. Who eats that? I really don't know.
Whoever is the lender which is almost never the university. Federal govt or private lenders. Wiping out student loan debt isn’t hurting the universities.
I think unis took a hit during COVID financially, but I believe they are on the rebound and doing fine.
The athletics tv deal money stays in the athletic department at almost all universities.
It is China Joe Biden's intention for US taxpayers to eat the full expense for his plans to cancel student loan debt. This is another leftist political ploy for redistribution of wealth. China Joe wants to buy votes. US voters who pay taxes are statistically less likely to vote Democrat than voters who are in debt and paying little or no tax.
I grew up poor in Lexington and borrowed a whole lot of money to get my college degree and attend grad school. Now I hold several degrees and pay my taxes. I paid back all of my student loans on time. I'll be damned if I have any intention to pay for the educations of future doctors, lawyers, and politicians.
Come on now. It is only fair for all of those taxpayers that didn't go to college to be forced to pay for all those worthless humanities, philosophy and English degrees that have little or no market value or hope for return on investment. Perhaps they should remove colleges from the equation. We could just identify as anything we want.
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