OR extremely specific discussion if, like me, all you really want out of the playoffs is Tennessee...out of the playoffs.
Not even guessing at brackets or seeding in this particular part of the post, just wanting to see what's basically written in stone and who is likely to be in, leaving a bit of talk for the last 2 or 3 unknown teams.
Locks/Near Locks
Ohio State - I think they handle IU and Michigan fairly easily. A rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten title is irrelevant to their playoff chances.
Oregon - Same boat as the Buckeyes. They will handle Washington and be in the playoffs regardless of the outcome of the Big Ten title game.
Notre Dame - They've done enough to convince me they are not going to stumble against Army or @Southern Cal. Call me naive, but an 11-1 Irish team is in.
Boise State - Cakewalk to the MWC title. 12-1 and in the CFP.
Colorado or BYU - This is a 95% lock to be the Big XII championship game. The winner is in the CFP, the loser gets no consideration whatsoever.
Clemson or SMU or Miami - The ACC championship game winner is in, obviously. The other two will be left out.
Semi-educated guesses of confidence
Alabama - All they need is to beat a piss-poor Oklahoma team on the road and a piss-poor Auburn team at home and have Missouri beat either Miss St or Arkansas and they're in the SEC Title game against the winner of Texas/Texas A&M. I think they win the SEC Championship game. Insane.
Texas - They are in regardless. They're not losing to UK, so they finish with 2 losses at most.
Georgia - They get UMASS and GT at home. Don't give me this crap about the Yellowjackets pulling off a sneaky upset. Not happening. UGA is in the CFP.
Ole Miss - Please don't screw this up, guys. Win in Gainesville and then closeout your terrible rivals at home. Get in the CFP.
Penn State - Not in the most comfortable of spots. Not only do they need to win @ a tricksy Minnesota team this week, they need to win both that game and Maryland without much sweat. There are scenarios where an 11-1 Penn State could be left out, but I don't see that happening. I'm gonna give them the 11th CFP spot.
There we have 11 teams, including the 5 required conference champions. That leaves 1 at-large spot open for possibly 5 teams to argue over. Let's look at those:
Texas A&M: I posted in another thread that the only way a 3-loss SEC team is getting in is if they are the loser of the SEC title game. This is especially applicable to A&M. If they beat Texas but lose to Alabama in the title game, I think they are in. All 3 of their losses would be to top 12 teams, one in a compulsory title game.
Tennessee: Two losses, but the Arkansas one hurts big-time. That and an unfortunate set of tiebreakers.
Indiana: A one-loss Indiana team maybe gets in if they play Ohio State to single digits in Columbus. Anything worse and their SOS might drag them right out of the playoffs.
SMU and Miami: A 2-loss ACC team just can't compete with an SEC or Big Ten team with similar records. These guys are probably out.
Seeding
If it plays out with Colorado and Clemson winning their conferences and Texas A&M losing to Texas, I think these are your seeds:
#1 Ohio State vs #8 Georgia/#9 Notre Dame
#2 Alabama vs #7 Ole Miss/#10 Penn State
#3 Clemson vs #6 Oregon/#11 ??????
#4 Boise State vs #5 Texas/#12 Colorado
The committee would want to put UGA ahead of Ole Miss, but they wouldn't risk the SEC rematch of Bama/UGA in the semis. So the question would be: who gets #11, the final at-large spot? Is it Indiana, Tennessee, SMU, or Miami?
This is the absolutely the best thing to ever happen to the college football post-season. I don't even care about the guaranteed byes for the conference champions, it just adds to the charm/quirkiness of the system. More meaningful football!
Thoughts?
Not even guessing at brackets or seeding in this particular part of the post, just wanting to see what's basically written in stone and who is likely to be in, leaving a bit of talk for the last 2 or 3 unknown teams.
Locks/Near Locks
Ohio State - I think they handle IU and Michigan fairly easily. A rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten title is irrelevant to their playoff chances.
Oregon - Same boat as the Buckeyes. They will handle Washington and be in the playoffs regardless of the outcome of the Big Ten title game.
Notre Dame - They've done enough to convince me they are not going to stumble against Army or @Southern Cal. Call me naive, but an 11-1 Irish team is in.
Boise State - Cakewalk to the MWC title. 12-1 and in the CFP.
Colorado or BYU - This is a 95% lock to be the Big XII championship game. The winner is in the CFP, the loser gets no consideration whatsoever.
Clemson or SMU or Miami - The ACC championship game winner is in, obviously. The other two will be left out.
Semi-educated guesses of confidence
Alabama - All they need is to beat a piss-poor Oklahoma team on the road and a piss-poor Auburn team at home and have Missouri beat either Miss St or Arkansas and they're in the SEC Title game against the winner of Texas/Texas A&M. I think they win the SEC Championship game. Insane.
Texas - They are in regardless. They're not losing to UK, so they finish with 2 losses at most.
Georgia - They get UMASS and GT at home. Don't give me this crap about the Yellowjackets pulling off a sneaky upset. Not happening. UGA is in the CFP.
Ole Miss - Please don't screw this up, guys. Win in Gainesville and then closeout your terrible rivals at home. Get in the CFP.
Penn State - Not in the most comfortable of spots. Not only do they need to win @ a tricksy Minnesota team this week, they need to win both that game and Maryland without much sweat. There are scenarios where an 11-1 Penn State could be left out, but I don't see that happening. I'm gonna give them the 11th CFP spot.
There we have 11 teams, including the 5 required conference champions. That leaves 1 at-large spot open for possibly 5 teams to argue over. Let's look at those:
Texas A&M: I posted in another thread that the only way a 3-loss SEC team is getting in is if they are the loser of the SEC title game. This is especially applicable to A&M. If they beat Texas but lose to Alabama in the title game, I think they are in. All 3 of their losses would be to top 12 teams, one in a compulsory title game.
Tennessee: Two losses, but the Arkansas one hurts big-time. That and an unfortunate set of tiebreakers.
Indiana: A one-loss Indiana team maybe gets in if they play Ohio State to single digits in Columbus. Anything worse and their SOS might drag them right out of the playoffs.
SMU and Miami: A 2-loss ACC team just can't compete with an SEC or Big Ten team with similar records. These guys are probably out.
Seeding
If it plays out with Colorado and Clemson winning their conferences and Texas A&M losing to Texas, I think these are your seeds:
#1 Ohio State vs #8 Georgia/#9 Notre Dame
#2 Alabama vs #7 Ole Miss/#10 Penn State
#3 Clemson vs #6 Oregon/#11 ??????
#4 Boise State vs #5 Texas/#12 Colorado
The committee would want to put UGA ahead of Ole Miss, but they wouldn't risk the SEC rematch of Bama/UGA in the semis. So the question would be: who gets #11, the final at-large spot? Is it Indiana, Tennessee, SMU, or Miami?
This is the absolutely the best thing to ever happen to the college football post-season. I don't even care about the guaranteed byes for the conference champions, it just adds to the charm/quirkiness of the system. More meaningful football!
Thoughts?
